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826篇论文匹配“Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty”
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Chengrui (Ray) Qu, Christopher Yeh, Kishan Panaganti, Eric Mazumdar, Adam Wierman

Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) commonly adopts centralized training with decentralized execution, where value-factorization methods enforce the individual-global-maximum (IGM) principle so that decentralized greedy actions recover the team-optimal joint action. However, the reliability of this recipe in real-world settings remains uncertain due to environmental uncertainties arising from the sim-to-real gap, model mismatch, system noise. We address this gap by introducing Distributionally robust IGM (DrIGM), a principle that requires each agent's robust greedy action to align with the robust team-optimal joint action. We show that DrIGM holds for a novel definition of robust individual action values, which is compatible with decentralized greedy execution and yields a provable robustness guarantee for the whole system. Building on this foundation, we derive DrIGM-compliant robust variants of existing value-factorization architectures (e.g., VDN/QMIX/QTRAN) that (i) train on robust Q-targets, (ii) preserve scalability, and (iii) integrate seamlessly with existing codebases without bespoke per-agent reward shaping. Empirically, on high-fidelity SustainGym simulators and a StarCraft game environment, our methods consistently improve out-of-distribution performances.

Reinforcement Learning · Online

Jianfei Ma, Wee Sun Lee

At the boundary between the known and the unknown, an agent inevitably confronts the dilemma of whether to explore or to exploit. Epistemic uncertainty reflects such boundaries, representing systematic uncertainty due to limited knowledge. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm, $\texttt{EUBRL}$, which leverages epistemic guidance to achieve principled exploration. This guidance adaptively reduces per-step regret arising from estimation errors. We establish nearly minimax-optimal regret and sample complexity guarantees for a class of sufficiently expressive priors in infinite-horizon discounted MDPs. Empirically, we evaluate $\texttt{EUBRL}$ on tasks characterized by sparse rewards, long horizons, and stochasticity. Results demonstrate that $\texttt{EUBRL}$ achieves superior sample efficiency, scalability, and consistency.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Haishun Chen, Cai Xu, Jinlong Yu, Yilin Zhang, Ziyu Guan, Wei Zhao, Fangyuan Zhao, Xin Yang

Multi-view evidential learning harnesses diverse data sources to improve prediction performance and provide reliable uncertainty estimates. Recent advances have primarily focused on optimizing evidence fusion strategies, assuming that the evidence extracted from each view is naturally reliable for downstream integration. However, our empirical analysis reveals that samples tend to be assigned biased evidence to support data-rich classes, thereby rendering unfair uncertainty estimations. This motivates us to delve into a new Biased Evidential Multi-view Learning (BEML) problem. To this end, we propose Fairness-Aware Multi-view Evidential Learning (FAML) method to rectify biased evidence learning. Specifically, FAML introduces the training-trajectory-based adaptive prior into the construction of Dirichlet parameters, flexibly calibrating the initial support evidence assigned to each class during training. Furthermore, we incorporate a fairness constraint as a regularization term to alleviate bias in the evidence. In the multi-view fusion stage, we propose an opinion alignment mechanism to mitigate view-specific bias across views, thereby encouraging the integration of consistent and mutually supportive evidence. Theoretical analysis shows that FAML effectively achieves less biased evidence allocation. Extensive experiments on real-world multi-view datasets demonstrate the superiority of our FAML, in terms of prediction performance and uncertainty estimation.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Litian Liu, Reza Pourreza, Sunny Panchal, Apratim Bhattacharyya, Yubing Jian, Yao Qin, Roland Memisevic

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating plausible yet incorrect responses, known as hallucinations. Effectively detecting hallucinations is therefore crucial for the safe deployment of LLMs. Recent research has linked hallucinations to model uncertainty, suggesting that hallucinations can be detected by measuring dispersion over answer distributions obtained from multiple samples drawn from a model. While drawing from the distribution over tokens defined by the model is a natural way to obtain samples, in this work, we argue that it is sub-optimal for the purpose of detecting hallucinations. We show that detection can be improved significantly by taking into account model uncertainty in the Bayesian sense. To this end, we propose a very simple, training-free approach based on perturbing an appropriate subset of model parameters, or equivalently hidden unit activations, during sampling. We demonstrate that our approach significantly improves inference-time hallucination detection over standard sampling across diverse datasets, model architectures, and uncertainty metrics.

