Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE)---a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is challenging because SWE is influenced by various factors including topography and an array of environmental conditions, and has therefore been observed to be spatio-temporally variable. Classical approaches to SWE forecasting have not adequately utilized these spatial/temporal correlations, nor do they provide uncertainty estimates --- which can be of significant value to the decision maker. In this paper, we present ForeSWE, a new probabilistic spatio-temporal forecasting model that integrates deep learning and classical probabilistic techniques. The resulting model features a combination of an attention mechanism to integrate spatiotemporal features and interactions, alongside a Gaussian process module that provides principled quantification of prediction uncertainty. We evaluate the model on data from 512 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the Western US. The results show significant improvements in both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval compared to state-of-the-art approaches. The results also serve to highlight the efficacy in uncertainty estimates between different approaches. Collectively, these findings have provided a platform for deployment and feedback by the water management community.
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PlantTraitNet: An Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal Framework for Global-Scale Plant Trait Inference from Citizen Science Data
PDF ↗Global plant maps of plant traits, such as leaf nitrogen or plant height, are essential for understanding ecosystem processes, including the carbon and energy cycles of the Earth system. However, existing trait maps remain limited by the high cost and sparse geographic coverage of field-based measurements. Citizen science initiatives offer a largely untapped resource to overcome these limitations, with over 50 million geotagged plant photographs worldwide capturing valuable visual information on plant morphology and physiology. In this study, we introduce PlantTraitNet, a multi-modal, multi-task uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that predicts four key plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, and nitrogen content) from citizen science photos using weak supervision. By aggregating individual trait predictions across space, we generate global maps of trait distributions. We validate these maps against independent vegetation survey data (sPlotOpen) and benchmark them against leading global trait products. Our results show that PlantTraitNet consistently outperforms existing trait maps across all evaluated traits, demonstrating that citizen science imagery, when integrated with computer vision and geospatial AI, enables not only scalable but also more accurate global trait mapping. This approach offers a powerful new pathway for ecological research and Earth system modeling.
Animal re-identification (Re-ID) has recently gained substantial attention in the AI research community due to its high impact on biodiversity monitoring and unique research challenges arising from environmental factors. The subtle distinguishing patterns like stripes or spots, handling new species and the inherent open-set nature make the problem even harder. To address these complexities, foundation models trained on labeled, large-scale and multi-species animal Re-ID datasets have recently been introduced to enable zero-shot Re-ID. However, our benchmarking reveals significant gaps in their zero-shot Re-ID performance for both known and unknown species. While this highlights the need for collecting labeled data in new domains, exhaustive annotation for Re-ID is laborious and requires domain expertise. Our analyses also show that existing unsupervised (USL) and active learning (AL) Re-ID methods underperform for animal Re-ID. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel AL Re-ID framework that leverages complementary clustering methods to uncover and target structurally ambiguous regions in the embedding space for mining pairs of samples that are both informative and broadly representative. Oracle feedback on these pairs, in the form of must-link and cannot-link constraints, facilitates a simple annotation interface, which naturally integrates with existing USL methods through our proposed constrained clustering refinement algorithm. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that, by utilizing only 0.033% of all possible annotations, our approach consistently outperforms existing foundational, USL and AL baselines. Specifically, we report an average improvement of 10.49%, 11.19% and 3.99% (mAP) on 13 wildlife datasets over foundational, USL and AL methods, respectively, while attaining state-of-the-art performance on each dataset. Furthermore, we also show an improvement of 11.09%, 8.2% and 2.06% (AUC ROC) for unknown individuals in an open-world setting. We also present results on 2 publicly available person Re-ID datasets, showing average gains of 7.96% and 2.86% (mAP) over existing USL and AL Re-ID methods.
The objective of this study is to advance the optimization of hybrid electricity markets using multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). The transition from centralized systems to public–private models introduces significant challenges, including the emergence of independent market players and the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RESs). These challenges are further intensified by rapidly shifting demand patterns, driven both by energy-intensive data centers and AI inference workloads, as well as by political and societal instabilities. To address these complexities, we develop a formal model of market participants’ behavior and propose a MARL-based framework for optimizing system operator strategies. This framework incorporates dynamic pricing and dispatch scheduling to minimize operational costs, maintain grid stability, and align market incentives. We also present a new, adaptable simulation environment compatible with state-of-the-art MARL methods. Empirical evaluations in increasingly complex scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing the dynamic and decentralized nature of modern electricity markets.
