Recently, generative models have shown considerable promise in unsupervised time series anomaly detection. Nonetheless, the task of effectively capturing complex temporal patterns and minimizing false alarms becomes increasingly challenging when dealing with non-stationary time series, characterized by continuously fluctuating statistical attributes and joint distributions. To confront these challenges, we underscore the benefits of multi-resolution modeling, which improves the ability to distinguish between anomalies and non-stationary behaviors by leveraging correlations across various resolution scales. In response, we introduce a **M**ulti-Res**o**lution **De**composable Diffusion **M**odel (MODEM), which integrates a coarse-to-fine diffusion paradigm with a frequency-enhanced decomposable network to adeptly navigate the intricacies of non-stationarity. Technically, the coarse-to-fine diffusion model embeds cross-resolution correlations into the forward process to optimize diffusion transitions mathematically. It then innovatively employs low-resolution recovery to guide the reverse trajectories of high-resolution series in a coarse-to-fine manner, enhancing the model's ability to learn and elucidate underlying temporal patterns. Furthermore, the frequency-enhanced decomposable network operates in the frequency domain to extract globally shared time-invariant information and time-variant temporal dynamics for accurate series reconstruction. Extensive experiments conducted across five real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed MODEM achieves state-of-the-art performance and can be generalized to other time series tasks.
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Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Long-range sequence processing poses a significant challenge for Transformers due to their quadratic complexity in input length. A promising alternative is Mamba, which demonstrates high performance and achieves Transformer-level capabilities while requiring substantially fewer computational resources. In this paper we explore the length-generalization capabilities of Mamba, which we find to be relatively limited. Through a series of visualizations and analyses we identify that the limitations arise from a restricted effective receptive field, dictated by the sequence length used during training. To address this constraint, we introduce DeciMamba, a context-extension method specifically designed for Mamba. This mechanism, built on top of a hidden filtering mechanism embedded within the S6 layer, enables the trained model to extrapolate well even without additional training. Empirical experiments over real-world long-range NLP tasks show that DeciMamba can extrapolate to context lengths that are significantly longer than the ones seen during training, while enjoying faster inference. We will release our code and models.
Applications · Language, Speech and Dialog
Text-based games provide valuable environments for language-based autonomous agents. However, planning-then-learning paradigms, such as those combining Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and reinforcement learning (RL), are notably time-consuming due to extensive iterations. Additionally, these algorithms perform uncertainty-driven exploration but lack language understanding and reasoning abilities.In this paper, we introduce the Monte Carlo planning with Dynamic Memory-guided Large language model (MC-DML) algorithm. MC-DML leverages the language understanding and reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) alongside the exploratory advantages of tree search algorithms. Specifically, we enhance LLMs with in-trial and cross-trial memory mechanisms, enabling them to learn from past experiences and dynamically adjust action evaluations during planning. We conduct experiments on a series of text-based games from the Jericho benchmark. Our results demonstrate that the MC-DML algorithm significantly enhances performance across various games at the initial planning phase, outperforming strong contemporary methods that require multiple iterations. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our algorithm, paving the way for more efficient language-grounded planning in complex environments.
