To make sense of massive data, we often first fit simplified models and then interpret the parameters; for example, we cluster the text embeddings and then interpret the mean parameters of each cluster.However, these parameters are often high-dimensional and hard to interpret.To make model parameters directly interpretable, we introduce a family of statistical models---including clustering, time series, and classification models---parameterized by *natural language predicates*. For example, a cluster of text about COVID could be parameterized by the predicate ``*discusses COVID*''.To learn these statistical models effectively, we develop a model-agnostic algorithm that optimizes continuous relaxations of predicate parameters with gradient descent and discretizes them by prompting language models (LMs).Finally, we apply our framework to a wide range of problems: taxonomizing user chat dialogues, characterizing how they evolve across time, finding categories where one language model is better than the other, clustering math problems based on subareas, and explaining visual features in memorable images.Our framework is highly versatile, applicable to both textual and visual domains, can be easily steered to focus on specific properties (e.g. subareas), and explains sophisticated concepts that classical methods (e.g. n-gram analysis) struggle to produce.
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Generative Models · Diffusion models
Recent advancements in diffusion models and diffusion bridges primarily focus on finite-dimensional spaces, yet many real-world problems necessitate operations in infinite-dimensional function spaces for more natural and interpretable formulations. In this paper, we present a theory of stochastic optimal control (SOC) tailored to infinite-dimensional spaces, aiming to extend diffusion-based algorithms to function spaces. Specifically, we demonstrate how Doob’s $h$-transform, the fundamental tool for constructing diffusion bridges, can be derived from the SOC perspective and expanded to infinite dimensions. This expansion presents a challenge, as infinite-dimensional spaces typically lack closed-form densities. Leveraging our theory, we establish that solving the optimal control problem with a specific objective function choice is equivalent to learning diffusion-based generative models. We propose two applications: 1) learning bridges between two infinite-dimensional distributions and 2) generative models for sampling from an infinite-dimensional distribution. Our approach proves effective for diverse problems involving continuous function space representations, such as resolution-free images, time-series data, and probability density functions.
Computer Vision · Image Generation
Recently, a series of diffusion-aware distillation algorithms have emerged to alleviate the computational overhead associated with the multi-step inference process of Diffusion Models (DMs). Current distillation techniques often dichotomize into two distinct aspects: i) ODE Trajectory Preservation; and ii) ODE Trajectory Reformulation. However, these approaches suffer from severe performance degradation or domain shifts. To address these limitations, we propose Hyper-SD, a novel framework that synergistically amalgamates the advantages of ODE Trajectory Preservation and Reformulation, while maintaining near-lossless performance during step compression. Firstly, we introduce Trajectory Segmented Consistency Distillation to progressively perform consistent distillation within pre-defined time-step segments, which facilitates the preservation of the original ODE trajectory from a higher-order perspective. Secondly, we incorporate human feedback learning to boost the performance of the model in a low-step regime and mitigate the performance loss incurred by the distillation process. Thirdly, we integrate score distillation to further improve the low-step generation capability of the model and offer the first attempt to leverage a unified LoRA to support the inference process at all steps. Extensive experiments and user studies demonstrate that Hyper-SD achieves SOTA performance from 1 to 8 inference steps for both SDXL and SD1.5. For example, Hyper-SDXL surpasses SDXL-Lightning by +0.68 in CLIP Score and +0.51 in Aes Score in the 1-step inference.
Time Series
Given the ubiquitous presence of time series data across various domains, precise forecasting of time series holds significant importance and finds widespread real-world applications such as energy, weather, healthcare, etc. While numerous forecasters have been proposed using different network architectures, the Transformer-based models have state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. However, forecasters based on Transformers are still suffering from vulnerability to high-frequency signals, efficiency in computation, and bottleneck in full-spectrum utilization, which essentially are the cornerstones for accurately predicting time series with thousands of points. In this paper, we explore a novel perspective of enlightening signal processing for deep time series forecasting. Inspired by the filtering process, we introduce one simple yet effective network, namely FilterNet, built upon our proposed learnable frequency filters to extract key informative temporal patterns by selectively passing or attenuating certain components of time series signals. Concretely, we propose two kinds of learnable filters in the FilterNet: (i) Plain shaping filter, that adopts a universal frequency kernel for signal filtering and temporal modeling; (ii) Contextual shaping filter, that utilizes filtered frequencies examined in terms of its compatibility with input signals fordependency learning. Equipped with the two filters, FilterNet can approximately surrogate the linear and attention mappings widely adopted in time series literature, while enjoying superb abilities in handling high-frequency noises and utilizing the whole frequency spectrum that is beneficial for forecasting. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on eight time series forecasting benchmarks, and experimental results have demonstrated our superior performance in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency compared with state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at$^1$.
