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2,101篇论文匹配“Time Series”
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Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Laurent Bonnasse-Gahot, Christophe Pallier

Over the past decade, studies of naturalistic language processing where participants are scanned while listening to continuous text have flourished. Using word embeddings at first, then large language models, researchers have created encoding models to analyze the brain signals. Presenting these models with the same text as the participants allows to identify brain areas where there is a significant correlation between the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series and the ones predicted by the models' artificial neurons. One intriguing finding from these studies is that they have revealed highly symmetric bilateral activation patterns, somewhat at odds with the well-known left lateralization of language processing. Here, we report analyses of an fMRI dataset where we manipulate the complexity of large language models, testing 28 pretrained models from 8 different families, ranging from 124M to 14.2B parameters. First, we observe that the performance of models in predicting brain responses follows a scaling law, where the fit with brain activity increases linearly with the logarithm of the number of parameters of the model (and its performance on natural language processing tasks). Second, although this effect is present in both hemispheres, it is stronger in the left than in the right hemisphere. Specifically, the left-right difference in brain correlation follows a scaling law with the number of parameters. This finding reconciles computational analyses of brain activity using large language models with the classic observation from aphasic patients showing left hemisphere dominance for language.

Generative Models · Diffusion models

François Cornet, Grigory Bartosh, Mikkel Schmidt, Christian Andersson Naesseth

We introduce Equivariant Neural Diffusion (END), a novel diffusion model for molecule generation in 3D that is equivariant to Euclidean transformations. Compared to current state-of-the-art equivariant diffusion models, the key innovation in END lies in its learnable forward process for enhanced generative modelling. Rather than pre-specified, the forward process is parameterized through a time- and data-dependent transformation that is equivariant to rigid transformations. Through a series of experiments on standard molecule generation benchmarks, we demonstrate the competitive performance of END compared to several strong baselines for both unconditional and conditional generation.

Interpretability

Jasper Eppink, Floris Six Dijkstra, Wouter Bant, Ádám Divák

Deep Learning models have taken the front stage in the AI community, yet explainability challenges hinder their widespread adoption. Time series models, in particular, lack attention in this regard. This study tries to reproduce and extend the work of Enguehard (2023b), focusing on time series explainability by incorporating learnable masks and perturbations. Enguehard (2023b) employed two methods to learn these masks and perturbations, the preservation game (yielding SOTA results) and the deletion game (with poor performance). We extend the work by revising the deletion game’s loss function, testing the robustness of the proposed method on a novel weather dataset, and visualizing the learned masks and perturbations. Despite notable discrepancies in results across many experiments, our findings demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms all baselines and exhibits robust performance across datasets. However, visualizations for the preservation game reveal that the learned perturbations primarily resemble a constant zero signal, questioning the importance of learning perturbations. Nevertheless, our revised deletion game shows promise, recovering meaningful perturbations and, in certain instances, surpassing the performance of the preservation game.

Qibing Ren, Chang Gao, Jing Shao, Junchi Yan, Xin Tan, Wai Lam, Lizhuang Ma

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has brought about remarkable generative capabilities but also raised concerns about their potential misuse. While strategies like supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning from human feedback have enhanced their safety, these methods primarily focus on natural languages, which may not generalize to other domains. This paper introduces CodeAttack, a framework that transforms natural language inputs into code inputs, presenting a novel environment for testing the safety generalization of LLMs. Our comprehensive studies on state-of-the-art LLMs including GPT-4, Claude-2, and Llama-2 series reveal a new and universal safety vulnerability of these models against code input: CodeAttack bypasses the safety guardrails of all models more than 80% of the time. We find that a larger distribution gap between CodeAttack and natural language leads to weaker safety generalization, such as encoding natural language input with data structures. Furthermore, we give our hypotheses about the success of CodeAttack: the misaligned bias acquired by LLMs during code training, prioritizing code completion over avoiding the potential safety risk. Finally, we analyze potential mitigation measures. These findings highlight new safety risks in the code domain and the need for more robust safety alignment algorithms to match the code capabilities of LLMs.

