论文检索

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Kun Yi, Qi Zhang, Wei Fan, Shoujin Wang, Pengyang Wang, Hui He, Ning An, Defu Lian, Longbing Cao, Zhendong Niu

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and superior performance. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/aikunyi/FreTS.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Tanya Marwah, Ashwini Pokle, J. Zico Kolter, Zachary Lipton, Jianfeng Lu, Andrej Risteski

Data-driven machine learning approaches are being increasingly used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). They have shown particularly striking successes when training an operator, which takes as input a PDE in some family, and outputs its solution. However, the architectural design space, especially given structural knowledge of the PDE family of interest, is still poorly understood. We seek to remedy this gap by studying the benefits of weight-tied neural network architectures for steady-state PDEs. To achieve this, we first demonstrate that the solution of most steady-state PDEs can be expressed as a fixed point of a non-linear operator. Motivated by this observation, we propose FNO-DEQ, a deep equilibrium variant of the FNO architecture that directly solves for the solution of a steady-state PDE as the infinite-depth fixed point of an implicit operator layer using a black-box root solver and differentiates analytically through this fixed point resulting in $\mathcal{O}(1)$ training memory. Our experiments indicate that FNO-DEQ-based architectures outperform FNO-based baselines with $4\times$ the number of parameters in predicting the solution to steady-state PDEs such as Darcy Flow and steady-state incompressible Navier-Stokes. Finally, we show FNO-DEQ is more robust when trained with datasets with more noisy observations than the FNO-based baselines, demonstrating the benefits of using appropriate inductive biases in architectural design for different neural network based PDE solvers. Further, we show a universal approximation result that demonstrates that FNO-DEQ can approximate the solution to any steady-state PDE that can be written as a fixed point equation.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Siqiao Xue, Yan Wang, Zhixuan Chu, Xiaoming Shi, Caigao JIANG, Hongyan Hao, Gangwei Jiang, Xiaoyun Feng, James Zhang, Jun Zhou

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real world applications, the event data typically comes in a streaming manner, where the distribution of the patterns may shift over time. Under the privacy and memory constraints commonly seen in real scenarios, how to continuously monitor a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-investigated problem. In this work, we approach this problem by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which aims to enable a model to continuously learn a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting. While CL for event sequence is less well studied, we present a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPP, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. In our proposed framework, prompts are small learnable parameters, maintained in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP so that the model is properly instructed to learn event streams arriving sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We formalize a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently sets state-of-the-art performance across two real user behavior datasets.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shida Wang, Beichen Xue

State-space models have gained popularity in sequence modelling due to their simple and efficient network structures. However, the absence of nonlinear activation along the temporal direction limits the model's capacity. In this paper, we prove that stacking state-space models with layer-wise nonlinear activation is sufficient to approximate any continuous sequence-to-sequence relationship. Our findings demonstrate that the addition of layer-wise nonlinear activation enhances the model's capacity to learn complex sequence patterns. Meanwhile, it can be seen both theoretically and empirically that the state-space models do not fundamentally resolve the issue of exponential decaying memory. Theoretical results are justified by numerical verifications.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, Haotian Xu, Daren Wang, OSCAR HERNAN MADRID PADILLA, Yi Yu

This paper addresses the problem of localizing and inferring multiple change points, in non-parametric multivariate time series settings. Specifically, we consider a multivariate time series with potentially short-range dependence, whose underlying distributions have Hölder smooth densities and can change over time in a piecewise-constant manner. The change points, which correspond to the times when the distribution changes, are unknown. We present the limiting distributions of the change point estimators under the scenarios where the minimal jump size vanishes or remains constant. Such results have not been revealed in the literature in non-parametric change point settings. As byproducts, we develop a sharp estimator that can accurately localize the change points in multivariate non-parametric time series, and a consistent block-type long-run variance estimator. Numerical studies are provided to complement our theoretical findings.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Xiao Shou, Debarun Bhattacharjya, Tian Gao, Dharmashankar Subramanian, Oktie Hassanzadeh, Kristin P Bennett

Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by injecting pairwise qualitative causal knowledge such as `event Z amplifies future occurrences of event Y'. We establish a new framework for causal inference in temporal event sequences using a transformer architecture, providing a theoretical justification for our approach, and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of the proposed measure. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy by effectively leveraging knowledge about causal pairs. We also consider a unique application where we extract knowledge around sequences of societal events by generating them from a large language model, and demonstrate how a causal knowledge graph can help with event prediction in such sequences. Overall, our framework offers a practical means of improving the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by explicitly exploiting pairwise causal information.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Owen Queen, Tom Hartvigsen, Teddy Koker, Huan He, Theodoros Tsiligkaridis, Marinka Zitnik

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Bong Gyun Kang, HyunGi Kim, Dahuin Jung, Sungroh Yoon

Continual learning (CL) aims to incrementally learn multiple tasks that are presented sequentially. The significance of CL lies not only in the practical importance but also in studying the learning mechanisms of humans who are excellent continual learners. While most research on CL has been done on structured data such as images, there is a lack of research on CL for abstract logical concepts such as counting, sorting, and arithmetic, which humans learn gradually over time in the real world. In this work, for the first time, we introduce novel algorithmic reasoning (AR) methodology for continual tasks of abstract concepts: CLeAR. Our methodology proposes a one-to-many mapping of input distribution to a shared mapping space, which allows the alignment of various tasks of different dimensions and shared semantics. Our tasks of abstract logical concepts, in the form of formal language, can be classified into Chomsky hierarchies based on their difficulty. In this study, we conducted extensive experiments consisting of 15 tasks with various levels of Chomsky hierarchy, ranging from in-hierarchy to inter-hierarchy scenarios. CLeAR not only achieved near zero forgetting but also improved accuracy during following tasks, a phenomenon known as backward transfer, while previous CL methods designed for image classification drastically failed.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Jiaxiang Dong, Haixu Wu, Haoran Zhang, Li Zhang, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long

Time series analysis is widely used in extensive areas. Recently, to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various tasks, self-supervised pre-training has attracted immense interest. One mainstream paradigm is masked modeling, which successfully pre-trains deep models by learning to reconstruct the masked content based on the unmasked part. However, since the semantic information of time series is mainly contained in temporal variations, the standard way of randomly masking a portion of time points will seriously ruin vital temporal variations of time series, making the reconstruction task too difficult to guide representation learning. We thus present SimMTM, a Simple pre-training framework for Masked Time-series Modeling. By relating masked modeling to manifold learning, SimMTM proposes to recover masked time points by the weighted aggregation of multiple neighbors outside the manifold, which eases the reconstruction task by assembling ruined but complementary temporal variations from multiple masked series. SimMTM further learns to uncover the local structure of the manifold, which is helpful for masked modeling. Experimentally, SimMTM achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced time series pre-training methods in two canonical time series analysis tasks: forecasting and classification, covering both in- and cross-domain settings.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Samuel Dooley, Gurnoor Singh Khurana, Chirag Mohapatra, Siddartha V Naidu, Colin White

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Cheng Tan, Siyuan Li, Zhangyang Gao, Wenfei Guan, Zedong Wang, Zicheng Liu, Lirong Wu, Stan Z. Li

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow, and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Chirag Raman, Alec Nonnemaker, Amelia Villegas-Morcillo, Hayley Hung, Marco Loog

We propose a post hoc saliency-based explanation framework for counterfactual reasoning in probabilistic multivariate time-series forecasting (regression) settings. Building upon Miller's framework of explanations derived from research in multiple social science disciplines, we establish a conceptual link between counterfactual reasoning and saliency-based explanation techniques. To address the lack of a principled notion of saliency, we leverage a unifying definition of information-theoretic saliency grounded in preattentive human visual cognition and extend it to forecasting settings. Specifically, we obtain a closed-form expression for commonly used density functions to identify which observed timesteps appear salient to an underlying model in making its probabilistic forecasts. We empirically validate our framework in a principled manner using synthetic data to establish ground-truth saliency that is unavailable for real-world data. Finally, using real-world data and forecasting models, we demonstrate how our framework can assist domain experts in forming new data-driven hypotheses about the causal relationships between features in the wild.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Shane Bergsma, Tim Zeyl, Lei Guo

