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Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Sherman Khoo, Dennis Prangle, Song Liu, Mark Beaumont

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for fast inference by querying it on new test observations. Because NPE is estimated under the training data distribution, it is susceptible to misspecification when observations deviate from the training distribution. Many robust SBI approaches address this by modifying NPE training or introducing error models, coupling robustness to the inference network and compromising amortization and modularity. We introduce minimum-distance summaries, a plug-in robust NPE method that adapts queried test-time summaries independently of the pretrained NPE. Leveraging the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a distance between observed data and a summary-conditional predictive distribution, the adapted summary inherits strong robustness properties from the MMD. We demonstrate that the algorithm can be implemented efficiently with random Fourier feature approximations, yielding a lightweight, model-free test-time adaptation procedure. We provide theoretical guarantees for the robustness of our algorithm and empirically evaluate it on a range of synthetic and real-world tasks, demonstrating substantial robustness gains with minimal additional overhead.

Minrui Luo, Zhiheng Zhang

Synthetic Nearest Neighbors (SNN) provides a principled solution to causal matrix completion under missing-not-at-random (MNAR) by exploiting local low-rank structure through fully observed anchor submatrices. However, its effectiveness critically relies on sufficient data availability within each treatment level, a condition that often fails in settings with multiple or complex treatments. In this work, we propose Mixed Synthetic Nearest Neighbors (MSNN), a new entry-wise causal identification estimator that integrates information across treatment levels. We show that MSNN retains the finite-sample error bounds and asymptotic normality guarantees of SNN, while enlarging the effective sample size available for estimation. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach, especially under data-scarce treatment levels.

Deep Learning · Attention Mechanisms

Zeru Shi, Zhenting Wang, Fan Yang, Qifan Wang, Ruixiang Tang

We investigate the origins of massive activations in large language models (LLMs) and identify a specific layer named the Massive Emergence Layer (ME Layer), that is consistently observed across model families, where massive activations first emerge and subsequently propagate to deeper layers through residual connections. We show that, within the ME Layer both the RMSNorm and the FFN parameters jointly contribute to the emergence of massive activations. Once formed, the massive activation token representation remains largely invariant across layers, reducing the diversity of hidden representations passed to the attention module. Motivated by this limitation, we propose a simple and effective method to reduce the rigidity of the massive activation token. Our approach consistently improves LLM performance across multiple tasks, including instruction following and math reasoning, in both training free and fine tuning settings. Moreover, we show that our method mitigates attention sinks by selectively weakening their influence, elucidating their origin at the hidden state level and shedding new light on principled mitigation strategies.

Applications · Time Series

Heng Zhou, Xin Sun, Chao LI

Real-world time series inherently exhibit complex temporal patterns. Within chaotic systems, significant mixing and entanglement occur between different time-varying modes. Given that time series exhibit distinctly different patterns at various sampling scales, downsampling to extract multiscale features is a common approach. However, conventional downsampling causes high-frequency components in the original signal, those exceeding the new Nyquist frequency, to undergo spectral folding. This erroneously introduces spurious low-frequency patterns, perceived as low-frequency noise, thereby leading to the ***aliasing problem***. To address this problem, we propose a Decomposition-Prevention-Fusion architecture framework called **DMANet**, which introduces the **D**ynamic **M**ultiscale **A**nti-Aliasing **Net**work. Specifically, DMANet comprises two key components: Multiscale Convolutional Downsampling, designed to capture temporal dependencies and inter-channel interactions, and an Anti-Aliasing Operation, which includes Pre-Sampling Anti-Aliasing Filtering and Post-Sampling Interpolation. These designs guarantee the fidelity of multiscale features before and after downsampling. We show that by mitigating the risk of aliasing, our proposed simple convolutional downsampling architecture achieves performance competitive with common baselines. Our codes are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DMANet.

Social Aspects · Everything Else

Yizhou Min, Yizhou Lu, Lanqi Li, Zhen Zhang, Jiaye Teng

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We demonstrate that the interval length might be deceptively improved through a counter-intuitive approach termed Prejudicial Trick (PT), while the coverage remains valid. Specifically, for any given test sample, PT probabilistically returns an interval, which is either null or constructed using an adjusted confidence level, thereby preserving marginal coverage. While PT potentially yields a deceptively lower interval length, it introduces practical vulnerabilities: the same input can yield completely different prediction intervals across repeated runs of the algorithm. We formally derive the conditions under which PT achieves these misleading improvements and provide extensive empirical evidence across various regression and classification tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a new metric interval stability which helps detect whether a new CP method implicitly improves the length based on such PT-like techniques.

