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Yun Sing Koh, Albert Bifet, Karin Bryan, Guilherme Cassales, Olivier Graffeuille, Nick Lim, Phil Mourot, Ding Ning, Bernhard Pfahringer, Varvara Vetrova 等

New Zealand's unique ecosystems face increasing threats from climate change, impacting biodiversity and posing challenges to safety, livelihoods, and well-being. To tackle these complex issues, advanced data science and artificial intelligence techniques can provide unique solutions. Currently, in its fourth year of a seven-year program, TAIAO focuses on methods for analyzing environmental datasets. Recognizing this urgency, the open-source TAIAO platform was developed. This platform enables new artificial intelligence research for environmental data and offers an open-access repository to enhance reproducibility in the field. This paper will showcase four environmental case studies, artificial intelligence research, platform implementation details, and future development plans.

Tianshu Bao, Taylor Thomas Johnson, Xiaowei Jia

Accurate streamflow prediction is critical for ensuring water supply and detecting floods, while also providing essential hydrological inputs for other scientific models in fields such as climate and agriculture. Recently, deep learning models have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art regionalization performance by building a global hydrologic model. These models predict streamflow given catchment physical characteristics and weather forcing data. However, these models are only focused on gauged basins and cannot adapt to ungaugaed basins, i.e., basins without training data. Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is considered one of the most important challenges in hydrology, as most basins in the United States and around the world have no observations. In this work, we propose a meta-transfer learning approach by enhancing imperfect physics equations that facilitate model adaptation. Intuitively, physical equations can often be used to regularize deep learning models to achieve robust regionalization performance under gauged scenarios, but they can be inaccurate due to the simplified representation of physics. We correct such uncertainty in physical equation by residual approximation and let these corrected equations guide the model training process. We evaluated the proposed method for predicting daily streamflow on the catchment attributes and meteorology for large-sample studies (CAMELS) dataset. The experiment results on hydrological data over 19 years demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in ungauged scenarios.

Thibault Falque, Gilles Audemard, Christophe Lecoutre, Bertrand Mazure

More than ever, air transport players (i.e., airline and airport companies) in an intensely competitive climate need to benefit from a carefully optimized management of airport resources to improve the quality of service and control the induced costs. In this paper, we investigate the Airport Check-in Desk Assignment Problem. We propose a Constraint Programming (CP) model for this problem, and present some promising experimental results from data coming from ADP (Aéroport de Paris). Our works are deployed in a preprod environment since 1 year.

Gustavo Perez, Subhransu Maji, Daniel Sheldon

Many applications use computer vision to detect and count objects in massive image collections. However, automated methods may fail to deliver accurate counts, especially when the task is very difficult or requires a fast response time. For example, during disaster response, aid organizations aim to quickly count damaged buildings in satellite images to plan relief missions, but pre-trained building and damage detectors often perform poorly due to domain shifts. In such cases, there is a need for human-in-the-loop approaches to accurately count with minimal human effort. We propose DISCount -- a detector-based importance sampling framework for counting in large image collections. DISCount uses an imperfect detector and human screening to estimate low-variance unbiased counts. We propose techniques for counting over multiple spatial or temporal regions using a small amount of screening and estimate confidence intervals. This enables end-users to stop screening when estimates are sufficiently accurate, which is often the goal in real-world applications. We demonstrate our method with two applications: counting birds in radar imagery to understand responses to climate change, and counting damaged buildings in satellite imagery for damage assessment in regions struck by a natural disaster. On the technical side we develop variance reduction techniques based on control variates and prove the (conditional) unbiasedness of the estimators. DISCount leads to a 9-12x reduction in the labeling costs to obtain the same error rates compared to naive screening for tasks we consider, and surpasses alternative covariate-based screening approaches.

