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Optimization · Convex

Rahul Choudhary, Hanbaek Lyu

The classical static Schrödinger Bridge (SSB) problem, which seeks the most likely stochastic evolution between two marginal probability measures, has been studied extensively in the optimal transport and statistical physics communities, and more recently in machine learning communities in the surge of generative models. The standard approach to solve SSB is to first identify its Kantorovich dual and use Sinkhorn's algorithm to find the optimal potential functions. While the original SSB is only a strictly convex minimization problem, this approach is known to warrant linear convergence under mild assumptions. In this work, we consider a generalized SSB allowing any strictly increasing divergence functional, far generalizing the entropy functional $x\log x$ in the standard SSB. This problem naturally arises in a wide range of seemingly unrelated problems in entropic optimal transport, random graphs/matrices, and combinatorics. We establish Kantorovich duality and linear convergence of Sinkhorn's algorithm for the generalized SSB problem under mild conditions. Our results provide a new rigorous foundation for understanding Sinkhorn-type iterative methods in the context of large-scale generalized Schrödinger bridges.

Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning

Kevin Tan, Wei Fan, Yuting Wei

Actor-critic algorithms have become a cornerstone in reinforcement learning (RL), leveraging the strengths of both policy-based and value-based methods. Despite recent progress in understanding their statistical efficiency, no existing work has successfully learned an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with a sample complexity of $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ trajectories with general function approximation when strategic exploration is necessary. We address this open problem by introducing a novel actor-critic algorithm that attains a sample-complexity of $O(dH^5 \log|\mathcal{A}|/\epsilon^2 + d H^4 \log|\mathcal{F}|/ \epsilon^2)$ trajectories, and accompanying $\sqrt{T}$ regret when the Bellman eluder dimension $d$ does not increase with $T$ at more than a $\log T$ rate. Here, $\mathcal{F}$ is the critic function class, and $\mathcal{A}$ is the action space. Our algorithm integrates optimism, off-policy critic estimation targeting the optimal Q-function, and rare-switching policy resets. We extend this to the setting of Hybrid RL, where we show that initializing the critic with offline data yields sample efficiency gains, and also provide a \textit{non-optimistic} provably efficient actor-critic algorithm, addressing another open problem in the literature. Numerical experiments support our theoretical findings.

General Machine Learning · Supervised Learning

David Fleischer, David A Stephens, Archer Yang

We propose a computationally efficient alternative to generalized random forests (GRFs) for estimating heterogeneous effects in large dimensions. While GRFs rely on a gradient-based splitting criterion, which in large dimensions is computationally expensive and unstable, our method introduces a fixed-point approximation that eliminates the need for Jacobian estimation. This gradient-free approach preserves GRF’s theoretical guarantees of consistency and asymptotic normality while significantly improving computational efficiency. We demonstrate that our method achieves a speedup of multiple times over standard GRFs without compromising statistical accuracy. Experiments on both simulated and real-world data validate our approach. Our findings suggest that the proposed method is a scalable alternative for localized effect estimation in machine learning and causal inference applications.

General Machine Learning

Ansgar Lößer, Max Schlecht, Florian Schintke, Joel Witzke, Matthias Weidlich, Björn Scheuermann

Segmented regression is a statistical method that approximates a function $f$ by a piecewise function $\hat{f}$ using noisy data samples.*Min-$\epsilon$* approaches aim to reduce the regression function's mean squared error (MSE) for a given number of $k$ segments.An optimal solution for *min-$\epsilon$* segmented regression is found in $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ time (Bai & Perron, 1998; Yamamoto & Perron, 2013) for $n$ samples. For large datasets, current heuristics improve time complexity to $\mathcal{O}(n\log{n})$ (Acharya et al., 2016) but can result in large errors, especially when exactly $k$ segments are used.We present a method for *min-$\epsilon$* segmented regression that combines the scalability of top existing heuristic solutions with a statistical efficiency similar to the optimal solution. This is achieved by using a new method to merge an initial set of segments using precomputed matrices from samples, allowing both merging and error calculation in constant time.Our approach, using the same samples and parameter $k$, produces segments with up to 1,000 times lower MSE compared to Acharya et al. (2016) in about 100 times less runtime on data sets over $10^4$ samples.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Shuai Zhang, Chuan Zhou, Yang Liu, PENG ZHANG, Xixun Lin, Shirui Pan