Jiashun Liu, Johan S Obando Ceron, Han Lu, Yancheng He, Weixun Wang, wenbo su, Bo Zheng, Pablo Samuel Castro, Aaron Courville, Ling Pan

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a central paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs) to elicit stronger reasoning. Yet, most recent RL for LLMs (RL4LLM) methods avoid explicit critics, replacing them with average advantage baselines. This shift is largely pragmatic: conventional value functions are computationally expensive to train at LLM scale and often fail under sparse rewards and long reasoning horizons. We revisit this bottleneck from an architectural perspective and introduce Asymmetric Proximal Policy Optimization (**AsyPPO**), a simple and scalable framework that restores the critic’s role while remaining efficient in large-model settings. **AsyPPO** employs a set of lightweight *mini-critics*, each trained on disjoint prompt shards. This design encourages diversity while preserving calibration, reducing value-estimation bias. Beyond robust estimation, **AsyPPO** leverages inter-critic uncertainty to refine the policy update: (i) masking advantages in states where critics agree and gradients add little learning signal, and (ii) filtering high-divergence states from entropy regularization, suppressing spurious exploration. Across multiple reasoning benchmarks, **AsyPPO** consistently improves learning stability and performance over strong baselines, e.g., GRPO, achieving performance gains of $> 6$% on *Qwen3-4b-Base* and about $3$% on *Qwen3-8b-Base* and *Qwen3-14b-Base* over classic PPO. Such results highlight the importance of architectural innovations in critics for scalable, efficient algorithms.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Maxime Bouscary, Jiawei Zhang, Saurabh Amin

Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization (CSBO) extends standard stochastic bilevel optimization (SBO) by incorporating context-dependent lower-level problems. CSBO problems are generally intractable since existing methods require solving a distinct lower-level problem for each sampled context, resulting in prohibitive sample and computational complexity, in addition to relying on impractical conditional sampling oracles. We propose a reduction framework that approximates the lower-level solutions using expressive basis functions, thereby decoupling the lower-level dependence on context and transforming CSBO into a standard SBO problem solvable using only joint samples from the context and noise distribution. First, we show that this reduction preserves hypergradient accuracy and yields an $\epsilon$-stationary solution to CSBO. Then, we relate the sample complexity of the reduced problem to simple metrics of the basis. This establishes sufficient criteria for a basis to yield $\epsilon$-stationary solutions with a near-optimal complexity of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-3})$, matching the best-known rate for standard SBO up to logarithmic factors. Moreover, we show that Chebyshev polynomials provide a concrete and efficient choice of basis that satisfies these criteria for a broad class of problems. Empirical results on inverse and hyperparameter optimization demonstrate that our approach outperforms CSBO baselines in convergence, sample efficiency, and memory usage.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Zihao Zhao, Christopher Yeh, Lingkai Kong, Kai Wang

Decision-focused learning (DFL) integrates predictive modeling and optimization by training predictors to optimize the downstream decision target rather than merely minimizing prediction error. To date, existing DFL methods typically rely on deterministic point predictions, which are often insufficient to capture the intrinsic stochasticity of real-world environments. To address this challenge, we propose the first diffusion-based DFL approach, which trains a diffusion model to represent the distribution of uncertain parameters and optimizes the decision by solving a stochastic optimization with samples drawn from the diffusion model. Our contributions are twofold. First, we formulate diffusion DFL using the reparameterization trick, enabling end-to-end training through diffusion. While effective, it is memory and compute-intensive due to the need to differentiate through the diffusion sampling process. Second, we propose a lightweight score function estimator that uses only several forward diffusion passes and avoids backpropagation through the sampling. This follows from our results that backpropagating through stochastic optimization can be approximated by a weighted score function formulation. We empirically show that our diffusion DFL approach consistently outperforms strong baselines in decision quality. The source code for all experiments is available at https://github.com/GT-KOALA/Diffusion_DFL.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Dawood Wasif, Terrence Moore, Jin-Hee Cho

