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Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Sammy Sharief, Justine Zeghal, Gabriel Missael Barco, Pablo Lemos, Yashar Hezaveh, Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

We present Mira, a method for estimating the expected probability that samples from a candidate conditional distribution match the true, unknown conditional distribution, for which only data-label pairs are available. We derive theoretical bounds obtained when the candidate distribution matches the true one and when the conditional distributions are independent. This framework thus enables model comparison by quantifying the alignment between the conditional distribution of a candidate model and the data-label pairs of the true model. Consequently, Mira enables Bayesian model comparison through direct posterior validation, bypassing the challenging evidence computation. We demonstrate its effectiveness across several toy problems and Bayesian inference tasks.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Xincheng Shi, Changxiao Ma, Yuzhuo Ma, Yongfei Zhang, Rongye Shi

Person re-identification (ReID) models are sensitive to long-tail nuisances (e.g., rare viewpoints, occlusions, complex backgrounds), yet current generative augmentation is largely open-loop: prompts/conditions are sampled heuristically without verifying whether the synthesized samples improve ReID discriminability. We introduce ReasonAug, a closed-loop framework that learns an image-conditioned instruction policy for a frozen generator, turning augmentation into a sequential decision problem over instruction tokens. A Semantic Reasoning Agent (SRA) performs hierarchical planning from global semantics to identity-critical local cues, producing structured edit instructions whose utility is verified by downstream ReID feedback. To make closed-loop optimization reliable, we propose Metric-Aligned Gated Reward (MAGR), which converts metric-learning objectives into a dense reward while gating task shaping by identity preservation to prevent reward hacking, and Structure-Aware Entropy (SAE), which allocates exploration per token to lock identity-critical cues while diversifying nuisance factors. Experiments on Market-1501 and MSMT17 demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, confirming that closing the augmentation loop and learning what to generate yield more discriminative training data than open-loop alternatives.

Reinforcement Learning · Policy Search

Doyeon Lee, Eunyi Lyou, Hyunsoo Cho, Soo Kyung Kim, Joonseok Lee, Jaemoo Choi

GRPO-style reinforcement learning (RL)-based LLM fine-tuning algorithms have recently gained popularity. Relying on heuristic trust-region approximations, however, they can lead to brittle optimization behavior, as global importance-ratio clipping and group-wise normalization fail to regulate samples whose importance ratios fall outside the clipping range. We propose Query-Adaptive Trust-Region policy Optimization (QUATRO), which directly enforces trust-region constraints through a principled optimization. This yields a clear and interpretable objective that enables explicit control over policy updates and stable, entropy-controlled optimization, with a stabilizer terms arising intrinsically from the exact trust-region formulation. Empirically verified on diverse mathematical reasoning benchmarks, QUATRO shows stable training under increased policy staleness and aggressive learning rates, maintaining well-controlled entropy throughout training.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Zhiming Zhang, Rong Yin, Xiaoshuai Hao, Hansong Zhang, Hao Peng, Yong Liu, Can Ma, Dan Meng

Merging multiple low-rank adapters (LoRA) provides a practical route to scaling multi-task learning and deployment more efficiently than full-model weight merging, while avoiding reliance on task-specific training data. However, most existing approaches either treat LoRA updates as dense weight deltas or depend on expensive subspace factorizations, making the merge step a primary latency bottleneck. To address this issue, this paper establishes a theoretically positive relationship between merging quality and the effective rank of the matrices being merged. Motivated by this insight, we propose **CircuMerge**, a sketch-based framework for low-rank model merging built on shared circulant transforms. Especially, this approach treats each adapter as a pair of low-rank matrices and applies a shared circulant transform to align all tasks in a common coordinate system. This alignment enables more efficient sampling, allowing us to generate compact sketches that effectively summarize the interactions between tasks. These compact sketches enable applying the merging rules directly to them and reconstructing a standard low-rank adapter, preserving the essential information while significantly reducing computational overhead. Across a broad multi-task LoRA benchmarks covering both vision and language settings, extensive empirical results demonstrate that CircuMerge reduces the overall merging time by at least 44\% compared to the state-of-the-art approaches, with accuracy matching or exceeding the optimal level.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Lizhuo Luo, Shenggui Li, Yonggang Wen, Tianwei Zhang

