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Markus Frohmann, Igor Sterner, Ivan Vulić, Benjamin Minixhofer, Markus Schedl

Segmenting text into sentences plays an early and crucial role in many NLP systems. This is commonly achieved by using rule-based or statistical methods relying on lexical features such as punctuation. Although some recent works no longer exclusively rely on punctuation, we find that no prior method achieves all of (i) robustness to missing punctuation, (ii) effective adaptability to new domains, and (iii) high efficiency. We introduce a new model — Segment any Text (SaT) — to solve this problem. To enhance robustness, we propose a new pretraining scheme that ensures less reliance on punctuation. To address adaptability, we introduce an extra stage of parameter-efficient fine-tuning, establishing state-of-the-art performance in distinct domains such as verses from lyrics and legal documents. Along the way, we introduce architectural modifications that result in a threefold gain in speed over the previous state of the art and solve spurious reliance on context far in the future. Finally, we introduce a variant of our model with fine-tuning on a diverse, multilingual mixture of sentence-segmented data, acting as a drop-in replacement and enhancement for existing segmentation tools. Overall, our contributions provide a universal approach for segmenting any text. Our method outperforms all baselines — including strong LLMs — across 8 corpora spanning diverse domains and languages, especially in practically relevant situations where text is poorly formatted. Our models and code, including documentation, are readily available at https://github.com/segment-any-text/wtpsplit under the MIT license.

Andrea Vallebueno, Cassandra Handan-Nader, Christopher D Manning, Daniel E. Ho

Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe, one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.

Farhan Samir, Chan Young Park, Anjalie Field, Vered Shwartz, Yulia Tsvetkov

To explain social phenomena and identify systematic biases, much research in computational social science focuses on comparative text analyses. These studies often rely on coarse corpus-level statistics or local word-level analyses, mainly in English. We introduce the InfoGap method—an efficient and reliable approach to locating information gaps and inconsistencies in articles at the fact level, across languages. We evaluate InfoGap by analyzing LGBT people’s portrayals, across 2.7K biography pages on English, Russian, and French Wikipedias. We find large discrepancies in factual coverage across the languages. Moreover, our analysis reveals that biographical facts carrying negative connotations are more likely to be highlighted in Russian Wikipedia. Crucially, InfoGap both facilitates large scale analyses, and pinpoints local document- and fact-level information gaps, laying a new foundation for targeted and nuanced comparative language analysis at scale.

Yebowen Hu, Kaiqiang Song, Sangwoo Cho, Xiaoyang Wang, Wenlin Yao, Hassan Foroosh, Dong Yu, Fei Liu

Reasoning is most powerful when an LLM accurately aggregates relevant information. We examine the critical role of information aggregation in reasoning by requiring the LLM to analyze sports narratives. To succeed at this task, an LLM must infer points from actions, identify related entities, attribute points accurately to players and teams, and compile key statistics to draw conclusions. We conduct comprehensive experiments with real NBA basketball data and present SportsGen, a new method to synthesize game narratives. By synthesizing data, we can rigorously evaluate LLMs’ reasoning capabilities under complex scenarios with varying narrative lengths and density of information. Our findings show that most models, including GPT-4o, often fail to accurately aggregate basketball scores due to frequent scoring patterns. Open-source models like Llama-3 further suffer from significant score hallucinations. Finally, the effectiveness of reasoning is influenced by narrative complexity, information density, and domain-specific terms, highlighting the challenges in analytical reasoning tasks.

Yiqiao Jin, Qinlin Zhao, Yiyang Wang, Hao Chen, Kaijie Zhu, Yijia Xiao, Jindong Wang

Peer review is fundamental to the integrity and advancement of scientific publication. Traditional methods of peer review analyses often rely on exploration and statistics of existing peer review data, which do not adequately address the multivariate nature of the process, account for the latent variables, and are further constrained by privacy concerns due to the sensitive nature of the data. We introduce AgentReview, the first large language model (LLM) based peer review simulation framework, which effectively disentangles the impacts of multiple latent factors and addresses the privacy issue. Our study reveals significant insights, including a notable 37.1% variation in paper decisions due to reviewers’ biases, supported by sociological theories such as the social influence theory, altruism fatigue, and authority bias. We believe that this study could offer valuable insights to improve the design of peer review mechanisms.