Global biodiversity loss is accelerating, prompting international efforts such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to direct resources toward halting species declines. A key challenge in achieving this goal is having access to robust methodologies to understand where species occur and how they relate to each other within broader ecological communities. Recent deep learning-based advances in joint species distribution modeling have shown improved predictive performance, but effectively incorporating community-level learning, taking into account species-species relationships in addition to species-environment relationships, remains an outstanding challenge. We introduce LabelKAN, a novel framework based on Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) to learn inter-label connections from predictions of each label. When modeling avian species distributions, LabelKAN achieves substantial gains in predictive performance across the vast majority of species. In particular, our method demonstrates strong improvements for rare and difficult-to-predict species, which are often the most important when setting biodiversity targets under frameworks like GBF. These performance gains also translate to more confident predictions of the species spatial patterns as well as more confident predictions of community structure. We illustrate how the LabelKAN leads to qualitative and quantitative improvements with a focused application on the Great Blue Heron, an emblematic species in freshwater ecosystems that has experienced significant population declines across the United States in recent years. Using the LabelKAN framework, we are able to identify communities and species in New York that will be most sensitive to further declines in Great Blue Heron populations. Our results underscore the critical importance of incorporating information on community assemblage in species distribution modeling. By leveraging species co-occurrence patterns, our approach offers deeper ecological insights and supports more informed conservation planning in the face of accelerating biodiversity loss. Beyond species distribution modeling, LabelKAN provides a principled approach to capturing inter-label connections and can generalize to diverse multi-label tasks. We hope it encourages further research on inter-label learning across domains.
Online Social Networks (OSNs) widely adopt content moderation to mitigate the spread of abusive and toxic discourse. Nonetheless, the real effectiveness of moderation interventions remains unclear due to the high cost of data collection and limited experimental control. The latest developments in Natural Language Processing pave the way for a new evaluation approach. Large Language Models (LLMs) can be successfully leveraged to enhance Agent-Based Modeling and simulate human-like social behavior with unprecedented degree of believability. Yet, existing tools do not support simulation-based evaluation of moderation strategies. We fill this gap by designing a LLM-powered simulator of OSN conversations enabling a parallel, counterfactual simulation where toxic behavior is influenced by moderation interventions, keeping all else equal. We conduct extensive experiments, unveiling the psychological realism of OSN agents, the emergence of social contagion phenomena and the superior effectiveness of personalized moderation strategies.
How Can You Tell if Your Large Language Model Could Be a Closet Antisemite? An Explainability-Based Audit Framework for Implicit Bias
PDF ↗Auditing large language models (LLMs) for biases is an ongoing and dynamic process, resembling a proverbial cat-and-mouse game. As researchers identify new vulnerabilities in LLMs, guardrails are updated to address them, prompting the need for innovative approaches to audit the increasingly fortified LLMs for biases. This paper makes three contributions. First, it introduces a scalable, explainable framework to measure biases against various identity groups across multiple open large language models. Second, it conducts a bias audit considering five well-known open LLMs and demonstrates their bias inclinations towards several historically disadvantaged groups. Our audit reveals disturbing antisemitic, Islamophobic, and xenophobic biases present in several well-known LLMs. Finally, we release a dataset of 1,000 probes curated under the supervision of an expert social scientist that can facilitate similar audits.
Free-flow road networks, such as suburban highways, are increasingly experiencing traffic congestion due to growing commuter inflow and limited infrastructure. Traditional control mechanisms—traffic signals or local heuristics—are ineffective or infeasible in these high-speed, signal-free environments. We introduce self-regulating cars, a reinforcement learning-based traffic control protocol that dynamically modulates vehicle speeds to optimize throughput and prevent congestion, without requiring new physical infrastructure. Our approach integrates classical traffic flow theory, gap acceptance models, and microscopic simulation into a physics-informed RL framework. By abstracting roads into super-segments, the agent captures emergent flow dynamics and learns robust speed modulation policies from instantaneous traffic observations. Evaluated in the high-fidelity PTV Vissim simulator on a real-world highway network, our method improves total throughput by 5%, reduces average delay by 13%, and decreases total stops by 3% compared to the no-control setting. It also achieves smoother, congestion-resistant flow while generalizing across varied traffic patterns—demonstrating its potential for scalable, ML-driven traffic management.