Marcel Barros, Andressa Pinto, Andres Monroy, Felipe Moreno, Jefferson Coelho, Aldomar Pietro Silva, Caio Fabricio Deberaldini Netto, José Roberto Leite, Marlon Mathias, Eduardo Tannuri 等

Sea-level rise is a well-known consequence of climate change. Several studies have estimated the social and economic impact of the increase in extreme flooding. An efficient way to mitigate its consequences is the development of a flood alert and prediction system, based on high-resolution numerical models and robust sensing networks. However, current models use various simplifying assumptions that compromise accuracy to ensure solvability within a reasonable timeframe, hindering more regular and cost-effective forecasts for various locations along the shoreline. To address these issues, this work proposes a hybrid model for multimodal data processing that combines physics-based numerical simulations, data obtained from a network of sensors, and satellite images to provide refined wave and sea-surface height forecasts, with real results obtained in a critical location within the Port of Santos (the largest port in Latin America). Our approach exhibits faster convergence than data-driven models while achieving more accurate predictions. Moreover, the model handles irregularly sampled time series and missing data without the need for complex preprocessing mechanisms or data imputation while keeping low computational costs through a combination of time encoding, recurrent and graph neural networks. Enabling raw sensor data to be easily combined with existing physics-based models opens up new possibilities for accurate extreme storm tide events forecast systems that enhance community safety and aid policymakers in their decision-making processes.

Thomas Bailie, Yun Sing Koh, Neelesh Rampal, Peter B. Gibson

Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulate low resolution climate projections on a global scale. The native resolution of GCMs is generally too low for societal-level decision-making. To enhance the spatial resolution, downscaling is often applied to GCM output. Statistical downscaling techniques, in particular, are well-established as a cost-effective approach. They require significantly less computational time than physics-based dynamical downscaling. In recent years, deep learning has gained prominence in statistical downscaling, demonstrating significantly lower error rates compared to traditional statistical methods. However, a drawback of regression-based deep learning techniques is their tendency to overfit to the mean sample intensity. Extreme values as a result are often underestimated. Problematically, extreme events have the largest societal impact. We propose Quantile-Regression-Ensemble (QRE), an innovative deep learning algorithm inspired by boosting methods. Its primary objective is to avoid trade-offs between fitting to sample means and extreme values by training independent models on a partitioned dataset. Our QRE is robust to redundant models and not susceptible to explosive ensemble weights, ensuring a reliable training process. QRE achieves lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) compared to various baseline models. In particular, our algorithm has a lower error for high-intensity precipitation events over New Zealand, highlighting the ability to represent extreme events accurately.

Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Kiran Madhusudhanan, Randolf Scholz, Nourhan Ahmed, Johannes Burchert, Shayan Jawed, Stefan Born, Lars Schmidt-Thieme

Forecasting irregularly sampled time series with missing values is a crucial task for numerous real-world applications such as healthcare, astronomy, and climate sciences. State-of-the-art approaches to this problem rely on Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) which are known to be slow and often require additional features to handle missing values. To address this issue, we propose a novel model using Graphs for Forecasting Irregularly Sampled Time Series with missing values which we call GraFITi. GraFITi first converts the time series to a Sparsity Structure Graph which is a sparse bipartite graph, and then reformulates the forecasting problem as the edge weight prediction task in the graph. It uses the power of Graph Neural Networks to learn the graph and predict the target edge weights. GraFITi has been tested on 3 real-world and 1 synthetic irregularly sampled time series dataset with missing values and compared with various state-of-the-art models. The experimental results demonstrate that GraFITi improves the forecasting accuracy by up to 17% and reduces the run time up to 5 times compared to the state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Zexin Hu, Kun Hu, Clinton Mo, Lei Pan, Zhiyong Wang

Sketch-based terrain generation seeks to create realistic landscapes for virtual environments in various applications such as computer games, animation and virtual reality. Recently, deep learning based terrain generation has emerged, notably the ones based on generative adversarial networks (GAN). However, these methods often struggle to fulfill the requirements of flexible user control and maintain generative diversity for realistic terrain. Therefore, we propose a novel diffusion-based method, namely terrain diffusion network (TDN), which actively incorporates user guidance for enhanced controllability, taking into account terrain features like rivers, ridges, basins, and peaks. Instead of adhering to a conventional monolithic denoising process, which often compromises the fidelity of terrain details or the alignment with user control, a multi-level denoising scheme is proposed to generate more realistic terrains by taking into account fine-grained details, particularly those related to climatic patterns influenced by erosion and tectonic activities. Specifically, three terrain synthesisers are designed for structural, intermediate, and fine-grained level denoising purposes, which allow each synthesiser concentrate on a distinct terrain aspect. Moreover, to maximise the efficiency of our TDN, we further introduce terrain and sketch latent spaces for the synthesizers with pre-trained terrain autoencoders. Comprehensive experiments on a new dataset constructed from NASA Topology Images clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, achieving the state-of-the-art performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/TDNResearch/TDN.

