Designing wise AI policy is a grand challenge for society. To design such policy, policymakers should place a premium on rigorous evidence and scientific consensus. While several mechanisms exist for evidence generation, and nascent mechanisms tackle evidence synthesis, we identify a complete void on consensus formation. In this position paper, we argue NeurIPS should actively catalyze scientific consensus on AI policy. Beyond identifying the current deficit in consensus formation mechanisms, we argue that NeurIPS is the best option due its strengths and the paucity of compelling alternatives. To make progress, we recommend initial pilots for NeurIPS by distilling lessons from the IPCC's leadership to build scientific consensus on climate policy. We dispel predictable counters that AI researchers disagree too much to achieve consensus and that policy engagement is not the business of NeurIPS. NeurIPS leads AI on many fronts, and it should champion scientific consensus to create policy that better realizes the benefits of AI.
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Applications · Climate
Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is fundamentally ill-posed due to the sparsity of observations relative to the high-dimensional state space. Traditional methods address this challenge by simplifying background priors to regularize the solution, which are empirical and require continual tuning for application. Inspired by alignment techniques in text-to-image diffusion models, we propose Align-DA, which formulates DA as a generative process and uses reward signals to guide background priors—replacing manual tuning with data-driven alignment. Specifically, we train a score-based model in the latent space to approximate the background-conditioned prior, and align it using three complementary reward signals for DA: (1) assimilation accuracy, (2) forecast skill initialized from the assimilated state, and (3) physical adherence of the analysis fields. Experiments with multiple reward signals demonstrate consistent improvements in analysis quality across different evaluation metrics and observation-guidance strategies. These results show that preference alignment, implemented as a soft constraint, can automatically adapt complex background priors tailored to DA, offering a promising new direction for advancing the field.
Applications · Climate
Urban warming differs markedly from regional background trends, highlighting the unique behavior of urban climates and the challenges they present. Accurately predicting local urban climate necessitates modeling the interactions between urban surfaces and atmospheric forcing. Although off-the-shelf machine learning (ML) algorithms offer considerable accuracy for climate prediction, they often function as black boxes, learning data mappings rather than capturing physical evolution. As a result, they struggle to capture key land-atmosphere interactions and may produce physically inconsistent predictions. To address these limitations, we propose UCformer, a novel multi-task, physics-guided Transformer architecture designed to emulate nonlinear urban climate processes. UCformer jointly estimates 2-m air temperature $\(T\)$, specific humidity $\(q\)$, and dew point temperature $\(t\)$ in urban areas, while embedding domain and physical priors into its learning structure. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating domain and physical knowledge leads to significant improvements in emulation accuracy and generalizability under future urban climate scenarios. Further analysis reveals that learning shared correlations across cities enables the model to capture transferable urban surface–atmosphere interaction patterns, resulting in improved accuracy in urban climate emulation. Finally, UCformer shows strong potential to fit real-world data: when fine-tuned with limited observational data, it achieves competitive performance in estimating urban heat fluxes compared to a physics-based model.
Applications · Climate
Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the AIWPs with shortcomings, including data assimilation biases and temporal discrepancies. To liberate AIWPs from the reanalysis data, observation forecasting emerges as a transformative paradigm for weather prediction. One of the key challenges in observation forecasting is learning spatiotemporal dynamics across disparate measurement systems with irregular high-resolution observation data, which constrains the design and prediction of AIWPs. To this end, we propose our DAWP as an innovative framework to enable AIWPs to operate in a complete observation space by initialization with an artificial intelligence data assimilation (AIDA) module. Specifically, our AIDA module applies a mask multi-modality autoencoder (MMAE) for assimilating irregular satellite observation tokens encoded by mask ViT-VAEs. For AIWP, we introduce a spatiotemporal decoupling transformer with cross-regional boundary conditioning (CBC), learning the dynamics in observation space, to enable sub-image-based global observation forecasting. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that AIDA initialization significantly improves the roll-out and efficiency of AIWP. Additionally, we show that DAWP holds promising potential to be applied in global precipitation forecasting.
Applications · Climate
Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a $0.05^\circ$ grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWF HRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AI- and physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.
