论文检索

Causality

Dingling Yao, Caroline Muller, Francesco Locatello

Causal representation learning promises to extend causal models to hidden causal variables from raw entangled measurements. However, most progress has focused on proving identifiability results in different settings, and we are not aware of any successful real-world application. At the same time, the field of dynamical systems benefited from deep learning and scaled to countless applications but does not allow parameter identification. In this paper, we draw a clear connection between the two and their key assumptions, allowing us to apply identifiable methods developed in causal representation learning to dynamical systems. At the same time, we can leverage scalable differentiable solvers developed for differential equations to build models that are both identifiable and practical. Overall, we learn explicitly controllable models that isolate the trajectory-specific parameters for further downstream tasks such as out-of-distribution classification or treatment effect estimation. We experiment with a wind simulator with partially known factors of variation. We also apply the resulting model to real-world climate data and successfully answer downstream causal questions in line with existing literature on climate change.

Time Series

Chengsen Wang, Qi Qi, Jingyu Wang, Haifeng Sun, Zirui Zhuang, Jinming Wu, Jianxin Liao

Time series forecasting has played a pivotal role across various industries, including finance, transportation, energy, healthcare, and climate. Due to the abundant seasonal information they contain, timestamps possess the potential to offer robust global guidance for forecasting techniques. However, existing works primarily focus on local observations, with timestamps being treated merely as an optional supplement that remains underutilized. When data gathered from the real world is polluted, the absence of global information will damage the robust prediction capability of these algorithms. To address these problems, we propose a novel framework named GLAFF. Within this framework, the timestamps are modeled individually to capture the global dependencies. Working as a plugin, GLAFF adaptively adjusts the combined weights for global and local information, enabling seamless collaboration with any time series forecasting backbone. Extensive experiments conducted on nine real-world datasets demonstrate that GLAFF significantly enhances the average performance of widely used mainstream forecasting models by 12.5\%, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art method by 5.5\%.

Physical Models · Climate

Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, Jürgen Gall

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Time Series

Asadullah Hill Galib, Pang-Ning Tan, Lifeng Luo

Time series generation is a crucial aspect of data analysis, playing a pivotal role in learning the temporal patterns and their underlying dynamics across diverse fields. Conventional time series generation methods often struggle to capture extreme values adequately, diminishing their value in critical applications such as scenario planning and management for healthcare, finance, climate change adaptation, and beyond. In this paper, we introduce a conditional diffusion model called FIDE to address the challenge of preserving the distribution of extreme values in generative modeling for time series. FIDE employs a novel high-frequency inflation strategy in the frequency domain, preventing premature fade-out of the extreme value. It also extends traditional diffusion-based model, enabling the generation of samples conditioned on the block maxima, thereby enhancing the model's capacity to capture extreme events. Additionally, the FIDE framework incorporates the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution within its generative modeling framework, ensuring fidelity to both block maxima and overall data distribution. Experimental results on real-world and synthetic data showcase the efficacy of FIDE over baseline methods, highlighting its potential in advancing Generative AI for time series analysis, specifically in accurately modeling extreme events.

Physical Models · Climate

Robert Garrett, Trevor Harris, Zhuo Wang, Bo Li

The validation of global climate models is crucial to ensure the accuracy and efficacy of model output. We introduce the spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to more comprehensively measure differences between climate models and reanalysis data. This new similarity measure accounts for spatial variability using convolutional projections and quantifies local differences in the distribution of climate variables. We apply this method to evaluate the historical model outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) members by comparing them to observational and reanalysis data products. Additionally, we investigate the progression from CMIP phase 5 to phase 6 and find modest improvements in the phase 6 models regarding their ability to produce realistic climatologies.

Physical Models · Climate

Niloufar Zakariaei, Siddharth Rout, Eldad Haber, Moshe Eliasof

Many problems in physical sciences are characterized by the prediction of space-time sequences. Such problems range from weather prediction to the analysis of disease propagation and video prediction. Modern techniques for the solution of these problems typically combine Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) architecture with a time prediction mechanism. However, oftentimes, such approaches underperform in the long-range propagation of information and lack explainability. In this work, we introduce a physically inspired architecture for the solution of such problems. Namely, we propose to augment CNNs with advection by designing a novel semi-Lagrangian push operator. We show that the proposed operator allows for the non-local transformation of information compared with standard convolutional kernels. We then complement it with Reaction and Diffusion neural components to form a network that mimics the Reaction-Advection-Diffusion equation, in high dimensions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our network on a number of spatio-temporal datasets that show their merit. Our code is available at https://github.com/Siddharth-Rout/deepADRnet.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Nikolaos Ioannis Bountos, Maria Sdraka, Angelos Zavras, Andreas Karavias, Ilektra Karasante, Themistocles Herekakis, Angeliki Thanasou, Dimitrios Michail, Ioannis Papoutsis