Urban Incident Prediction with Graph Neural Networks: Integrating Government Ratings and Crowdsourced Reports
PDF ↗Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used in urban spatiotemporal forecasting, e.g., predicting infrastructure problems. In this setting, government officials aim to identify in which neighborhoods incidents like potholes or rodents occur. The true state of incidents is observed via government inspection ratings. However, these ratings are only conducted for a sparse set of neighborhoods and incident types. We also observe the state of incidents via crowdsourced reports, which are more densely observed but may be biased due to heterogeneous reporting. First, we propose a multiview, multioutput GNN-based model that uses both unbiased rating data and biased reporting data to predict the true latent state of incidents. Second, we investigate a case study of New York City urban incidents and collect a dataset of 9,615,863 crowdsourced reports and 1,041,415 government inspection ratings over 3 years and across 139 types of incidents. We show on both real and semi-synthetic data that our model can better predict the latent state compared to models that use only reporting data or only rating data. Finally, we quantify demographic biases in crowdsourced reporting, e.g., higher-income neighborhoods report problems at higher rates. Our analysis showcases a widely applicable approach for latent state prediction using heterogeneous, sparse, and biased data.
Equitably allocating limited resources in high-stakes domains—such as education, employment, and healthcare—requires balancing short-term utility with long-term impact, while accounting for delayed outcomes, hidden heterogeneity, and ethical constraints. However, most learning-based allocation frameworks either assume immediate feedback or ignore the complex interplay between individual characteristics and intervention dynamics. We propose a novel bi-level contextual bandit framework for individualized resource allocation under delayed feedback, designed to operate in real-world settings with dynamic populations, capacity constraints, and time-sensitive impact. At the meta level, the model optimizes subgroup-level budget allocations to satisfy fairness and operational constraints. At the base level, it identifies the most responsive individuals within each group using a neural network trained on observational data, while respecting cooldown windows and delayed treatment effects modeled via resource-specific delay kernels. By explicitly modeling temporal dynamics and feedback delays, the algorithm continually refines its policy as new data arrive, enabling more responsive and adaptive decision-making. We validate our approach on two real-world datasets from education and workforce development, showing that it achieves higher cumulative outcomes, better adapts to delay structures, and ensures equitable distribution across subgroups. Our results highlight the potential of delay-aware, data-driven decision-making systems to improve institutional policy and social welfare.
SL-CBM: Enhancing Concept Bottleneck Models with Semantic Locality for Better Interpretability
PDF ↗Explainable AI (XAI) is crucial for building transparent and trustworthy machine learning systems, especially in high-stakes domains. Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have emerged as a promising ante-hoc approach that provides interpretable, concept-level explanations by explicitly modeling human-understandable concepts. However, existing CBMs often suffer from poor locality faithfulness, failing to spatially align concepts with meaningful image regions, which limits their interpretability and reliability. In this work, we propose SL-CBM (CBM with Semantic Locality), a novel extension that enforces locality faithfulness by generating spatially coherent saliency maps at both concept and class levels. SL-CBM integrates a 1 × 1 convolutional layer with a cross-attention mechanism to enhance alignment between concepts, image regions, and final predictions. Unlike prior methods, SL-CBM produces faithful saliency maps inherently tied to the model’s internal reasoning, facilitating more effective debugging and intervention. Extensive experiments on image datasets demonstrate that SL-CBM substantially improves locality faithfulness, explanation quality, and intervention efficacy while maintaining competitive classification accuracy. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of contrastive and entropy-based regularization for balancing accuracy, sparsity, and faithfulness. Overall, SL-CBM bridges the gap between concept-based reasoning and spatial explainability, setting a new standard for interpretable and trustworthy concept-based models.
