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General Machine Learning · Causality

Felix Schur, Niklas Pfister, Peng Ding, Sach Mukherjee, Jonas Peters

In many applications, practical constraints prevent measuring covariates and outcomes on the same units, resulting in unpaired data. We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe them jointly -- we either observe $X$ or $Y$. Under appropriate regularity conditions, the problem can be cast as an instrumental variable (IV) regression with the environment acting as a (possibly high-dimensional) instrument. When there are many environments but only a few observations per environment, standard two-sample IV estimators fail to be consistent. We propose a GMM-type estimator based on cross-fold sample splitting of the instrument–covariate sample that also applies in standard IV settings. We prove that it is consistent as the number of environments grows but the sample size per environment remains constant. We further extend the method to sparse causal effects via $\ell_1$-regularized estimation and post-selection refitting.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

QunJie Chen, Yufei Chen, Xiaodong Yue, Linye Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) show strong reasoning abilities, yet their reliability is hindered by hallucinations, where fluent reasoning becomes factually or logically incorrect. Most existing uncertainty-based detectors rely on sequence-level averaging, which ignores the step-wise dynamics of reasoning and often misclassifies hard-but-correct or easy-but-wrong samples. We propose a dynamic perspective that models reasoning as a trajectory on a latent \emph{Evidence Manifold}, where each step is supported by local evidence. Hallucinations are characterized as \emph{Evidence Drops}, i.e., sudden declines in local evidence support that indicate topological deviations from this manifold. Based on this insight, we design a training-free and model-agnostic detector that identifies hallucinations via the worst-case Evidence Drop and enables step-level error localization. Experiments on GSM8K, MATH, and ProcessBench show consistent improvements over sequence-level uncertainty baselines in selective accuracy and risk–coverage trade-offs.

Applications · Computer Vision

RuiQiang Zhang, Hengyi Wang, Chang Liu, Guanjie Wang, Zehua Ma, Weiming Zhang

Large-scale text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models excel at open-domain synthesis but still struggle with precise text rendering, especially for multi-line layouts, dense typography, and long-tailed scripts such as Chinese. Prior solutions typically necessitate costly retraining or impose rigid external layout constraints, often compromising aesthetic quality and flexibility. We propose **FreeText**, a training-free, plug-and-play framework that improves text rendering by leveraging intrinsic mechanisms of *Diffusion Transformer (DiT)* models. **FreeText** decomposes the problem into *where to write* and *what to write*. For the former, we localize writing regions by extracting token-wise spatial attribution from image-to-text attention, using sink-like tokens as stable spatial anchors and topology-aware refinement to produce high-confidence masks. For the latter, we introduce Spectral-Modulated Glyph Injection (SGMI), which injects a noise-aligned glyph prior with frequency-domain band-pass modulation to strengthen glyph structure and mitigate semantic leakage (rendering the concept instead of the word). Extensive experiments on Qwen-Image, FLUX.1-dev, and SD3 variants across longText-Benchmark, CVTG, and our CLT-Bench show consistent gains in text readability while maintaining semantic alignment and aesthetic quality, with modest inference overhead.

Haonan Wang, Jiaxiang Liu, Yurong Liu, Austin Wijaya, Tianle Zhou, Yifan Wu, Yijia Chen, Wanting You, Reya Vir, Daniela Pinto Veizaga 等

Recent large language models (LLMs) have shown rapid progress on reading-based question answering (QA), where the evidence is explicitly provided or trivially retrievable. In contrast, real-world questions are often not paired with accurate evidence documents. The useful evidence resides in a massive collection of data lakes, necessitating searching as a prerequisite for answering. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive benchmark that requires searching and reasoning over a large collection of data lakes. To this end, we introduce LakeQA, a comprehensive benchmark for search-centric question answering over data lakes that jointly emphasizes \emph{searching} and \emph{reasoning} capabilities. LakeQA is built on a heterogeneous collection of ~9.5 TB text resources from Wikipedia and open-source government data, spanning structured and unstructured data. To ensure the quality of LakeQA's tasks, each sample is annotated by at least one Ph.D level expert. Each task requires long-horizon multi-hop reasoning with implicit intermediate steps: agents need to discover the correct document(s) and then compose evidence across sources to produce the answer. Intensive experiment results on seven frontier LLMs have demonstrated that LakeQA is challenging. For instance, GPT-5.2 only obtains an exact matching score of 14.73% on LakeQA. Overall LakeQA provides a realistic testbed for developing LLM agents that can both \emph{find} and \emph{analyze} data in modern data lakes.

