Multivariate time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in contemporary web technologies. In contrast to conventional methods that involve creating dedicated models for specific time series application domains, this research advocates for a unified model paradigm that transcends domain boundaries. However, learning an effective cross-domain model presents the following challenges. First, various domains exhibit disparities in data characteristics, e.g., the number of variables, posing hurdles for existing models that impose inflexible constraints on these factors. Second, the model may encounter difficulties in distinguishing data from various domains, leading to suboptimal performance in our assessments. Third, the diverse convergence rates of time series domains can also result in compromised empirical performance. To address these issues, we propose UniTime for effective cross-domain time series learning. Concretely, UniTime can flexibly adapt to data with varying characteristics. It also uses domain instructions and a Language-TS Transformer to offer identification information and align two modalities. In addition, UniTime employs masking to alleviate domain convergence speed imbalance issues. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of UniTime in advancing state-of-the-art forecasting performance and zero-shot transferability.
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Time series Anomaly Detection (AD) plays a crucial role for web systems. Various web systems rely on time series data to monitor and identify anomalies in real time, as well as to initiate diagnosis and remediation procedures. Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have gained popularity in recent decades due to their superior de-noising capabilities, which are useful for anomaly detection. However, our study reveals that VAE-based methods face challenges in capturing long-periodic heterogeneous patterns and detailed short-periodic trends simultaneously. To address these challenges, we propose Frequency-enhanced Conditional Variational Autoencoder (FCVAE), a novel unsupervised AD method for univariate time series. To ensure an accurate AD, FCVAE exploits an innovative approach to concurrently integrate both the global and local frequency features into the condition of Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to significantly increase the accuracy of reconstructing the normal data. Together with a carefully designed "target attention" mechanism, our approach allows the model to pick the most useful information from the frequency domain for better short-periodic trend construction. Our FCVAE has been evaluated on public datasets and a large-scale cloud system, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. This confirms the practical applicability of our approach in addressing the limitations of current VAE-based anomaly detection models.
Delay-sensitive Web services are crucial applications in emerging low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks (LSNs). However, our real-world measurement study based on SpaceX's Starlink, the most widely used commercial LSN today, reveals that the endless and bursty packet losses over unstable LEO satellite links impose significant challenges on guaranteeing the quality of experience (QoE) of Web applications. We propose SatGuard, a distributed in-orbit loss recovery mechanism that can reduce user-perceived delay by completely concealing packet losses in the unstable and lossy LSN environment from endpoints. Specifically, SatGuard adopts a series of techniques to: (i) correctly migrate on-board packet buffer to support link-local retransmission under LEO dynamics; (ii) efficiently detect packet losses on satellite links; and (iii) ensure packet ordering for endpoints. We implement a SatGuard prototype, and conduct extensive trace-driven evaluations guided by public constellation information and real-world measurements. Our experiments demonstrate that, in comparison with other state-of-the-art approaches, SatGuard can significantly improve Web-based QoE, by reducing: (i) up to 48.3% of page load time for Web browsing; and (ii) up to 57.4% end-to-end communication delay for WebRTC.
Cyber-physical system sensors emit multivariate time series (MTS) that monitor physical system processes. Such time series generally capture unknown numbers of states, each with a different duration, that correspond to specific conditions, e.g., "walking" or "running" in human-activity monitoring. Unsupervised identification of such states facilitates storage and processing in subsequent data analyses, as well as enhances result interpretability. Existing state-detection proposals face three challenges. First, they introduce substantial computational overhead, rendering them impractical in resourceconstrained or streaming settings. Second, although state-of-the-art (SOTA) proposals employ contrastive learning for representation, insufficient attention to false negatives hampers model convergence and accuracy. Third, SOTA proposals predominantly only emphasize offline non-streaming deployment, we highlight an urgent need to optimize online streaming scenarios. We propose E2Usd that enables efficient-yet-accurate unsupervised MTS state detection. E2Usd exploits a Fast Fourier Transform-based Time Series Compressor (fftCompress) and a Decomposed Dual-view Embedding Module (ddEM) that together encode input MTSs at low computational overhead. Additionally, we propose a False Negative Cancellation Contrastive Learning method (fnccLearning) to counteract the effects of false negatives and to achieve more cluster-friendly embedding spaces. To reduce computational overhead further in streaming settings, we introduce Adaptive Threshold Detection (adaTD). Comprehensive experiments with six baselines and six datasets offer evidence that E2Usd is capable of SOTA accuracy at significantly reduced computational overhead. Our code is available at https://github.com/AI4CTS/E2Usd.
