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Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Saya Higuchi, Sebastian Kairat, Sander Bohte, Sebastian Otte

The resonate-and-fire (RF) neuron, introduced over two decades ago, is a simple, efficient, yet biologically plausible spiking neuron model, which can extract frequency patterns within the time domain due to its resonating membrane dynamics. However, previous RF formulations suffer from intrinsic shortcomings that limit effective learning and prevent exploiting the principled advantage of RF neurons. Here, we introduce the balanced RF (BRF) neuron, which alleviates some of the intrinsic limitations of vanilla RF neurons and demonstrates its effectiveness within recurrent spiking neural networks (RSNNs) on various sequence learning tasks. We show that networks of BRF neurons achieve overall higher task performance, produce only a fraction of the spikes, and require significantly fewer parameters as compared to modern RSNNs. Moreover, BRF-RSNN consistently provide much faster and more stable training convergence, even when bridging many hundreds of time steps during backpropagation through time (BPTT). These results underscore that our BRF-RSNN is a strong candidate for future large-scale RSNN architectures, further lines of research in SNN methodology, and more efficient hardware implementations.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Xiuheng Wang, Ricardo Borsoi, Cédric Richard

Non-parametric detection of change points in streaming time series data that belong to Euclidean spaces has been extensively studied in the literature. Nevertheless, when the data belongs to a Riemannian manifold, existing approaches are no longer applicable as they fail to account for the structure and geometry of the manifold. In this paper, we introduce a non-parametric algorithm for online change point detection in manifold-valued data streams. This algorithm monitors the generalized Karcher mean of the data, computed using stochastic Riemannian optimization. We provide theoretical bounds on the detection and false alarm rate performances of the algorithm, using a new result on the non-asymptotic convergence of the stochastic Riemannian gradient descent. We apply our algorithm to two different Riemannian manifolds. Experimental results with both synthetic and real data illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Applications · Health

Luyuan Xie, Manqing Lin, Tianyu Luan, Cong Li, Yuejian Fang, Qingni Shen, Zhonghai Wu

Federated learning is widely used in medical applications for training global models without needing local data access, but varying computational capabilities and network architectures (system heterogeneity) across clients pose significant challenges in effectively aggregating information from non-independently and identically distributed (non-IID) data (statistic heterogeneity). Current federated learning methods using knowledge distillation require public datasets, raising privacy and data collection issues. Additionally, these datasets require additional local computing and storage resources, which is a burden for medical institutions with limited hardware conditions. In this paper, we introduce a novel federated learning paradigm, named Model Heterogeneous personalized Federated Learning via Injection and Distillation (MH-pFLID). Our framework leverages a lightweight messenger model, eliminating the need for public datasets and reducing the training cost for each client. We also develops receiver and transmitter modules for each client to separate local biases from generalizable information, reducing biased data collection and mitigating client drift. Our experiments on various medical tasks including image classification, image segmentation, and time-series classification, show MH-pFLID outperforms state-of-the-art methods in all these areas and has good generalizability.

Applications · Time Series

Shikai Fang, Qingsong Wen, Yingtao Luo, Shandian Zhe, Liang Sun

In real-world scenarios such as traffic and energy management, we frequently encounter large volumes of time-series data characterized by missing values, noise, and irregular sampling patterns. While numerous imputation methods have been proposed, the majority tend to operate within a local horizon, which involves dividing long sequences into batches of fixed-length segments for model training. This local horizon often leads to the overlooking of global trends and periodic patterns. More importantly, most methods assume the observations are sampled at regular timestamps, and fail to handle complex irregular sampled time series in various applications. Additionally, most existing methods are learned in an offline manner. Thus, it is not suitable for applications with rapidly arriving streaming data. To address these challenges, we propose BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition. Our method conceptualizes multivariate time series as the weighted combination of groups of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns. We employ a suite of Gaussian Processes (GPs),each with a unique kernel, as functional priors to model these factors. For computational efficiency, we further convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE), and developing a scalable algorithm for online inference. The proposed method can not only handle imputation over arbitrary timestamps, but also offer uncertainty quantification and interpretability for the downstream application. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets. We release the code at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/BayOTIDE.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Manuel Brenner, Florian Hess, Georgia Koppe, Daniel Durstewitz