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative for text generation, distinguished by their native support for parallel decoding. In practice, block inference is crucial for avoiding order misalignment in global bidirectional decoding and improving output quality. However, the widely-used fixed, predefined block (naive) schedule is agnostic to semantic difficulty, making it a suboptimal strategy for both quality and efficiency: it can force premature commitments to uncertain positions while delaying easy positions near block boundaries. In this work, we analyze the limitations of naive block scheduling and disclose the importance of dynamically adapting the schedule to semantic difficulty for reliable and efficient inference. Motivated by this, we propose **Dynamic Sliding Block (DSB)**, a training-free block scheduling method that uses a sliding block with a dynamic size to overcome the rigidity of the naive block. To further improve efficiency, we introduce **DSB Cache**, a training-free KV-cache mechanism tailored to DSB. Extensive experiments across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrate that DSB, together with DSB Cache, consistently improves both generation quality and inference efficiency for dLLMs.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Luca Moschella, Laura Manduchi, Ozan Sener

The growing size of Large Language Models (LLMs) makes efficient inference challenging, primarily due to the memory demands of the autoregressive Key-Value (KV) cache. Existing eviction or compression methods reduce cost but rely on heuristics, such as recency or past attention scores, which serve only as indirect proxies for a token’s future utility and introduce computational overhead. We reframe KV cache eviction as a reinforcement learning (RL) problem: learning to rank tokens by their predicted usefulness for future decoding. To this end, we introduce KV Policy (KVP), a framework of lightweight per-head RL agents trained on pre-computed generation traces using only key and value vectors. Each agent learns a specialized eviction policy guided by a holistic reward, derived from future utility, that evaluates the quality of the ranking across all cache budgets, requiring no modifications to the underlying LLM or additional inference. Evaluated across two different model families on the long-context benchmark RULER and the multi-turn dialogue benchmark OASST2-4k, KVP significantly outperforms baselines. Furthermore, zero-shot tests on standard downstream tasks (e.g., LongBench, BOOLQ, ARC) indicate that KVP generalizes well beyond its training distribution and to longer sequence lengths. These results demonstrate that learning to predict future token utility is a powerful and scalable paradigm for adaptive KV cache management.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Hans Gundlach, Hrvoje Kukina, Jayson Lynch, Neil Thompson

Quantum computing technology is advancing rapidly. Yet, even accounting for these trends, a quantum leap would be needed for quantum computers to meaningfully impact deep learning over the coming decade or two. We arrive at this conclusion based on a first-of-its-kind survey of quantum algorithms and how they match potential deep learning applications. This survey reveals three important areas where quantum computing could potentially accelerate deep learning, each of which faces a challenging roadblock to realizing its potential. First, quantum algorithms for matrix multiplication and other algorithms central to deep learning offer small theoretical improvements in the number of operations needed, but this advantage is overwhelmed on practical problem sizes by how slowly quantum computers do each operation. Second, some promising quantum algorithms depend on practical Quantum Random Access Memory (QRAM), which is underdeveloped. Finally, there are quantum algorithms that offer large theoretical advantages, but which are only applicable to special cases, limiting their practical benefits. In each of these areas, we support our arguments using quantitative forecasts of quantum advantage that build on the work by Choi et al. (2023) as well as new research on limitations and quantum hardware trends. Our analysis outlines the current scope of quantum deep learning and points to research directions that could lead to greater practical advances in the field.

Masahiro Kato

We propose \emph{ScoreMatchingRiesz}, a family of Riesz representer estimators based on score matching. The Riesz representer is a key nuisance component in debiased machine learning, enabling $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically efficient estimation of causal and structural targets via Neyman-orthogonal scores. We formulate Riesz representer estimation as a score estimation problem. This perspective stabilizes representer estimation by allowing us to leverage denoising score matching and telescoping density ratio estimation. We also introduce the policy path, a parameter that captures how policy effects evolve under continuous treatments. We show that the policy path can be estimated via score matching by smoothly connecting average marginal effect (AME) and average policy effect (APE) estimation, which improves the interpretability of policy effects.