Jae Choi, Yuzhou Chen, Huikyo Lee, Hyun Kim, Yulia R. Gel

Dynamics of many complex systems, from weather and climate to spread of infectious diseases, can be described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Such PDEs involve unknown function(s), partial derivatives, and typically multiple independent variables. The traditional numerical methods for solving PDEs assume that the data are observed on a regular grid. However, in many applications, for example, weather and air pollution monitoring delivered by the arbitrary located weather stations of the National Weather Services, data records are irregularly spaced. Furthermore, in problems involving prediction analytics such as forecasting wildfire smoke plumes, the primary focus may be on a set of irregular locations associated with urban development. In recent years, deep learning (DL) methods and, in particular, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a new promising tool that can complement traditional PDE solvers in scenarios of the irregular spaced data, contributing to the newest research trend of physics informed machine learning (PIML). However, most existing PIML methods tend to be limited in their ability to describe higher dimensional structural properties exhibited by real world phenomena, especially, ones that live on manifolds. To address this fundamental challenge, we bring the elements of the Hodge theory and, in particular, simplicial convolution defined on the Hodge Laplacian to the emerging nexus of DL and PDEs. In contrast to conventional Laplacian and the associated convolution operation, the simplicial convolution allows us to rigorously describe diffusion across higher order structures and to better approximate the complex underlying topology and geometry of the data. The new approach, Simplicial Neural Networks for Partial Differential Equations (SNN PDE) offers a computationally efficient yet effective solution for time dependent PDEs. Our studies of a broad range of synthetic data and wildfire processes demonstrate that SNN PDE improves upon state of the art baselines in handling unstructured grids and irregular time intervals of complex physical systems and offers competitive forecasting capabilities for weather and air quality forecasting.

Debo Cheng, Ziqi Xu, Jiuyong Li, Lin Liu, Jixue Liu, Wentao Gao, Thuc Duy Le

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful tool for addressing the latent confounders issue, but the traditional IV technique cannot deal with latent time-dependent confounders in longitudinal studies. In this work, we propose a novel Time-dependent Instrumental Factor Model (TIFM) for time-varying causal effect estimation from data with latent time-dependent confounders. At each time-step, the proposed TIFM method employs the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to infer latent IV, and then uses the inferred latent IV factor for addressing the confounding bias caused by the latent time-dependent confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed TIFM method regarding causal effect estimation in longitudinal data. Extensive evaluation with synthetic datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of TIFM in addressing causal effect estimation over time. We further apply TIFM to a climate dataset to showcase the potential of the proposed method in tackling real-world problems.

Zhecheng Wang, Rajanie Prabha, Tianyuan Huang, Jiajun Wu, Ram Rajagopal

Remote sensing imagery, despite its broad applications in helping achieve Sustainable Development Goals and tackle climate change, has not yet benefited from the recent advancements of versatile, task-agnostic vision language models (VLMs). A key reason is that the large-scale, semantically diverse image-text dataset required for developing VLMs is still absent for remote sensing images. Unlike natural images, remote sensing images and their associated text descriptions cannot be efficiently collected from the public Internet at scale. In this work, we bridge this gap by using geo-coordinates to automatically connect open, unlabeled remote sensing images with rich semantics covered in OpenStreetMap, and thus construct SkyScript, a comprehensive vision-language dataset for remote sensing images, comprising 2.6 million image-text pairs covering 29K distinct semantic tags. With continual pre-training on this dataset, we obtain a VLM that surpasses baseline models with a 6.2% average accuracy gain in zero-shot scene classification across seven benchmark datasets. It also demonstrates the ability of zero-shot transfer for fine-grained object attribute classification and cross-modal retrieval. We hope this dataset can support the advancement of VLMs for various multi-modal tasks in remote sensing, such as open-vocabulary classification, retrieval, captioning, and text-to-image synthesis.