Global flash floods, exacerbated by climate change, pose severe threats to humanlife, infrastructure, and the environment. Recent catastrophic events in Pakistan andNew Zealand underscore the urgent need for precise flood mapping to guide restoration efforts, understand vulnerabilities, and prepare for future occurrences. While Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing offers day-and-night, all-weatherimaging capabilities, its application in deep learning for flood segmentation is limited by the lack of large annotated datasets. To address this, we introduce KuroSiwo, a manually annotated multi-temporal dataset, spanning 43 flood events globally. Our dataset maps more than 338 billion $m^2$ of land, with 33 billion designatedas either flooded areas or permanent water bodies. Kuro Siwo includes a highlyprocessed product optimized for flash flood mapping based on SAR Ground RangeDetected, and a primal SAR Single Look Complex product with minimal preprocessing, designed to promote research on the exploitation of both the phase and amplitude information and to offer maximum flexibility for downstream task preprocessing. To leverage advances in large scale self-supervised pretraining methodsfor remote sensing data, we augment Kuro Siwo with a large unlabeled set of SARsamples. Finally, we provide an extensive benchmark, namely BlackBench, offering strong baselines for a diverse set of flood events globally. All data and code arepublished in our Github repository: https://github.com/Orion-AI-Lab/KuroSiwo.

Computational Biology

Chih-Hsuan Yang, Benjamin Feuer, Talukder "Zaki" Jubery, Zi Deng, Andre Nakkab, Md Zahid Hasan, Shivani Chiranjeevi, Kelly Marshall, Nirmal Baishnab, Asheesh Singh 等

We introduce BioTrove, the largest publicly accessible dataset designed to advance AI applications in biodiversity. Curated from the iNaturalist platform and vetted to include only research-grade data, BioTrove contains 161.9 million images, offering unprecedented scale and diversity from three primary kingdoms: Animalia ("animals"), Fungi ("fungi"), and Plantae ("plants"), spanning approximately 366.6K species. Each image is annotated with scientific names, taxonomic hierarchies, and common names, providing rich metadata to support accurate AI model development across diverse species and ecosystems.We demonstrate the value of BioTrove by releasing a suite of CLIP models trained using a subset of 40 million captioned images, known as BioTrove-Train. This subset focuses on seven categories within the dataset that are underrepresented in standard image recognition models, selected for their critical role in biodiversity and agriculture: Aves ("birds"), Arachnida} ("spiders/ticks/mites"), Insecta ("insects"), Plantae ("plants"), Fungi ("fungi"), Mollusca ("snails"), and Reptilia ("snakes/lizards"). To support rigorous assessment, we introduce several new benchmarks and report model accuracy for zero-shot learning across life stages, rare species, confounding species, and multiple taxonomic levels.We anticipate that BioTrove will spur the development of AI models capable of supporting digital tools for pest control, crop monitoring, biodiversity assessment, and environmental conservation. These advancements are crucial for ensuring food security, preserving ecosystems, and mitigating the impacts of climate change. BioTrove is publicly available, easily accessible, and ready for immediate use.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Ruohan Li, Yiqun Xie, Xiaowei Jia, Dongdong Wang, Yanhua Li, Yingxue Zhang, Zhihao Wang, Zhili Li

Solar power is a critical source of renewable energy, offering significant potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. However, the cloud induced-variability of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface presents a challenge for integrating solar power into the grid (e.g., storage and backup management). The new generation of geostationary satellites such as GOES-16 has become an important data source for large-scale and high temporal frequency solar radiation forecasting. However, no machine-learning-ready dataset has integrated geostationary satellite data with fine-grained solar radiation information to support forecasting model development and benchmarking with consistent metrics. We present SolarCube, a new ML-ready benchmark dataset for solar radiation forecasting. SolarCube covers 19 study areas distributed over multiple continents: North America, South America, Asia, and Oceania. The dataset supports short (i.e., 30 minutes to 6 hours) and long-term (i.e., day-ahead or longer) solar radiation forecasting at both point-level (i.e., specific locations of monitoring stations) and area-level, by processing and integrating data from multiple sources, including geostationary satellite images, physics-derived solar radiation, and ground station observations from different monitoring networks over the globe. We also evaluated a set of forecasting models for point- and image-based time-series data to develop performance benchmarks under different testing scenarios. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11498739. A Python library is available to conveniently generate different variations of the dataset based on user needs, along with baseline models at https://github.com/Ruohan-Li/SolarCube.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Juan Nathaniel, Yongquan Qu, Tung Nguyen, Sungduk Yu, Julius Busecke, Aditya Grover, Pierre Gentine