Applications · Computer Vision

Jiaxu Leng, Jiankang Zheng, Mengjingcheng Mo, Zhanjie Wu, Haosheng Chen, Ji Gan, Xinbo Gao

Video anomaly detection (VAD) with multimodal large language models has shown strong potential, yet most existing methods still depend on large-scale annotations or expert-designed priors, limiting their ability to acquire anomaly knowledge with as little human intervention as possible. To address this, we propose Linguistic Relative Policy Optimization (LRPO), which distills group-relative semantic advantages from multiple reasoning trajectories into a linguistically expressed anomaly experience prior, and adapts the model by injecting this prior into the context to steer its output distribution without any parameter updates. LRPO builds two complementary experience representations: general experience captures transferable anomaly preferences across scenarios, while scenario experience models context-dependent anomaly rules for targeted refinement. To further improve the learned experience, we introduce an anomaly alignment reward that guides trajectory optimization to match human risk preferences and reinforce temporally grounded reasoning. Extensive experiments on XD-Violence, UCF-Crime, and UBNormal demonstrate that LRPO significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods under tuning-free settings.

Social Aspects · Alignment

Nora Petrova, John Burden

Evaluating alignment in language models requires testing how they behave under realistic pressure, not just what they claim they would do. While alignment failures increasingly cause real-world harm, comprehensive evaluation frameworks with realistic multi-turn scenarios remain lacking. We introduce an alignment benchmark spanning 904 scenarios across six categories---Honesty, Safety, Non-Manipulation, Robustness, Corrigibility, and Scheming---validated as realistic by human raters. Our scenarios place models under conflicting instructions, simulated tool access, and multi-turn escalation to reveal behavioral tendencies that single-turn evaluations miss. Evaluating 24 frontier models using LLM judges validated against human annotations, we find that even top-performing models exhibit gaps in specific categories, while the majority of models show consistent weaknesses across the board. Factor analysis reveals that alignment behaves as a unified construct (analogous to the g-factor in cognitive research) with models scoring high on one category tending to score high on others. We publicly release the benchmark and an interactive leaderboard to support ongoing evaluation, with plans to expand scenarios in areas where we observe persistent weaknesses and to add new models as they are released.

Theory · Learning Theory

Andrew Ilyas, Joonhyuk Ko, Jingwu Tang, Steven Wu, Jiahao Zhang

Conformal prediction converts any black-box predictor into one with finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees, outputting prediction sets $T(x)$ that contain the true label with probability at least $1-\alpha$. To construct these prediction sets, conformal prediction relies on a randomly sampled ``calibration set'' of labeled examples. In many applications, however, this labeled calibration set is costly to collect, creating a tradeoff between upfront labeling cost and downstream utility of the conformal predictor. In this work, we study *conformal prediction with costly label queries*, where unlabeled examples arrive i.i.d. and labels can be queried one at a time. After $m$ queries, we form a conformal predictor; the upfront cost of this predictor is the calibration set size $m$, and its efficiency is the expected prediction set size $\mathbb{E}|T_m(X)|$. We design an online stopping rule $\hat{m}$ that automatically balances the upfront cost against conformal efficiency *while preserving the original conformal guarantee*. Theoretically, we show that under mild regularity assumptions, the expected total cost of our stopping rule matches the best fixed calibration size in hindsight. Experimentally, we find that our stopping rule reduces cost compared to standard choices of $m$ from the literature by 41.4% $\pm$ 2.3%. Finally, as a concrete application we demonstrate a reduction from CP to the probably approximately correct labeling problem of Candès et al. (2025), under which our stopping rule minimizes the total labeling cost.