Anomaly detection in continuous-time event sequences is a crucial task in safety-critical applications. While existing methods primarily focus on developing a superior test statistic, they fail to provide guarantees regarding the false positive rate (FPR), which undermines their reliability in practical deployments. In this paper, we propose CADES (Conformal Anomaly Detection in Event Sequences), a novel test procedure based on conformal inference for the studied task with finite-sample FPR control. Specifically, by using the time-rescaling theorem, we design two powerful non-conformity scores tailored to event sequences, which exhibit complementary sensitivities to different abnormal patterns. CADES combines these scores with Bonferroni correction to leverage their respective strengths and addresses non-identifiability issues of existing methods. Theoretically, we prove the validity of CADES and further provide strong guarantees on calibration-conditional FPR control. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets, covering various types of anomalies, demonstrate that CADES outperforms state-of-the-art methods while maintaining FPR control.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Matteo Zecchin, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone

We introduce adaptive learn-then-test (aLTT), an efficient hyperparameter selection procedure that provides finite-sample statistical guarantees on the population risk of AI models. Unlike the existing learn-then-test (LTT) technique, which relies on conventional p-value-based multiple hypothesis testing (MHT), aLTT implements sequential data-dependent MHT with early termination by leveraging e-processes. As a result, aLTT can reduce the number of testing rounds, making it particularly well-suited for scenarios in which testing is costly or presents safety risks. Apart from maintaining statistical validity, in applications such as online policy selection for offline reinforcement learning and prompt engineering, aLTT is shown to achieve the same performance as LTT while requiring only a fraction of the testing rounds.

General Machine Learning · Everything Else

Paulius Rauba, Qiyao Wei, Mihaela van der Schaar

Consider the problem of testing whether the outputs of a large language model (LLM) system change under an arbitrary intervention, such as an input perturbation or changing the model variant. We cannot simply compare two LLM outputs since they might differ due to the stochastic nature of the system, nor can we compare the entire output distribution due to computational intractability. While existing methods for analyzing text-based outputs exist, they focus on fundamentally different problems, such as measuring bias or fairness. To this end, we introduce distribution-based perturbation analysis, a framework that reformulates LLM perturbation analysis as a frequentist hypothesis testing problem. We construct empirical null and alternative output distributions within a low-dimensional semantic similarity space via Monte Carlo sampling, enabling tractable inference without restrictive distributional assumptions. The framework is (i) model-agnostic, (ii) supports the evaluation of arbitrary input perturbations on any black-box LLM, (iii) yields interpretable p-values; (iv) supports multiple perturbations via controlled error rates; and (v) provides scalar effect sizes. We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework across multiple case studies, showing how we can quantify response changes, measure true/false positive rates, and evaluate alignment with reference models. Above all, we see this as a reliable frequentist hypothesis testing framework for LLM auditing.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Tobias Pielok, Bernd Bischl, David Rügamer

Recent years have witnessed growing interest in semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) methods due to their ability to rapidly generate samples from complex distributions. However, since the likelihood of these samples is non-trivial to estimate in high dimensions, current research focuses on finding effective SIVI training routines. Although unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI) has largely been dismissed as imprecise and computationally prohibitive because of its inner MCMC loop, we revisit this method and show that UIVI's MCMC loop can be effectively replaced via importance sampling and the optimal proposal distribution can be learned stably by minimizing an expected forward Kullback–Leibler divergence without bias. Our refined approach demonstrates superior performance or parity with state-of-the-art methods on established SIVI benchmarks.