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions. We also propose physics-based, in addition to deterministic and probabilistic metrics, to ensure a physically-consistent ensemble that accounts for butterfly effect. Furthermore, we evaluate on a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from four national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart such as ViT/ClimaX, PanguWeather, GraphCast, and FourCastNetV2. Overall, we find methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fail on S2S task: their performance simply collapse to an unskilled climatology. Nonetheless, we outline and demonstrate several strategies that can extend the predictability range of existing weather emulators, including the use of ensembles, robust control of error propagation, and the use of physics-informed models. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Lukas Picek, Christophe Botella, Maximilien Servajean, César Leblanc, Rémi Palard, Theo Larcher, Benjamin Deneu, Diego Marcos, Pierre Bonnet, alexis joly

The difficulty of monitoring biodiversity at fine scales and over large areas limits ecological knowledge and conservation efforts. To fill this gap, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) predict species across space from spatially explicit features. Yet, they face the challenge of integrating the rich but heterogeneous data made available over the past decade, notably millions of opportunistic species observations and standardized surveys, as well as multi-modal remote sensing data.In light of that, we have designed and developed a new European-scale dataset for SDMs at high spatial resolution (10--50m), including more than 10k species (i.e., most of the European flora). The dataset comprises 5M heterogeneous Presence-Only records and 90k exhaustive Presence-Absence survey records, all accompanied by diverse environmental rasters (e.g., elevation, human footprint, and soil) traditionally used in SDMs. In addition, it provides Sentinel-2 RGB and NIR satellite images with 10 m resolution, a 20-year time series of climatic variables, and satellite time series from the Landsat program.In addition to the data, we provide an openly accessible SDM benchmark (hosted on Kaggle), which has already attracted an active community and a set of strong baselines for single predictor/modality and multimodal approaches.All resources, e.g., the dataset, pre-trained models, and baseline methods (in the form of notebooks), are available on Kaggle, allowing one to start with our dataset literally with two mouse clicks.

Datasets and Benchmarks

Arian Prabowo, Xiachong LIN, Imran Razzak, Hao Xue, Emily Yap, Matthew Amos, Flora Salim

Buildings play a crucial role in human well-being, influencing occupant comfort, health, and safety.Additionally, they contribute significantly to global energy consumption, accounting for one-third of total energy usage, and carbon emissions.Optimizing building performance presents a vital opportunity to combat climate change and promote human flourishing.However, research in building analytics has been hampered by the lack of accessible, available, and comprehensive real-world datasets on multiple building operations.In this paper, we introduce the Building TimeSeries (BTS) dataset.Our dataset covers three buildings over a three-year period, comprising more than ten thousand timeseries data points with hundreds of unique ontologies.Moreover, the metadata is standardized using the Brick schema.To demonstrate the utility of this dataset, we performed benchmarks on two tasks: timeseries ontology classification and zero-shot forecasting.These tasks represent an essential initial step in addressing challenges related to interoperability in building analytics.Access to the dataset and the code used for benchmarking are available here: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/DIEF\_BTS

Datasets and Benchmarks

Juan Nathaniel, Yongquan Qu, Tung Nguyen, Sungduk Yu, Julius Busecke, Aditya Grover, Pierre Gentine

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions. We also propose physics-based, in addition to deterministic and probabilistic metrics, to ensure a physically-consistent ensemble that accounts for butterfly effect. Furthermore, we evaluate on a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from four national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart such as ViT/ClimaX, PanguWeather, GraphCast, and FourCastNetV2. Overall, we find methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fail on S2S task: their performance simply collapse to an unskilled climatology. Nonetheless, we outline and demonstrate several strategies that can extend the predictability range of existing weather emulators, including the use of ensembles, robust control of error propagation, and the use of physics-informed models. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

Xiao Lin, Zhining Liu, Dongqi Fu, Ruizhong Qiu, Hanghang Tong

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is a fundamental task with numerous real-world applications, such as transportation, climate, and epidemiology. While a myriad of powerful deep learning models have been developed for this task, few works have explored the robustness of MTS forecasting models to malicious attacks, which is crucial for their trustworthy employment in high-stake scenarios. To address this gap, we dive deep into the backdoor attacks on MTS forecasting models and propose an effective attack method named BackTime. By subtly injecting a few \textit{stealthy triggers} into the MTS data, BackTime can alter the predictions of the forecasting model according to the attacker's intent. Specifically, BackTime first identifies vulnerable timestamps in the data for poisoning, and then adaptively synthesizes stealthy and effective triggers by solving a bi-level optimization problem with a GNN-based trigger generator. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets and state-of-the-art MTS forecasting models demonstrate the effectiveness, versatility, and stealthiness of BackTime attacks.