Probabilistic Methods · Monte Carlo and Sampling Methods

Denis Blessing, Lorenz Richter, Julius Berner, Egor Malitskiy, Gerhard Neumann

Sampling from unnormalized densities using diffusion models has emerged as a powerful paradigm. However, while recent approaches that use least-squares `matching' objectives have improved scalability, they often necessitate significant trade-offs, such as restricting prior distributions or relying on unstable optimization schemes. By generalizing these methods as special forms of fixed-point iterations rooted in Nelson's relation, we develop a new method that addresses these limitations. Our approach enables learning a stochastic transport map between arbitrary prior and target distributions with a single, scalable, and stable objective. Furthermore, we introduce a damped variant of this iteration that incorporates a regularization term to mitigate mode collapse. Empirically, we demonstrate that our method enables sampling at unprecedented scales while preserving mode diversity, achieving state-of-the-art results on complex synthetic densities and high-dimensional molecular benchmarks.

Deep Learning · Self-Supervised Learning

Jiwan Chung, Seon Joo Kim

A common assumption in representation learning is that globally well-distributed embeddings support robust and generalizable representations. This focus has shaped both training objectives and evaluation protocols, implicitly treating global geometry as a proxy for representational competence. While global geometry effectively encodes which elements are present, it is often insensitive to how they are composed. We investigate this limitation by testing the ability of geometric metrics to predict compositional binding across 21 vision encoders. We find that standard geometry-based statistics exhibit near-zero correlation with compositional binding. In contrast, functional sensitivity, as measured by the input-output Jacobian, reliably tracks this capability. We further provide an analytic account showing that this disparity arises from objective design, as existing losses explicitly constrain embedding geometry but leave the local input-output mapping unconstrained. These results suggest that global embedding geometry captures only a partial view of representational competence and establish functional sensitivity as a critical complementary axis for modeling composite structure.

Qi Li, Xinchao Wang

Enabling large language models (LLMs) to solve complex reasoning tasks is a key step toward artificial general intelligence. Recent work augments LLMs with external tools to enable agentic reasoning, achieving high utility and efficiency in a plug-and-play manner. However, the inherent vulnerabilities of such methods to malicious manipulation of the tool-calling process remain largely unexplored. In this work, we identify a tool-specific attack surface and propose Sponge Tool Attack (STA), which disrupts agentic reasoning solely by rewriting the input prompt under a strict query-only access assumption. Without any modification on the underlying model or the external tools, STA converts originally concise and efficient reasoning trajectories into unnecessarily verbose and convoluted ones before arriving at the final answer. This results in substantial computational overhead while remaining stealthy by preserving the original task semantics and user intent. To achieve this, we design STA as an iterative, multi-agent collaborative framework with explicit rewritten policy control, and generates benign-looking prompt rewrites from the original one with high semantic fidelity. Extensive experiments across 6 models (including both open-source models and closed-source APIs), 12 tools, 4 agentic frameworks, and 13 datasets spanning 5 domains validate the effectiveness of STA.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Fabian Kresse, Christoph Lampert

Controlling autonomous systems under real-world conditions often requires policies that can be evaluated with low latency and low energy requirements. Unfortunately, these conditions are at odds with the use of high-precision deep networks as controllers. In this work, we introduce Differentiable Weightless Controllers (DWCs), a symbolic-differentiable architecture that allows learning flexible non-linear yet highly efficient control policies. DWCs can be trained end-to-end by gradient-based techniques, yet compile directly into FPGA-compatible circuits with few- or even single-clock-cycle latency and nanojoule-level energy cost per action for the core computation. Across five MuJoCo benchmarks, including high-dimensional Humanoid, DWCs achieve returns competitive with standard deep policies (full precision or quantized neural networks). Furthermore, DWCs exhibit structurally sparse and interpretable connectivity patterns, enabling a direct inspection of which input values influence control decisions.