Theory · Deep Learning

Michelle Ching, Ioana Popescu, Nico Smith, Tianyi Ma, William Underwood, Richard Samworth

We study in-context learning for nonparametric regression with $\alpha$-Hölder smooth regression functions, for some $\alpha>0$. We prove that, with $n$ in-context examples and $d$-dimensional regression covariates, a pretrained transformer with $\Theta(\log n)$ parameters and $\Omega\bigl(n^{2\alpha/(2\alpha+d)}\log^3 n\bigr)$ pretraining sequences can achieve the minimax-optimal rate of convergence $O\bigl(n^{-2\alpha/(2\alpha+d)}\bigr)$ in mean squared error. Our result requires substantially fewer transformer parameters and pretraining sequences than previous results in the literature. This is achieved by showing that transformers are able to approximate local polynomial estimators efficiently by implementing a kernel-weighted polynomial basis and then running gradient descent.

Applications · Social Sciences

Haofei Yu, Yining Zhao, Guanyu Lin, Jiaxuan You

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events—from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs—remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs’ commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: *Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events?* In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations that link events to belief shifts or expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-Bench, derived from real-world prediction market data from both Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-Bench includes over 10k datapoints for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, and elections. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving RMSE reductions of 8.4% and 11.2% on Polymarket and Kalshi respectively, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

Optimization · Non-Convex

Zhanwang Deng, Yuqiu Su, Wen Huang

In this paper, we present the convergence analysis of the proximal Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for problems with block anti-upper triangular constraints. While the linear constraints can be treated separately, most analyses of ADMM and its variants predominantly regard the linear constraints as one. Hence, it relies on assumptions related to the entire constraint matrix, such as the full column rank. However, some problems with block anti-upper triangular constraints that can be solved by ADMM do not satisfy these assumptions. To fill this gap, a new assumption is proposed and used to guarantee the global convergence of the proximal ADMM for nonconvex problems. In the strongly convex setting, we also prove the global convergence of the proximal ADMM and establish the linear convergence under four different scenarios. This work extends the theoretical understanding of the multi-block ADMM to more general cases with block anti-upper triangular constraints.

Deep Learning · Foundation Models

Ishaan Watts, Catherine Li, Sachin Goyal, Jacob Mitchell Springer, Aditi Raghunathan

Standard optimizer choices for pre-training are designed to minimize pre-training loss. Yet pre-trained models are routinely subjected to further transformations—such as fine-tuning to acquire new capabilities or quantization for efficiency. In this work, we evaluate optimizer choices across model scales, token budgets, and datasets, and find that strategies that explicitly (Sharpness-Aware Minimization) or implicitly (large learning rates and Warmup–Stable–Decay schedules) reduce sharpness yield better downstream performance, even when they achieve comparable or worse pre-training loss. Combining these strategies yields a new pre-training recipe that substantially outperforms standard baselines with minimal compute overhead, delivering a better learning–forgetting frontier during fine-tuning and higher accuracy after quantization.

Serafim Batzoglou

bstract: Large language and reasoning models can be prompted to generate well-formed first-order formulas, but we still lack evaluations of their ability to produce correct, compact explanations under fully specified, mechanically checkable semantics. We study finite-structure concept synthesis: given several small finite relational worlds that are labeled extensionally with a unary target predicate $T(x)$, the learner must output a single first-order formula $\varphi(x)$ that recovers (explains) $T$ uniformly across worlds. Because the domains are finite, correctness is solver-verifiable via exact model checking and SMT. We introduce INDUCTION, a benchmark suite that (to our knowledge) provides the first challenging, end-to-end evaluation of first-order definition synthesis from extensional relational evidence in a fully abstract interface. INDUCTION includes three tightly related regimes---FullObs (full observation), CI (contrastive Yes/No worlds), and EC (partial observation under existential completion)---and reports gold-relative, budgeted metrics that penalize formula bloat. Across tasks we observe sharp difficulty gradients and persistent hard structural families; moreover, held-out world evaluation shows that among training-correct solutions, low-bloat formulas generalize far better than highly bloated ones, motivating bloat-aware scoring as a first-class metric for symbolic induction.

