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Deep Learning · Theory

Jeongjin Park, Nicole Yang, Nisha Chandramoorthy

Conventional notions of generalization often fail to describe the ability of learned models to capture meaningful information from dynamical data. A neural network that learns complex dynamics with a small test error may still fail to reproduce its \emph{physical} behavior, including associated statistical moments and Lyapunov exponents. To address this gap, we propose an ergodic theoretic approach to generalization of complex dynamical models learned from time series data. Our main contribution is to define and analyze generalization of a broad suite of neural representations of classes of ergodic systems, including chaotic systems, in a way that captures emulating underlying invariant, physical measures. Our results provide theoretical justification for why regression methods for generators of dynamical systems (Neural ODEs) fail to generalize, and why their statistical accuracy improves upon adding Jacobian information during training. We verify our results on a number of ergodic chaotic systems and neural network parameterizations, including MLPs, ResNets, Fourier Neural layers, and RNNs.

Time Series

Shivam Grover, Amin Jalali, Ali Etemad

Existing approaches for learning representations of time-series keep the temporal arrangement of the time-steps intact with the presumption that the original order is the most optimal for learning. However, non-adjacent sections of real-world time-series may have strong dependencies. Accordingly, we raise the question: Is there an alternative arrangement for time-series which could enable more effective representation learning? To address this, we propose a simple plug-and-play neural network layer called Segment, Shuffle, and Stitch (S3) designed to improve representation learning in time-series models. S3 works by creating non-overlapping segments from the original sequence and shuffling them in a learned manner that is optimal for the task at hand. It then re-attaches the shuffled segments back together and performs a learned weighted sum with the original input to capture both the newly shuffled sequence along with the original sequence. S3 is modular and can be stacked to achieve different levels of granularity, and can be added to many forms of neural architectures including CNNs or Transformers with negligible computation overhead. Through extensive experiments on several datasets and state-of-the-art baselines, we show that incorporating S3 results in significant improvements for the tasks of time-series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, improving performance on certain datasets by up to 68\%. We also show that S3 makes the learning more stable with a smoother training loss curve and loss landscape compared to the original baseline. The code is available at https://github.com/shivam-grover/S3-TimeSeries.

Deep Learning · Theory

Daniel Kunin, Allan Raventós, Clémentine Dominé, Feng Chen, David Klindt, Andrew Saxe, Surya Ganguli

While the impressive performance of modern neural networks is often attributed to their capacity to efficiently extract task-relevant features from data, the mechanisms underlying this *rich feature learning regime* remain elusive, with much of our theoretical understanding stemming from the opposing *lazy regime*. In this work, we derive exact solutions to a minimal model that transitions between lazy and rich learning, precisely elucidating how unbalanced *layer-specific* initialization variances and learning rates determine the degree of feature learning. Our analysis reveals that they conspire to influence the learning regime through a set of conserved quantities that constrain and modify the geometry of learning trajectories in parameter and function space. We extend our analysis to more complex linear models with multiple neurons, outputs, and layers and to shallow nonlinear networks with piecewise linear activation functions. In linear networks, rapid feature learning only occurs from balanced initializations, where all layers learn at similar speeds. While in nonlinear networks, unbalanced initializations that promote faster learning in earlier layers can accelerate rich learning. Through a series of experiments, we provide evidence that this unbalanced rich regime drives feature learning in deep finite-width networks, promotes interpretability of early layers in CNNs, reduces the sample complexity of learning hierarchical data, and decreases the time to grokking in modular arithmetic. Our theory motivates further exploration of unbalanced initializations to enhance efficient feature learning.

Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Yongxu Zhang, Shreya Saxena

Neural population activity often exhibits distinct dynamical features across time, which may correspond to distinct internal processes or behavior. Linear methods and variations thereof, such as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS), are often employed to identify discrete states with evolving neural dynamics. However, these techniques may not be able to capture the underlying nonlinear dynamics associated with neural propagation. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are commonly used to model neural dynamics thanks to their nonlinear characteristics. In our work, we develop Switching Recurrent Neural Networks (SRNN), RNNs with weights that switch across time, to reconstruct switching dynamics of neural time-series data. We apply these models to simulated data as well as cortical neural activity across mice and monkeys, which allows us to automatically detect discrete states that lead to the identification of varying neural dynamics. In a monkey reaching dataset with electrophysiology recordings, a mouse self-initiated lever pull dataset with widefield calcium recordings, and a mouse self-initiated decision making dataset with widefield calcium recording, SRNNs are able to automatically identify discrete states with distinct nonlinear neural dynamics. The inferred switches are aligned with the behavior, and the reconstructions show that the recovered neural dynamics are distinct across different stages of the behavior. We show that the neural dynamics have behaviorally-relevant switches across time and we are able to use SRNNs to successfully capture these switches and the corresponding dynamical features.