Reward-model-based fine-tuning is a central paradigm in aligning Large Language Models with human preferences. However, such approaches critically rely on the assumption that proxy reward models accurately reflect intended supervision, a condition often violated due to annotation noise, bias, or limited coverage. This misalignment can lead to undesirable behaviors, where models optimize for flawed signals rather than true human values. In this paper, we investigate a novel framework to identify and mitigate such misalignment by treating the fine-tuning process as a form of knowledge integration. We focus on detecting instances of proxy-policy conflicts, cases where the base model strongly disagrees with the proxy. We argue that such conflicts often signify areas of shared ignorance, where neither the policy nor the reward model possesses sufficient knowledge, making them especially susceptible to misalignment. To this end, we propose two complementary metrics for identifying these conflicts: a localized Proxy-Policy Alignment Conflict Score (PACS) and a global Kendall-Tau Distance measure. Building on this insight, we design an algorithm named Selective Human-in-the-loop Feedback via Conflict-Aware Sampling (SHF-CAS) that targets high-conflict QA pairs for additional feedback, refining both the reward model and policy efficiently. Experiments on two alignment tasks demonstrate that our approach enhances general alignment performance, even when trained with a biased proxy reward. Our work provides a new lens for interpreting alignment failures and offers a principled pathway for targeted refinement in LLM training.
3D generation and reconstruction techniques have been widely used in computer games, film, and other content creation areas. As the application grows, there is a growing demand for 3D shapes that look truly realistic. Traditional evaluation methods rely on a ground truth to measure mesh fidelity. However, in many practical cases, a shape's realism does not depend on having a ground truth reference. In this work, we propose a Shape-Realism Alignment Metric that leverages a large language model (LLM) as a bridge between mesh shape information and realism evaluation. To achieve this, we adopt a mesh encoding approach that converts 3D shapes into the language token space. A dedicated realism decoder is designed to align the language model’s output with human perception of realism. Additionally, we introduce a new dataset, RealismGrading, which provides human-annotated realism scores without the need for ground truth shapes. Our dataset includes shapes generated by 16 different algorithms on over a dozen objects, making it more representative of practical 3D shape distributions. We validate our metric's performance and generalizability through k-fold cross-validation across different objects. Experimental results show that our metric correlates well with human perceptions and outperforms existing methods, and has good generalizability.
How Much Do Large Language Model Cheat on Evaluation? Benchmarking Overestimation Under the One-Time-Pad-Based Framework
PDF ↗Overestimation in evaluating large language models (LLMs) has become an increasing concern. Due to the contamination of public benchmarks or imbalanced model training, LLMs may achieve unreal evaluation results on public benchmarks, either intentionally or unintentionally, which leads to unfair comparisons among LLMs and undermines their realistic capability assessments. Existing benchmarks attempt to address these issues by keeping test cases permanently secret, mitigating contamination through human evaluation, or repeatedly collecting and constructing new samples. However, these approaches fail to ensure reproducibility, transparency, and high efficiency simultaneously. Moreover, the extent of overestimation in current LLMs remains unquantified. To address these issues, we propose ArxivRoll, a dynamic evaluation framework inspired by one-time pad encryption in cryptography. ArxivRoll comprises two key components: i) SCP (Sequencing, Cloze, and Prediction), an automated generator for private test cases, and ii) Rugged Scores (RS), metrics that measure the proportion of public benchmark contamination and training bias. Leveraging SCP, ArxivRoll constructs a new benchmark every six months using recent articles from ArXiv and employs them for one-time evaluations of LLM performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the high quality of our benchmark, and we provide a systematic evaluation of current LLMs.
Intelligent agents in real-world applications must adapt their behavior to changing contexts and user preferences. For example, planning a road trip requires considering both travel time and cost. Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) provides a principled approach to navigate such trade-offs. However, most existing approaches require predefined preference weights during training and jointly optimize the model for all objectives. In this paper, we introduce TORA (Train Once, Realign Anytime), a novel framework that defers preference integration to inference time, enabling flexible adaptation to user preferences without retraining. TORA independently trains diffusion planning models for each objective and combines them at inference time using user-specified preferences to generate behavior aligned with desired trade-offs. Furthermore, new objectives can be added seamlessly by training additional models without modifying existing ones. Empirical evaluations on standard offline MORL benchmarks demonstrate that TORA achieves competitive and consistent performance compared to methods that require fixed preference weights.
Safety-aligned large language models (LLMs) are becoming increasingly widespread, especially in sensitive applications where fairness is essential and biased outputs can cause significant harm. However, evaluating the fairness of models is a complex challenge, and approaches that do so typically utilize standard question-answer (QA) styled schemes. Such methods often overlook deeper issues by interpreting the model's refusal responses as positive fairness measurements, which creates a false sense of fairness. In this work, we introduce the concept of silenced biases, which are unfair preferences encoded within models' latent space and are effectively concealed by safety-alignment. Previous approaches that considered similar indirect biases often relied on prompt manipulation or handcrafted implicit queries, which present limited scalability and risk contaminating the evaluation process with additional biases. We propose the Silenced Bias Benchmark (SBB), which aims to uncover these biases by employing activation steering to reduce model refusals during QA. SBB supports easy expansion to new demographic groups and subjects, presenting a fairness evaluation framework that encourages the future development of fair models and tools beyond the masking effects of alignment training. We demonstrate our approach over multiple LLMs, where our findings expose an alarming distinction between models' direct responses and their underlying fairness issues.