Reinforcement Learning · Multi-agent

Avisek Naug, Antonio Guillen-Perez, Ricardo Luna Gutierrez, Vineet Gundecha, Cullen Bash, Sahand Ghorbanpour, Sajad Mousavi, Ashwin Ramesh Babu, Dejan Markovikj, Lekhapriya Dheeraj Kashyap 等

Machine learning has driven an exponential increase in computational demand, leading to massive data centers that consume significant amounts of energy and contribute to climate change. This makes sustainable data center control a priority. In this paper, we introduce SustainDC, a set of Python environments for benchmarking multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms for data centers (DC). SustainDC supports custom DC configurations and tasks such as workload scheduling, cooling optimization, and auxiliary battery management, with multiple agents managing these operations while accounting for the effects of each other. We evaluate various MARL algorithms on SustainDC, showing their performance across diverse DC designs, locations, weather conditions, grid carbon intensity, and workload requirements. Our results highlight significant opportunities for improvement of data center operations using MARL algorithms. Given the increasing use of DC due to AI, SustainDC provides a crucial platform for the development and benchmarking of advanced algorithms essential for achieving sustainable computing and addressing other heterogeneous real-world challenges.

Physical Models · Climate

Tung Nguyen, Rohan Shah, Hritik Bansal, Troy Arcomano, Romit Maulik, Rao Kotamarthi, Ian Foster, Sandeep Madireddy, Aditya Grover

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer’s favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/stormer.

Harri Rowlands, Gaku Morio, Dylan Tanner, Christopher Manning

Social media advertising offers a platform for fossil fuel value chain companies and their agents to reinforce their narratives, often emphasizing economic, labor market, and energy security benefits to promote oil and gas policy and products. Whether such narratives can be detected automatically and the extent to which the cost of human annotation can be reduced is our research question. We introduce a task of classifying narratives into seven categories, based on existing definitions and data.Experiments showed that RoBERTa-large outperforms other methods, while GPT-4 Turbo can serve as a viable annotator for the task, thereby reducing human annotation costs. Our findings and insights provide guidance to automate climate-related ad analysis and lead to more scalable ad scrutiny.

Yejin Bang, Delong Chen, Nayeon Lee, Pascale Fung

We propose to measure political bias in LLMs by analyzing both the content and style of their generated content regarding political issues. Existing benchmarks and measures focus on gender and racial biases. However, political bias exists in LLMs and can lead to polarization and other harms in downstream applications. In order to provide transparency to users, we advocate that there should be fine-grained and explainable measures of political biases generated by LLMs. Our proposed measure looks at different political issues such as reproductive rights and climate change, at both the content (the substance of the generation) and the style (the lexical polarity) of such bias. We measured the political bias in eleven open-sourced LLMs and showed that our proposed framework is easily scalable to other topics and is explainable.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Nikolas Kirschstein, Yixuan Sun

Climate change exacerbates riverine floods, which occur with higher frequency and intensity than ever. The much-needed forecasting systems typically rely on accurate river discharge predictions. To this end, the SOTA data-driven approaches treat forecasting at spatially distributed gauge stations as isolated problems, even within the same river network. However, incorporating the known topology of the river network into the prediction model has the potential to leverage the adjacency relationship between gauges. Thus, we model river discharge for a network of gauging stations with GNNs and compare the forecasting performance achieved by different adjacency definitions. Our results show that the model fails to benefit from the river network topology information, both on the entire network and small subgraphs. The learned edge weights correlate with neither of the static definitions and exhibit no regular pattern. Furthermore, the GNNs struggle to predict sudden, narrow discharge spikes. Our work hints at a more general underlying phenomenon of neural prediction not always benefitting from graphical structure and may inspire a systematic study of the conditions under which this happens.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Jannis Bulian, Mike Schäfer, Afra Amini, Heidi Lam, Massimiliano Ciaramita, Ben Gaiarin, Michelle Chen Huebscher, Christian Buck, Niels Mede, Markus Leippold 等

As Large Language Models (LLMs) rise in popularity, it is necessary to assess their capability in critically relevant domains. We present a comprehensive evaluation framework, grounded in science communication research, to assess LLM responses to questions about climate change. Our framework emphasizes both presentational and epistemological adequacy, offering a fine-grained analysis of LLM generations spanning 8 dimensions and 30 issues. Our evaluation task is a real-world example of a growing number of challenging problems where AI can complement and lift human performance. We introduce a novel protocol for scalable oversight that relies on AI Assistance and raters with relevant education. We evaluate several recent LLMs on a set of diverse climate questions. Our results point to a significant gap between surface and epistemological qualities of LLMs in the realm of climate communication.