Vitus Benson, Claire Robin, Christian Requena-Mesa, Lazaro Alonso, Nuno Carvalhais, José Cortés, Zhihan Gao, Nora Linscheid, Mélanie Weynants, Markus Reichstein

Precise geospatial vegetation forecasting holds potential across diverse sectors including agriculture forestry humanitarian aid and carbon accounting. To leverage the vast availability of satellite imagery for this task various works have applied deep neural networks for predicting multispectral images in photorealistic quality. However the important area of vegetation dynamics has not been thoroughly explored. Our study introduces GreenEarthNet the first dataset specifically designed for high-resolution vegetation forecasting and Contextformer a novel deep learning approach for predicting vegetation greenness from Sentinel 2 satellite images with fine resolution across Europe. Our multi-modal transformer model Contextformer leverages spatial context through a vision backbone and predicts the temporal dynamics on local context patches incorporating meteorological time series in a parameter-efficient manner. The GreenEarthNet dataset features a learned cloud mask and an appropriate evaluation scheme for vegetation modeling. It also maintains compatibility with the existing satellite imagery forecasting dataset EarthNet2021 enabling cross-dataset model comparisons. Our extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses reveal that our methods outperform a broad range of baseline techniques. This includes surpassing previous state-of-the-art models on EarthNet2021 as well as adapted models from time series forecasting and video prediction. To the best of our knowledge this work presents the first models for continental-scale vegetation modeling at fine resolution able to capture anomalies beyond the seasonal cycle thereby paving the way for predicting vegetation health and behaviour in response to climate variability and extremes. We provide open source code and pre-trained weights to reproduce our experimental results under https://github.com/vitusbenson/greenearthnet.

Arnav Hiray, Yunsong Liu, Mingxiao Song, Agam Shah, Sudheer Chava

U.S. congressional hearings significantly influence the national economy and social fabric, impacting individual lives. Despite their importance, there is a lack of comprehensive datasets for analyzing these discourses. To address this, we propose the **Co**ngress **Co**mmittee **H**earing **D**ataset (CoCoHD), covering hearings from 1997 to 2024 across 86 committees, with 32,697 records. This dataset enables researchers to study policy language on critical issues like healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights, and climate justice. We demonstrate its potential with a case study on 1,000 energy-related sentences, analyzing the Energy and Commerce Committee’s stance on fossil fuel consumption. By fine-tuning pre-trained language models, we create energy-relevant measures for each hearing. Our market analysis shows that natural language analysis using CoCoHD can predict and highlight trends in the energy sector.

Elizabeth Fons, Rachneet Kaur, Soham Palande, Zhen Zeng, Tucker Balch, Manuela Veloso, Svitlana Vyetrenko

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features, each accompanied by textual descriptions. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

Tobias Schimanski, Jingwei Ni, Roberto Spacey Martín, Nicola Ranger, Markus Leippold

To handle the vast amounts of qualitative data produced in corporate climate communication, stakeholders increasingly rely on Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. However, a significant gap remains in evaluating domain-specific information retrieval – the basis for answer generation. To address this challenge, this work simulates the typical tasks of a sustainability analyst by examining 30 sustainability reports with 16 detailed climate-related questions. As a result, we obtain a dataset with over 8.5K unique question-source-answer pairs labeled by different levels of relevance. Furthermore, we develop a use case with the dataset to investigate the integration of expert knowledge into information retrieval with embeddings. Although we show that incorporating expert knowledge works, we also outline the critical limitations of embeddings in knowledge-intensive downstream domains like climate change communication.

