With the rapid proliferation of short-video platforms and content-driven social networks, sequential recommendation models capable of accurately capturing user interests have become increasingly crucial. Among these, Transformer-based sequential recommendation models have gained widespread adoption due to their superior ability. The positional encoding (PE) in Transformer architectures serves to incorporate positional information into sequences. However, relying solely on original absolute positional information may be insufficient for sequential recommendation models. In contrast, the dwell time after interactions (i.e., the time intervals between consecutive user interactions) provides a more accurate reflection of users' emotional responses and evolving interests. Despite its significance, this aspect has often been overlooked in existing works. To fully utilize this information, our work introduces an adaptive PE method, termed TSAPE (Temporal-Series-Aware Positional Encoding). This approach introduces an innovative modeling of the sequence of time intervals between user interactions, rather than the numerical values of the intervals themselves, thereby capturing real-time feedback on user interests and integrating it with conventional PE mechanisms. Furthermore, we employ multiple layers of one-dimensional convolutional networks and attention mechanisms to endow the features with adaptive capabilities across various time interval scenarios. This enables TSAPE to more accurately capture sequential positional information at any given moment. By enhancing the sequential order information of interactions, TSAPE significantly improves the accuracy of next-item recommendations. We seamlessly integrated our method into several Transformer-based sequential recommendation models and conducted comparisons with state-of-the-art sequential recommendation approaches and widely-used PE methods. The results demonstrate that the integration of TSAPE consistently outperforms the original backbone models and other SOTA methods. The SASRec model integrated with TSAPE achieves an average improvement of 15.61% across three evaluation metrics on four benchmark datasets. Our code has been made publicly available at https://github.com/rongbo-qi/TSAPE_Rec.
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Deep learning has achieved strong results in modeling sequential data, including event sequences, temporal point processes, and irregular time series. Recently, transformers have largely replaced recurrent networks in these tasks. However, transformers often underperform recurrent networks in classification tasks that aim to predict future targets, such as churn, user reactions, or treatment response. The reason behind this performance gap remains largely underexplored. In this paper, we identify a key limitation of transformers: the lack of a single vector representation that compactly summarizes the evolving state of a sequence. We further show that commonly used contrastive embeddings are poorly suited to capturing the local context needed for accurate forward-looking prediction. To address these challenges, we introduce history tokens, a novel concept that enables the accumulation of historical information during next-token prediction pretraining. Our approach significantly improves transformer-based models, achieving impressive results in finance, e-commerce, and healthcare tasks. The code is publicly available: https://github.com/ivan-chai/pretpp.
Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. The transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a naïve application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, termed Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 2.2% against the most competitive baseline. We further show that MVCA can remedy the deficiencies of naïve attention in various deep learning models, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.
SVGL: Scale-Variable Graph Learning in Model Space for Multivariate Time Series Classification
PDF ↗Multivariate time series classification (MTSC) has broad applications in numerous domains. Existing MTSC methods typically focus on either temporal dynamics or variable interactions of the data, often overlooking cross-scale couplings among different variables. To bridge this gap, we propose Scale-Variable Graph Learning (SVGL), a novel framework that effectively captures data-inherent scale-variable interactions for MTSC. SVGL begins with spectral analysis to adaptively identify key periodic scales for each variable. A period-aware reservoir computing network is then incorporated to fit the variable at these scales, encoding the sequential and periodic dynamics into multi-scale dynamic representations. Subsequently, we construct a scale-variable graph to model interactions of the encoded temporal dynamics, where nodes represent scale-variable pairs and edges denote their correlations. After sparsely initializing the graph via nearest neighbors, a parallel graph learning architecture is integrated in SVGL, combining global graph convolutional and sample-specific graph attention to aggregate effective features for classification. Extensive experiments on 30 UEA datasets demonstrate that SVGL outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in accuracy and maintains low training overhead.