Theory · Online Learning and Bandits

Mehryar Mohri, Clayton Sanford, Jon Schneider, Kiran Vodrahalli, Yifan Wu

We consider the question of how to employ next-token prediction algorithms in adversarial online decision making environments. Specifically, if we train a next-token prediction model on a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over sequences of opponent actions, when is it the case that the induced online decision making algorithm (by approximately best responding to the model's predictions) has low adversarial regret (i.e., when is $\mathcal{D}$ a \emph{low-regret distribution})? For unbounded context windows (where the prediction made by the model can depend on all the actions taken by the adversary thus far), we show that although not every distribution $\mathcal{D}$ is a low-regret distribution, every distribution $\mathcal{D}$ is exponentially close (in TV distance) to one low-regret distribution, and hence sublinear regret can always be achieved at negligible cost to the accuracy of the original next-token prediction model. In contrast to this, for bounded context windows (where the prediction made by the model can depend only on the past $w$ actions taken by the adversary, as may be the case in modern transformer architectures), we show that there are some distributions $\mathcal{D}$ of opponent play that are $\Theta(1)$-far from any low-regret distribution $\mathcal{D'}$ (even when $w = \Omega(T)$ and such distributions exist). Finally, we complement these results by showing that the unbounded context robustification procedure can be implemented by layers of a standard transformer architecture, and provide empirical evidence that transformer models can be efficiently trained to represent these new low-regret distributions.

General Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Wenxiang Diao, Lei Wang, Andrew Busch, Jun Zhou, Yongsheng Gao

Video anomaly detection (VAD) is critical for surveillance systems, but current methods prioritize accuracy while ignoring the ethical risks of encoding sensitive biometric information. This neglect poses significant privacy concerns for real-world deployment. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Guided Orthogonal Projection Layer (G-OPL), a lightweight module designed to geometrically decouple and suppress sensitive attributes from latent features to produce representations focused on anomaly-relevant cues. We specifically target facial information as the primary sensitive attribute. Unlike gait or body pose, faces act as unique biometric identifiers that are tightly regulated and pose immediate risks of misuse, yet are rarely necessary for identifying abnormal behaviors. To achieve this, G-OPL utilizes a stable, QR-decomposition-based orthogonal projection mechanism guided by weak supervision (e.g., face presence) to actively filter privacy-sensitive subspaces while preserving task-relevant anomalies. we further propose a novel privacy-aware evaluation framework to rigorously quantify the trade-off between model utility and ethical alignment. Our analysis uncovers how projection layers filter sensitive information, why this improves transparency, and under what conditions ethical design also enhances robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach effectively minimizes privacy risks without compromising anomaly detection performance, offering a principled path toward trustworthy video analysis.

Yue Yang, Chenghao Huang, Hao Wang

Lagrangian-based methodologies are one of the fundamental paradigms of safe reinforcement learning (RL) for constrained Markov decision processes, particularly when dealing with multi-constraint cases. While the specific details of the methodologies may differ, with some using a single estimator for the overall mixed penalty term of the constraints and others using separate estimators for the constraints, the fundamental question of the theoretical validity of the methodologies has remained largely unexplored. The present paper performs the first theoretical analysis of the methodologies and proves that the use of the mixed critic structure leads to the presence of a bias due to the target drift of the Lagrange multipliers. On the other hand, the use of the dedicated critic structure, where separate critics are used for the reward function and the constraint functions, does not suffer from this bias. The theoretical analysis is supported with experiments on a realistic power system environment with multiple constraints, where the dedicated critic structure succeeds in satisfying the constraints, whereas the mixed critic structure fails.

General Machine Learning · Online Learning, Active Learning and Bandits

Salim I. Amoukou, Saumitra Mishra, Manuela Veloso

Bagging-based ensembles, most notably Adaptive Random Forests, are among the strongest performers for learning from data streams. A common denominator across these methods is their reliance on Hoeffding Trees as base learners, which grow incrementally by testing whether a candidate split is significantly better than its alternatives using concentration inequalities. Despite their empirical success, existing Hoeffding Trees variants lack valid statistical guarantees. Current analyses rely on fixed-sample concentration bounds, while split decisions are made using data-dependent stopping rules, which invalidates their guarantees and can drive the probabilty of incorrect splits to one. We introduce a principled alternative based on \emph{anytime-valid inference}. Our method provides: (i) anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams, including non-stationary settings; (ii) finite commitment time under a predictive advantage; and (iii) under stationary i.i.d.\ data, risk is monotone decreasing and strictly improves at every split. Empirically, we evaluate both standalone trees and their use within Adaptive Random Forests on non-stationary streams. Our method improves performance while producing substantially smaller trees.