Applications · Climate
Air pollution was responsible for 2.6 million deaths across South Asia in 2021 alone, with brick manufacturing contributing significantly to this burden. In particular, the Indo-Gangetic Plain; a densely populated and highly polluted region spanning northern India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and parts of Afghanistan sees brick kilns contributing 8–14% of ambient air pollution. Traditional monitoring approaches, such as field surveys and manual annotation using tools like Google Earth Pro, are time and labor-intensive. Prior ML-based efforts for automated detection have relied on costly high-resolution commercial imagery and non-public datasets, limiting reproducibility and scalability. In this work, we introduce SENTINELKILNDB, a publicly available, hand-validated benchmark of 62,671 brick kilns spanning threekiln types Fixed Chimney Bull’s Trench Kiln (FCBK), Circular FCBK (CFCBK), and Zigzag kilns - annotated with oriented bounding boxes (OBBs) across 2.8 million km2 using free and globally accessible Sentinel-2 imagery. We benchmark state-of-the-art oriented object detection models and evaluate generalization across in-region, out-of-region, and super-resolution settings. SENTINELKILNDB enables rigorous evaluation of geospatial generalization and robustness for low-resolution object detection, and provides a new testbed for ML models addressing real-world environmental and remote sensing challenges at a continental scale. Datasets and code are available in SentinelKilnDB Dataset and SentinelKilnDB Bench-mark, under the Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Applications · Climate
Data-driven approaches, particularly those based on deep learning, are rapidly advancing Earth system modeling. However, their application to ocean forecasting remains limited despite the ocean's pivotal role in climate regulation and marine ecosystems. To address this gap, we present OceanBench, a benchmark designed to evaluate and accelerate global short-range (1–10 days) data-driven ocean forecasting.OceanBench is constructed from a curated dataset comprising first-guess trajectories, nowcasts, and atmospheric forcings from operational physical ocean models, typically unavailable in public datasets due to assimilation cycles. Matched observational data are also included, enabling realistic evaluation in an operational-like forecasting framework.The benchmark defines three complementary evaluation tracks: (i) Model-to-Reanalysis, where models are compared against the reanalysis dataset commonly used for training; (ii) Model-to-Analysis, assessing generalization to a higher-resolution physical analysis; and (iii) Model-to-Observations, Intercomparison and Validation (IV-TT) CLASS-4 evaluation against independent observational data. The first two tracks are further supported by process-oriented diagnostics to assess the dynamical consistency and physical plausibility of forecasts.OceanBench includes key ocean variables: sea surface height, temperature, salinity, and currents, along with standardized metrics grounded in physical oceanography. Baseline comparisons with operational systems and state-of-the-art deep learning models are provided. All data, code, and evaluation protocols are openly available at https://github.com/mercator-ocean/oceanbench, establishing OceanBench as a foundation for reproducible and rigorous research in data-driven ocean forecasting.
Applications · Climate
The rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), particularly in their reasoning capabilities, hold transformative potential for addressing complex challenges and boosting scientific discovery in atmospheric science. However, leveraging LLMs effectively in this domain requires a robust and comprehensive evaluation benchmark. Toward this end, we present AtmosSci-Bench, a novel benchmark designed to systematically assess LLM performance across five core categories of atmospheric science problems: hydrology, atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric physics, geophysics, and physical oceanography.AtmosSci-Bench features a dual-format design comprising both multiple-choice questions (MCQs) and open-ended questions (OEQs), enabling scalable automated evaluation alongside deeper analysis of conceptual understanding. We employ a template-based MCQ generation framework to create diverse, graduate-level problems with symbolic perturbation, while OEQs are used to probe open-ended reasoning.We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of representative LLMs, categorized into four groups: instruction-tuned models, advanced reasoning models, math-augmented models, and domain-specific climate models. Our analysis provides some interesting insights into the reasoning and problem-solving capabilities of LLMs in atmospheric science. We believe AtmosSci-Bench can serve as a critical step toward advancing LLM applications in climate services by offering a standard and rigorous evaluation framework. The source code of AtmosSci-Bench is available at https://github.com/Relaxed-System-Lab/AtmosSci-Bench.