Zihan Chen, Song Wang, Cong Shen, Jundong Li

In-context learning (ICL) empowers large language models (LLMs) to tackle new tasks by using a series of training instances as prompts. Since generating the prompts needs to sample from a vast pool of instances and annotate them (e.g., add labels in classification task), existing methods have proposed to select a subset of unlabeled examples for annotation, thus enhancing the quality of prompts and concurrently mitigating annotation costs. However, these methods often require a long time to select instances due to their complexity, hindering their practical viability. To address this limitation, we propose a graph-based selection method, FastGAS, designed to efficiently identify high-quality instances while minimizing computational overhead. Initially, we construct a data similarity graph based on instance similarities. Subsequently, employing a graph partitioning algorithm, we partition the graph into pieces. Within each piece (i.e., subgraph), we adopt a greedy approach to pick the most representative nodes. By aggregating nodes from diverse pieces and annotating the corresponding instances, we identify a set of diverse and representative instances for ICL. Compared to prior approaches, our method not only exhibits superior performance on different tasks but also significantly reduces selection time. In addition, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in LLMs of larger sizes.

Haoxin Liu, Zhiyuan Zhao, Jindong Wang, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, B. Aditya Prakash

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Prompting off-the-shelf Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrates strong zero-shot TSF capabilities while preserving computational efficiency. However, existing prompting methods oversimplify TSF as language next-token predictions, overlooking its dynamic nature and lack of integration with state-of-the-art prompt strategies such as Chain-of-Thought. Thus, we propose LSTPrompt, a novel approach for prompting LLMs in zero-shot TSF tasks. LSTPrompt decomposes TSF into short-term and long-term forecasting sub-tasks, tailoring prompts to each. LSTPrompt guides LLMs to regularly reassess forecasting mechanisms to enhance adaptability. Extensive evaluations demonstrate consistently better performance of LSTPrompt than existing prompting methods, and competitive results compared to foundation TSF models.

Meiyun Wang, Kiyoshi Izumi, Hiroki Sakaji

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention for their exceptional performance across a broad range of tasks, particularly in text analysis. However, the finance sector presents a distinct challenge due to its dependence on time-series data for complex forecasting tasks. In this study, we introduce a novel framework called LLMFactor, which employs Sequential Knowledge-Guided Prompting (SKGP) to identify factors that influence stock movements using LLMs. Unlike previous methods that relied on keyphrases or sentiment analysis, this approach focuses on extracting factors more directly related to stock market dynamics, providing clear explanations for complex temporal changes. Our framework directs the LLMs to create background knowledge through a fill-in-the-blank strategy and then discerns potential factors affecting stock prices from related news. Guided by background knowledge and identified factors, we leverage historical stock prices in textual format to predict stock movement. An extensive evaluation of the LLMFactor framework across four benchmark datasets from both the U.S. and Chinese stock markets demonstrates its superiority over existing state-of-the-art methods and its effectiveness in financial time-series forecasting.

Shir Ashury Tahan, Ariel Gera, Benjamin Sznajder, Leshem Choshen, Liat Ein-Dor, Eyal Shnarch

Model selection for a given target task can be costly, as it may entail extensive annotation of the quality of outputs of different models. We introduce DiffUse, an efficient method to make an informed decision between candidate text generation models based on preference annotations. DiffUse reduces the required amount of annotations, thus saving valuable time and resources in performing evaluation.DiffUse intelligently selects instances by clustering embeddings that represent the semantic differences between model outputs. Thus, it is able to identify a subset of examples that are more informative for preference decisions. Our method is model-agnostic, and can be applied to any text generation model for selecting between models, prompts and configurations. Moreover, we propose a practical iterative approach for dynamically determining how many instances to annotate. In a series of experiments over hundreds of model pairs, we demonstrate that DiffUse can dramatically reduce the required number of annotations – by up to 75% – while maintaining high evaluation reliability.