Optimization · Discrete and Combinatorial Optimization

Yang Wu, Junran Pan, Yifan Zhang, Ning Xu, Fanshuo Zeng, Jian Cheng

Automatic Heuristic Design (AHD) has emerged as a transformative approach for solving combinatorial optimization problems. While recent Large Language Model (LLM)-based methods have shown promise, they predominantly rely on fixed evolutionary operators and struggle to effectively accumulate and reuse historical search experience. This paper proposes RefineEvo, a novel evolutionary framework that transforms AHD from a static trial-and-error process into a planning-guided, experience-driven system. RefineEvo introduces a Planner to dynamically schedule evolutionary operators and trigger refinement based on the current search state, and a Reflector to distill valuable lessons into a Bidirectional Experience Pool containing both positive insights and negative pitfalls. This synergistic framework enables the system to adapt its search tools to the evolving complexity of the problem and leverage trajectory-aware, situation-conditioned insights to guide generation. Experiments on several classic combinatorial optimization benchmarks demonstrate that RefineEvo consistently outperforms strong baselines. In particular, RefineEvo delivers superior solution quality while improving token efficiency, enabling more efficient and autonomous heuristic design. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/RefineEvo-FDC4.

Zixiao Wang, Yifei Shen, Huishuai Zhang

Many optimizers can be interpreted as steepest-descent methods under norm-induced geometries, and thus inherit corresponding implicit biases. We introduce Orthogonal Lion which combines spectral control from orthogonalized update directions with $\ell_\infty$-style coordinate control from sign updates. OLion forms a Lion-style momentum direction, approximately orthogonalizes it via a few Newton--Schulz iterations, and then applies an entrywise sign, providing an efficient approximation to taking a maximal step over the intersection of the spectral and $\ell_\infty$ constraint sets (a scaled Hadamard-like set for matrix parameters). Despite the strong nonlinearity of orthogonalization and sign, we prove convergence under a mild, empirically verified diagonal-isotropy assumption. Across large-scale language and vision training, including GPT-2 and Llama pretraining, SiT image pretraining, and supervised fine-tuning, OLion matches or outperforms AdamW and Muon under comparable tuning while using only momentum-level optimizer state, and it mitigates optimizer mismatch when fine-tuning AdamW-pretrained checkpoints.

Applications · Computer Vision

Mikołaj Zieliński, Krzysztof Byrski, Tomasz Szczepanik, Dominik Belter, Przemysław Spurek

Neural scene representations achieve high-fidelity rendering by encoding 3D scenes as continuous functions, but their latent spaces are typically implicit and globally entangled, making localized editing and physically grounded manipulation difficult. While several works introduce explicit control structures or point-based latent representations to improve editability, these approaches often suffer from limited locality, sensitivity to deformations, or visual artifacts. In this paper, we introduce Affine-Equivariant Kernel Space Encoding (EKS), a spatial encoding for neural radiance fields that provides localized, deformation-aware feature representations. Instead of querying latent features directly at discrete points or grid vertices, our encoding aggregates features through a field of anisotropic Gaussian kernels, each defining a localized region of influence. This kernel-based formulation enables stable feature interpolation under spatial transformations while preserving continuity and high reconstruction quality. To preserve detail without sacrificing editability, we further propose a training-time feature distillation mechanism that transfers information from multi-resolution hash grid encodings into the kernel field, yielding a compact and fully grid-free representation at inference. This enables intuitive, localized scene editing directly via Gaussian kernels without retraining, while maintaining high-quality rendering.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Yuxing Tian, Yiyan Qi, Fengran Mo, Weixu Zhang, Jian Guo, Jian-Yun Nie

Dynamic graph anomaly detection (DGAD) is critical for many real-world applications but remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled anomalies. Existing methods are either unsupervised or semi-supervised: unsupervised methods avoid the need for labeled anomalies but often produce ambiguous boundary, whereas semi-supervised methods can overfit to the limited labeled anomalies and generalize poorly to unseen anomalies. To address this gap, we consider a largely underexplored problem in DGAD: learning a discriminative boundary from normal/unlabeled data, while leveraging limited labeled anomalies \textbf{when available} without sacrificing generalization to unseen anomalies. To this end, we propose an effective, generalizable, and model-agnostic framework with three main components: (i) residual representation encoding that capture deviations between current interactions and their historical context, providing anomaly-relevant signals; (ii) a restriction loss that constrain the normal representations within an interval bounded by two co-centered hyperspheres, ensuring consistent scales while keeping anomalies separable; (iii) a bi-boundary optimization strategy that learns a discriminative and robust boundary using the normal log-likelihood distribution modeled by a normalizing flow. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our framework across diverse evaluation settings.