Many, if not most, systems of interest in science are naturally described as nonlinear dynamical systems. Empirically, we commonly access these systems through time series measurements. Often such time series may consist of discrete random variables rather than continuous measurements, or may be composed of measurements from multiple data modalities observed simultaneously. For instance, in neuroscience we may have behavioral labels in addition to spike counts and continuous physiological recordings. While by now there is a burgeoning literature on deep learning for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), multimodal data integration has hardly been considered in this context. Here we provide such an efficient and flexible algorithmic framework that rests on a multimodal variational autoencoder for generating a sparse teacher signal that guides training of a reconstruction model, exploiting recent advances in DSR training techniques. It enables to combine various sources of information for optimal reconstruction, even allows for reconstruction from symbolic data (class labels) alone, and connects different types of observations within a common latent dynamics space. In contrast to previous multimodal data integration techniques for scientific applications, our framework is fully generative, producing, after training, trajectories with the same geometrical and temporal structure as those of the ground truth system.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · General Machine Learning Techniques

Ilya Kaufman, Omri Azencot

Data augmentation (DA) methods tailored to specific domains generate synthetic samples by applying transformations that are appropriate for the characteristics of the underlying data domain, such as rotations on images and time warping on time series data. In contrast, *domain-independent* approaches, e.g. *mixup*, are applicable to various data modalities, and as such they are general and versatile. While regularizing classification tasks via DA is a well-explored research topic, the effect of DA on regression problems received less attention. To bridge this gap, we study the problem of domain-independent augmentation for regression, and we introduce *FOMA*: a new data-driven domain-independent data augmentation method. Essentially, our approach samples new examples from the tangent planes of the train distribution. Augmenting data in this way aligns with the network tendency towards capturing the dominant features of its input signals. We evaluate *FOMA* on in-distribution generalization and out-of-distribution robustness benchmarks, and we show that it improves the generalization of several neural architectures. We also find that strong baselines based on *mixup* are less effective in comparison to our approach. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/azencot-group/FOMA

Applications · Time Series

Sai Shankar Narasimhan, Shubhankar Agarwal, Oguzhan Akcin, Sujay Sanghavi, Sandeep Chinchali

Imagine generating a city’s electricity demand pattern based on weather, the presence of an electric vehicle, and location, which could be used for capacity planning during a winter freeze. Such real-world time series are often enriched with paired heterogeneous contextual metadata (e.g., weather and location). Current approaches to time series generation often ignore this paired metadata. Additionally, the heterogeneity in metadata poses several practical challenges in adapting existing conditional generation approaches from the image, audio, and video domains to the time series domain. To address this gap, we introduce TIME WEAVER, a novel diffusion-based model that leverages the heterogeneous metadata in the form of categorical, continuous, and even time-variant variables to significantly improve time series generation. Additionally, we show that naive extensions of standard evaluation metrics from the image to the time series domain are insufficient. These metrics do not penalize conditional generation approaches for their poor specificity in reproducing the metadata-specific features in the generated time series. Thus, we innovate a novel evaluation metric that accurately captures the specificity of conditional generation and the realism of the generated time series. We show that TIME WEAVER outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), by up to 30% in downstream classification tasks on real-world energy, medical, air quality, and traffic datasets.