Xun Liang, Shichao Song, Simin Niu, Zhiyu Li, Feiyu Xiong, Bo Tang, Yezhaohui Wang, Dawei He, Cheng Peng, Zhonghao Wang 等

Large language models (LLMs) produce hallucinated text, compromising their practical utility in professional contexts. To assess the reliability of LLMs, numerous initiatives have developed benchmark evaluations for hallucination phenomena. However, they often employ constrained generation techniques to produce the evaluation dataset due to cost and time limitations. For instance, this may involve employing directed hallucination induction or deliberately modifying authentic text to generate hallucinations. These are not congruent with the unrestricted text generation demanded by real-world applications. Furthermore, a well-established Chinese-language dataset dedicated to the evaluation of hallucinations is presently lacking. Consequently, we have developed an Unconstrained Hallucination Generation Evaluation (UHGEval) benchmark, containing hallucinations generated by LLMs with minimal restrictions. Concurrently, we have established a comprehensive benchmark evaluation framework to aid subsequent researchers in undertaking scalable and reproducible experiments. We have also evaluated prominent Chinese LLMs and the GPT series models to derive insights regarding hallucination.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Yuhui Li, Fangyun Wei, Chao Zhang, Hongyang Zhang

Autoregressive decoding makes the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) time-consuming. In this paper, we reconsider speculative sampling and derive two key observations. Firstly, autoregression at the feature (second-to-top-layer) level is more straightforward than at the token level. Secondly, the inherent uncertainty in feature (second-to-top-layer) level autoregression constrains its performance. Based on these insights, we introduce EAGLE (Extrapolation Algorithm for Greater Language-model Efficiency), a simple yet highly efficient speculative sampling framework. By incorporating a token sequence advanced by one time step, EAGLE effectively resolves the uncertainty, enabling precise second-to-top-layer feature prediction with minimal overhead. We conducted comprehensive evaluations of EAGLE, including all models from the Vicuna and LLaMA2-Chat series, the MoE model Mixtral 8x7B Instruct, and tasks in dialogue, code generation, mathematical reasoning, and instruction following. For LLaMA2-Chat 70B, EAGLE achieved a latency speedup ratio of **2.7x-3.5x**, doubled throughput, while maintaining the distribution of the generated text.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Dongyang Liu, Renrui Zhang, Longtian Qiu, Siyuan Huang, Weifeng Lin, Shitian Zhao, Shijie Geng, Ziyi Lin, Peng Jin, Kaipeng Zhang 等

We propose SPHINX-X, an extensive Multi-modality Large Language Model (MLLM) series developed upon SPHINX. To improve the architecture and training efficiency, we modify the SPHINX framework by removing redundant visual encoders, bypassing fully-padded sub-images with skip tokens, and simplifying multi-stage training into a one-stage all-in-one paradigm. To fully unleash the potential of MLLMs, we assemble a comprehensive multi-domain and multi-modal dataset covering publicly available resources in language, vision, and vision-language tasks. We further enrich this collection with our curated OCR intensive and Set-of-Mark datasets, extending the diversity and generality. By training over different base LLMs including TinyLlama-1.1B, InternLM2-7B, LLaMA2-13B, and Mixtral-8$\times$7B, we obtain a spectrum of MLLMs that vary in parameter size and multilingual capabilities. Comprehensive benchmarking reveals a strong correlation between the multi-modal performance with the data and parameter scales. Code and models are released at https://github.com/Alpha-VLLM/LLaMA2-Accessory.

Applications · Time Series

Mononito Goswami, Konrad Szafer, Arjun Choudhry, Yifu Cai, Shuo Li, Artur Dubrawski

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time series analysis. Pre-training large models on time series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time series repository, and (2) diverse time series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time series, called the Time series Pile, and systematically tackle time series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time series models. Pre-trained models (AutonLab/MOMENT-1-large) and Time Series Pile (AutonLab/Timeseries-PILE) are available on [Huggingface](https://huggingface.co/AutonLab).