Deep Learning · Representation Learning

David McSharry, Christos Kaplanis, Fernando Rosas, Pedro A.M Mediano

Cognitive processes usually take place at a macroscopic scale in systems characterised by emergent properties, which make the whole ‘more than the sum of its parts.’ While recent proposals have provided quantitative, information-theoretic metrics to detect emergence in time series data, it is often highly non-trivial to identify the relevant macroscopic variables a priori. In this paper we leverage recent advances in representation learning and differentiable information estimators to put forward a data-driven method to find emergent variables. The proposed method successfully detects emergent variables and recovers the ground-truth emergence values in a synthetic dataset. Furthermore, we show the method can be extended to learn multiple independent features, extracting a diverse set of emergent quantities. We finally show that a modified method scales to real experimental data from primate brain activity, paving the ground for future analyses uncovering the emergent structure of cognitive representations in biological and artificial intelligence systems.

Time Series

Yuxin Jia, Youfang Lin, Jing Yu, Shuo Wang, Tianhao Liu, Huaiyu Wan

Due to the recurrent structure of RNN, the long information propagation path poses limitations in capturing long-term dependencies, gradient explosion/vanishing issues, and inefficient sequential execution. Based on this, we propose a novel paradigm called Parallel Gated Network (PGN) as the new successor to RNN. PGN directly captures information from previous time steps through the designed Historical Information Extraction (HIE) layer and leverages gated mechanisms to select and fuse it with the current time step information. This reduces the information propagation path to $\mathcal{O}(1)$, effectively addressing the limitations of RNN. To enhance PGN's performance in long-range time series forecasting tasks, we propose a novel temporal modeling framework called Temporal PGN (TPGN). TPGN incorporates two branches to comprehensively capture the semantic information of time series. One branch utilizes PGN to capture long-term periodic patterns while preserving their local characteristics. The other branch employs patches to capture short-term information and aggregate the global representation of the series. TPGN achieves a theoretical complexity of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{L})$, ensuring efficiency in its operations. Experimental results on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and high efficiency of TPGN, further confirming the effectiveness of PGN as the new successor to RNN in long-range time series forecasting. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Water2sea/TPGN.

Probabilistic Methods

Jiajie Tao, Hao Ni, Chong Liu

Since the weak convergence for stochastic processes does not account for the growth of information over time which is represented by the underlying filtration, a slightly erroneous stochastic model in weak topology may cause huge loss in multi-periods decision making problems. To address such discontinuities, Aldous introduced the extended weak convergence, which can fully characterise all essential properties, including the filtration, of stochastic processes; however, it was considered to be hard to find efficient numerical implementations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric called High Rank PCF Distance (HRPCFD) for extended weak convergence based on the high rank path development method from rough path theory, which also defines the characteristic function for measure-valued processes. We then show that such HRPCFD admits many favourable analytic properties which allows us to design an efficient algorithm for training HRPCFD from data and construct the HRPCF-GAN by using HRPCFD as the discriminator for conditional time series generation. Our numerical experiments on both hypothesis testing and generative modelling validate the out-performance of our approach compared with several state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its potential in broad applications of synthetic time series generation and in addressing classic financial and economic challenges, such as optimal stopping or utility maximisation problems. Code is available at https://github.com/DeepIntoStreams/High-Rank-PCF-GAN.git.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Yiyang Zhao, Yunzhuo Liu, Bo Jiang, Tian Guo

