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General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Tianyu Liu, kai sun, Fuchun Sun, Yu Luo, Yuanlong Zhang

Temporal sequences, even after stationarization, often exhibit leptokurtic distributions with fat tails and persistent distribution shifts. These properties destabilize feature dynamics, amplify model variance, and hinder model convergence in time series forecasting. To address this, we propose Morphing-Flow (MoF), a framework that combines a spline-based transform layer (Flow) and a test-time-trained method (Morph), which adaptively normalizes non-stationary, fat-tailed distributions while preserving critical extreme features. MoF ensures that inputs remain within a network’s effective activation space—a structured, normal-like distribution—even under distributional drift. Experiments across eight datasets show that MoF achieves state-of-the-art performance: With a simple linear backbone architecture, it matches the performance of state-of-the-art models on datasets such as Electricity and ETTh2. When paired with a patch-based Mamba architecture, MoF outperforms its closest competitor by 6.3% on average and reduces forecasting errors in fat-tailed datasets such as Exchange by 21.7%. Moreover, MoF acts as a plug-and-play module, boosting performance in existing models without architectural changes.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Jaeho Kim, Seulki Lee

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) for time series data remains a critical challenge in deep learning, with traditional pseudo-labeling strategies failing to capture temporal patterns and channel-wise shifts between domains, producing sub-optimal pseudo labels. As such, we introduce TransPL, a novel approach that addresses these limitations by modeling the joint distribution $P(X,y)$ of the source domain through code transition matrices, where the codes are derived from vector quantization (VQ) of time series patches. Our method constructs class- and channel-wise code transition matrices from the source domain and employs Bayes' rule for target domain adaptation, generating pseudo-labels based on channel-wise weighted class-conditional likelihoods. TransPL offers three key advantages: explicit modeling of temporal transitions and channel-wise shifts between different domains, versatility towards different UDA scenarios (e.g., weakly-supervised UDA), and explainable pseudo-label generation. We validate TransPL's effectiveness through extensive analysis on four time series UDA benchmarks and confirm that it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art pseudo-labeling methods by a strong margin (6.1\% accuracy improvement, 4.9\% F1 improvement), while providing interpretable insights into the domain adaptation process through its learned code transition matrices.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Harry Amad, Nicolás Astorga, Mihaela van der Schaar

Digital twins are models of real-world systems that can simulate their dynamics in response to potential actions. In complex settings, the state and action variables, and available data and knowledge relevant to a system can constantly change, requiring digital twins to continuously update with these changes to remain relevant. Current approaches struggle in this regard, as they require fixed, well-defined modelling environments, and they cannot adapt to novel variables without re-designs, or incorporate new information without re-training. To address this, we frame digital twinning as an in-context learning problem using large language models, enabling seamless updates to the twin at inference time. We develop CALM-DT, a Context-Adaptive Language Model-based Digital Twin that can accurately simulate across diverse state-action spaces using in-context learning alone by utilising fine-tuned encoders for sample retrieval. We empirically demonstrate CALM-DT's competitive performance with existing digital twin approaches, and its unique ability to adapt to changes in its modelling environment without parameter updates.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yu Chen, Nathalia Céspedes, Payam Barnaghi

Time-series forecasting is crucial across various domains, including finance, healthcare, and energy. Transformer models, originally developed for natural language processing, have demonstrated significant potential in addressing challenges associated with time-series data. These models utilize different tokenization strategies, point-wise, patch-wise, and variate-wise, to represent time-series data, each resulting in different scope of attention maps. Despite the emergence of sophisticated architectures, simpler transformers consistently outperform their more complex counterparts in widely used benchmarks. This study examines why point-wise transformers are generally less effective, why intra- and inter-variate attention mechanisms yield similar outcomes, and which architectural components drive the success of simpler models. By analyzing mutual information and evaluating models on synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that intra-variate dependencies are the primary contributors to prediction performance on benchmarks, while inter-variate dependencies have a minor impact. Additionally, techniques such as Z-score normalization and skip connections are also crucial. However, these results are largely influenced by the self-dependent and stationary nature of benchmark datasets. By validating our findings on real-world healthcare data, we provide insights for designing more effective transformers for practical applications.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Jiaqi Yan, Changping Wang, De Ma, Huajin Tang, Qian Zheng, Gang Pan