Applications · Time Series

Lekai Qian, Haoyu Gu, Jingwei Zhao, Ziyu Wang

Tokenizing music to fit the general framework of language models is a compelling challenge, especially considering the diverse symbolic structures in which music can be represented (e.g., sequences, grids, and graphs). To date, most approaches tokenize symbolic music as sequences of musical events, such as onsets, pitches, time shifts, or compound note events. This strategy is intuitive and has proven effective in Transformer-based models, but it treats the regularity of musical time implicitly: individual tokens may span different durations, resulting in non-uniform time progression. In this paper, we instead consider whether an alternative tokenization is possible, where an uniform-length musical step (e.g., a beat) serves as the basic unit. Specifically, we encode all events within a single time step at the same pitch as one token, and group tokens explicitly by time step, which resembles a sparse encoding of a piano roll representation. We evaluate the proposed tokenization on music continuation and accompaniment generation tasks, comparing it with mainstream event-based methods. Results show improved musical quality and long-term structural coherence, while additional analyses confirm higher efficiency and more effective capture of long-range patterns with the proposed tokenization.

Social Aspects · Alignment

Yang Cai, Weiqiang Zheng

Aligning large language models (LLMs) to serve users with heterogeneous and potentially conflicting preferences is a central challenge for personalized and trustworthy AI. We formalize an ideal notion of *universal alignment* through *test-time scaling*: for each prompt, the model produces $k\ge 1$ candidate responses and a user selects their preferred one. We introduce *$(k,f(k))$-robust alignment*, which requires the $k$-output model to have win rate $f(k)$ against any other single-output model, and *asymptotic universal alignment (U-alignment)*, which requires $f(k)\to 1$ as $k\to\infty$. Our main result characterizes the optimal convergence rate: there exists a family of *single-output* policies whose $k$-sample product policies achieve U-alignment at rate $f(k)=\frac{k}{k+1}$, and no method can achieve a faster rate in general. We show that popular post-training methods, including Nash learning from human feedback (NLHF), can fundamentally underutilize the benefits of test-time scaling. Even though NLHF is optimal for $k=1$, sampling from the resulting (often deterministic) policy cannot guarantee win rates above $\tfrac{1}{2}$ except for an arbitrarily small slack. This stems from a lack of output diversity: existing alignment methods can collapse to a single majority-preferred response, making additional samples redundant. In contrast, our approach preserves output diversity and achieves the optimal test-time scaling rate. In particular, we propose a family of symmetric *multi-player alignment games* and prove that any symmetric Nash equilibrium policy of the $(k+1)$-player alignment game achieves the optimal $(k,\frac{k}{k+1})$-robust alignment. Finally, we provide theoretical convergence guarantees for self-play learning dynamics in these games and extend the framework to opponents that also generate multiple responses.

Jiajun Zhang, Jianke Zhang, Zeyu Cui, Jiaxi Yang, Lei Zhang, Zilei Wang, Qiang Liu, Liang Wang, Binyuan Hui, Junyang Lin

Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in code generation. However, their ability to create complex visualizations for scaled and structured data remains largely unevaluated and underdeveloped. To address this gap, we introduce **PlotCraft**, a new benchmark featuring 1k challenging visualization tasks that cover a wide range of topics, such as finance, scientific research, and sociology. The benchmark is structured around seven high-level visualization tasks and encompasses 48 distinct chart types. Crucially, it is the first to systematically evaluate both single-turn generation and multi-turn refinement across a diverse spectrum of task complexities. Our comprehensive evaluation of 23 leading LLMs on PlotCraft reveals obvious performance deficiencies in handling sophisticated visualization tasks. To bridge this performance gap, we develope **SynthVis-30K**, a large-scale, high-quality dataset of complex visualization code synthesized via a collaborative agent framework. Building upon this dataset, we develope **PlotCraftor**, a novel code generation model that achieves strong capabilities in complex data visualization with a remarkably small size. Across VisEval, PandasPlotBench, and our proposed PlotCraft, PlotCraftor shows performance comparable to that of leading proprietary approaches. Especially, on hard task, Our model achieves over 50\% performance improvement. We will release the benchmark, dataset, and code at \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PlotCraft-E320}{PlotCraft anonymous repository}.

General Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Zian Zhai, Fan Li, Xingyu Tan, Xiaoyang Wang, Wenjie Zhang

Vector Quantization (VQ) has recently emerged as a promising approach for learning discrete representations of graph-structured data. However, a fundamental challenge, i.e., codebook collapse, remains underexplored in the graph domain, significantly limiting the expressiveness and generalization of graph tokens. In this paper, we present the first empirical study and observe that codebook collapse consistently occurs when applying VQ to graph data, even with mitigation strategies proposed in vision or language domains. Moreover, we provide a diagnosis of collapse from data and optimization perspectives, showing that collapse is associated with graph data properties such as feature redundancy and connectivity density, and is further reinforced by the training dynamics of deterministic hard assignment. To address these issues, we propose RGVQ, a novel framework that integrates graph topology and feature similarity as explicit regularization signals to enhance codebook utilization and promote token diversity. RGVQ introduces soft assignments via Gumbel-Softmax reparameterization, ensuring that all codewords receive gradient updates. In addition, RGVQ incorporates a structure-aware contrastive regularization to penalize assigning the same token to dissimilar node pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RGVQ substantially improves codebook utilization and consistently boosts the performance of state-of-the-art graph VQ backbones across multiple downstream tasks, enabling more expressive and transferable graph token representations.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Chao Han, Yijuan Liang, Zihao Xuan, Daokuan Wu, Wei Zhang, Xiaoyu Shen

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications is increasingly limited by their high inference cost. While recent advances in dynamic token-level computation allocation attempt to improve efficiency by selectively activating model components per token, existing methods rely on greedy routing—a myopic execute-or-skip mechanism that often leads to irreversible information loss and suboptimal token selection. This paper introduces informed routing, a new paradigm that proactively addresses these issues. The key insight is to assess not only a token’s immediate importance but also its recoverability, i.e., how well its transformation can be approximated. To this end, we propose the Lightweight Feature Forecaster (LFF), a small predictive module that estimates a unit’s output before routing decisions are made. This enables a flexible execute-or-approximate policy that preserves model fidelity while drastically reducing computation. Extensive experiments show that informed routing consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across static and dynamic pruning approaches. We further present two practical inference pipelines: a pure-PyTorch implementation and a Triton-based custom operator, that translate these gains into real-world speedups, achieving practical acceleration and consistent improvement across various batch sizes.

Applications · Health / Medicine

Wenkang Jiang, Yuhang Liu, Yichao Cai, Erdun Gao, Jiayi Dong, Ehsan Abbasnejad, Lina Yao, Javen Qinfeng Shi

Single-cell perturbation modeling is fundamental for understanding and predicting cellular responses to genetic perturbations. However, existing approaches, from causal representation learning to foundation models, often struggle with an overlooked challenge: gene expression is dominated by perturbation-invariant information, while perturbation-specific signals are intrinsically sparse. As a result, learned representations either entangle invariant and perturbation-specific information, leading to spurious and non-generalizable predictors, or suppress perturbation-specific signals altogether, rendering them ineffective for prediction. To address this, we propose PerturbedVAE, a general framework designed to resolve this signal imbalance. The framework explicitly separates perturbation-specific information from dominant invariant structure and recovers causal representations to effectively utilize such information for prediction. We further provide an identifiability analysis that characterizes the conditions under which sparse perturbation effects can be reliably recovered, thereby clarifying how the framework can be concretely specified under such conditions. Empirically, PerturbedVAE achieves state-of-the-art performance on a widely used benchmark across multiple evaluation settings, yielding significant gains on out-of-distribution combinatorial predictions and uncovering interpretable perturbation-response programs.

Theory · Online Learning and Bandits

Mingyi Li, Taira Tsuchiya, Kenji Yamanishi

This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent regret bounds in the stochastic regime. We quantify MDP complexity using a first-order quantity and several new data-dependent measures for the adversarial regime, including a second-order quantity and a path-length measure, as well as variance-based measures for the stochastic regime. To adapt to these measures, we develop algorithms based on global optimization and policy optimization, both built on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with log-barrier regularization. For global optimization, our algorithms achieve first-order, second-order, and path-length regret bounds in the adversarial regime, and in the stochastic regime, they achieve a variance-aware gap-independent bound and a variance-aware gap-dependent bound that is polylogarithmic in the number of episodes. For policy optimization, our algorithms achieve the same data- and variance-dependent adaptivity, up to a factor of the episode horizon, by exploiting a new optimistic $Q$-function estimator. Finally, we establish regret lower bounds in terms of data-dependent complexity measures for the adversarial regime and a variance measure for the stochastic regime, implying that the regret upper bounds achieved by the global-optimization approach are nearly optimal.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Oran Ridel, Alon Peled-Cohen