Large language models are widely used, but aligning them with societal values remains challenging. Current approaches often rely on human annotations, which are hard to scale, or synthetic data produced by models that may themselves be misaligned, making it difficult to capture genuine public opinion. This limits scalability and introduces demographic biases that reduce the representativeness and fairness of model behavior. We introduce a novel approach to pluralistic alignment through behavioral learning, grounded in the psychological principle that actions (behavior) have strong consistency with opinions. Specifically, we present ALPHA50M, a dataset of over 50 million samples derived from 1.5 million real-world advertisements, incorporating rich behavioral signals inferred from demographic engagement patterns. Models trained on this data achieve state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on diverse alignment benchmarks spanning cultural reasoning, political views, and social values. We also propose two new benchmarks: OpinionQA-XL, which covers surveys across 100+ societal topics, and GSS, which evaluates temporal opinion shift modeling over decades. Our results demonstrate that learning from behavioral signals, derived from observed human actions, enables models to align with diverse demographic opinions, capture underlying social and cultural norms, and generalize to new topics and surveys beyond training data. This behavioral learning paradigm offers a scalable and demographically broad alternative to existing alignment techniques.
Present day LLMs face the challenge of managing affordance-based safety risks—situations where outputs inadvertently facilitate harmful actions due to overlooked logical implications. Traditional safety solutions, such as scalar outcome-based reward models, parameter tuning, or heuristic decoding strategies, lack the granularity and proactive nature needed to reliably detect and intervene during subtle yet crucial reasoning steps. Addressing this fundamental gap, we introduce AURA, an innovative, multi-layered framework centered around Process Reward Models (PRMs), providing comprehensive, step level evaluations across logical coherence and safety-awareness. Our framework seamlessly combines introspective self-critique, fine-grained PRM assessments, and adaptive safety-aware decoding to dynamically and proactively guide models toward safer reasoning trajectories. Empirical evidence clearly demonstrates that this approach significantly surpasses existing methods, significantly improving the logical integrity and affordance-sensitive safety of model outputs. This research represents a pivotal step toward safer, more responsible, and contextually aware AI, setting a new benchmark for alignment-sensitive applications.
Recent advancements in bidirectional heuristic search have yielded significant theoretical insights and novel algorithms. While most previous work has concentrated on optimal search methods, this paper focuses on bounded-suboptimal bidirectional search, where a bound on the suboptimality of the solution cost is specified. We build upon the state-of-the-art optimal bidirectional search algorithm, BAE*, designed for consistent heuristics, and introduce several variants of BAE* specifically tailored for the bounded-suboptimal context. Through experimental evaluation, we compare the performance of these new variants against other bounded-suboptimal bidirectional algorithms as well as the standard weighted A* algorithm. Our results demonstrate that each algorithm excels under distinct conditions, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.
Not Just for Archiving: Provable Benefits of Reusing the Archive in Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization
PDF ↗Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) have become the most popular tool for solving widely-existed multi-objective optimization problems. In Multi-Objective EAs (MOEAs), there is increasing interest in using an archive to store non-dominated solutions generated during the search. This approach can 1) mitigate the effects of population oscillation, a common issue in many MOEAs, and 2) allow for the use of smaller, more practical population sizes. In this paper, we analytically show that the archive can even further help MOEAs through reusing its solutions during the process of new solution generation. We first prove that using a small population size alongside an archive (without incorporating archived solutions in the generation process) may fail on certain problems, as the population may remove previously discovered but promising solutions. We then prove that reusing archive solutions can overcome this limitation, resulting in at least a polynomial speedup on the expected running time. Our analysis focuses on the well-established SMS-EMOA algorithm applied to the commonly studied OneJumpZeroJump problem as well as one of its variants. We also show that reusing archive solutions can be better than using a large population size directly. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings through experiments on well-known practical optimization problems.