Applications · Time Series

Asterios Tsiourvas, Wei Sun, Georgia Perakis, Pin-Yu Chen, Yada Zhu

Hierarchical time series forecasting requires not only prediction accuracy but also coherency, i.e., forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy. Recent literature has shown that reconciliation via projection outperforms prior methods such as top-down or bottom-up approaches. Unlike existing work that pre-specifies a projection matrix (e.g., orthogonal), we study the problem of learning the optimal oblique projection from data for coherent forecasting of hierarchical time series. In addition to the unbiasedness-preserving property, oblique projection implicitly accounts for the hierarchy structure and assigns different weights to individual time series, providing significant adaptability over orthogonal projection which treats base forecast errors equally. We examine two broad classes of projections, namely Euclidean projection and general oblique projections. We propose to model the reconciliation step as a learnable, structured, projection layer in the neural forecaster architecture. The proposed approach allows for the efficient learning of the optimal projection in an end-to-end framework where both the neural forecaster and the projection layer are learned simultaneously. An empirical evaluation of real-world hierarchical time series datasets demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed method over existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Jonathan Crabbé, Nicolas Huynh, Jan Stanczuk, M van der Schaar

Fourier analysis has been an instrumental tool in the development of signal processing. This leads us to wonder whether this framework could similarly benefit generative modelling. In this paper, we explore this question through the scope of time series diffusion models. More specifically, we analyze whether representing time series in the frequency domain is a useful inductive bias for score-based diffusion models. By starting from the canonical SDE formulation of diffusion in the time domain, we show that a dual diffusion process occurs in the frequency domain with an important nuance: Brownian motions are replaced by what we call mirrored Brownian motions, characterized by mirror symmetries among their components. Building on this insight, we show how to adapt the denoising score matching approach to implement diffusion models in the frequency domain. This results in frequency diffusion models, which we compare to canonical time diffusion models. Our empirical evaluation on real-world datasets, covering various domains like healthcare and finance, shows that frequency diffusion models better capture the training distribution than time diffusion models. We explain this observation by showing that time series from these datasets tend to be more localized in the frequency domain than in the time domain, which makes them easier to model in the former case. All our observations point towards impactful synergies between Fourier analysis and diffusion models.

Applications · Time Series

William Toner, Luke Darlow

Despite their simplicity, linear models perform well at time series forecasting, even when pitted against deeper and more expensive models. A number of variations to the linear model have been proposed, often including some form of feature normalisation that improves model generalisation. In this paper we analyse the sets of functions expressible using these linear model architectures. In so doing we show that several popular variants of linear models for time series forecasting are equivalent and functionally indistinguishable from standard, unconstrained linear regression. We characterise the model classes for each linear variant. We demonstrate that each model can be reinterpreted as unconstrained linear regression over a suitably augmented feature set, and therefore admit closed-form solutions when using a mean-squared loss function. We provide experimental evidence that the models under inspection learn nearly identical solutions, and finally demonstrate that the simpler closed form solutions are superior forecasters across 72% dataset-horizon settings.

Optimization · Bilevel optimization

Yutong He, Jie Hu, Xinmeng Huang, Songtao Lu, Bin Wang, Kun Yuan

Stochastic bilevel optimization tackles challenges involving nested optimization structures. Its fast-growing scale nowadays necessitates efficient distributed algorithms. In conventional distributed bilevel methods, each worker must transmit full-dimensional stochastic gradients to the server every iteration, leading to significant communication overhead and thus hindering efficiency and scalability. To resolve this issue, we introduce the **first** family of distributed bilevel algorithms with communication compression. The primary challenge in algorithmic development is mitigating bias in hypergradient estimation caused by the nested structure. We first propose C-SOBA, a simple yet effective approach with unbiased compression and provable linear speedup convergence. However, it relies on strong assumptions on bounded gradients. To address this limitation, we explore the use of moving average, error feedback, and multi-step compression in bilevel optimization, resulting in a series of advanced algorithms with relaxed assumptions and improved convergence properties. Numerical experiments show that our compressed bilevel algorithms can achieve $10\times$ reduction in communication overhead without severe performance degradation.