Amir Taubenfeld, Yaniv Dover, Roi Reichart, Ariel Goldstein

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), has opened exciting possibilities for constructing computational simulations designed to replicate human behavior accurately. Current research suggests that LLM-based agents become increasingly human-like in their performance, sparking interest in using these AI agents as substitutes for human participants in behavioral studies. However, LLMs are complex statistical learners without straightforward deductive rules, making them prone to unexpected behaviors. Hence, it is crucial to study and pinpoint the key behavioral distinctions between humans and LLM-based agents. In this study, we highlight the limitations of LLMs in simulating human interactions, particularly focusing on LLMs’ ability to simulate political debates on topics that are important aspects of people’s day-to-day lives and decision-making processes. Our findings indicate a tendency for LLM agents to conform to the model’s inherent social biases despite being directed to debate from certain political perspectives. This tendency results in behavioral patterns that seem to deviate from well-established social dynamics among humans. We reinforce these observations using an automatic self-fine-tuning method, which enables us to manipulate the biases within the LLM and demonstrate that agents subsequently align with the altered biases. These results underscore the need for further research to develop methods that help agents overcome these biases, a critical step toward creating more realistic simulations.

Privacy

Kristjan Greenewald, Yuancheng Yu, Hao Wang, Kai Xu

Training generative models with differential privacy (DP) typically involves injecting noise into gradient updates or adapting the discriminator's training procedure. As a result, such approaches often struggle with hyper-parameter tuning and convergence. We consider the \emph{slicing privacy mechanism} that injects noise into random low-dimensional projections of the private data, and provide strong privacy guarantees for it. These noisy projections are used for training generative models.To enable optimizing generative models using this DP approach, we introduce the \emph{smoothed-sliced $f$-divergence} and show it enjoys statistical consistency. Moreover, we present a kernel-based estimator for this divergence, circumventing the need for adversarial training. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach can generate synthetic data of higher quality compared with baselines. Beyond performance improvement, our method, by sidestepping the need for noisy gradients, offers data scientists the flexibility to adjust generator architecture and hyper-parameters, run the optimization over any number of epochs, and even restart the optimization process---all without incurring additional privacy costs.

Time Series

Weiwei Ye, Songgaojun Deng, Qiaosha Zou, Ning Gui

Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns. To address the non-stationarity, reversible instance normalization has been recently proposed to alleviate impacts from the trend with certain statistical measures, e.g., mean and variance. Although they demonstrate improved predictive accuracy, they are limited to expressing basic trends and are incapable of handling seasonal patterns. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a new instance normalization solution, called frequency adaptive normalization (FAN), which extends instance normalization in handling both dynamic trend and seasonal patterns. Specifically, we employ the Fourier transform to identify instance-wise predominant frequent components that cover most non-stationary factors. Furthermore, the discrepancy of those frequency components between inputs and outputs is explicitly modeled as a prediction task with a simple MLP model. FAN is a model-agnostic method that can be applied to arbitrary predictive backbones. We instantiate FAN on four widely used forecasting models as the backbone and evaluate their prediction performance improvements on eight benchmark datasets. FAN demonstrates significant performance advancement, achieving 7.76\%$\sim$37.90\% average improvements in MSE. Our code is publicly available at http://github.com/icannotnamemyself/FAN.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Xilin He, Jingyu Hu, Qinliang Lin, Cheng Luo, Weicheng Xie, Siyang Song, Muhammad Haris Khan, Linlin Shen

Domain generalization methods aim to learn transferable knowledge from source domains that can generalize well to unseen target domains. Recent studies show that neural networks frequently suffer from a simplicity-biased learning behavior which leads to over-reliance on specific frequency sets, namely as frequency shortcuts, instead of semantic information, resulting in poor generalization performance. Despite previous data augmentation techniques successfully enhancing generalization performances, they intend to apply more frequency shortcuts, thereby causing hallucinations of generalization improvement.In this paper, we aim to prevent such learning behavior of applying frequency shortcuts from a data-driven perspective. Given the theoretical justification of models' biased learning behavior on different spatial frequency components, which is based on the dataset frequency properties, we argue that the learning behavior on various frequency components could be manipulated by changing the dataset statistical structure in the Fourier domain. Intuitively, as frequency shortcuts are hidden in the dominant and highly dependent frequencies of dataset structure, dynamically perturbating the over-reliance frequency components could prevent the application of frequency shortcuts.To this end, we propose two effective data augmentation modules designed to collaboratively and adaptively adjust the frequency characteristic of the dataset, aiming to dynamically influence the learning behavior of the model and ultimately serving as a strategy to mitigate shortcut learning. Our code will be made publicly available.