We study *reward-free* and *reward-agnostic* exploration in episodic finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs), where an agent explores an unknown environment without observing external rewards. Reward-free exploration aims to enable $\epsilon$-optimal policies for *any* reward revealed after exploration, while reward-agnostic exploration targets $\epsilon$-optimality for rewards drawn from a small finite class. In the *reward-agnostic setting*, Li, Yan, Chen, and Fan (2024) achieve minimax sample complexity, but only for restrictively small accuracy parameter $\epsilon$. We propose a new algorithm that significantly relaxes the requirement on $\epsilon$. Our approach is novel and of technical interest by itself. Our algorithm employs an online learning procedure with carefully designed rewards to construct an exploration policy, which is used to gather data sufficient for accurate dynamics estimation and subsequent computation of an $\epsilon$-optimal policy once the reward is revealed. Finally, we establish a tight lower bound for *reward-free exploration*, closing the gap between known upper and lower bounds.

Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences

Wenhan Gao, Jingxiang Qu, Yi Liu

Diffusion models typically operate in fixed-dimensional metric spaces, whereas geometric molecular data vary in dimensionality because molecules differ in size (number of atoms). A common adaptation in diffusion models for geometric molecular generation is to use architectures that handle variable-sized inputs, such as graph neural networks and transformers. **However, these approaches ignore that molecular size also sets the spatial scale of atomic coordinates, which induces inconsistent generative trajectories across sizes.** In 3D molecular diffusion, generation can be seen as forming a coarse structure first and then refining atomic positions. Larger molecules form coarse structures earlier than smaller ones because their spatial scales are larger relative to the noise. This makes the generative process inconsistent across sizes, with trajectories driven by molecular size rather than by a unified generative pattern. We are the first to identify and analyze this size-induced inconsistency by decomposing denoising dynamics, showing how spatial scale shapes formation of both 3D structure and atom types. Based on this, we propose Scaling the Prior (StP), which rescales the prior distribution by molecular size to normalize learning and generation across sizes, harmonize denoising trajectories, and enable consistently high-quality molecules.

Addison J. Wu, Ryan Liu, Xuechunzi Bai, Thomas Griffiths

As large language models (LLMs) are adopted into frameworks that grant them the capacity to make real decisions, it is increasingly important to ensure that they are unbiased. In this paper, we argue that the predominant approach of simply removing existing biases from models is not enough. Using a paradigm from the psychology literature, we demonstrate that LLMs can spontaneously develop novel social biases about artificial demographic groups even when no inherent differences exist. These biases result in highly stratified task allocations, which are less fair than assignments by human participants and are exacerbated by newer and larger models. In social science, emergent biases like these have been shown to result from exploration-exploitation trade-offs, where the decision-maker explores too little, allowing early observations to strongly influence impressions about entire demographic groups. To alleviate this effect, we examine a series of interventions targeting model inputs, problem structure, and explicit steering. We find that explicitly incentivizing exploration most robustly reduces stratification, highlighting the need for better multifaceted objectives to mitigate bias. These results reveal that LLMs are not merely passive mirrors of human social biases, but can actively create new ones from experience, raising urgent questions about how these systems will shape societies over time.

Adam Karvonen, James Chua, Clément Dumas, Kit Fraser-Taliente, Subhash Kantamneni, Julian Minder, Euan Ong, Arnab Sen Sharma, Daniel Wen, Owain Evans 等

Large language model (LLM) activations are notoriously difficult to understand, with most existing techniques using complex, specialized methods for interpreting them. Recent work has proposed a simpler approach known as LatentQA: training LLMs to directly accept LLM activations as inputs and answer arbitrary questions about them in natural language. However, prior work has focused on narrow task settings for both training and evaluation. In this paper, we instead take a generalist perspective. We evaluate LatentQA-trained models, which we call Activation Oracles (AOs), in far out-of-distribution settings and examine how performance scales with training data diversity. We find that AOs can recover information fine-tuned into a model (e.g., biographical knowledge or malign propensities) that does not appear in the input text, despite never being trained with activations from a fine-tuned model. Our main evaluations are four downstream tasks where we can compare to prior white- and black-box techniques. We find that even narrowly-trained LatentQA models can generalize well, and that adding additional training datasets (such as classification tasks and a self-supervised context prediction task) yields consistent further improvements. Our best AOs match or exceed white-box baselines on all four tasks and the best overall baseline on 3 of 4. These results suggest that diversified training to answer natural-language queries imparts a general capability to verbalize information about LLM activations.