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Sequence learning is dominated by Transformers and parallelizable recurrent neural networks such as state-space models, yet learning long-term dependencies remains challenging, and state-of-the-art designs trade power consumption for performance. The Bistable Memory Recurrent Unit (BMRU) was introduced to enable hardware–software co-design of ultra-low power RNNs: quantized states with hysteresis provide persistent memory while mapping directly to analog primitives. However, BMRU performance lags behind parallelizable RNNs on complex sequential tasks. In this paper, we identify gradient blocking during state updates as a key limitation and propose a cumulative update formulation that restores gradient flow while preserving persistent memory, creating skip-connections through time. This leads to the Cumulative Memory Recurrent Unit (CMRU) and its relaxed variant, the $\alpha$CMRU. Experiments show that the cumulative formulation dramatically improves convergence stability and reduces initialization sensitivity. The CMRU and $\alpha$CMRU match the performance of Linear Recurrent Units (LRUs) and minimal Gated Recurrent Units (minGRUs) on standard benchmarks at small model sizes, while the CMRU retains quantized states, persistent memory, and noise-resilient dynamics essential for analog implementation.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
In dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) we aim to recover the dynamical system (DS) underlying observed time series. Specifically, we aim to learn a generative surrogate model which approximates the underlying, data-generating DS, and recreates its long-term properties (`climate statistics'). In scientific and medical areas, in particular, these models need to be mechanistically tractable -- through their mathematical analysis we would like to obtain insight into the recovered system's workings. Piecewise-linear (PL), ReLU-based RNNs (PLRNNs) have a strong track-record in this regard, representing SOTA DSR models while allowing mathematical insight by virtue of their PL design. However, all current PLRNN variants are *discrete-time maps*. This is in disaccord with the assumed continuous-time nature of most physical and biological processes, and makes it hard to accommodate data arriving at *irregular* temporal intervals. Neural ODEs are one solution, but they do not reach the DSR performance of PLRNNs and often lack their tractability. Here we develop theory for *continuous-time* PLRNNs (cPLRNNs): We present a novel algorithm for training and simulating such models, bypassing numerical integration by efficiently exploiting their PL structure. We further demonstrate how important topological objects like equilibria or limit cycles can be determined semi-analytically in trained models. We compare cPLRNNs to both their discrete-time cousins as well as Neural ODEs on DSR benchmarks, including systems with discontinuities which come with hard thresholds.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
This paper studies the problem of recovering a hidden vertex correspondence between two correlated graphs when both edge weights and node features are observed. While most existing work on graph alignment relies primarily on edge information, many real-world applications provide informative node features in addition to graph topology. To capture this setting, we introduce the featured correlated Gaussian Wigner model, where two graphs are coupled through an unknown vertex permutation, and the node features are correlated under the same permutation. We characterize the optimal information-theoretic thresholds for exact recovery and partial recovery of the latent mapping. On the algorithmic side, we propose QPAlign, an efficient method based on a quadratic programming relaxation, and demonstrate its strong empirical performance on both synthetic and real datasets. Moreover, we also derive theoretical guarantees for the proposed procedure, supporting its reliability and providing convergence guarantees.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) into time series tasks has yielded impressive performance. While some works aim to enhance accuracy by explicitly designing step-by-step reasoning into prompts, such explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) approaches are difficult to generalize to time series. This is because it is difficult to clearly define the reasoning trajectories of time series. In addition, the high heterogeneity across time series often requires specialized prompt designs, limiting the model's scalability. To address these challenges, we propose **Time-CoT** (**Time** Series **C**hain-**o**f-**T**hought), a hierarchical reasoning framework based on temporal semantic codes for multivariate time series classification. This framework automatically constructs scenario-specific reasoning trajectories based on the characteristics of time series, thereby better eliciting the LLM's reasoning capability for time-series data. Specifically, Time-CoT, we first perform temporal representation pre-training with a multi-view temporal representation fusion to acquire high-quality temporal embeddings. We then discretize these temporal embeddings into hierarchical temporal semantic codes as the reasoning trajectory. Finally, the LLM predicts temporal semantic codes in a stepwise manner and then infers the final labels, thereby establishing a coarse-to-fine decision process. Experiments on ten public multivariate time series datasets demonstrate that the Time-CoT effectively adapts to diverse datasets and outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at .