Neuroscience, Cognitive Science
We introduce *Brain-JEPA*, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: **Brain Gradient Positioning** and **Spatiotemporal Masking**. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.
Robotics
Data-driven autonomous driving motion generation tasks are frequently impacted by the limitations of dataset size and the domain gap between datasets, which precludes their extensive application in real-world scenarios. To address this issue, we introduce SMART, a novel autonomous driving motion generation paradigm that models vectorized map and agent trajectory data into discrete sequence tokens. These tokens are then processed through a decoder-only transformer architecture to train for the next token prediction task across spatial-temporal series. This GPT-style method allows the model to learn the motion distribution in real driving scenarios. SMART achieves state-of-the-art performance across most of the metrics on the generative Sim Agents challenge, ranking 1st on the leaderboards of Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD), demonstrating remarkable inference speed. Moreover, SMART represents the generative model in the autonomous driving motion domain, exhibiting zero-shot generalization capabilities: Using only the NuPlan dataset for training and WOMD for validation, SMART achieved a competitive score of 0.72 on the Sim Agents challenge. Lastly, we have collected over 1 billion motion tokens from multiple datasets, validating the model's scalability. These results suggest that SMART has initially emulated two important properties: scalability and zero-shot generalization, and preliminarily meets the needs of large-scale real-time simulation applications. We have released all the code to promote the exploration of models for motion generation in the autonomous driving field. The source code is available at https://github.com/rainmaker22/SMART.
Time Series
Large pre-trained models excel in zero/few-shot learning for language and vision tasks but face challenges in multivariate time series (TS) forecasting due to diverse data characteristics. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on developing pre-trained TS forecasting models. These models, whether built from scratch or adapted from large language models (LLMs), excel in zero/few-shot forecasting tasks. However, they are limited by slow performance, high computational demands, and neglect of cross-channel and exogenous correlations. To address this, we introduce Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a compact model (starting from 1M parameters) with effective transfer learning capabilities, trained exclusively on public TS datasets. TTM, based on the light-weight TSMixer architecture, incorporates innovations like adaptive patching, diverse resolution sampling, and resolution prefix tuning to handle pre-training on varied dataset resolutions with minimal model capacity. Additionally, it employs multi-level modeling to capture channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning. TTM outperforms existing popular benchmarks in zero/few-shot forecasting by (4-40\%), while reducing computational requirements significantly. Moreover, TTMs are lightweight and can be executed even on CPU-only machines, enhancing usability and fostering wider adoption in resource-constrained environments. The model weights for reproducibility and research use are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm/ttm-research-r2/, while enterprise-use weights under the Apache license can be accessed as follows: the initial TTM-Q variant at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r1, and the latest variants (TTM-B, TTM-E, TTM-A) weights are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2. The source code for the TTM model along with the usage scripts are available at https://github.com/ibm-granite/granite-tsfm/tree/main/tsfm_public/models/tinytimemixer
Time Series
This paper introduces a novel approach that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative Agents to enhance time series forecasting by reasoning across both text and time series data. With language as a medium, our method adaptively integrates social events into forecasting models, aligning news content with time series fluctuations to provide richer insights. Specifically, we utilize LLM-based agents to iteratively filter out irrelevant news and employ human-like reasoning to evaluate predictions. This enables the model to analyze complex events, such as unexpected incidents and shifts in social behavior, and continuously refine the selection logic of news and the robustness of the agent's output. By integrating selected news events with time series data, we fine-tune a pre-trained LLM to predict sequences of digits in time series. The results demonstrate significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, suggesting a potential paradigm shift in time series forecasting through the effective utilization of unstructured news data.