Applications · Time Series

Guoqi Yu, Jing Zou, Xiaowei Hu, Angelica I Aviles-Rivero, Jing Qin, Shujun Wang

Predicting multivariate time series is crucial, demanding precise modeling of intricate patterns, including inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations. Distinctive trend characteristics in each time series pose challenges, and existing methods, relying on basic moving average kernels, may struggle with the non-linear structure and complex trends in real-world data. Given that, we introduce a learnable decomposition strategy to capture dynamic trend information more reasonably. Additionally, we propose a dual attention module tailored to capture inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations simultaneously for better time series forecasting, which is implemented by channel-wise self-attention and autoregressive self-attention. To evaluate the effectiveness of our method, we conducted experiments across eight open-source datasets and compared it with the state-of-the-art methods. Through the comparison results, our $\textbf{Leddam}$ ($\textbf{LE}arnable$ $\textbf{D}ecomposition$ and $\textbf{D}ual $ $\textbf{A}ttention$ $\textbf{M}odule$) not only demonstrates significant advancements in predictive performance but also the proposed decomposition strategy can be plugged into other methods with a large performance-boosting, from 11.87% to 48.56% MSE error degradation. Code is available at this link: https://github.com/Levi-Ackman/Leddam.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Mai Zeng, Florence Regol, Mark Coates

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have emerged as the primary framework for predicting sequences of events that occur at irregular time intervals, but their sequential nature can hamper performance for long-horizon forecasts. To address this, we introduce a novel approach that incorporates a diffusion generative model. The model facilitates sequence-to-sequence prediction, allowing multi-step predictions based on historical event sequences. In contrast to previous approaches, our model directly learns the joint probability distribution of types and inter-arrival times for multiple events. The model is composed of two diffusion processes, one for the time intervals and one for the event types. These processes interact through their respective denoising functions, which can take as input intermediate representations from both processes, allowing the model to learn complex interactions. We demonstrate that our proposal outperforms state-of-the-art baselines for long-horizon forecasting of TPPs.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Xu Cheng, Lei Cheng, Zhaoran Peng, Yang Xu, Tian Han, Quanshi Zhang

This paper aims to explain how a deep neural network (DNN) gradually extracts new knowledge and forgets noisy features through layers in forward propagation. Up to now, although how to define knowledge encoded by the DNN has not reached a consensus so far, previous studies have derived a series of mathematical evidences to take interactions as symbolic primitive inference patterns encoded by a DNN. We extend the definition of interactions and, for the first time, extract interactions encoded by intermediate layers. We quantify and track the newly emerged interactions and the forgotten interactions in each layer during the forward propagation, which shed new light on the learning behavior of DNNs. The layer-wise change of interactions also reveals the change of the generalization capacity and instability of feature representations of a DNN.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yair Schiff, Zhong Yi Wan, Jeffrey Parker, Stephan Hoyer, Volodymyr Kuleshov, Fei Sha, Leonardo Zepeda-Nunez

Learning dynamics from dissipative chaotic systems is notoriously difficult due to their inherent instability, as formalized by their positive Lyapunov exponents, which exponentially amplify errors in the learned dynamics. However, many of these systems exhibit ergodicity and an attractor: a compact and highly complex manifold, to which trajectories converge in finite-time, that supports an invariant measure, i.e., a probability distribution that is invariant under the action of the dynamics, which dictates the long-term statistical behavior of the system. In this work, we leverage this structure to propose a new framework that targets learning the invariant measure as well as the dynamics, in contrast with typical methods that only target the misfit between trajectories, which often leads to divergence as the trajectories' length increases. We use our framework to propose a tractable and sample efficient objective that can be used with any existing learning objectives. Our **Dy**namics **S**table **L**earning by **I**nvariant **M**easure (DySLIM) objective enables model training that achieves better point-wise tracking and long-term statistical accuracy relative to other learning objectives. By targeting the distribution with a scalable regularization term, we hope that this approach can be extended to more complex systems exhibiting slowly-variant distributions, such as weather and climate models. Code to reproduce our experiments is available here: https://github.com/google-research/swirl-dynamics/tree/main/swirl_dynamics/projects/ergodic.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Yirui Liu, Xinghao Qiao, Yulong Pei, Liying Wang