Theory

Catherine Chen, Jingyan Shen, Xinyu Yang, Lihua Lei

Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have led to their widespread usage for various tasks. The prevalence of LLMs in society implores the assurance on the reliability of their performance. In particular, risk-sensitive applications demand meticulous attention to unexpectedly poor outcomes, i.e., tail events, for instance, toxic answers, humiliating language, and offensive outputs. Due to the costly nature of acquiring human annotations, general-purpose scoring models have been created to automate the process of quantifying these tail events. This phenomenon introduces potential human-machine misalignment between the respective scoring mechanisms. In this work, we present a lightweight calibration framework for blackbox models that ensures the alignment of humans and machines with provable guarantees. Our framework provides a rigorous approach to controlling any distortion risk measure that is characterized by a weighted average of quantiles of the loss incurred by the LLM with high confidence. The theoretical foundation of our method relies on the connection between conformal risk control and a traditional family of statistics, i.e., L-statistics. To demonstrate the utility of our framework, we conduct comprehensive experiments that address the issue of human-machine misalignment.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Yifang Chen, Xiaoyu Li, Yingyu Liang, Zhenmei Shi, Zhao Song

We investigate the fundamental limits of transformer-based foundation models, extending our analysis to include Visual Autoregressive (VAR) transformers. VAR represents a big step toward generating images using a novel, scalable, coarse-to-fine ``next-scale prediction'' framework. These models set a new quality bar, outperforming all previous methods, including Diffusion Transformers, while having state-of-the-art performance for image synthesis tasks. Our primary contributions establish that, for single-head VAR transformers with a single self-attention layer and single interpolation layer, the VAR Transformer is universal. From the statistical perspective, we prove that such simple VAR transformers are universal approximators for any word-to-image Lipschitz functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that flow-based autoregressive transformers inherit similar approximation capabilities. Our results provide important design principles for effective and computationally efficient VAR Transformer strategies that can be used to extend their utility to more sophisticated VAR models in image generation and other related areas.

Theory · Learning Theory

Jing Qiao, Yu Liu, Zengzhe Chen, Mingyi Li, YUAN YUAN, Xiao Zhang, Dongxiao Yu

This paper investigates decentralized unlearning, aiming to eliminate the impact of a specific client on the whole decentralized system. However, decentralized communication characterizations pose new challenges for effective unlearning: the indirect connections make it difficult to trace the specific client's impact, while the dynamic topology limits the scalability of retraining-based unlearning methods.In this paper, we propose the first **P**rovable **D**ecentralized **U**nlearning algorithm under **D**ynamic **T**opologies called PDUDT. It allows clients to eliminate the influence of a specific client without additional communication or retraining. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees for PDUDT, showing it is statistically indistinguishable from perturbed retraining. Additionally, it achieves an efficient convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{T})$ in subsequent learning, where $T$ is the total communication rounds. This rate matches state-of-the-art results. Experimental results show that compared with the Retrain method, PDUDT saves more than 99\% of unlearning time while achieving comparable unlearning performance.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Xinyuan Fan, Bufan Li, Chenlei Leng, Weichi Wu

This paper introduces Graphon Attachment Network Models (GAN-M), a novel framework for modeling evolving networks with rich structural dependencies, grounded in graphon theory. GAN-M provides a flexible and interpretable foundation for studying network formation by leveraging graphon functions to define attachment probabilities, thereby combining the strengths of graphons with a temporal perspective. A key contribution of this work is a methodology for learning structural changes in these networks over time. Our approach uses graph counts—frequencies of substructures such as triangles and stars—to capture shifts in network topology. We propose a new statistic designed to learn changes in the resulting piecewise polynomial signals and develop an efficient method for change detection, supported by theoretical guarantees. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across various network settings, highlighting its potential for dynamic network analysis.

Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences

Charlie Tan, Joey Bose, Chen Lin, Leon Klein, Michael Bronstein, Alexander Tong

Scalable sampling of molecular states in thermodynamic equilibrium is a long-standing challenge in statistical physics. Boltzmann generators tackle this problem by pairing normalizing flows with importance sampling to obtain uncorrelated samples under the target distribution. In this paper, we extend the Boltzmann generator framework with two key contributions, denoting our framework Sequential Boltzmann Generators (SBG). The first is a highly efficient Transformer-based normalizing flow operating directly on all-atom Cartesian coordinates. In contrast to the equivariant continuous flows of prior methods, we leverage exactly invertible non-equivariant architectures which are highly efficient during both sample generation and likelihood evaluation. This efficiency unlocks more sophisticated inference strategies beyond standard importance sampling. In particular, we perform inference-time scaling of flow samples using a continuous-time variant of sequential Monte Carlo, in which flow samples are transported towards the target distribution with annealed Langevin dynamics. SBG achieves state-of-the-art performance w.r.t. all metrics on peptide systems, demonstrating the first equilibrium sampling in Cartesian coordinates of tri-, tetra- and hexa-peptides that were thus far intractable for prior Boltzmann generators.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Yunzhen Feng, Ariel Kwiatkowski, Kunhao Zheng, Julia Kempe, Yaqi Duan