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Conformal prediction is challenging for time series with the time-varying conditional distributions. Existing sequential conformal methods can yield volatile, non-nested prediction intervals due to noisy tail conditional quantile estimation and quantile crossing issue. To overcome this challenge, we construct the prediction intervals for time series via a novel method called Conditional Quantile Adjusted Conformal Prediction (CQACP), which stabilizes sequential conformal calibration by modeling the conditional quantile curve of nonconformity score. At each time step, CQACP evaluates a base conditional quantile learner on a grid of quantile levels, and fits a Cornish-Fisher approximation parameterized by conditional moments of nonconformity score with monotonicity constraints. Asymptotically, we prove the conditional validity of the prediction interval under serial dependence and show improved conditional quantile estimation accuracy. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that CQACP maintains accurate coverage and produces smooth, narrow, and nested prediction intervals across different significance levels and prediction models.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
This paper proposes a power-enhanced panel Granger causality test (PE-PGCT) for assessing the Granger non-causality in heterogeneous and potentially high-dimensional panel data. Building on any existing panel Granger non-causality test, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that the proposed PE-PGCT boosts its power substantially. The power gains are particularly significant in situations of high-dimensional panels when the cross-sectional dimension exceeds the time dimension, as well as under sparse alternatives when the signals are sparsely distributed across panel units. We establish rigorous theoretical guarantees on the asymptotic behavior of the proposed power enhancement component, demonstrating attractive power enhancement properties that it induces negligible size distortion under the null hypothesis while delivering significant power gain under the alternatives. The empirical performances are illustrated via extensive simulation studies, as well as a real-world application.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Knowledge Distillation (KD) promises to bridge the gap between the high computational costs of Transformer-based models and the expressiveness limitations of linear models in long-term time series forecasting. Existing time series distillation methods inherit the computer vision paradigm, constraining student models by minimizing point-wise prediction matching (output-level distillation) errors. However, blindly mimicking teacher predictions, which are often uncertain, can induce negative transfer. To address this, we propose Dynamic Structural Distillation (DSD), a robust framework that goes beyond the prediction-matching paradigm. First, we design LMP-Net, leveraging manifold expansion to project features into a high-dimensional latent space, alleviating the expressiveness bottleneck while preserving lightweight inference. Second, to address architectural mismatch, we propose Dual Manifold Alignment, employing Similarity-Preserving Knowledge Distillation (SPKD) and Optimal Transport (OT) to align features at the topological and geometric levels, respectively. Finally, we introduce Regime-Aware Adaptive Distillation (RAAD) to mitigate teacher misguidance via a dataset-level regime prior and a confidence-based adaptive gating mechanism. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks validate that DSD is compatible with diverse Transformer-based teachers, mitigating negative transfer while achieving a favorable accuracy--efficiency trade-off. An anonymized implementation is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DSD-master-4B8F.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10–70× speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method. Source code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ESE-C339.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Modern recommender systems are typically trained offline and deployed with parameters held fixed between periodic refreshes, yet user behavior can evolve substantially during deployment. This can cause ranking utility to degrade over time and makes it difficult to provide formal guarantees about recommendation quality. We propose **CARE**, an adaptive calibration framework that wraps an arbitrary backbone recommender and outputs variable-size recommendation sets with finite-sample performance guarantees over interaction streams. CARE combines (i) a loss-based monitoring module that localizes behavioral changes and triggers threshold recalibration, and (ii) an online aggregation rule that promotes compact recommendation sets by dynamically reweighting candidate set predictors. We provide theoretical results establishing finite-sample guarantees for utility-based risk control and bounds on the expected set size relative to the best constituent predictor. Experiments across multiple datasets and backbone models demonstrate that CARE improves robustness and maintains compact recommendation sets while preserving the desired statistical guarantees. The code and implementation are available in https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CARE-FCBD.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Recent artificial neural networks has demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks, raising expectations for Human-Level AI (HLAI). This position paper argues that integrating explicit memory is instrumental in advancing current AI towards HLAI. The key reason is that the underlying learning mechanism of artificial neural networks bears a notable resemblance to implicit memory of the basal ganglia. However, higher-order cognitive functions necessary for HLAI, such as long-term strategic planning, metacognition, and symbolic reasoning, heavily rely on the hippocampal explicit memory and cannot arise solely from implicit statistical learning. Based on this perspective, we define the computational requirements for artificial explicit memory systems, with the aim of fostering further research and laying the groundwork for explicit memory integration.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