This work presents a novel approach to neural architecture search (NAS) that aims to increase carbon efficiency for the model design process. The proposed framework CE-NAS addresses the key challenge of high carbon cost associated with NAS by exploring the carbon emission variations of energy and energy differences of different NAS algorithms. At the high level, CE-NAS leverages a reinforcement-learning agent to dynamically adjust GPU resources based on carbon intensity, predicted by a time-series transformer, to balance energy-efficient sampling and energy-intensive evaluation tasks. Furthermore, CE-NAS leverages a recently proposed multi-objective optimizer to effectively reduce the NAS search space. We demonstrate the efficacy of CE-NAS in lowering carbon emissions while achieving SOTA results for both NAS datasets and open-domain NAS tasks. For example, on the HW-NasBench dataset, CE-NAS reduces carbon emissions by up to 7.22X while maintaining a search efficiency comparable to vanilla NAS. For open-domain NAS tasks, CE-NAS achieves SOTA results with 97.35% top-1 accuracy on CIFAR-10 with only 1.68M parameters and a carbon consumption of 38.53 lbs of CO2. On ImageNet, our searched model achieves 80.6% top-1 accuracy with a 0.78 ms TensorRT latency using FP16 on NVIDIA V100, consuming only 909.86 lbs of CO2, making it comparable to other one-shot-based NAS baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/cake-lab/CE-NAS.

Applications

Wenfang Yao, Chen Liu, Kejing Yin, William Cheung, Jing Qin

Integrating multi-modal clinical data, such as electronic health records (EHR) and chest X-ray images (CXR), is particularly beneficial for clinical prediction tasks. However, in a temporal setting, multi-modal data are often inherently asynchronous. EHR can be continuously collected but CXR is generally taken with a much longer interval due to its high cost and radiation dose. When clinical prediction is needed, the last available CXR image might have been outdated, leading to suboptimal predictions. To address this challenge, we propose DDL-CXR, a method that dynamically generates an up-to-date latent representation of the individualized CXR images. Our approach leverages latent diffusion models for patient-specific generation strategically conditioned on a previous CXR image and EHR time series, providing information regarding anatomical structures and disease progressions, respectively. In this way, the interaction across modalities could be better captured by the latent CXR generation process, ultimately improving the prediction performance. Experiments using MIMIC datasets show that the proposed model could effectively address asynchronicity in multimodal fusion and consistently outperform existing methods.

Time Series

QING XU, Min Wu, Xiaoli Li, Kezhi Mao, Zhenghua Chen

Unsupervised domain adaptation methods have demonstrated superior capabilities in handling the domain shift issue which widely exists in various time series tasks. However, their prominent adaptation performances heavily rely on complex model architectures, posing an unprecedented challenge in deploying them on resource-limited devices for real-time monitoring. Existing approaches, which integrates knowledge distillation into domain adaptation frameworks to simultaneously address domain shift and model complexity, often neglect network capacity gap between teacher and student and just coarsely align their outputs over all source and target samples, resulting in poor distillation efficiency. Thus, in this paper, we propose an innovative framework named Reinforced Cross-Domain Knowledge Distillation (RCD-KD) which can effectively adapt to student's network capability via dynamically selecting suitable target domain samples for knowledge transferring. Particularly, a reinforcement learning-based module with a novel reward function is proposed to learn optimal target sample selection policy based on student's capacity. Meanwhile, a domain discriminator is designed to transfer the domain invariant knowledge. Empirical experimental results and analyses on four public time series datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method over other state-of-the-art benchmarks.

Time Series

Sharmita Dey, Sarath Ravindran Nair

Mobility impairment caused by limb loss, aging, stroke, and other movement deficiencies is a significant challenge faced by millions of individuals worldwide. Advanced assistive technologies, such as prostheses and orthoses, have the potential to greatly improve the quality of life for such individuals. A critical component in the design of these technologies is the accurate forecasting of reference joint motion for impaired limbs, which is hindered by the scarcity of joint locomotion data available for these patients. To address this, we propose ReMAP, a novel model repurposing strategy that leverages deep learning's reprogramming property, incorporating network inversion principles and retrieval-augmented mapping. Our approach adapts models originally designed for able-bodied individuals to forecast joint motion in limb-impaired patients without altering model parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of ReMAP through extensive empirical studies on data from below-knee amputated patients, showcasing significant improvements over traditional transfer learning and fine-tuning methods. These findings have significant implications for advancing assistive technology and mobility for patients with amputations, stroke, or aging.