We propose the Burst-Induced Poisson Process (BPoP), a model designed to analyze time series data such as feeds or search queries. BPoP can distinguish between the slowly-varying regular activity of a stable audience and the bursty activity of a curious audience, often seen in viral threads. Our model consists of two hidden, interacting processes: a self-feeding process (SFP) that generates bursty behavior related to viral threads, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with step function intensity that is influenced by the bursts from the SFP. The NHPP models the normal background behavior, driven solely by the overall popularity of the topic among the stable audience. Through extensive empirical work, we have demonstrated that our model fits and characterizes a large number of real datasets more effectively than state-of-the-art models. Most importantly, BPoP can quantify the stable audience of media channels over time, serving as a valuable indicator of their popularity.
epiDAMIK 2024: The 7th International Workshop on Epidemiology meets Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
PDF ↗While the worst of COVID-19 pandemic has most likely passed us, an occurrence of equally devastating global pandemic or regional epidemic cannot be ruled out in future. H1N1, Zika, SARS, MERS, and Ebola outbreaks over the past few decades have sharply illustrated our enormous vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. While the data mining research community has demonstrated increased interest in epidemiological applications, much is still left to be desired. For example, there is an urgent need to develop sound theoretical principles and transformative computational approaches that will allow us to address the escalating threat of current and future pandemics. Data mining and knowledge discovery have an important role to play in this regard. Different aspects of infectious disease modeling, analysis, and control have traditionally been studied within the confines of individual disciplines, such as mathematical epidemiology and public health, and data mining and machine learning. Coupled with increasing data generation across multiple domains/sources (e.g., wastewater surveillance, electronic medical records, and social media), there is a clear need for analyzing them to inform public health policies and outcomes timely. Recent advances in disease surveillance and forecasting, and initiatives such as the CDC Flu Challenge, CDC COVID-19 Forecasting Hub etc., have brought these disciplines closer together. On the one hand, public health practitioners seek to use novel datasets, such as Safegraph, Unacast, and Google mobility data, and techniques like Graph Neural Networks. On the other hand, researchers from data mining and machine learning develop novel tools for solving many fundamental problems in the public health policy planning and decision-making process, leveraging novel datasets (e.g., COVID-19 behavioral health surveys, contact tracing trees, and satellite images of urban streets) and combining them with more traditional time series information (e.g., surveillance, hospitalization, and death records). We believe the next stage of advances will result from closer collaborations between these two groups, which is the main objective of epiDAMIK.
Time series data has become ubiquitous across various fields such as healthcare, finance, entertainment, and transportation, driven by advancements in sensing technologies that enable continuous monitoring and recording. This growth in data size and complexity presents new challenges for traditional analysis techniques, necessitating the development of advanced, interdisciplinary temporal mining algorithms. The goals of this workshop are to: (1) highlight significant challenges in learning and mining from time series data, such as irregular sampling, spatiotemporal structures, and uncertainty quantification; (2) discuss recent developments in algorithmic, theoretical, statistical, and systems-based approaches for addressing these challenges, including both classical methods and large language models (LLMs); and (3) synergize research efforts by exploring both new and open problems in time series analysis and mining. This workshop will focus on both the theoretical and practical aspects of time series data analysis, providing a platform for researchers and practitioners from academia, government, and industry to discuss potential research directions, critical technical issues, and present solutions for practical applications. Contributions from related fields such as AI, machine learning, data science, and statistics are also included.
