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Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Jae-Hong Lee, Joon Hyuk Chang

In the rapidly evolving field of online test-time adaptation (OTTA), effectively managing distribution shifts is a pivotal concern. State-of-the-art OTTA methodologies often face limitations such as an inadequate target domain information integration, leading to significant issues like catastrophic forgetting and a lack of adaptability in dynamically changing environments. In this paper, we introduce a stationary latent weight inference (SLWI) framework, a novel approach to overcome these challenges. The proposed SLWI uniquely incorporates Bayesian filtering to continually track and update the target model weights along with the source model weight in online settings, thereby ensuring that the adapted model remains responsive to ongoing changes in the target domain. The proposed framework has the peculiar property to identify and backtrack nonlinear weights that exhibit local non-stationarity, thereby mitigating error propagation, a common pitfall of previous approaches. By integrating and refining information from both source and target domains, SLWI presents a robust solution to the persistent issue of domain adaptation in OTTA, significantly improving existing methodologies. The efficacy of SLWI is demonstrated through various experimental setups, showcasing its superior performance in diverse distribution shift scenarios.

Theory · Learning Theory

Shervin Khalafi, Saurabh Sihag, Alejandro Ribeiro

Neural tangent kernels (NTKs) provide a theoretical regime to analyze the learning and generalization behavior of over-parametrized neural networks. For a supervised learning task, the association between the eigenvectors of the NTK and given data (a concept referred to as alignment in this paper) can govern the rate of convergence of gradient descent, as well as generalization to unseen data. Building upon this concept and leveraging the structure of NTKs for graph neural networks (GNNs), we theoretically investigate NTKs and alignment, where our analysis reveals that optimizing the alignment translates to optimizing the graph representation or the graph shift operator (GSO) in a GNN. Our results further establish theoretical guarantees on the optimality of the alignment for a two-layer GNN and these guarantees are characterized by the graph shift operator being a function of the cross-covariance between the input and the output data. The theoretical insights drawn from the analysis of NTKs are validated by our experiments focused on a multi-variate time series prediction task for a publicly available dataset. Specifically, they demonstrate that GNN-based learning models that operate on the cross-covariance matrix indeed outperform those that operate on the covariance matrix estimated from only the input data.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ming Jin, Yi-Fan Zhang, Wei Chen, Kexin Zhang, Yuxuan Liang, Bin Yang, Jindong Wang, Shirui Pan, Qingsong Wen

Time series analysis is essential for comprehending the complexities inherent in various real-world systems and applications. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently made significant strides, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) equipped with time series analysis capabilities remains in its nascent phase. Most existing time series models heavily rely on domain knowledge and extensive model tuning, predominantly focusing on prediction tasks. In this paper, we argue that current LLMs have the potential to revolutionize time series analysis, thereby promoting efficient decision-making and advancing towards a more universal form of time series analytical intelligence. Such advancement could unlock a wide range of possibilities, including time series modality switching and question answering. We encourage researchers and practitioners to recognize the potential of LLMs in advancing time series analysis and emphasize the need for trust in these related efforts. Furthermore, we detail the seamless integration of time series analysis with existing LLM technologies and outline promising avenues for future research.

Applications · Time Series

Romain Ilbert, Ambroise Odonnat, Vasilii Feofanov, Aladin Virmaux, Giuseppe Paolo, Themis Palpanas, Ievgen Redko

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this phenomenon, we start by studying a toy linear forecasting problem for which we show that transformers are incapable of converging to their true solution despite their high expressive power. We further identify the attention of transformers as being responsible for this low generalization capacity. Building upon this insight, we propose a shallow lightweight transformer model that successfully escapes bad local minima when optimized with sharpness-aware optimization. We empirically demonstrate that this result extends to all commonly used real-world multivariate time series datasets. In particular, SAMformer surpasses current state-of-the-art methods and is on par with the biggest foundation model MOIRAI while having significantly fewer parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/romilbert/samformer.