Applications · Time Series
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs or NODEs) excel at modeling continuous dynamical systems from observational data, especially when the data is irregularly sampled. However, existing training methods predominantly rely on numerical ODE solvers, which are time-consuming and prone to accumulating numerical errors over time due to autoregression. In this work, we propose VF-NODE, a novel approach based on the variational formulation (VF) to accelerate the training of NODEs. Unlike existing training methods, the proposed VF-NODEs implement a series of global integrals, thus evaluating Deep Neural Network (DNN)--based vector fields only at specific observed data points. This strategy drastically reduces the number of function evaluations (NFEs). Moreover, our method eliminates the use of autoregression, thereby reducing error accumulations for modeling dynamical systems. Nevertheless, the VF loss introduces oscillatory terms into the integrals when using the Fourier basis. We incorporate Filon's method to address this issue. To further enhance the performance for noisy and incomplete data, we employ the natural cubic spline regression to estimate a closed-form approximation. We provide a fundamental analysis of how our approach minimizes computational costs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach accelerates NODE training by 10 to 1000 times compared to existing NODE-based methods, while achieving higher or comparable accuracy in dynamical systems. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhaoHongjue/VF-NODE-ICLR2025.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Score-based diffusion models have recently emerged as state-of-the-art generativemodels for a variety of data modalities. Nonetheless, it remains unclear how toadapt these models to generate long multivariate time series. Viewing a timeseries as the discretisation of an underlying continuous process, we introduceSigDiffusion, a novel diffusion model operating on log-signature embeddingsof the data. The forward and backward processes gradually perturb and denoiselog-signatures while preserving their algebraic structure. To recover a signal fromits log-signature, we provide new closed-form inversion formulae expressing thecoefficients obtained by expanding the signal in a given basis (e.g. Fourier ororthogonal polynomials) as explicit polynomial functions of the log-signature.Finally, we show that combining SigDiffusions with these inversion formulaeresults in high-quality long time series generation, competitive with the currentstate-of-the-art on various datasets of synthetic and real-world examples.
High-quality preference data is essential for aligning foundation models with human values through preference learning. However, manual annotation of such data is often time-consuming and costly. Recent methods often adopt a self-rewarding approach, where the target model generates and annotates its own preference data, but this can lead to inaccuracies since the reward model shares weights with the target model, thereby amplifying inherent biases. To address these issues, we propose Anyprefer, a framework designed to synthesize high-quality preference data for aligning the target model. Anyprefer frames the data synthesis process as a cooperative two-player Markov Game, where the target model and the judge model collaborate together. Here, a series of external tools are introduced to assist the judge model in accurately rewarding the target model’s responses, mitigating biases in the rewarding process. In addition, a feedback mechanism is introduced to optimize prompts for both models, enhancing collaboration and improving data quality. The synthesized data is compiled into a new preference dataset, Anyprefer-V1, consisting of 58K high-quality preference pairs. Extensive experiments show that Anyprefer significantly improves model alignment performance across four main applications, covering 21 datasets, achieving average improvements of 18.55% in five natural language generation datasets, 3.66% in nine vision-language understanding datasets, 30.05% in three medical image analysis datasets, and 16.00% in four visuo-motor control tasks.
Applications · Chemistry and Drug Discovery
Proteomics is the large-scale study of proteins. Tandem mass spectrometry, as the only high-throughput technique for protein sequence identification, plays a pivotal role in proteomics research. One of the long-standing challenges in this field is peptide identification, which entails determining the specific peptide (sequence of amino acids) that corresponds to each observed mass spectrum. The conventional approach involves database searching, wherein the observed mass spectrum is scored against a pre-constructed peptide database. However, the reliance on pre-existing databases limits applicability in scenarios where the peptide is absent from existing databases. Such circumstances necessitate \emph{de novo} peptide sequencing, which derives peptide sequence solely from input mass spectrum, independent of any peptide database. Despite ongoing advancements in \emph{de novo} peptide sequencing, its performance still has considerable room for improvement, which limits its application in large-scale experiments. In this study, we introduce a novel \textbf{Re}trieval-based \emph{De \textbf{Novo}} peptide sequencing methodology, termed \textbf{ReNovo}, which draws inspiration from database search methods. Specifically, by constructing a datastore from training data, ReNovo can retrieve information from the datastore during the inference stage to conduct retrieval-based inference, thereby achieving improved performance. This innovative approach enables ReNovo to effectively combine the strengths of both methods: utilizing the assistance of the datastore while also being capable of predicting novel peptides that are not present in pre-existing databases. A series of experiments have confirmed that ReNovo outperforms state-of-the-art models across multiple widely-used datasets, incurring only minor storage and time consumption, representing a significant advancement in proteomics. Supplementary materials include the code.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Everything Else
