论文检索

Time Series

Han Lu, Xu-Yang Chen, Han-Jia Ye, De-Chuan Zhan

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but neglect channel correlations, limiting further enhancements. Several methods utilize mechanisms like attention or mixer to address this by capturing channel correlations, but they either introduce excessive complexity or rely too heavily on the correlation to achieve satisfactory results under distribution drifts, particularly with a large number of channels. Addressing this gap, this paper presents an efficient MLP-based model, the Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS), which incorporates a novel STar Aggregate-Redistribute (STAR) module. Unlike traditional approaches that manage channel interactions through distributed structures, \textit{e.g.}, attention, STAR employs a centralized strategy to improve efficiency and reduce reliance on the quality of each channel. It aggregates all series to form a global core representation, which is then dispatched and fused with individual series representations to facilitate channel interactions effectively. SOFTS achieves superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods with only linear complexity. The broad applicability of the STAR module across different forecasting models is also demonstrated empirically. We have made our code publicly available at https://github.com/Secilia-Cxy/SOFTS.

Time Series

Thibaut Germain, Samuel Gruffaz, Charles Truong, Alain Durmus, Laurent Oudre

Analyzing inter-individual variability of physiological functions is particularly appealing in medical and biological contexts to describe or quantify health conditions. Such analysis can be done by comparing individuals to a reference one with time series as biomedical data.This paper introduces an unsupervised representation learning (URL) algorithm for time series tailored to inter-individual studies. The idea is to represent time series as deformations of a reference time series. The deformations are diffeomorphisms parameterized and learned by our method called TS-LDDMM. Once the deformations and the reference time series are learned, the vector representations of individual time series are given by the parametrization of their corresponding deformation. At the crossroads between URL for time series and shape analysis, the proposed algorithm handles irregularly sampled multivariate time series of variable lengths and provides shape-based representations of temporal data.In this work, we establish a representation theorem for the graph of a time series and derive its consequences on the LDDMM framework. We showcase the advantages of our representation compared to existing methods using synthetic data and real-world examples motivated by biomedical applications.

Generative Models · Diffusion models

Elizabeth L. Baker, Gefan Yang, Michael Severinsen, Christy Hipsley, Stefan Sommer

Generative diffusion models and many stochastic models in science and engineering naturally live in infinite dimensions before discretisation. To incorporate observed data for statistical and learning tasks, one needs to condition on observations. While recent work has treated conditioning linear processes in infinite dimensions, conditioning non-linear processes in infinite dimensions has not been explored. This paper conditions function valued stochastic processes without prior discretisation. To do so, we use an infinite-dimensional version of Girsanov's theorem to condition a function-valued stochastic process, leading to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the conditioned process involving the score. We apply this technique to do time series analysis for shapes of organisms in evolutionary biology, where we discretise via the Fourier basis and then learn the coefficients of the score function with score matching methods.

Time Series

Zhongchao Yi, Zhengyang Zhou, Qihe Huang, Yanjiang Chen, Liheng Yu, Xu Wang, Yang Wang

Spatiotemporal learning has become a pivotal technique to enable urban intelligence. Traditional spatiotemporal models mostly focus on a specific task by assuming a same distribution between training and testing sets. However, given that urban systems are usually dynamic, multi-sourced with imbalanced data distributions, current specific task-specific models fail to generalize to new urban conditions and adapt to new domains without explicitly modeling interdependencies across various dimensions and types of urban data. To this end, we argue that there is an essential to propose a Continuous Multi-task Spatio-Temporal learning framework (CMuST) to empower collective urban intelligence, which reforms the urban spatiotemporal learning from single-domain to cooperatively multi-dimensional and multi-task learning. Specifically, CMuST proposes a new multi-dimensional spatiotemporal interaction network (MSTI) to allow cross-interactions between context and main observations as well as self-interactions within spatial and temporal aspects to be exposed, which is also the core for capturing task-level commonality and personalization. To ensure continuous task learning, a novel Rolling Adaptation training scheme (RoAda) is devised, which not only preserves task uniqueness by constructing data summarization-driven task prompts, but also harnesses correlated patterns among tasks by iterative model behavior modeling. We further establish a benchmark of three cities for multi-task spatiotemporal learning, and empirically demonstrate the superiority of CMuST via extensive evaluations on these datasets. The impressive improvements on both few-shot streaming data and new domain tasks against existing SOAT methods are achieved. Code is available at https://github.com/DILab-USTCSZ/CMuST.