Generative Models

Hui-Po Wang, Mario Fritz

Despite the widespread use of statistical prior models in various fields, such models for neural network gradients have long been overlooked. The inherent challenge stems from their high-dimensional structures and complex interdependencies, which complicate effective modeling. In this work, we demonstrate the potential of large language models (LLMs) to act as gradient priors in a zero-shot setting. We examine the property by considering lossless gradient compression -- a critical application in distributed learning -- that depends heavily on precise probability modeling. To achieve this, we introduce LM-GC, a novel method that integrates LLMs with arithmetic coding. Our technique converts plain gradients into text-like formats, enhancing token efficiency by up to 38 times compared to their plain representations. We ensure that this data conversion maintains a close alignment with the structure of plain gradients and the symbols commonly recognized by LLMs. Our experiments indicate that LM-GC surpasses existing state-of-the-art lossless compression methods, improving compression rates by 10% up to 17.2% across various datasets and architectures. Additionally, our approach shows promising compatibility with lossy compression techniques such as quantization and sparsification. These findings highlight the significant potential of LLMs as a model for effectively handling gradients. Code is available at https://github.com/hui-po-wang/LM-GC.

Computational Biology

Sebastian Prillo, Wilson Wu, Yun Song

Amino acid substitution rate matrices are fundamental to statistical phylogenetics and evolutionary biology. Estimating them typically requires reconstructed trees for massive amounts of aligned proteins, which poses a major computational bottleneck. In this paper, we develop a near-linear time method to estimate these rate matrices from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) alone, thereby speeding up computation by orders of magnitude. Our method relies on a near-linear time cherry reconstruction algorithm which we call FastCherries and it can be easily applied to MSAs with millions of sequences. On both simulated and real data, we demonstrate the speed and accuracy of our method as applied to the classical model of protein evolution. By leveraging the unprecedented scalability of our method, we develop a new, rich phylogenetic model called SiteRM, which can estimate a general site-specific rate matrix for each column of an MSA. Remarkably, in variant effect prediction for both clinical and deep mutational scanning data in ProteinGym, we show that despite being an independent-sites model, our SiteRM model outperforms large protein language models that learn complex residue-residue interactions between different sites. We attribute our increased performance to conceptual advances in our probabilistic treatment of evolutionary data and our ability to handle extremely large MSAs. We anticipate that our work will have a lasting impact across both statistical phylogenetics and computational variant effect prediction. FastCherries and SiteRM are implemented in the CherryML package https://github.com/songlab-cal/CherryML.

Reinforcement Learning · Function Approximation

Long-Fei Li, Yu-Jie Zhang, Peng Zhao, Zhi-Hua Zhou

We study a new class of MDPs that employs multinomial logit (MNL) function approximation to ensure valid probability distributions over the state space. Despite its significant benefits, incorporating the non-linear function raises substantial challenges in both *statistical* and *computational* efficiency. The best-known result of Hwang and Oh [2023] has achieved an $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\kappa^{-1}dH^2\sqrt{K})$ regret upper bound, where $\kappa$ is a problem-dependent quantity, $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the episode length, and $K$ is the number of episodes. However, we observe that $\kappa^{-1}$ exhibits polynomial dependence on the number of reachable states, which can be as large as the state space size in the worst case and thus undermines the motivation for function approximation. Additionally, their method requires storing all historical data and the time complexity scales linearly with the episode count, which is computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a statistically efficient algorithm that achieves a regret of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(dH^2\sqrt{K} + \kappa^{-1}d^2H^2)$, eliminating the dependence on $\kappa^{-1}$ in the dominant term for the first time. We then address the computational challenges by introducing an enhanced algorithm that achieves the same regret guarantee but with only constant cost. Finally, we establish the first lower bound for this problem, justifying the optimality of our results in $d$ and $K$.

