论文检索

Applications · Time Series

Yogesh Verma, Markus Heinonen, Vikas Garg

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts. However, they often act as data-driven black-box models that neglect the underlying physics and lack uncertainty quantification. We address these limitations with ClimODE, a spatiotemporal continuous-time process that implements a key principle of advection from statistical mechanics, namely, weather changes due to a spatial movement of quantities over time. ClimODE models precise weather evolution with value-conserving dynamics, learning global weather transport as a neural flow, which also enables estimating the uncertainty in predictions. Our approach outperforms existing data-driven methods in global and regional forecasting with an order of magnitude smaller parameterization, establishing a new state of the art.

Applications · Time Series

Xinyu Yuan, Yan Qiao

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose Diffusion-TS, a novel diffusion-based framework that generates multivariate time series samples of high quality by using an encoder-decoder transformer with disentangled temporal representations, in which the decomposition technique guides Diffusion-TS to capture the semantic meaning of time series while transformers mine detailed sequential information from the noisy model input. Different from existing diffusion-based approaches, we train the model to directly reconstruct the sample instead of the noise in each diffusion step, combining a Fourier-based loss term. Diffusion-TS is expected to generate time series satisfying both interpretablity and realness. In addition, it is shown that the proposed Diffusion-TS can be easily extended to conditional generation tasks, such as forecasting and imputation, without any model changes. This also motivates us to further explore the performance of Diffusion-TS under irregular settings. Finally, through qualitative and quantitative experiments, results show that Diffusion-TS achieves the state-of-the-art results on various realistic analyses of time series.

Linus Bleistein, Agathe Guilloux

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it remains unclear in particular how the roughness of the sampling affects their predictions. By merging the rich theory of controlled differential equations (CDE) and Lipschitz-based measures of the complexity of deep neural nets, we take a first step towards the theoretical understanding of NCDE. Our first result is a sampling-dependant generalization bound for this class of predictors. In a second time, we leverage the continuity of the flow of CDEs to provide a detailed analysis of both the sampling-induced bias and the approximation bias. Regarding this last result, we show how classical approximation results on neural nets may transfer to NCDE. Our theoretical results are validated through a series of experiments.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Causality

Sorawit (James) Saengkyongam, Elan Rosenfeld, Pradeep K Ravikumar, Niklas Pfister, Jonas Peters

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome variable $Y$, observed features $X$, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features $Z$, and exogenous action variables $A$, which influence $Z$. The objective of intervention extrapolation is then to predict how interventions on $A$ that lie outside the training support of $A$ affect $Y$. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of $A$ on $Z$ is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As $Z$ is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call $\texttt{Rep4Ex}$: we aim to map the observed features $X$ into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in $A$. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in $Z$-space, which, we prove, is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of $A$ on $Z$. Based on this insight, we propose a flexible method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through a series of synthetic experiments and show that our approach can indeed succeed in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Deep Learning · Self-Supervised Learning

Archibald Fraikin, Adrien Bennetot, Stephanie Allassonniere

Multivariate time series present challenges to standard machine learning techniques, as they are often unlabeled, high dimensional, noisy, and contain missing data. To address this, we propose T-Rep, a self-supervised method to learn time series representations at a timestep granularity. T-Rep learns vector embeddings of time alongside its feature extractor, to extract temporal features such as trend, periodicity, or distribution shifts from the signal. These time-embeddings are leveraged in pretext tasks, to incorporate smooth and fine-grained temporal dependencies in the representations, as well as reinforce robustness to missing data. We evaluate T-Rep on downstream classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection tasks. It is compared to existing self-supervised algorithms for time series, which it outperforms in all three tasks. We test T-Rep in missing data regimes, where it proves more resilient than its counterparts. Finally, we provide latent space visualisation experiments, highlighting the interpretability of the learned representations.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Maxwell Xu, Alexander Moreno, Hui Wei, Benjamin M Marlin, James Rehg

The success of self-supervised contrastive learning hinges on identifying positive data pairs, such that when they are pushed together in embedding space, the space encodes useful information for subsequent downstream tasks. Constructing positive pairs is non-trivial as the pairing must be similar enough to reflect a shared semantic meaning, but different enough to capture within-class variation. Classical approaches in vision use augmentations to exploit well-established invariances to construct positive pairs, but invariances in the time-series domain are much less obvious. In our work, we propose a novel method of using a learned measure for identifying positive pairs. Our Retrieval-Based Reconstruction (REBAR) measure measures the similarity between two sequences as the reconstruction error that results from reconstructing one sequence with retrieved information from the other. Then, if the two sequences have high REBAR similarity, we label them as a positive pair. Through validation experiments, we show that the REBAR error is a predictor of mutual class membership. Once integrated into a contrastive learning framework, our REBAR method learns an embedding that achieves state-of-the-art performance on downstream tasks across various modalities.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Kethmi Hirushini Hettige, Jiahao Ji, Shili Xiang, Cheng Long, Gao Cong, Jingyuan Wang