Time Series

Yunshi Wen, Tengfei Ma, Lily Weng, Lam Nguyen, Anak Agung Julius

In time-series analysis, many recent works seek to provide a unified view and representation for time-series across multiple domains, leading to the development of foundation models for time-series data. Despite diverse modeling techniques, existing models are black boxes and fail to provide insights and explanations about their representations. In this paper, we present VQShape, a pre-trained, generalizable, and interpretable model for time-series representation learning and classification. By introducing a novel representation for time-series data, we forge a connection between the latent space of VQShape and shape-level features. Using vector quantization, we show that time-series from different domains can be described using a unified set of low-dimensional codes, where each code can be represented as an abstracted shape in the time domain. On classification tasks, we show that the representations of VQShape can be utilized to build interpretable classifiers, achieving comparable performance to specialist models. Additionally, in zero-shot learning, VQShape and its codebook can generalize to previously unseen datasets and domains that are not included in the pre-training process. The code and pre-trained weights are available at https://github.com/YunshiWen/VQShape.

Time Series

Jaegyun Park, Dae-Won Kim, Jaesung Lee

With the steady growth of sensing technology and wearable devices, sensor-based human activity recognition has become essential in widespread applications, such as healthcare monitoring and fitness tracking, where accurate and real-time systems are required. To achieve real-time response, recent studies have focused on lightweight neural network models.Specifically, they designed the network architectures by restricting the number of layers shallowly or connections of each layer.However, these approaches suffer from limited accuracy because the classifier only uses the features at the last layer.In this study, we propose a cheap all-layer aggregation network, CALANet, for accuracy improvement while maintaining the efficiency of existing real-time HAR models.Specifically, CALANet allows the classifier to aggregate the features for all layers, resulting in a performance gain.In addition, this work proves that the theoretical computation cost of CALANet is equivalent to that of conventional networks. Evaluated on seven publicly available datasets, CALANet outperformed existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance. The source codes of the CALANet are publicly available at https://github.com/jgpark92/CALANet.

Time Series

Shanghua Gao, Teddy Koker, Owen Queen, Tom Hartvigsen, Theodoros Tsiligkaridis, Marinka Zitnik

Although pre-trained transformers and reprogrammed text-based LLMs have shown strong performance on time series tasks, the best-performing architectures vary widely across tasks, with most models narrowly focused on specific areas, such as time series forecasting. Unifying predictive and generative time series tasks within a single model remains challenging. We introduce UniTS, a unified multi-task time series model that utilizes task tokenization to integrate predictive and generative tasks into a single framework. UniTS employs a modified transformer block to capture universal time series representations, enabling transferability from a heterogeneous, multi-domain pre-training dataset—characterized by diverse dynamic patterns, sampling rates, and temporal scales—to a wide range of downstream datasets with varied task specifications and data domains. Tested on 38 datasets across human activity sensors, healthcare, engineering, and finance, UniTS achieves superior performance compared to 12 forecasting models, 20 classification models, 18 anomaly detection models, and 16 imputation models, including adapted text-based LLMs. UniTS also demonstrates strong few-shot and prompt capabilities when applied to new domains and tasks. In single-task settings, UniTS outperforms competitive task-specialized time series models. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/mims-harvard/UniTS.

Time Series

Zhixian Wang, Linxiao Yang, Liang Sun, Qingsong Wen, Yi Wang

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

Time Series

Dongbin Kim, Jinseong Park, Jaewook Lee, Hoki Kim

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications across multiple domains and various scenarios. Although Transformers have dramatically advanced the landscape of forecasting, their effectiveness remains debated. Recent findings have indicated that simpler linear models might outperform complex Transformer-based approaches, highlighting the potential for more streamlined architectures. In this paper, we shift the focus from evaluating the overall Transformer architecture to specifically examining the effectiveness of self-attention for time series forecasting. To this end, we introduce a new architecture, Cross-Attention-only Time Series transformer (CATS), that rethinks the traditional transformer framework by eliminating self-attention and leveraging cross-attention mechanisms instead. By establishing future horizon-dependent parameters as queries and enhanced parameter sharing, our model not only improves long-term forecasting accuracy but also reduces the number of parameters and memory usage. Extensive experiment across various datasets demonstrates that our model achieves superior performance with the lowest mean squared error and uses fewer parameters compared to existing models.The implementation of our model is available at: https://github.com/dongbeank/CATS.