The digital advertising field has always had challenging ML problems, learning from petabytes of data that is highly imbalanced, reactivity times in the milliseconds, and more recently compounded with the complex user's path to purchase across devices, across platforms, and even online/real-world behavior. The AdKDD workshop continues to be a forum for researchers in advertising, during and after KDD. Our website which hosts slides and abstracts receives approximately 2,000 monthly visits and 1,800 active users during the KDD 2021. In surveys during AdKDD 2019 and 2020, over 60% agreed that AdKDD is the reason they attended KDD, and over 90% indicated they would attend next year. The 2024 edition is particularly timely because of the increasing application of Graph-based NN and Generative AI models in advertising. Coupled with privacy-preserving initiatives enforced by GDPR, CCPA the future of computational advertising is at an interesting crossroads. For this edition, we plan to solicit papers that span the spectrum of deep user understanding while remaining privacy-preserving. In addition, we will seek papers that discuss fairness in the context of advertising, to what extent does hyper-personalization work, and whether the ad industry as a whole needs to think through more effective business models such as incrementality. We have hosted several academic and industry luminaries as keynote speakers and have found our invited speaker series hosting expert practitioners to be an audience favorite. We will continue fielding a diverse set of keynote speakers and invited talks for this edition as well. As with past editions, we hope to motivate researchers in this space to think not only about the ML aspects but also to spark conversations about the societal impact of online advertising.
This workshop aims to explore the intersection of Generative AI with the rich tapestry of financial data types, seeking to uncover new methodologies and techniques that can enhance predictive analytics, fraud detection, and customer insights across the sector. By harnessing these advancements in AI, we can pave the way to not only understand customer behavior but also anticipate their needs more effectively, leading to superior customer outcomes and more personalized services. Our objective is to shed light on the challenges and opportunities presented by the diverse data formats in finance. We aim to bridge the gap between the dominance of traditional models for tabular data analysis and the emerging potential of Generative AI to revolutionize the treatment of time series, click streams, and other unstructured data forms.
Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.
Higher-order interactions (HOIs) are ubiquitous in real-world complex systems and applications. Investigation of deep learning for HOIs, thus, has become a valuable agenda for the data mining and machine learning communities. As networks of HOIs are expressed mathematically as hypergraphs, hypergraph neural networks (HNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for representation learning on hypergraphs. Given the emerging trend, we present the first survey dedicated to HNNs, with an in-depth and step-by-step guide. Broadly, the present survey overviews HNN architectures, training strategies, and applications. First, we break existing HNNs down into four design components: (i) input features, (ii) input structures, (iii) message-passing schemes, and (iv) training strategies. Second, we examine how HNNs address and learn HOIs with each of their components. Third, we overview the recent applications of HNNs in recommendation, bioinformatics and medical science, time series analysis, and computer vision. Lastly, we conclude with a discussion on limitations and future directions.
Time series classification and regression are rapidly evolving fields that find areas of application in all domains of machine learning and data science. This hands on tutorial will provide an accessible overview of the recent research in these fields, using code examples to introduce the process of implementing and evaluating an estimator. We will show how to easily reproduce published results and how to compare a new algorithm to state-of-the-art. Finally, we will work through real world examples from the field of Electroencephalogram (EEG) classification and regression. EEG machine learning tasks arise in medicine, brain-computer interface research and psychology. We use these problems to how to compare algorithms on problems from a single domain and how to deal with data with different characteristics, such as missing values, unequal length and high dimensionality. The latest advances in the fields of time series classification and regression are all available through the aeon toolkit, an open source, scikit-learn compatible framework for time series machine learning which we use to provide our code examples.
In large-scale online service systems, numerous Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), such as service response time and error rate, are gathered in a time-series format. KPI Anomaly Detection (KAD) is a critical data mining problem due to its widespread applications in real-world scenarios. However, KAD faces the challenges of dealing with KPI heterogeneity and noisy data. We propose KAD-Disformer, a KPI Anomaly Detection approach through Disentangled Transformer. KAD-Disformer pre-trains a model on existing accessible KPIs, and the pre-trained model can be effectively "fine-tuned" to unseen KPI using only a handful of samples from the unseen KPI. We propose a series of innovative designs, including disentangled projection for transformer, unsupervised few-shot fine-tuning (uTune), and denoising modules, each of which significantly contributes to the overall performance. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that KAD-Disformer surpasses the state-of-the-art universal anomaly detection model by 13% in F1-score and achieves comparable performance using only 1/8 of the finetuning samples saving about 25 hours. KAD-Disformer has been successfully deployed in the real-world cloud system serving millions of users, attesting to its feasibility and robustness. Our code is available at https://github.com/NetManAIOps/KAD-Disformer.