Applications · Time Series

Xiwen Chen, Peijie Qiu, Wenhui Zhu, Huayu Li, Hao Wang, Aristeidis Sotiras, Yalin Wang, Abolfazl Razi

Deep neural networks, including transformers and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have significantly improved multivariate time series classification (MTSC). However, these methods often rely on supervised learning, which does not fully account for the sparsity and locality of patterns in time series data (e.g., quantification of diseases-related anomalous points in ECG and abnormal detection in signal). To address this challenge, we formally discuss and reformulate MTSC as a weakly supervised problem, introducing a novel multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework for better localization of patterns of interest and modeling time dependencies within time series. Our novel approach, TimeMIL, formulates the temporal correlation and ordering within a time-aware MIL pooling, leveraging a tokenized transformer with a specialized learnable wavelet positional token. The proposed method surpassed 26 recent state-of-the-art MTSC methods, underscoring the effectiveness of the weakly supervised TimeMIL in MTSC. The code is available https://github.com/xiwenc1/TimeMIL.

Theory · Learning Theory

Niclas Göring, Florian Hess, Manuel Brenner, Zahra Monfared, Daniel Durstewitz

In science we are interested in finding the governing equations, the dynamical rules, underlying empirical phenomena. While traditionally scientific models are derived through cycles of human insight and experimentation, recently deep learning (DL) techniques have been advanced to reconstruct dynamical systems (DS) directly from time series data. State-of-the-art dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) methods show promise in capturing invariant and long-term properties of observed DS, but their ability to generalize to unobserved domains remains an open challenge. Yet, this is a crucial property we would expect from any viable scientific theory. In this work, we provide a formal framework that addresses generalization in DSR. We explain why and how out-of-domain (OOD) generalization (OODG) in DSR profoundly differs from OODG considered elsewhere in machine learning. We introduce mathematical notions based on topological concepts and ergodic theory to formalize the idea of learnability of a DSR model. We formally prove that black-box DL techniques, without adequate structural priors, generally will not be able to learn a generalizing DSR model. We also show this empirically, considering major classes of DSR algorithms proposed so far, and illustrate where and why they fail to generalize across the whole phase space. Our study provides the first comprehensive mathematical treatment of OODG in DSR, and gives a deeper conceptual understanding of where the fundamental problems in OODG lie and how they could possibly be addressed in practice.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Raunaq Bhirangi, Chenyu Wang, Venkatesh Pattabiraman, Carmel Majidi, Abhinav Gupta, Tess Hellebrekers, Lerrel Pinto

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Applications · Time Series

Tobia Boschi, FRANCESCA BONIN, Rodrigo Ordonez-Hurtado, Alessandra Pascale, Jonathan Epperlein

This paper introduces a novel methodology for Feature Selection for Functional Classification, FSFC, that addresses the challenge of jointly performing feature selection and classification of functional data in scenarios with categorical responses and multivariate longitudinal features. FSFC tackles a newly defined optimization problem that integrates logistic loss and functional features to identify the most crucial variables for classification. To address the minimization procedure, we employ functional principal components and develop a new adaptive version of the Dual Augmented Lagrangian algorithm. The computational efficiency of FSFC enables handling high-dimensional scenarios where the number of features may considerably exceed the number of statistical units. Simulation experiments demonstrate that FSFC outperforms other machine learning and deep learning methods in computational time and classification accuracy. Furthermore, the FSFC feature selection capability can be leveraged to significantly reduce the problem's dimensionality and enhance the performances of other classification algorithms. The efficacy of FSFC is also demonstrated through a real data application, analyzing relationships between four chronic diseases and other health and demographic factors. FSFC source code is publicly available at https://github.com/IBM/funGCN.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Antonio Orvieto, Soham De, Caglar Gulcehre, Razvan Pascanu, Samuel Smith