Social Aspects · Security

Ruixuan Huang, Qingyue Wang, Hantao Huang, Yudong Gao, Dong CHEN, Shuai Wang, Wei Wang

Mixture-of-Experts architectures have become the standard for efficient LLM scaling, typically employing expert parallelism to distribute experts across devices. However, the absence of explicit load balancing constraints during inference allows adversarial inputs to trigger severe routing concentration. We demonstrate that out-of-distribution prompts can manipulate the routing mechanism such that all tokens are routed to the same set of top-k experts, which creates computational bottlenecks on certain devices while forcing others to idle. This converts an efficiency mechanism into a denial-of-service attack vector, leading to violations of service-level agreements for time-to-first-token (TTFT). We propose RepetitionCurse, a black-box strategy to exploit this vulnerability. By identifying a universal flaw in MoE router behavior, RepetitionCurse constructs attack prompts using simple repetitive token patterns in a model-agnostic manner. On widely deployed MoE models hosted on 8-GPU clusters, our method increases TTFT by 20% to 148%, significantly degrading service quality.

Deep Learning · Other Representation Learning

Xuan Son Nguyen, Nistor Grozavu

Riemannian neural networks have proven effective in solving a variety of machine learning tasks. The key to their success lies in the development of principled Riemannian analogs of fundamental building blocks in deep neural networks (DNNs). Among those, Riemannian batch normalization (BN) layers have shown to enhance training stability and improve accuracy. In this paper, we propose BN layers for neural networks on complex domains. The proposed layers have close connections with existing Riemannian BN layers. We derive essential components for practical implementations of BN layers on some complex domains which are less studied in previous works, e.g., the Siegel disk domain. We conduct experiments on radar clutter classification, node classification, and action recognition demonstrating the efficacy of our method.

Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning

Khang Luong, Nam Nguyen, Hoang Ta, Hung Tran-The, Tuan Dam

We propose ***Var**iance **D**riven **E**xploration* (VarDE), a principled approach for pure exploration in *highly stochastic environments*, where the exploration process is dominated by stochastic variance. VarDE is built on a fundamental principle: *sampling effort should be allocated to minimize the uncertainty of the final decision*. We formalize the uncertainty of the final decision through a smooth decision function and derive allocation rules that explicitly capture how stochastic noise in individual components affects the reliability of the final output. We apply this methodology to three core problems of pure exploration -- Best Arm Identification (BAI), Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), and Best-Policy Identification (BPI) -- with theoretical guarantees on variance decay and simple regret. Empirically, we demonstrate consistent and significant improvements of VarDE over existing methods, with especially strong gains in highly stochastic environments.

Applications · Everything Else

Xindan Zhang, Weilong Yan, YUFEI SHI, Xuerui Qiu, Tao He, Ying Li, Ming Li, Hehe Fan

Point clouds provide a compact and expressive representation of 3D objects, and have recently been integrated into multimodal large language models (MLLMs). However, existing methods primarily focus on static objects, while understanding dynamic point cloud sequences remains largely unexplored. This limitation is mainly caused by the lack of large-scale cross-modal datasets and the difficulty of modeling motions in spatio-temporal contexts. To bridge this gap, we present 4DPC$^2$hat, the *first* MLLM tailored for dynamic point cloud understanding. To this end, we construct a large-scale cross-modal dataset 4DPC$^2$hat-200K via a meticulous two-stage pipeline consisting of topology-consistent 4D point construction and two-level captioning. The dataset contains over 44K dynamic object sequences, 700K point cloud frames, and 200K curated question–answer (QA) pairs, supporting inquiries about counting, temporal relationship, action, spatial relationship, and appearance. At the core of the framework, we introduce a Mamba-enhanced temporal reasoning MLLM to capture long-range dependencies and dynamic patterns among a point cloud sequence. Furthermore, we propose a *failure-aware* bootstrapping learning strategy that iteratively identifies model deficiencies and generates targeted QA supervision to continuously strengthen corresponding reasoning capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our 4DPC$^2$hat significantly improves action understanding and temporal reasoning compared with existing models, establishing a strong foundation for 4D dynamic point cloud understanding.