This paper studies the problem of single domain generalization in time series classification, which aims to learn a generalized time series classification model using a single source domain. This problem is highly challenging due to unreliable supervision from domain scarcity. Although current approaches employ generative models for data augmentation, these synthesized samples often suffer from low diversity and intrinsic noise, leading to weak generalization ability. Towards this end, we propose a novel approach named Context-driven Diffusion with Progressive Expansion (CURE) for single domain generalization in time series classification. The core of our CURE is to generate both semantic-aware and semantic-free contexts to strategically guide a conditional diffusion model for informative data expansion. In particular, our CURE first conducts representation disentanglement to extract semantic-aware and semantic-free representations from source data. To enhance generalizability through data synthesis, we not only retrieve reference time series trajectories with similar semantics for semantic-aware contexts, but also utilize adversarial strategies to learn semantic-free contexts. These contexts are integrated as joint conditions for a diffusion model, enabling diverse and reliable virtual data. To enhance expansion adaptability and stable optimization, we progressively update our semantic-free contexts via a memory bank and measure boundary properties for dynamic data filtering. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed CURE in comparison to extensive baselines. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/cure_9C6E/.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
We propose non-parametric estimators for the average run length (ARL) and average detection delay (ADD) in quickest changepoint detection (QCD) under finite and irregular sequence lengths. Although ARL and ADD are widely used as optimality criteria in theoretical and simulation studies, their application to real-world datasets is hindered by limited and irregular sequence lengths. To address this issue, we propose non-parametric estimators for the ARL and ADD, termed _KM-ARL and KM-ADD_, by drawing an analogy between QCD and survival analysis to model detection probabilities under sequence truncation. We derive estimation bias bounds and prove that they are asymptotically unbiased unless extrapolation is required. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate their practical utility, enhancing robustness against limited and irregular sequence lengths, improving interpretability, and facilitating empirical, intuitive model selection. Our Python code is provided in the supplementary material, offering ready-to-use implementations for practitioners.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
How can we learn the laws underlying the dynamics of stochastic systems when their trajectories are sampled sparsely in time? Existing methods either require temporally resolved high-frequency observations, or rely on geometric arguments that apply only to conservative systems, limiting the range of dynamics they can recover. Here, we present a new framework that reconciles these two perspectives by reformulating inference as a stochastic control problem. Our method uses geometry-driven path augmentation, guided by structure in the system’s invariant density to reconstruct likely trajectories and infer the underlying dynamics without assuming specific parametric models. Applied to overdamped Langevin systems, our approach accurately recovers stochastic dynamics even from severely undersampled data, outperforming existing methods in synthetic benchmarks. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of incorporating geometric inductive biases into stochastic system identification methods, with broad applications across physics, biology, and control.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Sequential conformal prediction (CP) provides valid uncertainty quantification under the assumption of residual exchangeability. However, this assumption is often violated in real-world time series due to temporal dependencies and distributional shifts. While recent methods attempt to approximate exchangeability through reweighting, identifying optimal weights remains an open challenge. To address this limitation, we propose [DistMatch](https://anonymous.4open.science/r/distmatch/), a binning-based method that recursively partitions residuals within a binary tree using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic. We theoretically show that this partitioning induces approximately exchangeable leaves, thereby avoiding the need for reweighting. By applying quantile regression with online updates within each leaf, DistMatch enables locally adaptive inference and improves robustness to distributional shifts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DistMatch outperforms existing sequential CP methods.
Deep Learning · Sequential Models, Time series
Reservoir Computing (RC) has established itself as an efficient paradigm for temporal processing. However, its scalability remains severely constrained by (i) the necessity of processing temporal data sequentially and (ii) the prohibitive memory footprint of high-dimensional reservoirs. In this work, we revisit RC through the lens of structured operators and state space modeling to address these limitations, introducing Parallel Echo State Network (ParalESN). ParalESN enables the construction of high-dimensional and efficient reservoirs based on diagonal linear recurrence in the complex space, enabling parallel processing of temporal data. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that ParalESN preserves the Echo State Property and the universality guarantees of traditional Echo State Networks while admitting an equivalent representation of arbitrary linear reservoirs in the complex diagonal form. Empirically, ParalESN matches the predictive accuracy of traditional RC on time series benchmarks, while delivering substantial computational savings. On 1-D pixel-level classification tasks, ParalESN achieves competitive accuracy with fully trainable neural networks while reducing computational costs and energy consumption by orders of magnitude. Overall, ParalESN offers a promising, scalable, and principled pathway for integrating RC within the deep learning landscape.
General Machine Learning · Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains underexplored in the machine learning and statistics literature. We propose a method that uses low-rank matrices to represent the multivariate Poisson intensity functions, resulting in an adaptive nonparametric detection procedure. Our algorithm is single-pass and requires only constant computational cost per new observation, independent of the elapsed length of the time series. We provide theoretical guarantees to control the overall false alarm probability and characterize the detection delay under temporal dependence. We also develop a new Matrix Bernstein inequality for temporally dependent Poisson point process time series, which may be of independent interest. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method is both statistically robust and computationally efficient.