Optimization · Large Scale, Parallel and Distributed
Larger transformer models perform better on various downstream tasks but require more cost to scale up the model size. To efficiently enlarge models, the Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) architecture is widely adopted, which consists of a gate network and a series of experts and keep the training cost constant by routing the input data to a fixed number of experts instead of all.In existing large-scale MoE training systems, experts would be distributed among different GPUs for parallelization, and thus input data requires additional all-to-all communication to access the target expert and conduct corresponding computation. However, upon evaluating the training process of three mainstream MoE models on commonly used GPU clusters, we found that the all-to-all communication ratio averaged around 45\%, which significantly hinders the training efficiency and scalability of MoE models.In this paper, we propose LSH-MoE, a communication-efficient MoE training framework using locality-sensitive hashing (LSH). We first present the problems of scaling MoE training in existing systems and highlight the potential of exploiting token similarity to facilitate data compression.Then, we introduce an efficient LSH-based compression technique, which utilizes the cross-polytope hashing for rapid clustering and implements a residual-based error compensation scheme to alleviate the adverse impact of compression. To verify the effectiveness of our methods, we conduct experiments on both language models (e.g., RoBERTa, GPT, and T5) and vision models (e.g., Swin) for both pre-training and fine-tuning tasks. The results demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms its counterparts across different tasks by 1.28-2.2$\times$ of speedup.
Time Series
Mixed time series (MiTS) comprising both continuous variables (CVs) and discrete variables (DVs) are frequently encountered yet under-explored in time series analysis. Essentially, CVs and DVs exhibit different temporal patterns and distribution types. Overlooking these heterogeneities would lead to insufficient and imbalanced representation learning, bringing biased results. This paper addresses the problem with two insights: 1) DVs may originate from intrinsic latent continuous variables (LCVs), which lose fine-grained information due to extrinsic discretization; 2) LCVs and CVs share similar temporal patterns and interact spatially. Considering these similarities and interactions, we propose a general MiTS analysis framework MiTSformer, which recovers LCVs behind DVs for sufficient and balanced spatial-temporal modeling by designing two essential inductive biases: 1) hierarchically aggregating multi-scale temporal context information to enrich the information granularity of DVs; 2) adaptively learning the aggregation processes via the adversarial guidance from CVs. Subsequently, MiTSformer captures complete spatial-temporal dependencies within and across LCVs and CVs via cascaded self- and cross-attention blocks. Empirically, MiTSformer achieves consistent SOTA on five mixed time series analysis tasks, including classification, extrinsic regression, anomaly detection, imputation, and long-term forecasting. The code is available at https://github.com/chunhuiz/MiTSformer.
Time Series
Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for uncertainty quantification, but its application to time-series data is constrained by the violation of the exchangeability assumption. Current solutions for time-series prediction typically operate in the output space and rely on manually selected weights to address distribution drift, leading to overly conservative predictions. To enable dynamic weight learning in the semantically rich latent space, we introduce a novel approach called Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features (CT-SSF). CT-SSF utilizes the inductive bias in deep representation learning to dynamically adjust weights, prioritizing semantic features relevant to the current prediction. Theoretically, we show that CT-SSF surpasses previous methods defined in the output space. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate that CT-SSF significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) conformal prediction techniques in terms of prediction efficiency while maintaining a valid coverage guarantee.
Time Series
Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over $5\times$ training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.
Time Series
Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential of language models (LMs) for time series analysis, dedicated parameters for various downstream forecasting tasks need training, which hinders the common knowledge sharing across domains.Moreover, data owners may hesitate to share the access to local data due to privacy concerns and copyright protection, which makes it impossible to simply construct a FM on cross-domain training instances.To address these issues, we propose Time-FFM, a Federated Foundation Model for Time series forecasting by leveraging pretrained LMs.Specifically, we begin by transforming time series into the modality of text tokens.To bootstrap LMs for time series reasoning, we propose a prompt adaption module to determine domain-customized prompts dynamically instead of artificially.Given the data heterogeneity across domains, we design a personalized federated training strategy by learning global encoders and local prediction heads. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that Time-FFM outperforms state-of-the-arts and promises effective few-shot and zero-shot forecaster.The code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/NeurIPS24-Time-FFM/tree/main.