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10\%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning. The code is available at: https://github.com/kethmih/AirPhyNet

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Xiang Lan, Hanshu Yan, Shenda Hong, Mengling Feng

*Not all positive pairs are beneficial to time series contrastive learning*. In this paper, we study two types of bad positive pairs that can impair the quality of time series representation learned through contrastive learning: the noisy positive pair and the faulty positive pair. We observe that, with the presence of noisy positive pairs, the model tends to simply learn the pattern of noise (Noisy Alignment). Meanwhile, when faulty positive pairs arise, the model wastes considerable amount of effort aligning non-representative patterns (Faulty Alignment). To address this problem, we propose a Dynamic Bad Pair Mining (DBPM) algorithm, which reliably identifies and suppresses bad positive pairs in time series contrastive learning. Specifically, DBPM utilizes a memory module to dynamically track the training behavior of each positive pair along training process. This allows us to identify potential bad positive pairs at each epoch based on their historical training behaviors. The identified bad pairs are subsequently down-weighted through a transformation module, thereby mitigating their negative impact on the representation learning process. DBPM is a simple algorithm designed as a lightweight **plug-in** without learnable parameters to enhance the performance of existing state-of-the-art methods. Through extensive experiments conducted on four large-scale, real-world time series datasets, we demonstrate DBPM's efficacy in mitigating the adverse effects of bad positive pairs.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Khalid OUBLAL, Said Ladjal, David Benhaiem, Emmanuel LE BORGNE, François Roueff

Learning disentangled representations for time series is a promising path to facilitate reliable generalization to in- and out-of distribution (OOD), offering benefits like feature derivation and improved interpretability and fairness, thereby enhancing downstream tasks. We focus on disentangled representation learning for home appliance electricity usage, enabling users to understand and optimize their consumption for a reduced carbon footprint. Our approach frames the problem as disentangling each attribute's role in total consumption. Unlike existing methods assuming attribute independence which leads to non-identiability, we acknowledge real-world time series attribute correlations, learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single autoencoder. To address this, we propose a Disentanglement under Independence-Of-Support via Contrastive Learning (DIOSC), facilitating representation generalization across diverse correlated scenarios. Our method utilizes innovative \textit{l}-variational inference layers with self-attention, effectively addressing temporal dependencies across bottom-up and top-down networks. We find that DIOSC can enhance the task of representation of time series electricity consumption. We introduce TDS (Time Disentangling Score) to gauge disentanglement quality. TDS reliably reflects disentanglement performance, making it a valuable metric for evaluating time series representations disentanglement. Code available at https://institut-polytechnique-de-paris.github.io/time-disentanglement-lib.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling

Hyunwook Lee, Sungahn Ko

Accurate traffic forecasting is challenging due to the complex dependency on road networks, various types of roads, and the abrupt speed change due to the events. Recent works mainly focus on dynamic spatial modeling with adaptive graph embedding or graph attention having less consideration for temporal characteristics and in-situ modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning model named TESTAM, which individually models recurring and non-recurring traffic patterns by a mixture-of-experts model with three experts on temporal modeling, spatio-temporal modeling with static graph, and dynamic spatio-temporal dependency modeling with dynamic graph. By introducing different experts and properly routing them, TESTAM could better model various circumstances, including spatially isolated nodes, highly related nodes, and recurring and non-recurring events. For the proper routing, we reformulate a gating problem into a classification problem with pseudo labels. Experimental results on three public traffic network datasets, METR-LA, PEMS-BAY, and EXPY-TKY, demonstrate that TESTAM achieves a better indication and modeling of recurring and non-recurring traffic.

Eric Qu, Yansen Wang, Xufang Luo, Wenqiang He, Kan Ren, Dongsheng Li

Shapelets and CNN are two typical approaches to model time series. Shapelets aim at finding a set of sub-sequences that extract feature-based interpretable shapes, but may suffer from accuracy and efficiency issues. CNN performs well by encoding sequences with a series of hidden representations, but lacks interpretability. In this paper, we demonstrate that shapelets are essentially equivalent to a specific type of CNN kernel with a squared norm and pooling. Based on this finding, we propose ShapeConv, an interpretable CNN layer with its kernel serving as shapelets to conduct time-series modeling tasks in both supervised and unsupervised settings. By incorporating shaping regularization, we enforce the similarity for maximum interpretability. We also find human knowledge can be easily injected to ShapeConv by adjusting its initialization and model performance is boosted with it. Experiments show that ShapeConv can achieve state-of-the-art performance on time-series benchmarks without sacrificing interpretability and controllability.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ido Amos, Jonathan Berant, Ankit Gupta