Applications · Time Series

Yancheng Huang, Kai Yang, Zelin Zhu, Leian Chen

The primary goal of online change detection (OCD) is to promptly identify changes in the data stream. OCD problem find a wide variety of applications in diverse areas, e.g., security detection in smart grids and intrusion detection in communication networks. Prior research usually assumes precise knowledge of the system parameters. Nevertheless, this presumption often proves unattainable in practical scenarios due to factors such as estimation errors, system updates, etc. This paper aims to take the first attempt to develop a triadic-OCD framework with certifiable robustness, provable optimality, and guaranteed convergence. In addition, the proposed triadic-OCD algorithm can be realized in a fully asynchronous distributed manner, easing the necessity of transmitting the data to a single server. This asynchronous mechanism could also mitigate the straggler issue that faced by traditional synchronous algorithm. Moreover, the non-asymptotic convergence property of Triadic-OCD is theoretically analyzed, and its iteration complexity to achieve an $\epsilon$-optimal point is derived. Extensive experiments have been conducted to elucidate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Qiang Huang, Chuizheng Meng, Defu Cao, Biwei Huang, Yi Chang, Yan Liu

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at reducing covariate disparities between different treatment groups serves as a universal solution. However, when it comes to the time series data, the effectiveness of balancing strategies remains an open question, with a thorough analysis of the robustness and applicability of balancing strategies still lacking. This paper revisits counterfactual estimation in the temporal setting and provides a brief overview of recent advancements in balancing strategies. More importantly, we conduct a critical empirical examination for the effectiveness of the balancing strategies within the realm of temporal counterfactual estimation in various settings on multiple datasets. Our findings could be of significant interest to researchers and practitioners and call for a reexamination of the balancing strategy in time series settings.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ignacio Hounie, Javier Porras-Valenzuela, Alejandro Ribeiro

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising performance averaged over the predicted window. We observe that this can lead to disparate distributions of errors across forecasting steps, especially for recent transformer architectures trained on popular forecasting benchmarks. That is, optimising performance on average can lead to undesirably large errors at specific time-steps. In this work, we present a Constrained Learning approach for long-term time series forecasting that aims to find the best model in terms of average performance that respects a user-defined upper bound on the loss at each time-step. We call our approach loss shaping constraints because it imposes constraints on the loss at each time step, and leverage recent duality results to show that despite its non-convexity, the resulting problem has a bounded duality gap. We propose a practical primal-dual algorithm to tackle it, and demonstrate that the proposed approach exhibits competitive average performance in time series forecasting benchmarks, while shaping the distribution of errors across the predicted window.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Lu Han, Han-Jia Ye, De-Chuan Zhan

In real-world applications, time series data frequently exhibit non-stationarity, with statistics changing over time. This variability undermines the forecasting accuracy of deep learning models that are trained on historical data but deployed for future prediction. A common approach to mitigate this issue involves normalizing the data to counteract statistical drift, followed by denormalization on the prediction. However, existing methods often employ heuristic normalization techniques that do not fully account for the unique characteristics of the series. Our paper addresses the critical question in this context: which statistics should be removed and restored? We argue that the statistics selected for normalization should exhibit both local invariance and global variability to ensure their correctness and helpfulness. To this end, we propose the Selective and Interpretable Normalization methodology, dubbed SIN. This approach maximizes the covariance between a given look-back window and its subsequent future values, thereby identifying key statistics for normalization and simultaneously learning the corresponding normalization transformations. The interpretable framework can be used to explain the success and limitations of some popular normalization methods. By integrating SIN, we demonstrate improvements in the performance of several prevalent forecasting models, thereby validating the utility of our approach.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Yifan Gong, Zheng Zhan, Qing Jin, Yanyu Li, Yerlan Idelbayev, Xian Liu, Andrey Zharkov, Kfir Aberman, Sergey Tulyakov, Yanzhi Wang 等

One highly promising direction for enabling flexible real-time on-device image editing is utilizing data distillation by leveraging large-scale text-to-image diffusion models to generate paired datasets used for training generative adversarial networks (GANs). This approach notably alleviates the stringent requirements typically imposed by high-end commercial GPUs for performing image editing with diffusion models. However, unlike text-to-image diffusion models, each distilled GAN is specialized for a specific image editing task, necessitating costly training efforts to obtain models for various concepts. In this work, we introduce and address a novel research direction: can the process of distilling GANs from diffusion models be made significantly more efficient? To achieve this goal, we propose a series of innovative techniques. First, we construct a base GAN model with generalized features, adaptable to different concepts through fine-tuning, eliminating the need for training from scratch. Second, we identify crucial layers within the base GAN model and employ Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with a simple yet effective rank search process, rather than fine-tuning the entire base model. Third, we investigate the minimal amount of data necessary for fine-tuning, further reducing the overall training time. Extensive experiments show that we can efficiently empower GANs with the ability to perform real-time high-quality image editing on mobile devices with remarkably reduced training and storage costs for each concept.