As large language models increasingly drive real-world applications, aligning them with human values becomes paramount. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a key technique, translating preference data into reward models when oracle human values remain inaccessible. In practice, RLHF mostly relies on approximate reward models, which may not consistently guide the policy toward maximizing the underlying human values. We propose Policy-Interpolated Learning for Aligned Feedback (PILAF), a novel response sampling strategy for preference labeling that explicitly aligns preference learning with maximizing the underlying oracle reward. PILAF is theoretically grounded, demonstrating optimality from both an optimization and a statistical perspective. The method is straightforward to implement and demonstrates strong performance in iterative and online RLHF settings where feedback curation is critical.

Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences

Yi He, Yiming Yang, Xiaoyuan Cheng, Hai Wang, Xiao Xue, Boli Chen, Yukun Hu

Generating long-term trajectories of dissipative chaotic systems autoregressively is a highly challenging task. The inherent positive Lyapunov exponents amplify prediction errors over time.Many chaotic systems possess a crucial property — ergodicity on their attractors, which makes long-term prediction possible. State-of-the-art methods address ergodicity by preserving statistical properties using optimal transport techniques. However, these methods face scalability challenges due to the curse of dimensionality when matching distributions. To overcome this bottleneck, we propose a scalable transformer-based framework capable of stably generating long-term high-dimensional and high-resolution chaotic dynamics while preserving ergodicity. Our method is grounded in a physical perspective, revisiting the Von Neumann mean ergodic theorem to ensure the preservation of long-term statistics in the $\mathcal{L}^2$ space. We introduce novel modifications to the attention mechanism, making the transformer architecture well-suited for learning large-scale chaotic systems. Compared to operator-based and transformer-based methods, our model achieves better performances across five metrics, from short-term prediction accuracy to long-term statistics. In addition to our methodological contributions, we introduce new chaotic system benchmarks: a machine learning dataset of 140$k$ snapshots of turbulent channel flow and a processed high-dimensional Kolmogorov Flow dataset, along with various evaluation metrics for both short- and long-term performances. Both are well-suited for machine learning research on chaotic systems.

Social Aspects · Safety

Hengrui Lou, Zunlei Feng, Jinsong Geng, Erteng Liu, Jie Lei, Lechao Cheng, Jie Song, Mingli Song, Yijun Bei

With the rise of AIGC technologies, particularly diffusion models, highly realistic fake images that can deceive human visual perception has become feasible. Consequently, various forgery detection methods have emerged. However, existing methods treat the generation process of fake images as either a black-box or an auxiliary tool, offering limited insights into its underlying mechanisms. In this paper, we propose Spatio-Temporal Distribution Fitting Deviation (STD-FD) for AIGC forgery detection, which explores the generative process in detail. By decomposing and reconstructing data within generative diffusion models, initial experiments reveal temporal distribution fitting deviations during the image reconstruction process. These deviations are captured through reconstruction noise maps for each spatial semantic unit, derived via a super-resolution algorithm. Critical discriminative patterns, termed DFactors, are identified through statistical modeling of these deviations. Extensive experiments show that STD-FD effectively captures distribution patterns in AIGC-generated data, demonstrating strong robustness and generalizability while outperforming state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on major datasets. The source code is available at [this link](https://github.com/HengruiLou/STDFD).