The emergence of the foundation model era has sparked immense research interest in utilizing pre-trained representations for continual learning~(CL), yielding a series of strong CL methods with outstanding performance on standard evaluation benchmarks. Nonetheless, there are growing concerns regarding potential data contamination within the massive pre-training datasets. Furthermore, the static nature of standard evaluation benchmarks tends to oversimplify the complexities encountered in real-world CL scenarios, putting CL methods at risk of overfitting to these benchmarks while still lacking robustness needed for more demanding real-world applications. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a general framework to evaluate methods for Continual Learning on Dynamic Benchmarks (CLDyB). CLDyB continuously identifies inherently challenging tasks for the specified CL methods and evolving backbones, and dynamically determines the sequential order of tasks at each time step in CL using a tree-search algorithm, guided by an overarching goal to generate highly challenging task sequences for evaluation. To highlight the significance of dynamic evaluation on the CLDyB, we first simultaneously evaluate multiple state-of-the-art CL methods under CLDyB, resulting in a set of commonly challenging task sequences where existing CL methods tend to underperform. We intend to publicly release these task sequences for the CL community to facilitate the training and evaluation of more robust CL algorithms. Additionally, we perform individual evaluations of the CL methods under CLDyB, yielding informative evaluation results that reveal the specific strengths and weaknesses of each method.
Deep Learning · Robustness
Large language models are pre-trained on uncurated text datasets consisting of trillions of tokens scraped from the Web.Prior work has shown that: (1) web-scraped pre-training datasets can be practically poisoned by malicious actors; and (2) adversaries can compromise language models after poisoning fine-tuning datasets.Our work evaluates for the first time whether language models can also be \emph{compromised during pre-training}, with a focus on the persistence of pre-training attacks after models are fine-tuned as helpful and harmless chatbots (i.e., after SFT and DPO).We pre-train a series of LLMs from scratch to measure the impact of a potential poisoning adversary under four different attack objectives (denial-of-service, belief manipulation, jailbreaking, and prompt stealing), and across a wide range of model sizes (from 600M to 7B).Our main result is that poisoning only 0.1% of a model's pre-training dataset is sufficient for three out of four attacks to measurably persist through post-training. Moreover, simple attacks like denial-of-service persist through post-training with a poisoning rate of only 0.001%.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Representation Learning
Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.
Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is challenging as heterogeneous subsequence anomalies may occur. Reconstruction-based methods, which focus on learning normal patterns in the frequency domain to detect diverse abnormal subsequences, achieve promising results, while still falling short on capturing fine-grained frequency characteristics and channel correlations. To contend with the limitations, we introduce CATCH, a framework based on frequency patching. We propose to patchify the frequency domain into frequency bands, which enhances its ability to capture fine-grained frequency characteristics. To perceive appropriate channel correlations, we propose a Channel Fusion Module (CFM), which features a patch-wise mask generator and a masked-attention mechanism. Driven by a bi-level multi-objective optimization algorithm, the CFM is encouraged to iteratively discover appropriate patch-wise channel correlations, and to cluster relevant channels while isolating adverse effects from irrelevant channels. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets and 12 synthetic datasets demonstrate that CATCH achieves state-of-the-art performance. We make our code and datasets available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/CATCH.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. In this work, we present the time series pattern machine (TSPM), a model designed to excel in a broad range of time series tasks through powerful representation and pattern extraction capabilities. Traditional time series models often struggle to capture universal patterns, limiting their effectiveness across diverse tasks. To address this, we define multiple scales in the time domain and various resolutions in the frequency domain, employing various mixing strategies to extract intricate, task-adaptive time series patterns. Specifically, we introduce \method, a general-purpose TSPM that processes multi-scale time series using (1) multi-resolution time imaging (MRTI), (2) time image decomposition (TID), (3) multi-scale mixing (MCM), and (4) multi-resolution mixing (MRM) to extract comprehensive temporal patterns. MRTI transforms multi-scale time series into multi-resolution time images, capturing patterns across both temporal and frequency domains. TID leverages dual-axis attention to extract seasonal and trend patterns, while MCM hierarchically aggregates these patterns across scales. MRM adaptively integrates all representations across resolutions. TimeMixer++ achieves state-of-the-art performance across 8 time series analytical tasks, consistently surpassing both general-purpose and task-specific models. Our work marks a promising step toward the next generation of TSPMs, paving the way for further advancements in time series analysis.