Applications · Health

Thomas Ferté, Dutartre Dan, Boris Hejblum, Romain Griffier, Vianney Jouhet, Rodolphe Thiébaut, Pierrick Legrand, Xavier Hinaut

In this work, we aimed at forecasting the number of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalized patients at 14 days to help anticipate the bed requirements of a large scale hospital using public data and electronic health records data. Previous attempts led to mitigated performance in this high-dimension setting; we introduce a novel approach to time series forecasting by providing an alternative to conventional methods to deal with high number of potential features of interest (409 predictors). We integrate Reservoir Computing (RC) with feature selection using a genetic algorithm (GA) to gather optimal non-linear combinations of inputs to improve prediction in sample-efficient context. We illustrate that the RC-GA combination exhibits excellent performance in forecasting SARS-CoV-2 hospitalizations. This approach outperformed the use of RC alone and other conventional methods: LSTM, Transformers, Elastic-Net, XGBoost. Notably, this work marks the pioneering use of RC (along with GA) in the realm of short and high-dimensional time series, positioning it as a competitive and innovative approach in comparison to standard methods.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Deividas Eringis, john leth, Zheng-Hua Tan, Rafal Wisniewski, Mihaly Petreczky

In this paper we derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for a class of stochastic dynamical systems with inputs, namely, for linear time-invariant stochastic state-space models (stochastic LTI systems for short). This class of systems is widely used in control engineering and econometrics, in particular, they represent a special case of recurrent neural networks. In this paper we 1) formalize the learning problem for stochastic LTI systems with inputs, 2) derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for such systems, and 3) discuss various consequences of this error bound.

Applications · Time Series

Emadeldeen Eldele, Mohamed Ragab, Zhenghua Chen, Min Wu, Xiaoli Li

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel **T**ime **S**eries **L**ightweight **A**daptive **Net**work (**TSLANet**), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet.

Applications · Time Series

Jufang Duan, Wei Zheng, Yangzhou Du, Wenfa Wu, Haipeng Jiang, Hongsheng Qi

Learning a decent representation from unlabeled time series is a challenging task, especially when the time series data is derived from diverse channels at different sampling rates. Our motivation stems from the financial domain, where sparsely labeled covariates are commonly collected at different frequencies, *e.g.*, daily stock market index, monthly unemployment rate and quarterly net revenue of a certain listed corporation. This paper presents **M**ulti-**F**requency **C**ontrastive **L**earning **R**epresentation (MF-CLR), aimed at learning a good representation of multi-frequency time series in a self-supervised paradigm by leveraging the ability of contrastive learning. MF-CLR introduces a hierarchical mechanism that spans across different frequencies along the feature dimension. Within each contrastive block, two groups of subseries with adjacent frequencies are embedded based on our proposed cross-frequency consistency. To validate the effectiveness of MF-CLR, we conduct extensive experiments on five downstream tasks, including long-term and short-term forecasting, classification, anomaly detection and imputation. Experimental evidence shows that MF-CLR delivers a leading performance in all the downstream tasks and keeps consistent performance across different target dataset scales in the transfer learning scenario.

Deep Learning

Jiaxiang Dong, Haixu Wu, Yuxuan Wang, Yun-Zhong Qiu, Li Zhang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long

Time series pre-training has recently garnered wide attention for its potential to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various downstream tasks. Prior methods are mainly based on pre-training techniques well-acknowledged in vision or language, such as masked modeling and contrastive learning. However, randomly masking time series or calculating series-wise similarity will distort or neglect inherent temporal correlations crucial in time series data. To emphasize temporal correlation modeling, this paper proposes TimeSiam as a simple but effective self-supervised pre-training framework for Time series based on Siamese networks. Concretely, TimeSiam pre-trains Siamese encoders to capture intrinsic temporal correlations between randomly sampled past and current subseries. With a simple data augmentation method (e.g. masking), TimeSiam can benefit from diverse augmented subseries and learn internal time-dependent representations through a past-to-current reconstruction. Moreover, learnable lineage embeddings are also introduced to distinguish temporal distance between sampled series and further foster the learning of diverse temporal correlations. TimeSiam consistently outperforms extensive advanced pre-training baselines, demonstrating superior forecasting and classification capabilities across 13 standard benchmarks in both intra- and cross-domain scenarios.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Jiayi Deng, Xiaodong Yang, Jun Yu, Jun Liu, Zhaiming Shen, Danyang Huang, Huimin Cheng

Conventional community detection methods often categorize all nodes into clusters. However, the presumed community structure of interest may only be valid for a subset of nodes (named as `tight nodes'), while the rest of the network may consist of noninformative ``scattered nodes''. For example, a protein-protein network often contains proteins that do not belong to specific biological functional modules but are involved in more general processes, or act as bridges between different functional modules. Forcing each of these proteins into a single cluster introduces unwanted biases and obscures the underlying biological implication. To address this issue, we propose a tight community detection (TCD) method to identify tight communities excluding scattered nodes. The algorithm enjoys a strong theoretical guarantee of tight node identification accuracy and is scalable for large networks. The superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by various synthetic and real experiments.