Shengqu Cai, Weili Nie, Chao Liu, Julius Berner, Lvmin Zhang, Nanye Ma, Hansheng Chen, Maneesh Agrawala, Leonidas Guibas, Gordon Wetzstein 等

Scaling video generation from seconds to minutes faces a critical bottleneck: while short-video data is abundant and high-fidelity, coherent long-form data is scarce and limited to narrow domains. While multi-resolution image training works because higher resolution is largely an interpolation of the same underlying patch distribution, training across video lengths is fundamentally different: a longer video is an extrapolation that must invent new events and causal structure beyond the short-clip horizon. To address this, we propose a training paradigm where Mode Seeking meets Mean Seeking, decoupling local fidelity from long-term coherence from a unified representation via a Decoupled Diffusion Transformer. Our approach utilizes a global Flow Matching head trained via supervised learning on long videos to capture narrative structure, while simultaneously employing a local Distribution Matching head that aligns sliding windows to a frozen short-video teacher via a mode-seeking reverse-KL divergence. This strategy enables the synthesis of minute-scale videos that learns long-range coherence and motions from limited long videos via supervised flow matching, while inheriting local realism by aligning every sliding-window segment of the student to a frozen short-video teacher.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Tim Davidson, Benoit Seguin, Enrico Bacis, Cesar Ilharco, Hamza Harkous

Although many AI applications of interest require specialized multi-modal models, relevant data to train such models is inherently scarce or inaccessible. Filling these gaps with human annotators is prohibitively expensive, error-prone, and time-consuming, leading model builders to increasingly consider synthetic data as a scalable alternative. However, existing synthetic data generation methods often rely on manual prompts, evolutionary algorithms, or extensive seed data from the target distribution — limiting their scalability, explainability, and control. In this paper, we introduce Simula: a novel reasoning-driven framework for data generation and evaluation. It employs a seedless, agentic approach to generate synthetic datasets at scale, allowing users to define desired dataset characteristics through an explainable and controllable process that enables fine-grained resource allocation. We show the efficacy of our approach on a variety of datasets, rigorously testing both intrinsic and downstream properties. Our work (1) offers guidelines for synthetic data mechanism design, (2) provides insights into generating and evaluating synthetic data at scale, and (3) unlocks new opportunities for developing and deploying AI in domains where data scarcity or privacy concerns are paramount.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Nghia Nguyen, Trung Hieu Nguyen, Ang Li, Hoang Pham, Viet Anh Nguyen, Khoa Doan

The intrinsic capability to continuously learn a changing data stream is a desideratum of deep neural networks (DNNs). However, current DNNs suffer from catastrophic forgetting, which interferes with remembering past knowledge. To mitigate this issue, existing Continual Learning (CL) approaches often retain exemplars for replay, regularize learning, or allocate dedicated capacity for new tasks. This paper investigates an unexplored direction for CL called Retrospective Feature Estimation (RFE). RFE learns to reverse feature changes by aligning the features from the current trained DNN backward to the feature space of the old task, where performing predictions is easier. This retrospective process utilizes a chain of small feature mapping networks called retrospector modules. Empirical experiments on several CL benchmarks, including CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and Tiny ImageNet, demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of this novel CL direction compared to existing representative CL methods, motivating further research into retrospective mechanisms as a principled alternative for mitigating catastrophic forgetting in CL. Code is available at: https://github.com/mail-research/retrospective-feature-estimation.

Optimization · Everything Else

Zihao Zhao, Kai-Chia Mo, Shing-Hei Ho, Brandon Amos, Kai Wang

Differentiable optimization studies how to embed a mathematical program as a differentiable layer in machine learning pipelines. However, existing approaches typically rely on implicit differentiation, involving expensive Hessian computation while differentiating through optimality conditions. To address this challenge, we formulate the differentiable optimization problem as a bilevel optimization instance. We construct a new active-set Lagrangian as a proxy to compute an $\epsilon$-approximate hypergradient using only near-constant $O(\log (1/\epsilon))$ first-order information. We also show that applying this efficient hypergradient oracle to constrained bilevel optimization improves the overall gradient complexity to $\tilde{O}(\delta^{-1}\epsilon^{-3})$ to reach a $(\delta, \epsilon)$-Goldstein stationary point. We implement our method `FFOLayer`, as a drop-in Python library compatible with existing differentiable optimization solvers. Our algorithm shows significantly faster computation with similar convergence compared to other existing solvers. Our code is available [here](https://anonymous.4open.science/anonymize/FFOLayer-B78B).