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. In this work, we present the time series pattern machine (TSPM), a model designed to excel in a broad range of time series tasks through powerful representation and pattern extraction capabilities. Traditional time series models often struggle to capture universal patterns, limiting their effectiveness across diverse tasks. To address this, we define multiple scales in the time domain and various resolutions in the frequency domain, employing various mixing strategies to extract intricate, task-adaptive time series patterns. Specifically, we introduce TimeMixer++, a general-purpose TSPM that processes multi-scale time series using (1) multi-resolution time imaging (MRTI), (2) time image decomposition (TID), (3) multi-scale mixing (MCM), and (4) multi-resolution mixing (MRM) to extract comprehensive temporal patterns. MRTI transforms multi-scale time series into multi-resolution time images, capturing patterns across both temporal and frequency domains. TID leverages dual-axis attention to extract seasonal and trend patterns, while MCM hierarchically aggregates these patterns across scales. MRM adaptively integrates all representations across resolutions. TimeMixer++ achieves state-of-the-art performance across 8 time series analytical tasks, consistently surpassing both general-purpose and task-specific models. Our work marks a promising step toward the next generation of TSPMs, paving the way for further advancements in time series analysis.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Time series anomaly detection plays a vital role in a wide range of applications. Existing methods require training one specific model for each dataset, which exhibits limited generalization capability across different target datasets, hindering anomaly detection performance in various scenarios with scarce training data. Aiming at this problem, we propose constructing a general time series anomaly detection model, which is pre-trained on extensive multi-domain datasets and can subsequently apply to a multitude of downstream scenarios. The significant divergence of time series data across different domains presents two primary challenges in building such a general model: (1) meeting the diverse requirements of appropriate information bottlenecks tailored to different datasets in one unified model, and (2) enabling distinguishment between multiple normal and abnormal patterns, both are crucial for effective anomaly detection in various target scenarios. To tackle these two challenges, we propose a General time series anomaly Detector with Adaptive Bottlenecks and Dual Adversarial Decoders (DADA), which enables flexible selection of bottlenecks based on different data and explicitly enhances clear differentiation between normal and abnormal series. We conduct extensive experiments on nine target datasets from different domains. After pre-training on multi-domain data, DADA, serving as a zero-shot anomaly detector for these datasets, still achieves competitive or even superior results compared to those models tailored to each specific dataset.
Applications · Time Series
Recently, leveraging pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for time series (TS) tasks has gained increasing attention, which involves activating and enhancing LLMs' capabilities. Many methods aim to activate LLMs' capabilities based on token-level alignment, but overlook LLMs' inherent strength in natural language processing — their deep understanding of linguistic logic and structure rather than superficial embedding processing. We propose Context-Alignment (CA), a new paradigm that aligns TS with a linguistic component in the language environments familiar to LLMs to enable LLMs to contextualize and comprehend TS data, thereby activating their capabilities. Specifically, such context-level alignment comprises structural alignment and logical alignment, which is achieved by Dual-Scale Context-Alignment GNNs (DSCA-GNNs) applied to TS-language multimodal inputs. Structural alignment utilizes dual-scale nodes to describe hierarchical structure in TS-language, enabling LLMs to treat long TS data as a whole linguistic component while preserving intrinsic token features. Logical alignment uses directed edges to guide logical relationships, ensuring coherence in the contextual semantics. Following the DSCA-GNNs framework, we propose an instantiation method of CA, termed Few-Shot prompting Context-Alignment (FSCA), to enhance the capabilities of pre-trained LLMs in handling TS tasks. FSCA can be flexibly and repeatedly integrated into various layers of pre-trained LLMs to improve awareness of logic and structure, thereby enhancing performance. Extensive experiments show the effectiveness of FSCA and the importance of Context-Alignment across tasks, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot forecasting, confirming that Context-Alignment provides powerful prior knowledge on context. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/tokaka22/ICLR25-FSCA.