Time Series

Jingwei Liu, Ling Yang, Hongyan Li, Shenda Hong

While time series diffusion models have received considerable focus from many recent works, the performance of existing models remains highly unstable. Factors limiting time series diffusion models include insufficient time series datasets and the absence of guidance. To address these limitations, we propose a Retrieval-Augmented Time series Diffusion model (RATD). The framework of RATD consists of two parts: an embedding-based retrieval process and a reference-guided diffusion model. In the first part, RATD retrieves the time series that are most relevant to historical time series from the database as references. The references are utilized to guide the denoising process in the second part. Our approach allows leveraging meaningful samples within the database to aid in sampling, thus maximizing the utilization of datasets. Meanwhile, this reference-guided mechanism also compensates for the deficiencies of existing time series diffusion models in terms of guidance. Experiments and visualizations on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, particularly in complicated prediction tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/stanliu96/RATD

Applications

Xi (Nicole) Zhang, Yuan Pu, Yuki Kawamura, Andrew Loza, Yoshua Bengio, Dennis Shung, Alexander Tong

Modeling stochastic and irregularly sampled time series is a challenging problem found in a wide range of applications, especially in medicine. Neural stochastic differential equations (Neural SDEs) are an attractive modeling technique for this problem, which parameterize the drift and diffusion terms of an SDE with neural networks. However, current algorithms for training Neural SDEs require backpropagation through the SDE dynamics, greatly limiting their scalability and stability. To address this, we propose **Trajectory Flow Matching** (TFM), which trains a Neural SDE in a *simulation-free* manner, bypassing backpropagation through the dynamics. TFM leverages the flow matching technique from generative modeling to model time series. In this work we first establish necessary conditions for TFM to learn time series data. Next, we present a reparameterization trick which improves training stability. Finally, we adapt TFM to the clinical time series setting, demonstrating improved performance on four clinical time series datasets both in terms of absolute performance and uncertainty prediction, a crucial parameter in this setting.

Time Series

Chengtao Jian, Kai Yang, Yang Jiao

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization in machine learning is a burgeoning area of study. Its primary goal is to enhance the adaptability and resilience of machine learning models when faced with new, unseen, and potentially adversarial data that significantly diverges from their original training datasets. In this paper, we investigate time series OOD generalization via pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs). We first propose a novel \textbf{T}ri-level learning framework for \textbf{T}ime \textbf{S}eries \textbf{O}OD generalization, termed TTSO, which considers both sample-level and group-level uncertainties. This formula offers a fresh theoretic perspective for formulating and analyzing OOD generalization problem. In addition, we provide a theoretical analysis to justify this method is well motivated. We then develop a stratified localization algorithm tailored for this tri-level optimization problem, theoretically demonstrating the guaranteed convergence of the proposed algorithm. Our analysis also reveals that the iteration complexity to obtain an $\epsilon$-stationary point is bounded by O($\frac{1}{\epsilon^{2}}$). Extensive experiments on real-world datasets have been conducted to elucidate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Zitong Lan, Chenhao Zheng, Zhiwei Zheng, Mingmin Zhao

Realistic audio synthesis that captures accurate acoustic phenomena is essential for creating immersive experiences in virtual and augmented reality. Synthesizing the sound received at any position relies on the estimation of impulse response (IR), which characterizes how sound propagates in one scene along different paths before arriving at the listener position. In this paper, we present Acoustic Volume Rendering (AVR), a novel approach that adapts volume rendering techniques to model acoustic impulse responses. While volume rendering has been successful in modeling radiance fields for images and neural scene representations, IRs present unique challenges as time-series signals. To address these challenges, we introduce frequency-domain volume rendering and use spherical integration to fit the IR measurements. Our method constructs an impulse response field that inherently encodes wave propagation principles and achieves state of-the-art performance in synthesizing impulse responses for novel poses. Experiments show that AVR surpasses current leading methods by a substantial margin. Additionally, we develop an acoustic simulation platform, AcoustiX, which provides more accurate and realistic IR simulations than existing simulators. Code for AVR and AcoustiX are available at https://zitonglan.github.io/avr.