Seasonal-trend decomposition (STD) is a crucial task in time series data analysis. Due to the challenges of scalability, there is a pressing need for an ultra-fast online algorithm. However, existing algorithms either fail to handle long-period time series (such as OnlineSTL), or need time-consuming iterative processes (such as OneShotSTL). Therefore, we propose BacktrackSTL, the first non-iterative online STD algorithm with period-independent O(1) update complexity. It is also robust to outlier, seasonality shift and trend jump because of the combination of outlier-resilient smoothing, non-local seasonal filtering and backtrack technique. Experimentally, BacktrackSTL decomposes a value within 1.6 μs, which is 15X faster than the state-of-the-art online algorithm OneShotSTL, while maintaining comparable accuracy to the best offline algorithm RobustSTL. We have also deployed BacktrackSTL on the top of Apache Flink to decompose monitoring metrics in Alibaba Cloud for over a year. Besides, we have open-sourced the artifact of this proposal on GitHub.
Real-world environments are inherently non-stationary, frequently introducing new classes over time. This is especially common in time series classification, such as the emergence of new disease classification in healthcare or the addition of new activities in human activity recognition. In such cases, a learning system is required to assimilate novel classes effectively while avoiding catastrophic forgetting of the old ones, which gives rise to the Class-incremental Learning (CIL) problem. However, despite the encouraging progress in the image and language domains, CIL for time series data remains relatively understudied. Existing studies suffer from inconsistent experimental designs, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation and benchmarking of methods across a wide range of datasets. To this end, we first present an overview of the Time Series Class-incremental Learning (TSCIL) problem, highlight its unique challenges, and cover the advanced methodologies. Further, based on standardized settings, we develop a unified experimental framework that supports the rapid development of new algorithms, easy integration of new datasets, and standardization of the evaluation process. Using this framework, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of various generic and time-series-specific CIL methods in both standard and privacy-sensitive scenarios. Our extensive experiments not only provide a standard baseline to support future research but also shed light on the impact of various design factors such as normalization layers or memory budget thresholds. Codes are available at https://github.com/zqiao11/TSCIL.
Microservice architecture has become a driving force in enhancing the modularity and scalability of web applications, as evidenced by the Alipay platform's operational success. However, a prevalent issue within such infrastructures is the suboptimal utilization of CPU resources due to inflexible resource allocation policies. This inefficiency necessitates the development of dynamic, accurate workload prediction methods to improve resource allocation. In response to this challenge, we present STAMP, a Spatio Temporal Graph Network for Microservice Workload Prediction. STAMP is designed to comprehensively address the multifaceted interdependencies between microservices, the temporal variability of workloads, and the critical role of system state in resource utilization. Through a graph-based representation, STAMP effectively maps the intricate network of microservice interactions. It employs time series analysis to capture the dynamic nature of workload changes and integrates system state insights to enhance prediction accuracy. Our empirical analysis, using three distinct real-world datasets, establishes that STAMP exceeds baselines by achieving an average boost of 5.72% in prediction precision, as measured by RMSE. Upon deployment in Alipay's microservice environment, STAMP achieves a 33.10% reduction in resource consumption, significantly outperforming existing online methods. This research solidifies STAMP as a validated framework, offering meaningful contributions to the field of resource management in microservice architecture-based applications.