Federated Learning (FL) has gained prominence in machine learning applications across critical domains, offering collaborative model training without centralized data aggregation. However, FL frameworks that protect privacy often sacrifice fairness and reliability; differential privacy reduces data leakage but hides sensitive attributes needed for bias correction, worsening performance gaps across demographic groups. This work explores the trade-off between privacy and fairness in FL-based object detection and introduces RESFL, an integrated solution optimizing both. RESFL incorporates adversarial privacy disentanglement and uncertainty-guided fairness-aware aggregation. The adversarial component uses a gradient reversal layer to remove sensitive attributes, reducing privacy risks while maintaining fairness. The uncertainty-aware aggregation employs an evidential neural network to weight client updates adaptively, prioritizing contributions with lower fairness disparities and higher confidence. This ensures robust and equitable FL model updates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RESFL in high-stakes autonomous vehicle scenarios, where it achieves high mAP on FACET and CARLA, reduces membership-inference attack success by 37%, reduces equality-of-opportunity gap by 17% relative to the FedAvg baseline, and maintains superior adversarial robustness. However, RESFL is inherently domain-agnostic and thus applicable to a broad range of application domains beyond autonomous driving.

Deyu Zou, Yongqiang Chen, Jianxiang Wang, Garry YANG, Mufei Li, Qing Da, James Cheng, Pan Li, Yu Gong

Active reasoning requires large language model (LLM) agents to interact with external sources and strategically gather information to solve problems in multiple turns. Central to this process is belief tracking: maintaining an accurate representation of the underlying state and uncertainty in understanding and solving the problem. However, due to limited reasoning capabilities, LLM-based agents often suffer belief deviation: their internal beliefs drift from the true problem state, leading to loss of state awareness and uninformative or repetitive actions. Once this happens, errors compound in the trajectories used for reinforcement learning (RL), leading to misattributed credits and limited exploration. To address this issue, we propose to track belief deviation and develop $\mathbf{T^3}$, a simple yet principled method that detects excessive deviation and truncates training trajectories to suppress uninformative tail effects. Hence, $\mathbf{T^3}$ preserves credits for informative prefixes and systematically improves policy optimization. Across 5 challenging tasks, $\mathbf{T^3}$ consistently enhances training stability and yields performance gains of up to 30 points while cutting token cost by up to 34%. These results highlight belief control as a key principle for building robust LLM agents capable of active reasoning.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Thomas Rupf, Marco Bagatella, Marin Vlastelica, Andreas Krause

Behavior Foundation Models (BFMs) are capable of retrieving high-performing policy for any reward function specified directly at test-time, commonly referred to as zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL). While this is a very efficient process in terms of compute, it can be less so in terms of data: as a standard assumption, BFMs require computing rewards over a non-negligible inference dataset, assuming either access to a functional form of rewards, or significant labeling efforts. To alleviate these limitations, we tackle the problem of task inference purely through interaction with the environment at test-time. We propose OpTI-BFM, an optimistic decision criterion that directly models uncertainty over reward functions and guides BFMs in data collection for task inference. Formally, we provide a regret bound for well- trained BFMs through a direct connection to upper-confidence algorithms for linear bandits. Empirically, we evaluate OpTI-BFM on established zero-shot benchmarks, and observe that it enables successor-features-based BFMs to identify and optimize an unseen reward function in a handful of episodes with minimal compute overhead.

Deyu Zou, Yongqiang Chen, Jianxiang Wang, Garry YANG, Mufei Li, Qing Da, James Cheng, Pan Li, Yu Gong

Active reasoning requires large language model (LLM) agents to interact with external sources and strategically gather information to solve problems in multiple turns. Central to this process is belief tracking: maintaining an accurate representation of the underlying state and uncertainty in understanding and solving the problem. However, due to limited reasoning capabilities, LLM-based agents often suffer belief deviation: their internal beliefs drift from the true problem state, leading to loss of state awareness and uninformative or repetitive actions. Once this happens, errors compound in the trajectories used for reinforcement learning (RL), leading to misattributed credits and limited exploration. To address this issue, we propose to track belief deviation and develop $\mathbf{T^3}$, a simple yet principled method that detects excessive deviation and truncates training trajectories to suppress uninformative tail effects. Hence, $\mathbf{T^3}$ preserves credits for informative prefixes and systematically improves policy optimization. Across 5 challenging tasks, $\mathbf{T^3}$ consistently enhances training stability and yields performance gains of up to 30 points while cutting token cost by up to 34%. These results highlight belief control as a key principle for building robust LLM agents capable of active reasoning.