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are considered promising energy-efficient models due to their dynamic capability to process spatial-temporal spike information. Existing work has demonstrated that SNNs exhibit temporal heterogeneity, which leads to diverse outputs of SNNs at different time steps and has the potential to enhance their performance. Although SNNs obtained by direct training methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, current methods introduce limited temporal heterogeneity through the dynamics of spiking neurons or network structures. They lack the improvement of temporal heterogeneity through the lens of the gradient. In this paper, we first conclude that the diversity of the temporal logit gradients in current methods is limited. This leads to insufficient temporal heterogeneity and results in temporally miscalibrated SNNs with degraded performance. Based on the above analysis, we propose a Temporal Model Calibration (TMC) method, which can be seen as a logit gradient rescaling mechanism across time steps. Experimental results show that our method can improve the temporal logit gradient diversity and generate temporally calibrated SNNs with enhanced performance. In particular, our method achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on ImageNet, DVSCIFAR10, and N-Caltech101. Codes are available at https://github.com/zju-bmi-lab/TMC.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Xiangyu Qu, Guojing Liu, Liang Li

Non-autoregressive Transformers (NATs) have garnered significant attention due to their efficient decoding compared to autoregressive methods. However, existing conditional dependency modeling schemes based on masked language modeling introduce a *training-inference gap* in NATs. For instance, while NATs sample target words during training to enhance input, this condition cannot be met during inference, and simply annealing the sampling rate to zero during training leads to model performance degradation. We demonstrate that this *training-inference gap* prevents NATs from fully realizing their potential. To address this, we propose an adaptive end-to-end quantization alignment training framework, which introduces a semantic consistency space to adaptively align NAT training, eliminating the need for target information and thereby bridging the *training-inference gap*.Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms most existing fully NAT models, delivering performance on par with Autoregressive Transformer (AT) while being 17.0 times more efficient in inference.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Matthew Faw, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou, Abhimanyu Das

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for _in-context fine-tuning_ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation model that can be prompted (at inference time) with multiple time-series examples, in order to forecast a target time-series into the future. Our foundation model is specifically trained to utilize examples from multiple related time-series in its context window (in addition to the history of the target time-series) to help it adapt to the specific distribution of the target domain at inference time. We show that such a foundation model that uses in-context examples at inference time can obtain much better performance on popular forecasting benchmarks compared to supervised deep learning methods, statistical models, and other time series foundation models. Interestingly, our in-context fine-tuning approach even matches the performance of a foundation model that is explicitly fine-tuned on the target domain.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Andrea Testa, Søren Hauberg, Tamim Asfour, Leonel Rozo

Accurately modeling and predicting complex dynamical systems, particularly those involving force exchange and dissipation, is crucial for applications ranging from fluid dynamics to robotics, but presents significant challenges due to the intricate interplay of geometric constraints and energy transfer. This paper introduces Geometric Contact Flows (GFC), a novel framework leveraging Riemannian and Contact geometry as inductive biases to learn such systems. GCF constructs a latent contact Hamiltonian model encoding desirable properties like stability or energy conservation. An ensemble of contactomorphisms then adapts this model to the target dynamics while preserving these properties. This ensemble allows for uncertainty-aware geodesics that attract the system’s behavior toward the data support, enabling robust generalization and adaptation to unseen scenarios. Experiments on learning dynamics for physical systems and for controlling robots on interaction tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Theory · Probabilistic Methods

Lorenzo Lucchese, Mikko S. Pakkanen, Almut E. D. Veraart

The expected signature maps a collection of data streams to a lower dimensional representation, with a remarkable property: the resulting feature tensor can fully characterize the data generating distribution. This "model-free"' embedding has been successfully leveraged to build multiple domain-agnostic machine learning (ML) algorithms for time series and sequential data. The convergence results proved in this paper bridge the gap between the expected signature's empirical discrete-time estimator and its theoretical continuous-time value, allowing for a more complete probabilistic interpretation of expected signature-based ML methods. Moreover, when the data generating process is a martingale, we suggest a simple modification of the expected signature estimator with significantly lower mean squared error and empirically demonstrate how it can be effectively applied to improve predictive performance.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Thibaut Germain, Chrysoula Kosma, Laurent Oudre