Hierarchical time-series forecasting (HTSF) is an important problem for many real-world business applications where the goal is to simultaneously forecast multiple time-series that are related to each other via a hierarchical relation. Recent works, however, do not address two important challenges that are typically observed in many demand forecasting applications at large companies. First, many time-series at lower levels of the hierarchy have high sparsity i.e., they have a significant number of zeros. Most HTSF methods do not address this varying sparsity across the hierarchy. Further, they do not scale well to the large size of the real-world hierarchy typically unseen in benchmarks used in literature. We resolve both these challenges by proposing HAILS, a novel probabilistic hierarchical model that enables accurate and calibrated probabilistic forecasts across the hierarchy by adaptively modeling sparse and dense time-series with different distributional assumptions and reconciling them to adhere to hierarchical constraints. We show the scalability and effectiveness of our methods by evaluating them against real-world demand forecasting datasets. We deploy HAILS at a large chemical manufacturing company for a product demand forecasting application with over ten thousand products and observe a significant 8.5% improvement in forecast accuracy and 23% better improvement for sparse time-series. The enhanced accuracy and scalability make HAILS a valuable tool for improved business planning and customer experience.
Explainable and Interpretable Forecasts on Non-Smooth Multivariate Time Series for Responsible Gameplay
PDF ↗Multi-variate Time Series (MTS) forecasting has made large strides (with very negligible errors) through recent advancements in neural networks, e.g., Transformers. However, in critical situations like predicting gaming overindulgence that affects one's mental well-being; an accurate forecast without a contributing evidence (explanation) is irrelevant. Hence, it becomes important that the forecasts are Interpretable - intermediate representation of the forecasted trajectory is comprehensible; as well as Explainable - attentive input features and events are accessible for a personalized and timely intervention of players at risk. While the contributing state of the art research on interpretability primarily focuses on temporally-smooth single-process driven time series data, our online multi-player gameplay data demonstrates intractable temporal randomness due to intrinsic orthogonality between player's game outcome and their intent to engage further. We introduce a novel deep Actionable Forecasting Network (AFN), which addresses the inter-dependent challenges associated with three exclusive objectives - 1) forecasting accuracy; 2) smooth comprehensible trajectory and 3) explanations via multi-dimensional input features while tackling the challenges introduced by our non-smooth temporal data, together in one single solution. AFN establishes a new benchmark via: (i) achieving 25% improvement on the MSE of the forecasts on player data in comparison to the SOM-VAE based SOTA networks; (ii) attributing unfavourable progression of a player's time series to a specific future time step(s), with the premise of eliminating near-future overindulgent player volume by over 18% with player specific actionable inputs feature(s) and (iii) proactively detecting over 23% (100% jump from SOTA) of the to-be overindulgent, players on an average, 4 weeks in advance.
Freight transportation marketplace rates are typically challenging to forecast accurately. In this work, we have developed a novel statistical technique based on signature transforms and have built a predictive and adaptive model to forecast these marketplace rates. Our technique is based on two key elements of the signature transform: one being its universal nonlinearity property, which linearizes the feature space and hence translates the forecasting problem into linear regression, and the other being the signature kernel, which allows for comparing computationally efficiently similarities between time series data. Combined, it allows for efficient feature generation and precise identification of seasonality and regime switching in the forecasting process. An algorithm based on our technique has been deployed by Amazon trucking operations, with far superior forecast accuracy and better interpretability versus commercially available industry models, even during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, our technique is able to capture the influence of business cycles and the heterogeneity of the marketplace, improving prediction accuracy by more than fivefold, with an estimated annualized saving of \50 million.
Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. Recent advancements in large language models motivate the integrated financial analysis of both sentiment data, particularly market news, and numerical factors. Nonetheless, this methodology frequently encounters constraints due to the paucity of extensive datasets that amalgamate both quantitative and qualitative sentiment analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a large-scale financial dataset, namely, Financial News and Stock Price Integration Dataset (FNSPID). It comprises 29.7 million stock prices and 15.7 million time-aligned financial news records for 4,775 S&P500 companies, covering the period from 1999 to 2023, sourced from 4 stock market news websites. We demonstrate that FNSPID excels existing stock market datasets in scale and diversity while uniquely incorporating sentiment information. Through financial analysis experiments on FNSPID, we propose: (1) the dataset's size and quality significantly boost market prediction accuracy; (2) adding sentiment scores modestly enhances performance on the transformer-based model; (3) a reproducible procedure that can update the dataset. Completed work, code, documentation, and examples are available at this http URL. FNSPID offers unprecedented opportunities for the financial research community to advance predictive modeling and analysis.