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Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Radu Marinescu, Debarun Bhattacharjya, Junkyu Lee, Fabio Cozman, Alexander Gray

Credal networks extend Bayesian networks to allow for imprecision in probability values. Marginal MAP is a widely applicable mixed inference task that identifies the most likely assignment for a subset of variables (called MAP variables). However, the task is extremely difficult to solve in credal networks particularly because the evaluation of each complete MAP assignment involves exact likelihood computations (combinatorial sums) over the vertices of a complex joint credal set representing the space of all possible marginal distributions of the MAP variables. In this paper, we explore Credal Marginal MAP inference and develop new exact methods based on variable elimination and depth-first search as well as several approximation schemes based on the mini-bucket partitioning and stochastic local search. An extensive empirical evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of our new methods on random as well as real-world benchmark problems.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Zhongjie Yu, Martin Trapp, Kristian Kersting

In many real-world scenarios it is crucial to be able to reliably and efficiently reason under uncertainty while capturing complex relationships in data. Probabilistic circuits (PCs), a prominent family of tractable probabilistic models, offer a remedy to this challenge by composing simple, tractable distributions into a high-dimensional probability distribution. However, learning PCs on heterogeneous data is challenging and densities of some parametric distributions are not available in closed form, limiting their potential use. We introduce characteristic circuits (CCs), a family of tractable probabilistic models providing a unified formalization of distributions over heterogeneous data in the spectral domain. The one-to-one relationship between characteristic functions and probability measures enables us to learn high-dimensional distributions on heterogeneous data domains and facilitates efficient probabilistic inference even when no closed-form density function is available. We show that the structure and parameters of CCs can be learned efficiently from the data and find that CCs outperform state-of-the-art density estimators for heterogeneous data domains on common benchmark data sets.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Xiwen WANG, Jiaxi Ying, Daniel Palomar

This paper studies the problem of learning the large-scale Gaussian graphical models that are multivariate totally positive of order two ($\text{MTP}_2$). By introducing the concept of bridge, which commonly exists in large-scale sparse graphs, we show that the entire problem can be equivalently optimized through (1) several smaller-scaled sub-problems induced by a \emph{bridge-block decomposition} on the thresholded sample covariance graph and (2) a set of explicit solutions on entries corresponding to \emph{bridges}. From practical aspect, this simple and provable discipline can be applied to break down a large problem into small tractable ones, leading to enormous reduction on the computational complexity and substantial improvements for all existing algorithms. The synthetic and real-world experiments demonstrate that our proposed method presents a significant speed-up compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Fiona Lippert, Bart Kranstauber, Emiel van Loon, Patrick Forré

Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this structure to develop a computationally efficient approach to state estimation and learning in graph-structured state-space models with (partially) unknown dynamics and limited historical data. Building on recent methods that combine ideas from deep learning with principled inference in Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF), we reformulate graph-structured state-space models as Deep GMRFs defined by simple spatial and temporal graph layers. This results in a flexible spatiotemporal prior that can be learned efficiently from a single time sequence via variational inference. Under linear Gaussian assumptions, we retain a closed-form posterior, which can be sampled efficiently using the conjugate gradient method, scaling favourably compared to classical Kalman filter based approaches.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Neel Guha, Mayee Chen, Kush Bhatia, Azalia Mirhoseini, Frederic Sala, Christopher Ré

Recent work has shown that language models' (LMs) prompt-based learning capabilities make them well suited for automating data labeling in domains where manual annotation is expensive. The challenge is that while writing an initial prompt is cheap, improving a prompt is costly---practitioners often require significant labeled data in order to evaluate the impact of prompt modifications. Our work asks whether it is possible to improve prompt-based learning _without_ additional labeled data. We approach this problem by attempting to modify the predictions of a prompt, rather than the prompt itself. Our intuition is that accurate predictions should also be consistent: samples which are similar under some feature representation should receive the same prompt prediction. We propose Embroid, a method which computes multiple representations of a dataset under different embedding functions, and uses the consistency between the LM predictions for neighboring samples to identify mispredictions. Embroid then uses these neighborhoods to create additional predictions for each sample, and combines these predictions with a simple latent variable graphical model in order to generate a final corrected prediction. In addition to providing a theoretical analysis of Embroid, we conduct a rigorous empirical evaluation across six different LMs and up to 95 different tasks. We find that (1) Embroid substantially improves performance over original prompts (e.g., by an average of 7.3 points on GPT-JT), (2) also realizes improvements for more sophisticated prompting strategies (e.g., chain-of-thought), and (3) can be specialized to domains like law through the embedding functions.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Shivani Bathla, Vinita Vasudevan

Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Henry C Bendekgey, Gabe Hope, Erik Sudderth

By composing graphical models with deep learning architectures, we learn generative models with the strengths of both frameworks. The structured variational autoencoder (SVAE) inherits structure and interpretability from graphical models, and flexible likelihoods for high-dimensional data from deep learning, but poses substantial optimization challenges. We propose novel algorithms for learning SVAEs, and are the first to demonstrate the SVAE's ability to handle multimodal uncertainty when data is missing by incorporating discrete latent variables. Our memory-efficient implicit differentiation scheme makes the SVAE tractable to learn via gradient descent, while demonstrating robustness to incomplete optimization. To more rapidly learn accurate graphical model parameters, we derive a method for computing natural gradients without manual derivations, which avoids biases found in prior work. These optimization innovations enable the first comparisons of the SVAE to state-of-the-art time series models, where the SVAE performs competitively while learning interpretable and structured discrete data representations.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Marcello Massimo Negri, Fabricio Arend Torres, Volker Roth

Studying conditional independence among many variables with few observations is a challenging task.Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) tackle this problem by encouraging sparsity in the precision matrix through $l_q$ regularization with $q\leq1$.However, most GMMs rely on the $l_1$ norm because the objective is highly non-convex for sub-$l_1$ pseudo-norms.In the frequentist formulation, the $l_1$ norm relaxation provides the solution path as a function of the shrinkage parameter $\lambda$.In the Bayesian formulation, sparsity is instead encouraged through a Laplace prior, but posterior inference for different $\lambda$ requires repeated runs of expensive Gibbs samplers.Here we propose a general framework for variational inference with matrix-variate Normalizing Flow in GGMs, which unifies the benefits of frequentist and Bayesian frameworks.As a key improvement on previous work, we train with one flow a continuum of sparse regression models jointly for all regularization parameters $\lambda$ and all $l_q$ norms, including non-convex sub-$l_1$ pseudo-norms.Within one model we thus have access to (i) the evolution of the posterior for any $\lambda$ and any $l_q$ (pseudo-) norm, (ii) the marginal log-likelihood for model selection, and (iii) the frequentist solution paths through simulated annealing in the MAP limit.

Probabilistic Methods/Graphical Models

Jian-Feng CAI, José Vinícius de Miranda Cardoso, Daniel Palomar, Jiaxi Ying

We study the problem of estimating precision matrices in Gaussian distributions that are multivariate totally positive of order two ($\mathrm{MTP}_2$). The precision matrix in such a distribution is an M-matrix. This problem can be formulated as a sign-constrained log-determinant program. Current algorithms are designed using the block coordinate descent method or the proximal point algorithm, which becomes computationally challenging in high-dimensional cases due to the requirement to solve numerous nonnegative quadratic programs or large-scale linear systems. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm based on the two-metric projection method, incorporating a carefully designed search direction and variable partitioning scheme. Our algorithm substantially reduces computational complexity, and its theoretical convergence is established. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithm provides a significant improvement in computational efficiency compared to the state-of-the-art methods.