Reinforcement Learning · Multi-agent

Zain Ulabedeen Farhat, Debamita Ghosh, George Atia, Yue Wang

Well-trained multi-agent systems can fail when deployed in real-world environments due to model mismatches between the training and deployment environments, caused by environment uncertainties including noise or adversarial attacks. Distributionally Robust Markov Games (DRMGs) enhance system resilience by optimizing for worst-case performance over a defined set of environmental uncertainties. However, current methods are limited by their dependence on simulators or large offline datasets, which are often unavailable. This paper pioneers the study of online learning in DRMGs, where agents learn directly from environmental interactions without prior data. We introduce the Multiplayer Optimistic Robust Nash Value Iteration (MORNAVI) algorithm and provide the first provable guarantees for this setting. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the algorithm achieves low regret and efficiently finds the optimal robust policy for uncertainty sets measured by Total Variation divergence and Kullback-Leibler divergence. These results establish a new, practical path toward developing truly robust multi-agent systems.

Theory · Learning Theory

Heesang Ann, Taehyun Hwang, Min-hwan Oh

Existing contextual multinomial logit (MNL) bandits model relevance-driven choice but ignore the potential benefits of within-assortment diversity, while submodular/combinatorial bandits encode diversity in rewards but lack structured choice probabilities. We bridge this gap with the *diversified multinomial logit* (DMNL) contextual bandit, which augments MNL choice probabilities with a generally submodular diversity function, thereby formalizing the relevance—diversity trade-off within a single model. Incorporating diversity renders exact MNL assortment optimization intractable. We propose a *white-box* UCB-based algorithm, `OFU-DMNL`, that constructs assortments item-wise by maximizing optimistic marginal gains, avoids black-box optimization oracles, and provides end-to-end guarantees. We show that `OFU-DMNL` achieves at least a $(1-\tfrac{1}{e+1})$-*approximate* regret bound $\tilde{O}\big(d \sqrt{T/K}\big)$, where $d$ is the context dimension, $K$ the maximum assortment size, and $T$ the horizon, and attains an improved approximation factor over standard submodular baselines. Experiments demonstrate consistent gains and, relative to exhaustive enumeration, comparable regret with substantially lower runtime. Overall, DMNL bandits provide a principled and practical foundation for diversity-aware assortment optimization under uncertainty, and `OFU-DMNL` offers a statistically and computationally efficient solution.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Huaiyuan Xiao, Shinji Ito

We consider submodular function minimization using a *dueling oracle*, a noisy pairwise comparison oracle that provides relative feedback on function values between two queried sets. The oracle's responses are governed by a *transfer function*, which characterizes the relationship between differences in function values and the parameters of the response distribution. For a linear transfer function, we propose an algorithm that achieves an error rate of $O(n^{\frac{3}{2}}/\sqrt{T})$, where $n$ is the size of the ground set and $T$ denotes the number of oracle calls. We establish a lower bound: Under the constraint that differences between queried sets are bounded by a constant, any algorithm incurs an error of at least $\Omega(n^{\frac{3}{2}}/\sqrt{T})$. Without such a constraint, the lower bound becomes $\Omega(n/\sqrt{T})$. These results show that our algorithm is optimal up to constant factors for constrained algorithms. For a sigmoid transfer function, we design an algorithm with an error rate of $O(n^{\frac{7}{5}}/T^{\frac{2}{5}})$, and establish lower bounds analogous to the linear case.