Time Series
Accurately modeling the correlation structure of errors is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic time series forecasting. While recent deep learning models for multivariate time series have developed efficient parameterizations for time-varying contemporaneous covariance, but they often assume temporal independence of errors for simplicity. However, real-world data often exhibit significant error autocorrelation and cross-lag correlation due to factors such as missing covariates. In this paper, we introduce a plug-and-play method that learns the covariance structure of errors over multiple steps for autoregressive models with Gaussian-distributed errors. To ensure scalable inference and computational efficiency, we model the contemporaneous covariance using a low-rank-plus-diagonal parameterization and capture cross-covariance through a group of independent latent temporal processes. The learned covariance matrix is then used to calibrate predictions based on observed residuals. We evaluate our method on probabilistic models built on RNNs and Transformer architectures, and the results confirm the effectiveness of our approach in improving predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification without significantly increasing the parameter size.
Time Series
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently achieved remarkable advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) due to their powerful ability of sequence dependence modeling. To date, existing DNN-based TSF methods still suffer from unreliable predictions for real-world data due to its non-stationarity characteristics, i.e., data distribution varies quickly over time. To mitigate this issue, several normalization methods (e.g., SAN) have recently been specifically designed by normalization in a fixed period/window in the time domain. However, these methods still struggle to capture distribution variations, due to the complex time patterns of time series in the time domain. Based on the fact that wavelet transform can decompose time series into a linear combination of different frequencies, which exhibits distribution variations with time-varying periods, we propose a novel Dual-domain Dynamic Normalization (DDN) to dynamically capture distribution variations in both time and frequency domains. Specifically, our DDN tries to eliminate the non-stationarity of time series via both frequency and time domain normalization in a sliding window way. Besides, our DDN can serve as a plug-in-play module, and thus can be easily incorporated into other forecasting models. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets under different forecasting models demonstrate the superiority of our DDN over other normalization methods. Code will be made available following the review process.
Neuroscience, Cognitive Science
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely used models for investigating biological visual representations. However, existing DNNs are mostly designed to analyze neural responses to static images, relying on feedforward structures and lacking physiological neuronal mechanisms. There is limited insight into how the visual cortex represents natural movie stimuli that contain context-rich information. To address these problems, this work proposes the long-range feedback spiking network (LoRaFB-SNet), which mimics top-down connections between cortical regions and incorporates spike information processing mechanisms inherent to biological neurons. Taking into account the temporal dependence of representations under movie stimuli, we present Time-Series Representational Similarity Analysis (TSRSA) to measure the similarity between model representations and visual cortical representations of mice. LoRaFB-SNet exhibits the highest level of representational similarity, outperforming other well-known and leading alternatives across various experimental paradigms, especially when representing long movie stimuli. We further conduct experiments to quantify how temporal structures (dynamic information) and static textures (static information) of the movie stimuli influence representational similarity, suggesting that our model benefits from long-range feedback to encode context-dependent representations just like the brain. Altogether, LoRaFB-SNet is highly competent in capturing both dynamic and static representations of the mouse visual cortex and contributes to the understanding of movie processing mechanisms of the visual system. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Grasshlw/SNN-Neural-Similarity-Movie.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning
Unsupervised domain adaptation excels in transferring knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain, playing a critical role in time series applications. Existing time series domain adaptation methods either ignore frequency features or treat temporal and frequency features equally, which makes it challenging to fully exploit the advantages of both types of features. In this paper, we delve into transferability and discriminability, two crucial properties in transferable representation learning. It's insightful to note that frequency features are more discriminative within a specific domain, while temporal features show better transferability across domains. Based on the findings, we propose **A**dversarial **CO**-learning **N**etworks (**ACON**), to enhance transferable representation learning through a collaborative learning manner in three aspects: (1) Considering the multi-periodicity in time series, multi-period frequency feature learning is proposed to enhance the discriminability of frequency features; (2) Temporal-frequency domain mutual learning is proposed to enhance the discriminability of temporal features in the source domain and improve the transferability of frequency features in the target domain; (3) Domain adversarial learning is conducted in the correlation subspaces of temporal-frequency features instead of original feature spaces to further enhance the transferability of both features. Extensive experiments conducted on a wide range of time series datasets and five common applications demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of ACON. Code is available at <https://github.com/mingyangliu1024/ACON>.