Computer Vision

Ao Wang, Hui Chen, Lihao Liu, Kai CHEN, Zijia Lin, Jungong Han, guiguang ding

Over the past years, YOLOs have emerged as the predominant paradigm in the field of real-time object detection owing to their effective balance between computational cost and detection performance. Researchers have explored the architectural designs, optimization objectives, data augmentation strategies, and others for YOLOs, achieving notable progress. However, the reliance on the non-maximum suppression (NMS) for post-processing hampers the end-to-end deployment of YOLOs and adversely impacts the inference latency. Besides, the design of various components in YOLOs lacks the comprehensive and thorough inspection, resulting in noticeable computational redundancy and limiting the model's capability. It renders the suboptimal efficiency, along with considerable potential for performance improvements. In this work, we aim to further advance the performance-efficiency boundary of YOLOs from both the post-processing and the model architecture. To this end, we first present the consistent dual assignments for NMS-free training of YOLOs, which brings the competitive performance and low inference latency simultaneously. Moreover, we introduce the holistic efficiency-accuracy driven model design strategy for YOLOs. We comprehensively optimize various components of YOLOs from both the efficiency and accuracy perspectives, which greatly reduces the computational overhead and enhances the capability. The outcome of our effort is a new generation of YOLO series for real-time end-to-end object detection, dubbed YOLOv10. Extensive experiments show that YOLOv10 achieves the state-of-the-art performance and efficiency across various model scales. For example, our YOLOv10-S is 1.8$\times$ faster than RT-DETR-R18 under the similar AP on COCO, meanwhile enjoying 2.8$\times$ smaller number of parameters and FLOPs. Compared with YOLOv9-C, YOLOv10-B has 46\% less latency and 25\% fewer parameters for the same performance. Code and models are available at https://github.com/THU-MIG/yolov10.

Time Series

Zhihao Dai, Ligang He, Shuanghua Yang, Matthew Leeke

Anomaly detection in time series data is fundamental to the design, deployment, and evaluation of industrial control systems. Temporal modeling has been the natural focus of anomaly detection approaches for time series data. However, the focus on temporal modeling can obscure or dilute the spatial information that can be used to capture complex interactions in multivariate time series. In this paper, we propose SARAD, an approach that leverages spatial information beyond data autoencoding errors to improve the detection and diagnosis of anomalies. SARAD trains a Transformer to learn the spatial associations, the pairwise inter-feature relationships which ubiquitously characterize such feedback-controlled systems. As new associations form and old ones dissolve, SARAD applies subseries division to capture their changes over time. Anomalies exhibit association descending patterns, a key phenomenon we exclusively observe and attribute to the disruptive nature of anomalies detaching anomalous features from others. To exploit the phenomenon and yet dismiss non-anomalous descent, SARAD performs anomaly detection via autoencoding in the association space. We present experimental results to demonstrate that SARAD achieves state-of-the-art performance, providing robust anomaly detection and a nuanced understanding of anomalous events.

Generative Models · Diffusion models

Ruofeng Yang, Zhijie Wang, Bo Jiang, Shuai Li

Variance exploding (VE) based diffusion models, an important class of diffusion models, have shown state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. However, only a few theoretical works analyze VE-based models, and those works suffer from a worse forward convergence rate $1/\text{poly}(T)$ than the $\exp{(-T)}$ of variance preserving (VP) based models, where $T$ is the forward diffusion time and the rate measures the distance between forward marginal distribution $q_T$ and pure Gaussian noise. The slow rate is due to the Brownian Motion without a drift term. In this work, we design a new drifted VESDE forward process, which allows a faster $\exp{(-T)}$ forward convergence rate. With this process, we achieve the first efficient polynomial sample complexity for a series of VE-based models with reverse SDE under the manifold hypothesis. Furthermore, unlike previous works, we allow the diffusion coefficient to be unbounded instead of a constant, which is closer to the SOTA models. Besides the reverse SDE, the other common reverse process is the probability flow ODE (PFODE) process, which is deterministic and enjoys faster sample speed. To deepen the understanding of VE-based models, we consider a more general setting considering reverse SDE and PFODE simultaneously, propose a unified tangent-based analysis framework, and prove the first quantitative convergence guarantee for SOTA VE-based models with reverse PFODE.We also show that the drifted VESDE can balance different error terms and improve generated samples without training through synthetic and real-world experiments.