Applications · Time Series
Diffusion-based denoising models have demonstrated impressive performance in probabilistic forecasting for multivariate time series (MTS). Nonetheless, existing approaches often model the entire data distribution, neglecting the variability in uncertainty across different components of the time series. This paper introduces a Diffusion-based Decoupled Deterministic and Uncertain ($\mathrm{D^3U}$) framework for probabilistic MTS forecasting. The framework integrates non-probabilistic forecasting with conditional diffusion generation, enabling both accurate point predictions and probabilistic forecasting. $\mathrm{D^3U}$ utilizes a point forecasting model to non-probabilistically model high-certainty components in the time series, generating embedded representations that are conditionally injected into a diffusion model. To better model high-uncertainty components, a patch-based denoising network (PatchDN) is designed in the conditional diffusion model. Designed as a plug-and-play framework, $\mathrm{D^3U}$ can be seamlessly integrated into existing point forecasting models to provide probabilistic forecasting capabilities. It can also be applied to other conditional diffusion methods that incorporate point forecasting models. Experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves over a 20\% improvement in both point and probabilistic forecasting performance in MTS long-term forecasting compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) probabilistic forecasting methods. Additionally, extensive ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of the $\mathrm{D^3U}$ framework.
Applications · Health
We present RelCon, a novel self-supervised Relative Contrastive learning approach for training a motion foundation model from wearable accelerometry sensors. First, a learnable distance measure is trained to capture motif similarity and domain-specific semantic information such as rotation invariance. Then, the learned distance provides a measurement of semantic similarity between a pair of accelerometry time-series, which we use to train our foundation model to model relative relationships across time and across subjects. The foundation model is trained on 1 billion segments from 87,376 participants, and achieves strong performance across multiple downstream tasks, including human activity recognition and gait metric regression. To our knowledge, we are the first to show the generalizability of a foundation model with motion data from wearables across distinct evaluation tasks.
Applications · Time Series
Many time series classification tasks, where labels vary over time, are affected by label noise that also varies over time. Such noise can cause label quality to improve, worsen, or periodically change over time. We first propose and formalize temporal label noise, an unstudied problem for sequential classification of time series. In this setting, multiple labels are recorded over time while being corrupted by a time-dependent noise function. We first demonstrate the importance of modeling the temporal nature of the label noise function and how existing methods will consistently underperform. We then propose methods to train noise-tolerant classifiers by estimating the temporal label noise function directly from data. We show that our methods lead to state-of-the-art performance under diverse types of temporal label noise on real-world datasets.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Current research in online time series forecasting (OTSF) faces two significant issues. The first is information leakage, where models make predictions and are then evaluated on historical time steps that have already been used in backpropagation for parameter updates. The second is practicality: while forecasting in real-world applications typically emphasizes looking ahead and anticipating future uncertainties, prediction sequences in this setting include only one future step with the remaining being observed time points. This necessitates a redefinition of the OTSF setting, focusing on predicting unknown future steps and evaluating unobserved data points. Following this new setting, challenges arise in leveraging incomplete pairs of ground truth and predictions for backpropagation, as well as in generalizing accurate information without overfitting to noise from recent data streams. To address these challenges, we propose a novel dual-stream framework for online forecasting (DSOF): a slow stream that updates with complete data using experience replay, and a fast stream that adapts to recent data through temporal difference learning. This dual-stream approach updates a teacher-student model learned through a residual learning strategy, generating predictions in a coarse-to-fine manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate its improvement in forecasting performance in changing environments. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yyalau/iclr2025_dsof.