This paper introduces the Deep Functional Factor Model (DF2M), a Bayesian nonparametric model designed for analysis of high-dimensional functional time series. DF2M is built upon the Indian Buffet Process and the multi-task Gaussian Process, incorporating a deep kernel function that captures non-Markovian and nonlinear temporal dynamics. Unlike many black-box deep learning models, DF2M offers an explainable approach to utilizing neural networks by constructing a factor model and integrating deep neural networks within the kernel function. Additionally, we develop a computationally efficient variational inference algorithm to infer DF2M. Empirical results from four real-world datasets demonstrate that DF2M provides better explainability and superior predictive accuracy compared to conventional deep learning models for high-dimensional functional time series.

Theory · Deep Learning

Chuanhao Sun, Zhihang Yuan, Kai Xu, Luo Mai, Siddharth N, Shuo Chen, Mahesh Marina

Fourier features based positional encoding (PE) is commonly used in machine learning tasks that involve learning high-frequency features from low-dimensional inputs, such as 3D view synthesis and time series regression with neural tangent kernels. Despite their effectiveness, existing PEs require manual, empirical adjustment of crucial hyperparameters, specifically the Fourier features, tailored to each unique task. Further, PEs face challenges in efficiently learning high-frequency functions, particularly in tasks with limited data. In this paper, we introduce sinusoidal PE (SPE), designed to efficiently learn adaptive frequency features closely aligned with the true underlying function. Our experiments demonstrate that SPE, without hyperparameter tuning, consistently achieves enhanced fidelity and faster training across various tasks, including 3D view synthesis, Text-to-Speech generation, and 1D regression. SPE is implemented as a direct replacement for existing PEs. Its plug-and-play nature lets numerous tasks easily adopt and benefit from SPE.

Theory · Probabilistic Methods

Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, Yao Xie

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ that builds prediction $\textit{regions}$ for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate $\textit{finite-sample}$ high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yara Shamshoum, Nitzan Hodos, Yuval Sieradzki, Assaf Schuster

Many recent works use machine learning models to solve various complex algorithmic problems. However, these models attempt to reach a solution without considering the problem's required computational complexity, which can be detrimental to their ability to solve it correctly. In this work we investigate the effect of computational time and memory on generalization of implicit algorithmic solvers. To do so, we focus on the Differentiable Neural Computer (DNC), a general problem solver that also lets us reason directly about its usage of time and memory. In this work, we argue that the number of planning steps the model is allowed to take, which we call ”planning budget”, is a constraint that can cause the model to generalize poorly and hurt its ability to fully utilize its external memory. We evaluate our method on Graph Shortest Path, Convex Hull, Graph MinCut and Associative Recall, and show how the planning budget can drastically change the behavior of the learned algorithm, in terms of learned time complexity, training time, stability and generalization to inputs larger than those seen during training.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Christoph Jürgen Hemmer, Manuel Brenner, Florian Hess, Daniel Durstewitz

In dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) we seek to infer from time series measurements a generative model of the underlying dynamical process. This is a prime objective in any scientific discipline, where we are particularly interested in parsimonious models with a low parameter load. A common strategy here is parameter pruning, removing all parameters with small weights. However, here we find this strategy does not work for DSR, where even low magnitude parameters can contribute considerably to the system dynamics. On the other hand, it is well known that many natural systems which generate complex dynamics, like the brain or ecological networks, have a sparse topology with comparatively few links. Inspired by this, we show that *geometric pruning*, where in contrast to magnitude-based pruning weights with a low contribution to an attractor's geometrical structure are removed, indeed manages to reduce parameter load substantially without significantly hampering DSR quality. We further find that the networks resulting from geometric pruning have a specific type of topology, and that this topology, and not the magnitude of weights, is what is most crucial to performance. We provide an algorithm that automatically generates such topologies which can be used as priors for generative modeling of dynamical systems by RNNs, and compare it to other well studied topologies like small-world or scale-free networks.