Applications · Climate
Plant traits such as leaf carbon content and leaf mass are essential variables in the study of biodiversity and climate change. However, conventional field sampling cannot feasibly cover trait variation at ecologically meaningful spatial scales. Machine learning represents a valuable solution for plant trait prediction across ecosystems, leveraging hyperspectral data from remote sensing.Nevertheless, trait prediction from hyperspectral data is challenged by label scarcity and substantial domain shifts (\eg across sensors, ecological distributions), requiring robust cross-domain methods.Here, we present GreenHyperSpectra, a pretraining dataset encompassing real-world cross-sensor and cross-ecosystem samples designed to benchmark trait prediction with semi- and self-supervised methods. We adopt an evaluation framework encompassing in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios. We successfully leverage GreenHyperSpectra to pretrain label-efficient multi-output regression models that outperform the state-of-the-art supervised baseline. Our empirical analyses demonstrate substantial improvements in learning spectral representations for trait prediction, establishing a comprehensive methodological framework to catalyze research at the intersection of representation learning and plant functional traits assessment. We also share the dataset\footnotemark[1], code and pretrained model objects for this study \href{https://github.com/echerif18/HyspectraSSL}{here}.\footnotetext[1]{GreenHyperSpectra dataset: \href{https://huggingface.co/datasets/Avatarr05/GreenHyperSpectra}{https://huggingface.co/datasets/Avatarr05/GreenHyperSpectra}}
Applications · Climate
Accurate weather forecasting across time scales is critical for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recent data-driven methods based on deep learning have achieved significant success in the medium range, but struggle at longer subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) horizons due to error accumulation in their autoregressive approach. In this work, we propose OmniCast, a scalable and skillful probabilistic model that unifies weather forecasting across timescales. OmniCast consists of two components: a VAE model that encodes raw weather data into a continuous, lower-dimensional latent space, and a diffusion-based transformer model that generates a sequence of future latent tokens given the initial conditioning tokens. During training, we mask random future tokens and train the transformer to estimate their distribution given conditioning and visible tokens using a per-token diffusion head. During inference, the transformer generates the full sequence of future tokens by iteratively unmasking random subsets of tokens. This joint sampling across space and time mitigates compounding errors from autoregressive approaches. The low-dimensional latent space enables modeling long sequences of future latent states, allowing the transformer to learn weather dynamics beyond initial conditions. OmniCast performs competitively with leading probabilistic methods at the medium-range timescale while being 10× to 20× faster, and achieves state-of-the-art performance at the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale across accuracy, physics-based, and probabilistic metrics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that OmniCast can generate stable rollouts up to 100 years ahead. Code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/omnicast.
Applications · Time Series
Air pollution remains one of the most critical environmental challenges globally, posing severe threats to public health, ecological sustainability, and climate governance. While existing physics-based and data-driven models have made progress in air quality forecasting, they often struggle to jointly capture the complex spatiotemporal dynamics and ensure spatial continuity of pollutant distributions. In this study, we introduce CTENet, a novel chemical transport deep learning model that embeds the Advection-Diffusion-Reaction equation into a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) framework using an Eulerian representation to model the spatiotemporal evolution of pollutants. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that CTENet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines, achieving a remarkable RMSE improvement of 45.8% on the USA dataset and 21.0% on the China dataset.
Probabilistic Methods
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued parameters, which frequently occur in disciplines that model spatiotemporal processes such as the climate and earth sciences. Here, we introduce an approach for efficient posterior estimation, using a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) architecture with a flow matching objective. We show that our approach, FNOPE, can perform inference of function-valued parameters at a fraction of the simulation budget of state of the art methods. In addition, FNOPE supports posterior evaluation at arbitrary discretizations of the domain, as well as simultaneous estimation of vector-valued parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several benchmark tasks and a challenging spatial inference task from glaciology. FNOPE extends the applicability of SBI methods to new scientific domains by enabling the inference of function-valued parameters.