Modeling long-range dependencies across sequences is a longstanding goal in machine learning and has led to architectures, such as state space models, that dramatically outperform Transformers on long sequences. However, these impressive empirical gains have been by and large demonstrated on benchmarks (e.g. Long Range Arena), where models are randomly initialized and trained to predict a target label from an input sequence. In this work, we show that random initialization leads to gross overestimation of the differences between architectures and that pretraining with standard denoising objectives, *using only the downstream task data*, leads to dramatic gains across multiple architectures and to very small gaps between Transformers and state space models (SSMs). In stark contrast to prior works, we find vanilla Transformers to match the performance of S4 on Long Range Arena when properly pretrained, and we improve the best reported results of SSMs on the PathX-256 task by 20 absolute points. Subsequently, we analyze the utility of previously-proposed structured parameterizations for SSMs and show they become mostly redundant in the presence of data-driven initialization obtained through pretraining. Our work shows that, when evaluating different architectures on supervised tasks, incorporation of data-driven priors via pretraining is essential for reliable performance estimation, and can be done efficiently.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Konstantin Hess, Valentyn Melnychuk, Dennis Frauen, Stefan Feuerriegel

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

Applications · Time Series

Defu Cao, Furong Jia, Sercan Arik, Tomas Pfister, Yixiang Zheng, Wen Ye, Yan Liu

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the design of prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in different types of time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on zero shot setting for a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets but also in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Applications · Time Series

Hang Yu, Cong Liao, Ruolan Liu, Jianguo Li, Hu Yun, Xinzhe Wang

Periodic patterns are a fundamental characteristic of time series in natural world, with significant implications for a range of disciplines, from economics to cloud systems. However, the current literature on periodicity detection faces two key challenges: limited robustness in real-world scenarios and a lack of memory to leverage previously observed time series to accelerate and improve inference on new data. To overcome these obstacles, this paper presents AmortizedPeriod, an innovative approach to periodicity identification based on amortized variational inference that integrates Bayesian statistics and deep learning. Through the Bayesian generative process, our method flexibly captures the dependencies of the periods, trends, noise, and outliers in time series, while also considering missing data and irregular periods in a robust manner. In addition, it utilizes the evidence lower bound of the log-likelihood of the observed time series as the loss function to train a deep attention inference network, facilitating knowledge transfer from the seen time series (and their labels) to unseen ones. Experimental results show that AmortizedPeriod surpasses the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin of 28.5% on average in terms of micro $F_1$-score, with at least 55% less inference time.

Applications · Genetics, Cell Biology, etc

Noa Moriel, Matt Ricci, Mor Nitzan

Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing methods predict oncoming catastrophes in individual systems but are primarily time-series-based and struggle both to categorize qualitative dynamical regimes across diverse systems and to generalize to real data. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven, physically-informed deep-learning framework for classifying dynamical regimes and characterizing bifurcation boundaries based on the extraction of topologically invariant features. We focus on the paradigmatic case of the supercritical Hopf bifurcation, which is used to model periodic dynamics across a wide range of applications. Our convolutional attention method is trained with data augmentations that encourage the learning of topological invariants which can be used to detect bifurcation boundaries in unseen systems and to design models of biological systems like oscillatory gene regulatory networks. We further demonstrate our method's use in analyzing real data by recovering distinct proliferation and differentiation dynamics along pancreatic endocrinogenesis trajectory in gene expression space based on single-cell data. Our method provides valuable insights into the qualitative, long-term behavior of a wide range of dynamical systems, and can detect bifurcations or catastrophic transitions in large-scale physical and biological systems.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Stéphane d'Ascoli, Sören Becker, Philippe Schwaller, Alexander Mathis, Niki Kilbertus

We introduce ODEFormer, the first transformer able to infer multidimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems in symbolic form from the observation of a single solution trajectory. We perform extensive evaluations on two datasets: (i) the existing ‘Strogatz’ dataset featuring two-dimensional systems; (ii) ODEBench, a collection of one- to four-dimensional systems that we carefully curated from the literature to provide a more holistic benchmark. ODEFormer consistently outperforms existing methods while displaying substantially improved robustness to noisy and irregularly sampled observations, as well as faster inference. We release our code, model and benchmark at https://github.com/sdascoli/odeformer.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Shiyu Wang, Haixu Wu, Xiaoming Shi, Tengge Hu, Huakun Luo, Lintao Ma, James Zhang, JUN ZHOU

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, where time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. Specifically, the microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales, respectively, and thereby complex variations are inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, our proposed TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series

Ming Jin, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma, Zhixuan Chu, James Zhang, Xiaoming Shi, Pin-Yu Chen, Yuxuan Liang, Yuan-Fang Li, Shirui Pan 等

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that \method is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/KimMeen/Time-LLM.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Causality

Mehdi Fatemi, Sindhu Chatralinganadoddi Mariyappa Gowda

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.