Automatically extracting robust representations from large and complex time series data is becoming imperative for several real-world applications. Unfortunately, the potential of common neural network architectures in capturing invariant properties of time series remains relatively underexplored. For instance, convolutional layers often fail to capture underlying patterns in time series inputs that encompass strong deformations, such as trends. Indeed, invariances to some deformations may be critical for solving complex time series tasks, such as classification, while guaranteeing good generalization performance.To address these challenges, we mathematically formulate and technically design efficient and hard-coded *invariant convolutions* for specific group actions applicable to the case of time series.We construct these convolutions by considering specific sets of deformations commonly observed in time series, including *scaling*, *offset shift*, and *trend*.We further combine the proposed invariant convolutions with standard convolutions in single embedding layers, and we showcase the layer capacity to capture complex invariant time series properties in several scenarios.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Abrar Majeedi, Viswanatha Reddy Gajjala, Satya Sai Srinath Namburi GNVV, Nada Elkordi, Yin Li

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Daoyu Wang, Mingyue Cheng, Zhiding Liu, Qi Liu

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose \textbf{TimeDART}, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way.We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach.Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART}.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Vincent Herrmann, Róbert Csordás, Jürgen Schmidhuber

Detecting when a neural sequence model does "interesting" computation is an open problem. The next token prediction loss is a poor indicator: Low loss can stem from trivially predictable sequences that are uninteresting, while high loss may reflect unpredictable but also irrelevant information that can be ignored by the model. We propose a better metric: measuring the model's ability to predict its own future hidden states. We show empirically that this metric–in contrast to the next token prediction loss–correlates with the intuitive interestingness of the task. To measure predictability, we introduce the architecture-agnostic "prediction of hidden states" (PHi) layer that serves as an information bottleneck on the main pathway of the network (e.g., the residual stream in Transformers). We propose a novel learned predictive prior that enables us to measure the novel information gained in each computation step, which serves as our metric. We show empirically that our metric predicts the description length of formal languages learned in-context, the complexity of mathematical reasoning problems, and the correctness of self-generated reasoning chains.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Dong Huang, Pengkun Yang

Correlation analysis is a fundamental step in uncovering meaningful insights from complex datasets. In this paper, we study the problem of detecting correlations between two random graphs following the Gaussian Wigner model with unlabeled vertices. Specifically, the task is formulated as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, the two graphs are independent, while under the alternative hypothesis, they are edge-correlated through a latent vertex permutation, yet maintain the same marginal distributions as under the null. We focus on the scenario where two induced subgraphs, each with a fixed number of vertices, are sampled. We determine the optimal rate for the sample size required for correlation detection, derived through an analysis of the conditional second moment. Additionally, we propose an efficient approximate algorithm that significantly reduces running time.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Yitian Zhang, Liheng Ma, Antonios Valkanas, Boris Oreshkin, Mark Coates

Koopman operator theory provides a framework for nonlinear dynamical system analysis and time-series forecasting by mapping dynamics to a space of real-valued measurement functions, enabling a linear operator representation. Despite the advantage of linearity, the operator is generally infinite-dimensional. Therefore, the objective is to learn measurement functions that yield a tractable finite-dimensional Koopman operator approximation. In this work, we establish a connection between Koopman operator approximation and linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which have recently demonstrated remarkable success in sequence modeling. We show that by considering an extended state consisting of lagged observations, we can establish an equivalence between a structured Koopman operator and linear RNN updates. Building on this connection, we present SKOLR, which integrates a learnable spectral decomposition of the input signal with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) as the measurement functions and implements a structured Koopman operator via a highly parallel linear RNN stack. Numerical experiments on various forecasting benchmarks and dynamical systems show that this streamlined, Koopman-theory-based design delivers exceptional performance. Our code is available at: https://github.com/networkslab/SKOLR.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Shurui Gui, Xiner Li, Shuiwang Ji

We consider learning underlying laws of dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODE). A key challenge is how to discover intrinsic dynamics across multiple environments while circumventing environment-specific mechanisms. Unlike prior work, we tackle more complex environments where changes extend beyond function coefficients to entirely different function forms. For example, we demonstrate the discovery of ideal pendulum's natural motion $\alpha^2 \sin{\theta_t}$ by observing pendulum dynamics in different environments, such as the damped environment $\alpha^2 \sin(\theta_t) - \rho \omega_t$ and powered environment $\alpha^2 \sin(\theta_t) + \rho \frac{\omega_t}{\left|\omega_t\right|}$. Here, we formulate this problem as an *invariant function learning* task and propose a new method, known as **D**isentanglement of **I**nvariant **F**unctions (DIF), that is grounded in causal analysis. We propose a causal graph and design an encoder-decoder hypernetwork that explicitly disentangles invariant functions from environment-specific dynamics. The discovery of invariant functions is guaranteed by our information-based principle that enforces the independence between extracted invariant functions and environments. Quantitative comparisons with meta-learning and invariant learning baselines on three ODE systems demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method. Furthermore, symbolic regression explanation results highlight the ability of our framework to uncover intrinsic laws.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Yu-Yang Qian, Yuan-Ze Xu, Zhen-Yu Zhang, Peng Zhao, Zhi-Hua Zhou