Time Series

Yooju Shin, Jaehyun Park, Susik Yoon, Hwanjun Song, Byung Suk Lee, Jae-Gil Lee

*Boundaries* are the timestamps at which a class in a time series changes. Recently, representation-based boundary detection has gained popularity, but its emphasis on consecutive distance difference backfires, especially when the changes are gradual. In this paper, we propose a boundary detection method, **RECURVE**, based on a novel change metric, the ***curvature*** of a representation trajectory, to accommodate both gradual and abrupt changes. Here, a sequence of representations in the representation space is interpreted as a trajectory, and a curvature at each timestamp can be computed. Using the theory of random walk, we formally show that the mean curvature is lower near boundaries than at other points. Extensive experiments using diverse real-world time-series datasets confirm the superiority of RECURVE over state-of-the-art methods.

Time Series

XINYU YANG, Yu Sun, Yuan xiaojie, Xinyang Chen

Missing data in multivariate time series are common issues that can affect the analysis and downstream applications.Although multivariate time series data generally consist of the trend, seasonal and residual terms, existing works mainly focus on optimizing the modeling for the first two items. However, we find that the residual term is more crucial for getting accurate fillings, since it is more related to the diverse changes of data and the biggest component of imputation errors.Therefore, in this study, we introduce frequency-domain information and design Frequency-aware Generative Models for Multivariate Time Series Imputation (FGTI). Specifically, FGTI employs a high-frequency filter to boost the residual term imputation, supplemented by a dominant-frequency filter for the trend and seasonal imputation. Cross-domain representation learning module then fuses frequency-domain insights with deep representations.Experiments over various datasets with real-world missing values show that FGTI achieves superiority in both data imputation and downstream applications.

Reinforcement Learning · Planning

Benjamin Eysenbach, Vivek Myers, Ruslan Salakhutdinov, Sergey Levine

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like ``what will happen in the future?'' and ``how did we get here?'' These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

Ziyang Xiao, Dongxiang Zhang, Xiongwei Han, Xiaojin Fu, Wing Yin YU, Tao Zhong, Sai Wu, Yuan Wang, Jianwei Yin, Gang Chen

Verbal and visual-spatial information processing are two critical subsystems that activate different brain regions and often collaborate together for cognitive reasoning. Despite the rapid advancement of LLM-based reasoning, the mainstream frameworks, such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and its variants, primarily focus on the verbal dimension, resulting in limitations in tackling reasoning problems with visual and spatial clues. To bridge the gap, we propose a novel dual-modality reasoning framework called Vision-Augmented Prompting (VAP). Upon receiving a textual problem description, VAP automatically synthesizes an image from the visual and spatial clues by utilizing external drawing tools. Subsequently, VAP formulates a chain of thought in both modalities and iteratively refines the synthesized image. Finally, a conclusive reasoning scheme based on self-alignment is proposed for final result generation. Extensive experiments are conducted across four versatile tasks, including solving geometry problems, Sudoku, time series prediction, and travelling salesman problem. The results validated the superiority of VAP over existing LLMs-based reasoning frameworks.

Theory · Everything Else

Pascal Bergsträßer, Chris Köcher, Anthony Lin, Georg Zetzsche

Formal language theory has recently been successfully employed to unravel the power of transformer encoders. This setting is primarily applicable in Natural Language Processing (NLP), as a token embedding function (where a bounded number of tokens is admitted) is first applied before feeding the input to the transformer. On certain kinds of data (e.g. time series), we want our transformers to be able to handle arbitrary input sequences of numbers (or tuples thereof) without a priori limiting the values of these numbers. In this paper, we initiate the study of the expressive power of transformer encoders on sequences of data (i.e. tuples of numbers). Our results indicate an increase in expressive power of hard attention transformers over data sequences, in stark contrast to the case of strings. In particular, we prove that Unique Hard Attention Transformers (UHAT) over inputs as data sequences no longer lie within the circuit complexity class AC0 (even without positional encodings), unlike the case of string inputs, but are still within the complexity class TC0 (even with positional encodings). Over strings, UHAT without positional encodings capture only regular languages. In contrast, we show that over data sequences UHAT can capture non-regular properties. Finally, we show that UHAT capture languages definable in an extension of linear temporal logic with unary numeric predicates and arithmetics.