We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional probabilities. When generating long sequences, most autoregressive approaches suffer from harmful error accumulation, as well as challenges in modeling long-distance dependencies. SutraNets treat long, univariate prediction as multivariate prediction over lower-frequency sub-series. Autoregression proceeds across time and across sub-series in order to ensure coherent multivariate (and, hence, high-frequency univariate) outputs. Since sub-series can be generated using fewer steps, SutraNets effectively reduce error accumulation and signal path distances. We find SutraNets to significantly improve forecasting accuracy over competitive alternatives on six real-world datasets, including when we vary the number of sub-series and scale up the depth and width of the underlying sequence models.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Vinitra Swamy, Malika Satayeva, Jibril Frej, Thierry Bossy, Thijs Vogels, Martin Jaggi, Tanja Käser, Mary-Anne Hartley

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Zhen Liu, ma peitian, Dongliang Chen, Wenbin Pei, Qianli Ma

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been criticized because they easily overfit noisy (incorrect) labels. To improve the robustness of DNNs, existing methods for image data regard samples with small training losses as correctly labeled data (small-loss criterion). Nevertheless, time series' discriminative patterns are easily distorted by external noises (i.e., frequency perturbations) during the recording process. This results in training losses of some time series samples that do not meet the small-loss criterion. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep learning paradigm called Scale-teaching to cope with time series noisy labels. Specifically, we design a fine-to-coarse cross-scale fusion mechanism for learning discriminative patterns by utilizing time series at different scales to train multiple DNNs simultaneously. Meanwhile, each network is trained in a cross-teaching manner by using complementary information from different scales to select small-loss samples as clean labels. For unselected large-loss samples, we introduce multi-scale embedding graph learning via label propagation to correct their labels by using selected clean samples. Experiments on multiple benchmark time series datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed Scale-teaching paradigm over state-of-the-art methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Jonathan Pilault, Mahan Fathi, Orhan Firat, Chris Pal, Pierre-Luc Bacon, Ross Goroshin

State space models (SSMs) have shown impressive results on tasks that require modeling long-range dependencies and efficiently scale to long sequences owing to their subquadratic runtime complexity.Originally designed for continuous signals, SSMs have shown superior performance on a plethora of tasks, in vision and audio; however, SSMs still lag Transformer performance in Language Modeling tasks.In this work, we propose a hybrid layer named Block-State Transformer (*BST*), that internally combines an SSM sublayer for long-range contextualization, and a Block Transformer sublayer for short-term representation of sequences.We study three different, and completely *parallelizable*, variants that integrate SSMs and block-wise attention.We show that our model outperforms similar Transformer-based architectures on language modeling perplexity and generalizes to longer sequences. In addition, the Block-State Transformer demonstrates a more than *tenfold* increase in speed at the layer level compared to the Block-Recurrent Transformer when model parallelization is employed.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Aaditya Singh, Stephanie Chan, Ted Moskovitz, Erin Grant, Andrew Saxe, Felix Hill

Transformer neural networks can exhibit a surprising capacity for in-context learning (ICL) despite not being explicitly trained for it. Prior work has provided a deeper understanding of how ICL emerges in transformers, e.g. through the lens of mechanistic interpretability, Bayesian inference, or by examining the distributional properties of training data. However, in each of these cases, ICL is treated largely as a persistent phenomenon; namely, once ICL emerges, it is assumed to persist asymptotically. Here, we show that the emergence of ICL during transformer training is, in fact, often transient. We train transformers on synthetic data designed so that both ICL and in-weights learning (IWL) strategies can lead to correct predictions. We find that ICL first emerges, then disappears and gives way to IWL, all while the training loss decreases, indicating an asymptotic preference for IWL. The transient nature of ICL is observed in transformers across a range of model sizes and datasets, raising the question of how much to ``overtrain'' transformers when seeking compact, cheaper-to-run models. We find that L2 regularization may offer a path to more persistent ICL that removes the need for early stopping based on ICL-style validation tasks. Finally, we present initial evidence that ICL transience may be caused by competition between ICL and IWL circuits.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Yihe Wang, Yu Han, Haishuai Wang, Xiang Zhang