Deep Learning · Attention Mechanisms

Jitesh Joshi, Sos Agaian, Youngjun Cho

Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) enables non-invasive extraction of blood volume pulse signals through imaging, transforming spatial-temporal data into time series signals. Advances in end-to-end rPPG approaches have focused on this transformation where attention mechanisms are crucial for feature extraction. However, existing methods compute attention disjointly across spatial, temporal, and channel dimensions. Here, we propose the Factorized Self-Attention Module (FSAM), which jointly computes multidimensional attention from voxel embeddings using nonnegative matrix factorization. To demonstrate FSAM's effectiveness, we developed FactorizePhys, an end-to-end 3D-CNN architecture for estimating blood volume pulse signals from raw video frames. Our approach adeptly factorizes voxel embeddings to achieve comprehensive spatial, temporal, and channel attention, enhancing performance of generic signal extraction tasks. Furthermore, we deploy FSAM within an existing 2D-CNN-based rPPG architecture to illustrate its versatility. FSAM and FactorizePhys are thoroughly evaluated against state-of-the-art rPPG methods, each representing different types of architecture and attention mechanism. We perform ablation studies to investigate the architectural decisions and hyperparameters of FSAM. Experiments on four publicly available datasets and intuitive visualization of learned spatial-temporal features substantiate the effectiveness of FSAM and enhanced cross-dataset generalization in estimating rPPG signals, suggesting its broader potential as a multidimensional attention mechanism. The code is accessible at https://github.com/PhysiologicAILab/FactorizePhys.

Data-centric AI

Alexander Nikitin, Letizia Iannucci, Samuel Kaski

Time series data are essential in a wide range of machine learning (ML) applications. However, temporal data are often scarce or highly sensitive, limiting data sharing and the use of data-intensive ML methods. A possible solution to this problem is the generation of synthetic datasets that resemble real data. In this work, we introduce Time Series Generative Modeling (TSGM), an open-source framework for the generative modeling and evaluation of synthetic time series datasets. TSGM includes a broad repertoire of machine learning methods: generative models, probabilistic, simulation-based approaches, and augmentation techniques. The framework enables users to evaluate the quality of the produced data from different angles: similarity, downstream effectiveness, predictive consistency, diversity, fairness, and privacy. TSGM is extensible and user-friendly, which allows researchers to rapidly implement their own methods and compare them in a shareable environment. The framework has been tested on open datasets and in production and proved to be beneficial in both cases. https://github.com/AlexanderVNikitin/tsgm

Jiawen Zhang, Xumeng Wen, Zhenwei Zhang, Shun Zheng, Jia Li, Jiang Bian

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries.Prior research on developing deep learning models for time-series forecasting has often concentrated on isolated aspects, such as long-term point forecasting or short-term probabilistic estimations. This narrow focus may result in skewed methodological choices and hinder the adaptability of these models to uncharted scenarios.While there is a rising trend in developing universal forecasting models, a thorough understanding of their advantages and drawbacks, especially regarding essential forecasting needs like point and distributional forecasts across short and long horizons, is still lacking.In this paper, we present ProbTS, a benchmark tool designed as a unified platform to evaluate these fundamental forecasting needs and to conduct a rigorous comparative analysis of numerous cutting-edge studies from recent years.We dissect the distinctive data characteristics arising from disparate forecasting requirements and elucidate how these characteristics can skew methodological preferences in typical research trajectories, which often fail to fully accommodate essential forecasting needs.Building on this, we examine the latest models for universal time-series forecasting and discover that our analyses of methodological strengths and weaknesses are also applicable to these universal models.Finally, we outline the limitations inherent in current research and underscore several avenues for future exploration.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Jehan Yang, Maxwell Soh, Vivianna Lieu, Douglas Weber, Zackory Erickson

This paper introduces the first generalization and adaptation benchmark using machine learning for evaluating out-of-distribution performance of electromyography (EMG) classification algorithms. The ability of an EMG classifier to handle inputs drawn from a different distribution than the training distribution is critical for real-world deployment as a control interface. By predicting the user’s intended gesture using EMG signals, we can create a wearable solution to control assistive technologies, such as computers, prosthetics, and mobile manipulator robots. This new out-of-distribution benchmark consists of two major tasks that have utility for building robust and adaptable control interfaces: 1) intersubject classification, and 2) adaptation using train-test splits for time-series. This benchmark spans nine datasets, the largest collection of EMG datasets in a benchmark. Among these, a new dataset is introduced, featuring a novel, easy-to-wear high-density EMG wearable for data collection. The lack of open-source benchmarks has made comparing accuracy results between papers challenging for the EMG research community. This new benchmark provides researchers with a valuable resource for analyzing practical measures of out-of-distribution performance for EMG datasets. Our code and data from our new dataset can be found at emgbench.github.io.