Deep neural networks based on linear RNNs interleaved with position-wise MLPs are gaining traction as competitive approaches for sequence modeling. Examples of such architectures include state-space models (SSMs) like S4, LRU, and Mamba: recently proposed models that achieve promising performance on text, genetics, and other data that require long-range reasoning. Despite experimental evidence highlighting these architectures' effectiveness and computational efficiency, their expressive power remains relatively unexplored, especially in connection to specific choices crucial in practice - e.g., carefully designed initialization distribution and potential use of complex numbers. In this paper, we show that combining MLPs with both real or complex linear diagonal recurrences leads to arbitrarily precise approximation of regular causal sequence-to-sequence maps. At the heart of our proof, we rely on a separation of concerns: the linear RNN provides a lossless encoding of the input sequence, and the MLP performs non-linear processing on this encoding. While we show that real diagonal linear recurrences are enough to achieve universality in this architecture, we prove that employing complex eigenvalues near unit disk - i.e., empirically the most successful strategy in S4 - greatly helps the RNN in storing information. We connect this finding with the vanishing gradient issue and provide experiments supporting our claims.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Zichuan Liu, Tianchun Wang, Jimeng Shi, Xu Zheng, Zhuomin Chen, Lei Song, Wenqian Dong, Jayantha Obeysekera, Farhad Shirani, Dongsheng Luo

Explaining deep learning models operating on time series data is crucial in various applications of interest which require interpretable and transparent insights from time series signals. In this work, we investigate this problem from an information theoretic perspective and show that most existing measures of explainability may suffer from trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. To address these issues, we introduce a simple yet practical objective function for time series explainable learning. The design of the objective function builds upon the principle of information bottleneck (IB), and modifies the IB objective function to avoid trivial solutions and distributional shift issues. We further present TimeX++, a novel explanation framework that leverages a parametric network to produce explanation-embedded instances that are both in-distributed and label-preserving. We evaluate TimeX++ on both synthetic and real-world datasets comparing its performance against leading baselines, and validate its practical efficacy through case studies in a real-world environmental application. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations show that TimeX++ outperforms baselines across all datasets, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/TimeXplusplus.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Sangjun Park, JinYeong Bak

Making neural networks remember over the long term has been a longstanding issue. Although several external memory techniques have been introduced, most focus on retaining recent information in the short term. Regardless of its importance, information tends to be fatefully forgotten over time. We present Memoria, a memory system for artificial neural networks, drawing inspiration from humans and applying various neuroscientific and psychological theories. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of Memoria in the diverse tasks of sorting, language modeling, and classification, surpassing conventional techniques. Engram analysis reveals that Memoria exhibits the primacy, recency, and temporal contiguity effects which are characteristics of human memory.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Wei Deng, Weijian Luo, Yixin Tan, Marin Biloš, Yu Chen, Yuriy Nevmyvaka, Ricky T. Q. Chen

Schrödinger bridge (SB) has emerged as the go-to method for optimizing transportation plans in diffusion models. However, SB requires estimating the intractable forward score functions, inevitably resulting in the (costly) implicit training loss based on simulated trajectories. To improve the scalability while preserving efficient transportation plans, we leverage variational inference to linearize the forward score functions (variational scores) of SB and restore *simulation-free* properties in training backward scores. We propose the variational Schrödinger diffusion model (VSDM), where the forward process is a multivariate diffusion and the variational scores are adaptively optimized for efficient transport. Theoretically, we use stochastic approximation to prove the convergence of the variational scores and show the convergence of the adaptively generated samples based on the optimal variational scores. Empirically, we test the algorithm in simulated examples and observe that VSDM is efficient in generations of anisotropic shapes and yields straighter sample trajectories compared to the single-variate diffusion. We also verify the scalability of the algorithm in real-world data and achieve competitive unconditional generation performance in CIFAR10 and conditional generation in time series modeling. Notably, VSDM no longer depends on warm-up initializations required by SB.