Ifeoluwa Wuraola, Nina Dethlefs, Daniel Marciniak

In the realm of social media discourse, the integration of slang enriches communication, reflecting the sociocultural identities of users. This study investigates the capability of large language models (LLMs) to paraphrase slang within climate-related tweets from Nigeria and the UK, with a focus on identifying emotional nuances. Using DistilRoBERTa as the base-line model, we observe its limited comprehension of slang. To improve cross-cultural understanding, we gauge the effectiveness of leading LLMs ChatGPT 4, Gemini, and LLaMA3 in slang paraphrasing. While ChatGPT 4 and Gemini demonstrate comparable effectiveness in slang paraphrasing, LLaMA3 shows less coverage, with all LLMs exhibiting limitations in coverage, especially of Nigerian slang. Our findings underscore the necessity for culturally sensitive LLM development in emotion classification, particularly in non-anglocentric regions.

Physical Models · Climate

Wanghan Xu, Fenghua Ling, zhangwenlong, Tao Han, Hao Chen, Wanli Ouyang, LEI BAI

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on learning data mapping rather than fine-grained physical evolution in the time dimension. Consequently, the limitations in the temporal scale of datasets prevent these models from forecasting at finer time scales. This paper proposes a physics-AI hybrid model (i.e., WeatherGFT) which generalizes weather forecasts to finer-grained temporal scales beyond training dataset. Specifically, we employ a carefully designed PDE kernel to simulate physical evolution on a small time scale (e.g., 300 seconds) and use a parallel neural networks with a learnable router for bias correction. Furthermore, we introduce a lead time-aware training framework to promote the generalization of the model at different lead times. The weight analysis of physics-AI modules indicates that physics conducts major evolution while AI performs corrections adaptively. Extensive experiments show that WeatherGFT trained on an hourly dataset, effectively generalizes forecasts across multiple time scales, including 30-minute, which is even smaller than the dataset's temporal resolution.

Physical Models · Climate

Prakhar Srivastava, Ruihan Yang, Gavin Kerrigan, Gideon Dresdner, Jeremy McGibbon, Christopher S. Bretherton, Stephan Mandt

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround where a low-resolution prediction is improved using statistical approaches. Unlike traditional computer vision tasks, weather and climate applications require capturing the accurate conditional distribution of high-resolution given low-resolution patterns to assure reliable ensemble averages and unbiased estimates of extreme events, such as heavy rain. This work extends recent video diffusion models to precipitation super-resolution, employing a deterministic downscaler followed by a temporally-conditioned diffusion model to capture noise characteristics and high-frequency patterns. We test our approach on FV3GFS output, an established large-scale global atmosphere model, and compare it against six state-of-the-art baselines. Our analysis, capturing CRPS, MSE, precipitation distributions, and qualitative aspects using California and the Himalayas as examples, establishes our method as a new standard for data-driven precipitation downscaling.

Physical Models · Climate

Chiu-Wai Yan, Shi Quan Foo, Van Hoan Trinh, Dit-Yan Yeung, Ka-Hing Wong, Wai-kin Wong

Deep learning approaches have been widely adopted for precipitation nowcasting in recent years. Previous studies mainly focus on proposing new model architectures to improve pixel-wise metrics. However, they frequently result in blurry predictions which provide limited utility to forecasting operations. In this work, we propose a new Fourier Amplitude and Correlation Loss (FACL) which consists of two novel loss terms: Fourier Amplitude Loss (FAL) and Fourier Correlation Loss (FCL). FAL regularizes the Fourier amplitude of the model prediction and FCL complements the missing phase information. The two loss terms work together to replace the traditional L2 losses such as MSE and weighted MSE for the spatiotemporal prediction problem on signal-based data. Our method is generic, parameter-free and efficient. Extensive experiments using one synthetic dataset and three radar echo datasets demonstrate that our method improves perceptual metrics and meteorology skill scores, with a small trade-off to pixel-wise accuracy and structural similarity. Moreover, to improve the error margin in meteorological skill scores such as Critical Success Index (CSI) and Fractions Skill Score (FSS), we propose and adopt the Regional Histogram Divergence (RHD), a distance metric that considers the patch-wise similarity between signal-based imagery patterns with tolerance to local transforms.

Physical Models · Climate

Salva Rühling Cachay, Brian Henn, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Christopher S. Bretherton, Rose Yu

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS.Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines.The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill.This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies. Code is available at [https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/spherical-dyffusion](https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/spherical-dyffusion).