Applications · Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences

Yuejiang Yu, Langwen Huang, Alexandru Calotoiu, Torsten Hoefler

Data-driven models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. To optimize training efficiency and model performance, this paper analyzes empirical scaling laws within this domain. We investigate the relationship between model performance (validation loss) and three key factors: model size ($N$), dataset size ($D$), and compute budget ($C$). Across a range of models, we find that Aurora exhibits the strongest data-scaling behavior: increasing the training dataset by 10× reduces validation loss by up to 3.2×. GraphCast demonstrates the highest parameter efficiency, yet suffers from limited hardware utilization. Our compute-optimal analysis indicates that, under fixed compute budgets, allocating resources to longer training durations yields greater performance gains than increasing model size. Furthermore, we analyze model shape and uncover scaling behaviors that differ fundamentally from those observed in language models: weather forecasting models consistently favor increased width over depth. These findings suggest that future weather models should prioritize wider architectures and larger effective training datasets to maximize predictive performance.\footnote{Code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/scaling-laws-weather-model-8560/}}

Applications · Language, Speech and Dialog

Lisa Alazraki, Shen, Yoram Bachrach, Akhil Mathur

Small language models are viewed as a promising, cost-effective approach to agentic AI, yet how their performance scales with task complexity remains unclear. While smaller agents match larger ones on simple tasks, it is unknown when large models become necessary and how to better leverage small agents. In this work, we show that small agents fail to scale with task complexity on deep search and coding tasks, and introduce *Strategy Auctions for Workload Efficiency* (*SALE*), a framework inspired by freelancer marketplaces. In SALE, agents bid with strategic plans scored by a cost–value mechanism and refined via shared auction memory, enabling per-task routing and continual self-improvement without training a router. On average, SALE reduces reliance on the largest agent by 53%, lowers overall cost by 35%, and consistently improves pass@1 with only a negligible token overhead. In contrast, established routers either underperform the largest agent or fail to reduce cost. These results suggest that small agents can be effectively “scaled up” through coordinated allocation and test-time self-improvement. More broadly, they motivate a systems-level view of agentic AI in which gains come less from ever-larger individual models and more from market-inspired coordination mechanisms that organize heterogeneous agents into efficient, adaptive ecosystems.

Social Aspects · Safety

Ke Liu, Jiwei Wei, Wenyu Zhang, Shuchang Zhou, Ruikun Chai, Yutao Dai, Chaoning Zhang, Yang Yang

With rapid advances in audio-visual generative models, reliable forgery detection becomes increasingly critical. Existing methods for audio-visual deepfake detection typically rely on cross-modal inconsistencies. In singing, rhythmic vocalization weakens this coupling and introduces a nontrivial domain shift, substantially degrading detection performance. We construct the Singing Head DeepFake (SHDF) dataset using rhythm-aware generative models to fill the gap in singing benchmarks. To cope with cross-scenario domain shifts, we propose a Text-guided Audio-Visual Forgery Detection (T-AVFD) framework that generalizes across both talking and singing scenarios. T-AVFD comprises a facial authenticity pattern learner and a multi-modal differential weight learning module. The pattern learner aligns facial features with multi-granularity textual descriptions to learn generalizable authenticity patterns. The weight learning module preserves intrinsic audio–visual consistency and adaptively integrates it with authenticity patterns via differential weighting. Extensive experiments on multiple talking head deepfake datasets and SHDF show consistent improvements over existing baselines and strong robustness under diverse perturbations.

Optimization · Stochastic

Shixin Liu, Ming Gao, Jian Hu

Stochastic programming is often challenged by epistemic uncertainty, where critical probability distributions are poorly characterized or unknown due to a lack of data. To address this, we pioneer a novel framework for stochastic programming that minimizes an upper confidence bound (UCB) on the expected random cost, acting as a robustness-seeking strategy. Our central contribution is the Average Percentile Upper Bound (APUB), a new statistical construct that serves as both a statistically rigorous upper bound for population means and an approximate risk metric for sample means. We rigorously prove the asymptotic correctness and consistency of APUB, establishing a reliable foundation for data-driven decision-making. We also develop practical solution methods, including a bootstrap sampling approximation method and an L-shaped method, to solve APUB optimization problems, with a specific focus on two-stage linear stochastic optimization with random recourse. Empirical demonstrations on a two-stage product mix problem reveal the significant benefits of our APUB optimization framework, which fortifies the process against epistemic uncertainty while reinforcing key decision-making attributes like reliability and consistency.