Deep Learning · Self-Supervised Learning

Berken Utku Demirel, Christian Holz

Detection of periodic patterns of interest within noisy time series data plays a critical role in various tasks, spanning from health monitoring to behavior analysis. Existing learning techniques often rely on labels or clean versions of signals for detecting the periodicity, and those employing self-supervised methods are required to apply proper augmentations, which is already challenging for time series and can result in collapse—all representations collapse to a single point due to strong augmentation. In this work, we propose a novel method to detect the periodicity in time series without the need for any labels or requiring tailored positive or negative data generation mechanisms. We mitigate the collapse issue by ensuring the learned representations retain information from the original samples without imposing any variance constraints on the batch. Our experiments in three time-series tasks against state-of-the-art learning methods show that the proposed approach consistently outperforms prior works, achieving performance improvements of more than 45--50%, showing its effectiveness.

Applications · Time Series

Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a decoder style attention model with input patching, using a large time-series corpus comprising both real-world and synthetic datasets. Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets suggests that the model can yield accurate zero-shot forecasts across different domains, forecasting horizons and temporal granularities.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Ganqu Cui, Lifan Yuan, Ning Ding, Guanming Yao, Bingxiang He, Wei Zhu, Yuan Ni, Guotong Xie, Ruobing Xie, Yankai Lin 等

Learning from human feedback has become a pivot technique in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. However, acquiring vast and premium human feedback is bottlenecked by time, labor, and human capability, resulting in small sizes or limited topics of current datasets. This further hinders feedback learning as well as alignment research within the open-source community. To address this issue, we explore how to go beyond human feedback and collect high-quality AI feedback automatically for a scalable alternative. Specifically, we identify scale and diversity as the key factors for feedback data to take effect. Accordingly, we first broaden instructions and responses in both amount and breadth to encompass a wider range of user-assistant interactions. Then, we meticulously apply a series of techniques to mitigate annotation biases for more reliable AI feedback. We finally present UltraFeedback, a large-scale, high-quality, and diversified AI feedback dataset, which contains over 1 million GPT-4 feedback for 250k user-assistant conversations from various aspects. Built upon UltraFeedback, we align a LLaMA-based model by best-of-$n$ sampling and reinforcement learning, demonstrating its exceptional performance on chat benchmarks. Our work validates the effectiveness of scaled AI feedback data in constructing strong open-source chat language models, serving as a solid foundation for future feedback learning research.

Yifan Chen, Mark Goldstein, Mengjian Hua, Michael Albergo, Nicholas Boffi, Eric Vanden-Eijnden

We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of the future system state given its current state. To this end, we leverage the framework of stochastic interpolants, which facilitates the construction of a generative model between an arbitrary base distribution and the target. We design a fictitious, non-physical stochastic dynamics that takes as initial condition the current system state and produces as output a sample from the target conditional distribution in finite time and without bias. This process therefore maps a point mass centered at the current state onto a probabilistic ensemble of forecasts. We prove that the drift coefficient entering the stochastic differential equation (SDE) achieving this task is non-singular, and that it can be learned efficiently by square loss regression over the time-series data. We show that the drift and the diffusion coefficients of this SDE can be adjusted after training, and that a specific choice that minimizes the impact of the estimation error gives a Föllmer process. We highlight the utility of our approach on several complex, high-dimensional forecasting problems, including stochastically forced Navier-Stokes and video prediction on the KTH and CLEVRER datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/interpolants/forecasting.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Serina Chang, Frederic Koehler, Zhaonan Qu, Jure Leskovec, Johan Ugander

A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i.e., row and column sums). Prior approaches to this problem have repurposed the classic iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure, also known as Sinkhorn’s algorithm, with promising empirical results. However, the statistical foundation for using IPF has not been well understood: under what settings does IPF provide principled estimation of a dynamic network from its marginals, and how well does it estimate the network? In this work, we establish such a setting, by identifying a generative network model whose maximum likelihood estimates are recovered by IPF. Our model both reveals implicit assumptions on the use of IPF in such settings and enables new analyses, such as structure-dependent error bounds on IPF’s parameter estimates. When IPF fails to converge on sparse network data, we introduce a principled algorithm that guarantees IPF converges under minimal changes to the network structure. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic and real-world data, which demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.