Zhaoqiang Liu, Wen Li, Junren Chen

Generalized eigenvalue problems (GEPs) find applications in various fields of science and engineering. For example, principal component analysis, Fisher's discriminant analysis, and canonical correlation analysis are specific instances of GEPs and are widely used in statistical data processing. In this work, we study GEPs under generative priors, assuming that the underlying leading generalized eigenvector lies within the range of a Lipschitz continuous generative model. Under appropriate conditions, we show that any optimal solution to the corresponding optimization problems attains the optimal statistical rate. Moreover, from a computational perspective, we propose an iterative algorithm called the Projected Rayleigh Flow Method (PRFM) to approximate the optimal solution. We theoretically demonstrate that under suitable assumptions, PRFM converges linearly to an estimated vector that achieves the optimal statistical rate. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Ruiqi Zhong, Heng Wang, Dan Klein, Jacob Steinhardt

To make sense of massive data, we often first fit simplified models and then interpret the parameters; for example, we cluster the text embeddings and then interpret the mean parameters of each cluster.However, these parameters are often high-dimensional and hard to interpret.To make model parameters directly interpretable, we introduce a family of statistical models---including clustering, time series, and classification models---parameterized by *natural language predicates*. For example, a cluster of text about COVID could be parameterized by the predicate ``*discusses COVID*''.To learn these statistical models effectively, we develop a model-agnostic algorithm that optimizes continuous relaxations of predicate parameters with gradient descent and discretizes them by prompting language models (LMs).Finally, we apply our framework to a wide range of problems: taxonomizing user chat dialogues, characterizing how they evolve across time, finding categories where one language model is better than the other, clustering math problems based on subareas, and explaining visual features in memorable images.Our framework is highly versatile, applicable to both textual and visual domains, can be easily steered to focus on specific properties (e.g. subareas), and explains sophisticated concepts that classical methods (e.g. n-gram analysis) struggle to produce.

Deep Learning · Theory

Yicheng Li, Qian Lin

It is well known that eigenfunctions of a kernel play a crucial role in kernel regression. Through several examples, we demonstrate that even with the same set of eigenfunctions, the order of these functions significantly impacts regression outcomes. Simplifying the model by diagonalizing the kernel, we introduce an over-parameterized gradient descent in the realm of sequence model to capture the effects of various orders of a fixed set of eigen-functions. This method is designed to explore the impact of varying eigenfunction orders. Our theoretical results show that the over-parameterization gradient flow can adapt to the underlying structure of the signal and significantly outperform the vanilla gradient flow method. Moreover, we also demonstrate that deeper over-parameterization can further enhance the generalization capability of the model. These results not only provide a new perspective on the benefits of over-parameterization and but also offer insights into the adaptivity and generalization potential of neural networks beyond the kernel regime.

Theory · Statistics

Diyang Li

Conformal prediction converts nearly any point estimator into a prediction interval under standard assumptions while ensuring valid coverage. However, the extensive computational demands of full conformal prediction are daunting in practice, as it necessitates a comprehensive number of trainings across the entire latent label space. Unfortunately, existing efforts to expedite conformalization often carry strong assumptions and are developed specifically for certain models, or they only offer approximate solution sets. To address this gap, we develop a method for fast exact conformalization of generalized statistical estimation. Our analysis reveals that the structure of the solution path is inherently piecewise smooth, and indicates that utilizing second-order information of difference equations suffices to approximate the entire solution spectrum arbitrarily. We provide a unified view that not only encompasses existing work but also attempts to offer geometric insights. Practically, our framework integrates seamlessly with well-studied numerical solvers. The significant speedups of our algorithm as compared to the existing standard methods are demonstrated across numerous benchmarks.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Xingchi Li, Guanxun Li, Xianyang Zhang