Applications · Climate
Companies spend large amounts of money on public relations campaigns to project a positive brand image.However, sometimes there is a mismatch between what they say and what they do. Oil & gas companies, for example, are accused of "greenwashing" with imagery of climate-friendly initiatives.Understanding the framing, and changes in framing, at scale can help better understand the goals and nature of public relation campaigns.To address this, we introduce a benchmark dataset of expert-annotated video ads obtained from Facebook and YouTube.The dataset provides annotations for 13 framing types for more than 50 companies or advocacy groups across 20 countries.Our dataset is especially designed for the evaluation of vision-language models (VLMs), distinguishing it from past text-only framing datasets.Baseline experiments show some promising results, while leaving room for improvement for future work: GPT-4.1 can detect environmental messages with 79% F1 score, while our best model only achieves 46% F1 score on identifying framing around green innovation.We also identify challenges that VLMs must address, such as implicit framing, handling videos of various lengths, or implicit cultural backgrounds.Our dataset contributes to research in multimodal analysis of strategic communication in the energy sector.
Applications · Physics
Solving time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using a densely discretized spatial domain is a fundamental problem in various scientific and engineering disciplines, including modeling climate phenomena and fluid dynamics. However, performing these computations directly in the physical space often incurs significant computational costs. To address this issue, several neural surrogate models have been developed that operate in a compressed latent space to solve the PDE. While these approaches reduce computational complexity, they often use Transformer-based attention mechanisms to handle irregularly sampled domains, resulting in increased memory consumption. In contrast, convolutional neural networks allow memory-efficient encoding and decoding but are limited to regular discretizations. Motivated by these considerations, we propose CALM-PDE, a model class that efficiently solves arbitrarily discretized PDEs in a compressed latent space. We introduce a novel continuous convolution-based encoder-decoder architecture that uses an epsilon-neighborhood-constrained kernel and learns to apply the convolution operator to adaptive and optimized query points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CALM-PDE on a diverse set of PDEs with both regularly and irregularly sampled spatial domains. CALM-PDE is competitive with or outperforms existing baseline methods while offering significant improvements in memory and inference time efficiency compared to Transformer-based methods.
Applications · Climate
Multimodal time series forecasting is foundational in various fields, such as utilizing satellite imagery and numerical data for predicting typhoons in climate science. However, existing multimodal approaches primarily focus on utilizing text data to help time series forecasting, leaving the visual data in existing time series datasets underexplored. Furthermore, it is challenging for models to effectively capture the physical information embedded in visual data, such as satellite imagery's temporal and geospatial context, which extends beyond images themselves. To address this gap, we propose physics-informed positional encoding (PIPE), a lightweight method that embeds physical information into vision language models (VLMs). PIPE introduces two key innovations: (1) a physics-informed positional indexing scheme for mapping physics to positional IDs, and (2) a variant-frequency positional encoding mechanism for encoding frequency information of physical variables and sequential order of tokens within the embedding space. By preserving both the physical information and sequential order information, PIPE significantly improves multimodal alignment and forecasting accuracy. Through the experiments on the most representative and the largest open-sourced satellite image dataset, PIPE achieves state-of-the-art performance in both deep learning forecasting and climate domain methods, demonstrating superiority across benchmarks, including a 12\% improvement in typhoon intensity forecasting over prior works.
Applications · Time Series
Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce *DynaMix*, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters (0.1%) and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, *but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus*. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.
Applications · Climate
The global rise in wildfire frequency and intensity over the past decade underscores the need for improved fire monitoring techniques. To advance deep learning research on wildfire detection and its associated human health impacts, we introduce **SmokeViz**, a large-scale machine learning dataset of smoke plumes in satellite imagery. The dataset is derived from expert annotations created by smoke analysts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which provide coarse temporal and spatial approximations of smoke presence. To enhance annotation precision, we propose **pseudo-label dimension reduction (PLDR)**, a generalizable method that applies pseudo-labeling to refine datasets with mismatching temporal and/or spatial resolutions. Unlike typical pseudo-labeling applications that aim to increase the number of labeled samples, PLDR maintains the original labels but increases the dataset quality by solving for intermediary pseudo-labels (IPLs) that align each annotation to the most representative input data. For SmokeViz, a parent model produces IPLs to identify the single satellite image within each annotations time window that best corresponds with the smoke plume. This refinement process produces a succinct and relevant deep learning dataset consisting of over 160,000 manual annotations. The SmokeViz dataset is expected to be a valuable resource to develop further wildfire-related machine learning models and is publicly available at \url{https://noaa-gsl-experimental-pds.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html#SmokeViz/}.
Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning
As AI grows more powerful, it will increasingly shape how we understand the world. But with this influence comes the risk of amplifying misinformation and deepening social divides—especially on consequential topics where factual accuracy directly impacts well-being. Scalable Oversight aims to ensure AI systems remain truthful even when their capabilities exceed those of their evaluators. Yet when humans serve as evaluators, their own beliefs and biases can impair judgment. We study whether AI debate can guide biased judges toward the truth by having two AI systems debate opposing sides of controversial factuality claims on COVID-19 and climate change where people hold strong prior beliefs. We conduct two studies. Study I recruits human judges with either mainstream or skeptical beliefs who evaluate claims through two protocols: debate (interaction with two AI advisors arguing opposing sides) or consultancy (interaction with a single AI advisor). Study II uses AI judges with and without human-like personas to evaluate the same protocols. In Study I, debate consistently improves human judgment accuracy and confidence calibration, outperforming consultancy by 4-10\% across COVID-19 and climate change claims. The improvement is most significant for judges with mainstream beliefs (up to +15.2\% accuracy on COVID-19 claims), though debate also helps skeptical judges who initially misjudge claims move toward accurate views (+4.7\% accuracy). In Study II, AI judges with human-like personas achieve even higher accuracy (78.5\%) than human judges (70.1\%) and default AI judges without personas (69.8\%), suggesting their potential for supervising frontier AI models. These findings highlight AI debate as a promising path toward scalable, bias-resilient oversight in contested domains.
General Machine Learning · Causality
We introduce a novel framework for decomposing interventional causal effects into synergistic, redundant, and unique components, building on the intuition of Partial Information Decomposition (PID) and the principle of Möbius inversion. While recent work has explored a similar decomposition of an observational measure, we argue that a proper causal decomposition must be interventional in nature. We develop a mathematical approach that systematically quantifies how causal power is distributed among variables in a system, using a recently derived closed-form expression for the Möbius function of the redundancy lattice. The formalism is then illustrated by decomposing the causal power in logic gates, cellular automata, and chemical reaction networks. Our results reveal how the distribution of causal power can be context- and parameter-dependent. The decomposition provides new insights into complex systems by revealing how causal influences are shared and combined among multiple variables, with potential applications ranging from attribution of responsibility in legal or AI systems, to the analysis of biological networks or climate models.
Applications · Climate
Modern precipitation forecasting systems, including reanalysis datasets, numerical models, and AI-based approaches, typically produce coarse-resolution gridded outputs. The process of converting these outputs to station-level predictions often introduces substantial spatial biases relative to station-level observations, especially in complex terrains or under extreme conditions. These biases stem from two core challenges: (i) $\textbf{station-level heterogeneity}$, with site-specific temporal and spatial dynamics; and (ii) $\textbf{oversmoothing}$, which blurs fine-scale variability in graph-based models. To address these issues, we propose $\textbf{DiffLiG}$ ($\underline{Diff}$usion-enhanced $\underline{Li}$quid $\underline{G}$raph with Attention Propagation), a graph neural network designed for precise spatial correction from gridded forecasts to station observations. DiffLiG integrates a GeoLiquidNet that adapts temporal encoding via site-aware OU dynamics, a graph neural network with a dynamic edge modulator that learns spatially adaptive connectivity, and a Probabilistic Diffusion Selector that generates and refines ensemble forecasts to mitigate oversmoothing. Experiments across multiple datasets show that DiffLiG consistently outperforms other methods, delivering more accurate and robust corrections across diverse geographic and climatic settings. Moreover, it achieves notable gains on other key meteorological variables, underscoring its generalizability and practical utility.