Many real-world applications collect data in a streaming environment, where learning tasks are encountered sequentially. This necessitates *continual learning* (CL) to update models online, enabling adaptation to new tasks while preserving past knowledge to prevent catastrophic forgetting. Nowadays, with the flourish of *large pre-trained models* (LPMs), *efficiency* has become increasingly critical for CL, due to their substantial computational demands and growing parameter sizes. In this paper, we introduce TreeLoRA (K-D Tree of Low-Rank Adapters), a novel approach that constructs *layer-wise* adapters by leveraging hierarchical gradient similarity to enable efficient CL, particularly for LPMs. To reduce the computational burden of task similarity estimation, we employ *bandit* techniques to develop an algorithm based on lower confidence bounds to efficiently explore the task structure. Furthermore, we use sparse gradient updates to facilitate parameter optimization, making the approach better suited for LPMs. Theoretical analysis is provided to justify the rationale behind our approach, and experiments on both *vision transformers* (ViTs) and *large language models* (LLMs) demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach across various domains, including vision and natural language processing tasks.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Srinath Dama, Kevin L Course, Prasanth B Nair

We present an operator-theoretic framework for temporal and spatio-temporal forecasting based on learning a *continuous time-shift operator*. Our operator learning paradigm offers a continuous relaxation of the discrete lag factor used in traditional autoregressive models, enabling the history of a system up to a given time to be mapped to its future values. We parametrize the time-shift operator using Khatri-Rao neural operators (KRNOs), a novel architecture based on non-stationary integral transforms with nearly linear computational scaling. Our framework naturally handles irregularly sampled observations and enables forecasting at super-resolution in both space and time. Extensive numerical studies across diverse temporal and spatio-temporal benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art or competitive performance with leading methods.

General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Samidha Verma, Arushi Goyal, Ananya Mathur, Ankit Anand, Sayan Ranu

Graph Edit Distance (GED) is a widely used metric for measuring similarity between two graphs. Computing the optimal GED is NP-hard, leading to the development of various neural and non-neural heuristics. While neural methods have achieved improved approximation quality compared to non-neural approaches, they face significant challenges: (1) They require large amounts of ground truth data, which is itself NP-hard to compute. (2) They operate as black boxes, offering limited interpretability. (3) They lack cross-domain generalization, necessitating expensive retraining for each new dataset. We address these limitations with GRAIL, introducing a paradigm shift in this domain. Instead of training a neural model to predict GED, GRAIL employs a novel combination of large language models (LLMs) and automated prompt tuning to generate a *program* that is used to compute GED. This shift from predicting GED to generating programs imparts various advantages, including end-to-end interpretability and an autonomous self-evolutionary learning mechanism without ground-truth supervision. Extensive experiments on seven datasets confirm that GRAIL not only surpasses state-of-the-art GED approximation methods in prediction quality but also achieves robust cross-domain generalization across diverse graph distributions.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Mehmet Yiğit Balık, Maksim Sinelnikov, Priscilla Ong, Harri Lähdesmäki

High-dimensional time-series datasets are common in domains such as healthcare and economics. Variational autoencoder (VAE) models, where latent variables are modeled with a Gaussian process (GP) prior, have become a prominent model class to analyze such correlated datasets. However, their applications are challenged by the inherent cubic time complexity that requires specific GP approximation techniques, as well as the general challenge of modeling both shared and individual-specific correlations across time. Though inducing points enhance GP prior VAE scalability, optimizing them remains challenging, especially since discrete covariates resist gradient‑based methods. In this work, we propose a scalable basis function approximation technique for GP prior VAEs that mitigates these challenges and results in linear time complexity, with a global parametrization that eliminates the need for amortized variational inference and the associated amortization gap, making it well-suited for conditional generation tasks where accuracy and efficiency are crucial. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach not only improves scalability and interpretability but also drastically enhances predictive performance.