Contrastive representation learning is crucial in medical time series analysis as it alleviates dependency on labor-intensive, domain-specific, and scarce expert annotations. However, existing contrastive learning methods primarily focus on one single data level, which fails to fully exploit the intricate nature of medical time series. To address this issue, we present COMET, an innovative hierarchical framework that leverages data consistencies at all inherent levels in medical time series. Our meticulously designed model systematically captures data consistency from four potential levels: observation, sample, trial, and patient levels. By developing contrastive loss at multiple levels, we can learn effective representations that preserve comprehensive data consistency, maximizing information utilization in a self-supervised manner. We conduct experiments in the challenging patient-independent setting. We compare COMET against six baselines using three diverse datasets, which include ECG signals for myocardial infarction and EEG signals for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases. The results demonstrate that COMET consistently outperforms all baselines, particularly in setup with 10% and 1% labeled data fractions across all datasets. These results underscore the significant impact of our framework in advancing contrastive representation learning techniques for medical time series. The source code is available at https://github.com/DL4mHealth/COMET.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Chih-Yu (Andrew) Lai, Fan-Keng Sun, Zhengqi Gao, Jeffrey H Lang, Duane Boning

Time series anomaly detection is challenging due to the complexity and variety of patterns that can occur. One major difficulty arises from modeling time-dependent relationships to find contextual anomalies while maintaining detection accuracy for point anomalies. In this paper, we propose a framework for unsupervised time series anomaly detection that utilizes point-based and sequence-based reconstruction models. The point-based model attempts to quantify point anomalies, and the sequence-based model attempts to quantify both point and contextual anomalies. Under the formulation that the observed time point is a two-stage deviated value from a nominal time point, we introduce a nominality score calculated from the ratio of a combined value of the reconstruction errors. We derive an induced anomaly score by further integrating the nominality score and anomaly score, then theoretically prove the superiority of the induced anomaly score over the original anomaly score under certain conditions. Extensive studies conducted on several public datasets show that the proposed framework outperforms most state-of-the-art baselines for time series anomaly detection.

Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series

Dror Freirich, Tomer Michaeli, Ron Meir

Many practical settings call for the reconstruction of temporal signals from corrupted or missing data. Classic examples include decoding, tracking, signal enhancement and denoising. Since the reconstructed signals are ultimately viewed by humans, it is desirable to achieve reconstructions that are pleasing to human perception.Mathematically, perfect perceptual-quality is achieved when the distribution of restored signals is the same as that of natural signals, a requirement which has been heavily researched in static estimation settings (i.e. when a whole signal is processed at once). Here, we study the problem of optimal causal filtering under a perfect perceptual-quality constraint, which is a task of fundamentally different nature. Specifically, we analyze a Gaussian Markov signal observed through a linear noisy transformation. In the absence of perceptual constraints, the Kalman filter is known to be optimal in the MSE sense for this setting. Here, we show that adding the perfect perceptual quality constraint (i.e. the requirement of temporal consistency), introduces a fundamental dilemma whereby the filter may have to ``knowingly'' ignore new information revealed by the observations in order to conform to its past decisions. This often comes at the cost of a significant increase in the MSE (beyond that encountered in static settings). Our analysis goes beyond the classic innovation process of the Kalman filter, and introduces the novel concept of an unutilized information process. Using this tool, we present a recursive formula for perceptual filters, and demonstrate the qualitative effects of perfect perceptual-quality estimation on a video reconstruction problem.