Time Series

Haoxin Liu, Shangqing Xu, Zhiyuan Zhao, Lingkai Kong, Harshavardhan Prabhakar Kamarthi, Aditya Sasanur, Megha Sharma, Jiaming Cui, Qingsong Wen, Chao Zhang 等

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. Whilereal-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSAmodels rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potentialof textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the firstmulti-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains.Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, thefirst-cut multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipeliningmultimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensiveexperiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality,evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40%in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and libraryrevolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. Thedataset is available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Ruohan Li, Yiqun Xie, Xiaowei Jia, Dongdong Wang, Yanhua Li, Yingxue Zhang, Zhihao Wang, Zhili Li

Solar power is a critical source of renewable energy, offering significant potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. However, the cloud induced-variability of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface presents a challenge for integrating solar power into the grid (e.g., storage and backup management). The new generation of geostationary satellites such as GOES-16 has become an important data source for large-scale and high temporal frequency solar radiation forecasting. However, no machine-learning-ready dataset has integrated geostationary satellite data with fine-grained solar radiation information to support forecasting model development and benchmarking with consistent metrics. We present SolarCube, a new ML-ready benchmark dataset for solar radiation forecasting. SolarCube covers 19 study areas distributed over multiple continents: North America, South America, Asia, and Oceania. The dataset supports short (i.e., 30 minutes to 6 hours) and long-term (i.e., day-ahead or longer) solar radiation forecasting at both point-level (i.e., specific locations of monitoring stations) and area-level, by processing and integrating data from multiple sources, including geostationary satellite images, physics-derived solar radiation, and ground station observations from different monitoring networks over the globe. We also evaluated a set of forecasting models for point- and image-based time-series data to develop performance benchmarks under different testing scenarios. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11498739. A Python library is available to conveniently generate different variations of the dataset based on user needs, along with baseline models at https://github.com/Ruohan-Li/SolarCube.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Eirini Angeloudi, Jeroen Audenaert, Micah Bowles, Benjamin M. Boyd, David Chemaly, Brian Cherinka, Ioana Ciucă, Miles Cranmer, Aaron Do, Matthew Grayling 等

We present the `Multimodal Universe`, a large-scale multimodal dataset of scientific astronomical data, compiled specifically to facilitate machine learning research. Overall, our dataset contains hundreds of millions of astronomical observations, constituting 100TB of multi-channel and hyper-spectral images, spectra, multivariate time series, as well as a wide variety of associated scientific measurements and metadata. In addition, we include a range of benchmark tasks representative of standard practices for machine learning methods in astrophysics. This massive dataset will enable the development of large multi-modal models specifically targeted towards scientific applications. All codes used to compile the dataset, and a description of how to access the data is available at https://github.com/MultimodalUniverse/MultimodalUniverse

Wei Chen, Xixuan Hao, Yuankai Wu, Yuxuan Liang

Since the inception of our planet, the meteorological environment, as reflected through spatio-temporal data, has always been a fundamental factor influencing human life, socio-economic progress, and ecological conservation. A comprehensive exploration of this data is thus imperative to gain a deeper understanding and more accurate forecasting of these environmental shifts. Despite the success of deep learning techniques within the realm of spatio-temporal data and earth science, existing public datasets are beset with limitations in terms of spatial scale, temporal coverage, and reliance on limited time series data. These constraints hinder their optimal utilization in practical applications. To address these issues, we introduce **Terra**, a multimodal spatio-temporal dataset spanning the earth. This dataset encompasses hourly time series data from 6,480,000 grid areas worldwide over the past 45 years, while also incorporating multimodal spatial supplementary information including geo-images and explanatory text. Through a detailed data analysis and evaluation of existing deep learning models within earth sciences, utilizing our constructed dataset. we aim to provide valuable opportunities for enhancing future research in spatio-temporal data mining, thereby advancing towards more spatio-temporal general intelligence. Our source code and data can be accessed at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/NeurIPS24-Terra.