Watermarking is a technique that involves embedding nearly unnoticeable statistical signals within generated content to help trace its source. This work focuses on a scenario where an untrusted third-party user sends prompts to a trusted language model (LLM) provider, who then generates a text from their LLM with a watermark. This setup makes it possible for a detector to later identify the source of the text if the user publishes it. The user can modify the generated text by substitutions, insertions, or deletions. Our objective is to develop a statistical method to detect if a published text is LLM-generated from the perspective of a detector. We further propose a methodology to segment the published text into watermarked and non-watermarked sub-strings. The proposed approach is built upon randomization tests and change point detection techniques. We demonstrate that our method ensures Type I and Type II error control and can accurately identify watermarked sub-strings by finding the corresponding change point locations. To validate our technique, we apply it to texts generated by several language models with prompts extracted from Google's C4 dataset and obtain encouraging numerical results. We release all code publicly at https://github.com/doccstat/llm-watermark-cpd.

Ziyu Xu, Nikos Karampatziakis, Paul Mineiro

Rigorously establishing the safety of black-box machine learning models with respect to critical risk measures is important for providing guarantees about the behavior of the model.Recently, a notion of a risk controlling prediction set (RCPS) has been introduced by Bates et. al. (JACM '24) for producing prediction sets that are statistically guaranteed to have low risk from machine learning models.Our method extends this notion to the sequential setting, where we provide guarantees even when the data is collected adaptively, and ensures the risk guarantee is anytime-valid, i.e., simultaneously holds at all time steps. Further, we propose a framework for constructing RCPSes for active labeling, i.e., allowing one to use a labeling policy that chooses whether to query the true label for each received data point, and ensures the expected proportion data points whose labels are queried are below a predetermined label budget. We also describe how to use predictors (e.g., the machine learning model we are providing risk control guarantees for) to further improve the utility of our RCPSes by estimating the expected risk conditioned on the covariates.We characterize the optimal choices of label policy under a fixed label budget, and predictor, and show a regret result that relates the estimation error of the optimal labeling policy and predictor to the wealth process that underlies our RCPSes.Lastly, we present practical ways of formulating label policies and we empirically show that our label policies use fewer labels to reach higher utility than naive baseline labeling strategies on both simulations and real data.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Kernel methods

Albert Gong, Kyuseong Choi, Raaz Dwivedi

The kernel thinning algorithm of Dwivedi & Mackey (2024) provides a better-than-i.i.d. compression of a generic set of points. By generating high-fidelity coresets of size significantly smaller than the input points, KT is known to speed up unsupervised tasks like Monte Carlo integration, uncertainty quantification, and non-parametric hypothesis testing, with minimal loss in statistical accuracy. In this work, we generalize the KT algorithm to speed up supervised learning problems involving kernel methods. Specifically, we combine two classical algorithms---Nadaraya-Watson (NW) regression or kernel smoothing, and kernel ridge regression (KRR)---with KT to provide a quadratic speed-up in both training and inference times. We show how distribution compression with KT in each setting reduces to constructing an appropriate kernel, and introduce the Kernel-Thinned NW and Kernel-Thinned KRR estimators. We prove that KT-based regression estimators enjoy significantly superior computational efficiency over the full-data estimators and improved statistical efficiency over i.i.d. subsampling of the training data. En route, we also provide a novel multiplicative error guarantee for compressing with KT. We validate our design choices with both simulations and real data experiments.

Causality

Joowon Lee, Jared Huling, Guanhua Chen

Estimating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is fundamental in causal inference, particularly for precision medicine applications. Traditional ITR estimation methods rely on inverse probability weighting (IPW) to address confounding factors and $L_{1}$-penalization for simplicity and interpretability. However, IPW can introduce statistical bias without precise propensity score modeling, while $L_1$-penalization makes the objective non-smooth, leading to computational bias and requiring subgradient methods. In this paper, we propose a unified ITR estimation framework formulated as a constrained, weighted, and smooth convex optimization problem. The optimal ITR can be robustly and effectively computed by projected gradient descent. Our comprehensive theoretical analysis reveals that weights that balance the spectrum of a `weighted design matrix' improve both the optimization and likelihood landscapes, yielding improved computational and statistical estimation guarantees. In particular, this is achieved by distributional covariate balancing weights, which are model-free alternatives to IPW. Extensive simulations and applications demonstrate that our framework achieves significant gains in both robustness and effectiveness for ITR learning against existing methods.