Time Series
Time Series Classification (TSC) encompasses two settings: classifying entire sequences or classifying segmented subsequences. The raw time series for segmented TSC usually contain Multiple classes with Varying Duration of each class (MVD). Therefore, the characteristics of MVD pose unique challenges for segmented TSC, yet have been largely overlooked by existing works. Specifically, there exists a natural temporal dependency between consecutive instances (segments) to be classified within MVD. However, mainstream TSC models rely on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), focusing on independently modeling each segment. Additionally, annotators with varying expertise may provide inconsistent boundary labels, leading to unstable performance of noise-free TSC models. To address these challenges, we first formally demonstrate that valuable contextual information enhances the discriminative power of classification instances. Leveraging the contextual priors of MVD at both the data and label levels, we propose a novel consistency learning framework Con4m, which effectively utilizes contextual information more conducive to discriminating consecutive segments in segmented TSC tasks, while harmonizing inconsistent boundary labels for training. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets validate the effectiveness of Con4m in handling segmented TSC tasks on MVD. The source code is available at https://github.com/MrNobodyCali/Con4m.
Time Series
Spatiotemporal learning has become a pivotal technique to enable urban intelligence. Traditional spatiotemporal models mostly focus on a specific task by assuming a same distribution between training and testing sets. However, given that urban systems are usually dynamic, multi-sourced with imbalanced data distributions, current specific task-specific models fail to generalize to new urban conditions and adapt to new domains without explicitly modeling interdependencies across various dimensions and types of urban data. To this end, we argue that there is an essential to propose a Continuous Multi-task Spatio-Temporal learning framework (CMuST) to empower collective urban intelligence, which reforms the urban spatiotemporal learning from single-domain to cooperatively multi-dimensional and multi-task learning. Specifically, CMuST proposes a new multi-dimensional spatiotemporal interaction network (MSTI) to allow cross-interactions between context and main observations as well as self-interactions within spatial and temporal aspects to be exposed, which is also the core for capturing task-level commonality and personalization. To ensure continuous task learning, a novel Rolling Adaptation training scheme (RoAda) is devised, which not only preserves task uniqueness by constructing data summarization-driven task prompts, but also harnesses correlated patterns among tasks by iterative model behavior modeling. We further establish a benchmark of three cities for multi-task spatiotemporal learning, and empirically demonstrate the superiority of CMuST via extensive evaluations on these datasets. The impressive improvements on both few-shot streaming data and new domain tasks against existing SOAT methods are achieved. Code is available at https://github.com/DILab-USTCSZ/CMuST.
Time Series
Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) represents a critical frontier in time series analysis, characterized by extensive input sequences, as opposed to the shorter spans typical of traditional approaches. While longer sequences inherently offer richer information for enhanced predictive precision, prevailing studies often respond by escalating model complexity. These intricate models can inflate into millions of parameters, resulting in prohibitive parameter scales. Our study demonstrates, through both theoretical and empirical evidence, that decomposition is key to containing excessive model inflation while achieving uniformly superior and robust results across various datasets. Remarkably, by tailoring decomposition to the intrinsic dynamics of time series data, our proposed model outperforms existing benchmarks, using over 99\% fewer parameters than the majority of competing methods. Through this work, we aim to unleash the power of a restricted set of parameters by capitalizing on domain characteristics—a timely reminder that in the realm of LTSF, bigger is not invariably better. The code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SSCNN-321D/}.