论文检索

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Tristan Deleu, Mizu Nishikawa-Toomey, Jithendaraa Subramanian, Nikolay Malkin, Laurent Charlin, Yoshua Bengio

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a class of generative models over discrete and structured sample spaces, have been previously applied to the problem of inferring the marginal posterior distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a Bayesian Network, given a dataset of observations. Based on recent advances extending this framework to non-discrete sample spaces, we propose in this paper to approximate the joint posterior over not only the structure of a Bayesian Network, but also the parameters of its conditional probability distributions. We use a single GFlowNet whose sampling policy follows a two-phase process: the DAG is first generated sequentially one edge at a time, and then the corresponding parameters are picked once the full structure is known. Since the parameters are included in the posterior distribution, this leaves more flexibility for the local probability models of the Bayesian Network, making our approach applicable even to non-linear models parametrized by neural networks. We show that our method, called JSP-GFN, offers an accurate approximation of the joint posterior, while comparing favorably against existing methods on both simulated and real data.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Andrea Cini, Daniele Zambon, Cesare Alippi

Outstanding achievements of graph neural networks for spatiotemporal time series analysis show that relational constraints introduce an effective inductive bias into neural forecasting architectures. Often, however, the relational information characterizing the underlying data-generating process is unavailable and the practitioner is left with the problem of inferring from data which relational graph to use in the subsequent processing stages. We propose novel, principled - yet practical - probabilistic score-based methods that learn the relational dependencies as distributions over graphs while maximizing end-to-end the performance at task. The proposed graph learning framework is based on consolidated variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo score-based gradient estimation, is theoretically grounded, and, as we show, effective in practice. In this paper, we focus on the time series forecasting problem and show that, by tailoring the gradient estimators to the graph learning problem, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art performance while controlling the sparsity of the learned graph and the computational scalability. We empirically assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that the proposed solution can be used as a stand-alone graph identification procedure as well as a graph learning component of an end-to-end forecasting architecture.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Bryan Andrews, Joseph Ramsey, Ruben Sanchez Romero, Jazmin Camchong, Erich Kummerfeld

Learning graphical conditional independence structures is an important machine learning problem and a cornerstone of causal discovery. However, the accuracy and execution time of learning algorithms generally struggle to scale to problems with hundreds of highly connected variables---for instance, recovering brain networks from fMRI data. We introduce the best order score search (BOSS) and grow-shrink trees (GSTs) for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in this paradigm. BOSS greedily searches over permutations of variables, using GSTs to construct and score DAGs from permutations. GSTs efficiently cache scores to eliminate redundant calculations. BOSS achieves state-of-the-art performance in accuracy and execution time, comparing favorably to a variety of combinatorial and gradient-based learning algorithms under a broad range of conditions. To demonstrate its practicality, we apply BOSS to two sets of resting-state fMRI data: simulated data with pseudo-empirical noise distributions derived from randomized empirical fMRI cortical signals and clinical data from 3T fMRI scans processed into cortical parcels. BOSS is available for use within the TETRAD project which includes Python and R wrappers.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Junren Chen, Jonathan Scarlett, Michael Ng, Zhaoqiang Liu

In generative compressed sensing (GCS), we want to recover a signal $\mathbf{x^*}\in\mathbb{R}^n$ from $m$ measurements ($m\ll n$) using a generative prior $\mathbf{x^*}\in G(\mathbb{B}_2^k(r))$, where $G$ is typically an $L$-Lipschitz continuous generative model and $\mathbb{B}_2^k(r)$ represents the radius-$r$ $\ell_2$-ball in $\mathbb{R}^k$. Under nonlinear measurements, most prior results are non-uniform, i.e., they hold with high probability for a fixed $\mathbf{x^*}$ rather than for all $\mathbf{x^*}$ simultaneously. In this paper, we build a unified framework to derive uniform recovery guarantees for nonlinear GCS where the observation model is nonlinear and possibly discontinuous or unknown. Our framework accommodates GCS with 1-bit/uniformly quantized observations and single index model as canonical examples. Specifically, using a single realization of the sensing ensemble and generalized Lasso, all $\mathbf{x^*}\in G(\mathbb{B}_2^k(r))$ can be recovered up to an $\ell_2$-error at most $\epsilon$ using roughly $\tilde{O}({k}/{\epsilon^2})$ samples, with omitted logarithmic factors typically being dominated by $\log L$. Notably, this almost coincides with existing non-uniform guarantees up to logarithmic factors, hence the uniformity costs very little. As part of our technical contributions, we introduce Lipschitz approximation to handle discontinuous observation models. We also develop a concentration inequality that produces tighter bound for product process whose index sets have low metric entropy. Experimental results are presented to corroborate our theory.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Yeshu Li, Brian Ziebart

We consider the problem of learning the exact skeleton of general discrete Bayesian networks from potentially corrupted data. Building on distributionally robust optimization and a regression approach, we propose to optimize the most adverse risk over a family of distributions within bounded Wasserstein distance or KL divergence to the empirical distribution. The worst-case risk accounts for the effect of outliers. The proposed approach applies for general categorical random variables without assuming faithfulness, an ordinal relationship or a specific form of conditional distribution. We present efficient algorithms and show the proposed methods are closely related to the standard regularized regression approach. Under mild assumptions, we derive non-asymptotic guarantees for successful structure learning with logarithmic sample complexities for bounded-degree graphs. Numerical study on synthetic and real datasets validates the effectiveness of our method.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Enrico Giudice, Jack Kuipers, Giusi Moffa

Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows the description of continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.

Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning

Xitong Liang, Alberto Caron, Samuel Livingstone, Jim Griffin

In this paper, we introduce a novel MCMC sampler, PARNI-DAG, for a fully-Bayesian approach to the problem of structure learning under observational data. Under the assumption of causal sufficiency, the algorithm allows for approximate sampling directly from the posterior distribution on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). PARNI-DAG performs efficient sampling of DAGs via locally informed, adaptive random neighborhood proposal that results in better mixing properties. In addition, to ensure better scalability with the number of nodes, we couple PARNI-DAG with a pre-tuning procedure of the sampler's parameters that exploits a skeleton graph derived through some constraint-based or scoring-based algorithms. Thanks to these novel features, PARNI-DAG quickly converges to high-probability regions and is less likely to get stuck in local modes in the presence of high correlation between nodes in high-dimensional settings. After introducing the technical novelties in PARNI-DAG, we empirically demonstrate its mixing efficiency and accuracy in learning DAG structures on a variety of experiments.