General Machine Learning · Causality

Xinshuai Dong, Ignavier Ng, Boyang Sun, Haoyue Dai, Guangyuan Hao, Shunxing Fan, Peter Spirtes, Yumou Qiu, Kun Zhang

Recent advances have shown that statistical tests for the rank of cross-covariance matrices play an important role in causal discovery. These rank tests include partial correlation tests as special cases and provide further graphical information about latent variables. Existing rank tests typically assume that all the continuous variables can be perfectly measured, and yet, in practice many variables can only be measured after discretization. For example, in psychometric studies, the continuous level of certain personality dimensions of a person can only be measured after being discretized into order-preserving options such as disagree, neutral, and agree. Motivated by this, we propose Mixed data Permutation-based Rank Test (MPRT), which properly controls the statistical errors even when some or all variables are discretized. Theoretically, we establish the exchangeability and estimate the asymptotic null distribution by permutations; as a consequence, MPRT can effectively control the Type I error in the presence of discretization while previous methods cannot. Empirically, our method is validated by extensive experiments on synthetic data and real-world data to demonstrate its effectiveness as well as applicability in causal discovery (code will be available at https://github.com/dongxinshuai/scm-identify).

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Jiashun Liu, Johan Obando-Ceron, Pablo Samuel Castro, Aaron Courville, Ling Pan

Off-policy deep reinforcement learning (RL) agents typically leverage replay buffers for reusing past experiences during learning. This can help sample efficiency when the collected data is informative and aligned with the learning objectives; when that is not the case, it has the effect of ``polluting'' the replay buffer with data that can exacerbate optimization challenges in addition to wasting environment interactions due to redundant sampling. We argue that sampling these uninformative and wasteful transitions can be avoided by addressing the **sunk cost fallacy** which, in the context of deep RL, is the tendency towards continuing an episode until termination. To address this, we propose the *learn to stop* (**LEAST**) mechanism which uses statistics based on $Q$-values and gradient to guide early episode termination which helps agents recognize when to terminate unproductive episodes early. We demonstrate that our method improves learning efficiency on a variety of RL algorithms, evaluated on both the MuJoCo and DeepMind Control Suite benchmarks.

Social Aspects · Privacy

Conor Snedeker, Xinyu Zhou, Raef Bassily

We study model personalization under user-level differential privacy (DP) in the shared representation framework. In this problem, there are $n$ users whose data is statistically heterogeneous, and their optimal parameters share an unknown embedding $U^* \in\mathbb{R}^{d\times k}$ that maps the user parameters in $\mathbb{R}^d$ to low-dimensional representations in $\mathbb{R}^k$, where $k\ll d$. Our goal is to privately recover the shared embedding and the local low-dimensional representations with small excess risk in the federated setting. We propose a private, efficient federated learning algorithm to learn the shared embedding based on the FedRep algorithm in (Collins et al.,2021). Unlike (Collins et al., 2021), our algorithm satisfies differential privacy, and our results hold for the case of noisy labels. In contrast to prior work on private model personalization (Jain et al., 2021), our utility guarantees hold under a larger class of users' distributions (sub-Gaussian instead of Gaussian distributions). Additionally, in natural parameter regimes, we improve the privacy error term in (Jainet al., 2021) by a factor of $\widetilde{O}(dk)$. Next, we consider the binary classification setting. We present an information-theoretic construction to privately learn the shared embedding and derive a margin-based accuracy guarantee that is independent of $d$. Our method utilizes the Johnson-Lindenstrauss transform to reduce the effective dimensions of the shared embedding and the users' data. This result shows that dimension-independent risk bounds are possible in this setting under a margin loss.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Junbo Li, Zhangyang “Atlas” Wang, qiang liu

Offline preference alignment for language models such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is favored for its effectiveness and simplicity, eliminating the need for costly reinforcement learning. Various offline algorithms have been developed for different data settings, yet they lack a unified understanding. In this study, we introduce Pior-Informed Preference Alignment (PIPA), a unified, RL-free probabilistic framework that formulates language model preference alignment as a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) problem with prior constraints. This method effectively accommodates both paired and unpaired data, as well as answer and step-level annotations. We illustrate that DPO and KTO are special cases with different prior constraints within our framework. By integrating different types of prior information, we developed two variations of PIPA: PIPA-M and PIPA-N. Both algorithms demonstrate a $3\sim10\%$ performance enhancement on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks across all configurations, achieving these gains without additional training or computational costs compared to existing algorithms.