Social Aspects · Fairness, Equity, Justice and Safety

Rui Luo, Jie Bao, Xiaoyi Su, Wen Li, Suqun Cao

Current deep learning models for image segmentation often lack reliable uncertainty quantification, particularly at the image-specific level. While Conformal Risk Control (CRC) offers marginal statistical guarantees, achieving image-conditional coverage, which ensures prediction sets reliably capture ground truth for individual images, remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach to address this gap by learning image-adaptive thresholds for conformal image segmentation. We first propose AT (Adaptive Thresholding), which frames threshold prediction as a supervised regression task. Building upon the insights from AT, we then introduce COAT (Conditional Optimization for Adaptive Thresholding), an innovative end-to-end differentiable framework. COAT directly optimizes image-conditional coverage by using a soft approximation of the True Positive Rate (TPR) as its loss function, enabling direct gradient-based learning of optimal image-specific thresholds. This novel differentiable miscoverage loss is key to enhancing conditional coverage. Our methods provide a robust pathway towards more trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty estimates in image segmentation, offering improved conditional guarantees crucial for safety-critical applications. The code is available at https://github.com/bjbbbb/Conditional-Optimization-for-Adaptive-Thresholding.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Federico Cinus, Yuko Kuroki, Atsushi Miyauchi, Francesco Bonchi

We study the problem of minimizing polarization and disagreement in the Friedkin–Johnsen opinion dynamics model under incomplete information. Unlike prior work that assumes a static setting with full knowledge of agents' innate opinions, we address the more realistic online setting where innate opinions are unknown and must be learned through sequential observations. This novel setting, which naturally mirrors periodic interventions on social media platforms, is formulated as a regret minimization problem, establishing a key connection between algorithmic interventions on social media platforms and the theory of multi-armed bandits. In our formulation, a learner observes only a scalar feedback of the overall polarization and disagreement after an intervention. For this novel bandit problem, we propose a two-stage algorithm based on low-rank matrix bandits. The algorithm first performs subspace estimation to identify an underlying low-dimensional structure, and then employs a linear bandit algorithm within the compact dimensional representation derived from the estimated subspace. We show that our algorithm achieves the cumulative regret of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\big(\max(\tfrac{1}{\kappa},\sqrt{|V|})\sqrt{|V|T}\big)$ over time horizon $T$, where $V$ is the set of agents and $\kappa$ is a parameter dependent on the diversity of interventions. Empirical results validate that our algorithm significantly outperforms a linear bandit baseline in terms of both cumulative regret and running time.

Optimization · Non-Convex

jiajun li, Yixuan Li, Ran Hou, Yu Ding, Shisi Guan, Jiahui Duan, Xiongwei Han, Tao Zhong, Vincent Chau, Weiwei Wu 等

Model reduction, which aims to learn a simpler model of the original mixed integer linear programming (MILP), can solve large-scale MILP problems much faster. Most existing model reduction methods are based on variable reduction, which predicts a solution value for a subset of variables. From a dual perspective, constraint reduction that transforms a subset of inequality constraints into equalities can also reduce the complexity of MILP, but has been largely ignored. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel constraint-based model reduction approach for MILPs. Constraint-based MILP reduction has two challenges: 1) which inequality constraints are critical such that reducing them can accelerate MILP solving while preserving feasibility, and 2) how to predict these critical constraints efficiently. To identify critical constraints, we label the tight-constraints at the optimal solution as potential critical constraints and design an information theory-guided heuristic rule to select a subset of critical tight-constraints. Theoretical analyses indicate that our heuristic mechanism effectively identify the constraints most instrumental in reducing the solution space and uncertainty. To learn the critical tight-constraints, we propose a multi-modal representation that integrates information from both instance-level and abstract-level MILP formulations. The experimental results show that, compared to the state-of-the-art MILP solvers, our method improves the quality of the solution by over 50\% and reduces the computation time by 17.47\%.

Shangyu Xing, Siyuan Wang, Chenyuan Yang, Xin-Yu Dai, Xiang Ren

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), particularly with algorithms like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has proven highly effective in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, a critical bottleneck in current pipelines lies in the limited diversity of sampled trajectories during group rollouts. Homogeneous trajectories and their associated rewards would diminish the return signals for policy updates, thereby hindering effective policy learning. This lack of diversity stems primarily from token-level stochastic sampling, where local variations are likely to collapse into near-identical reasoning paths. To address this limitation, we propose Lookahead Tree-Based Rollouts (LATR), a novel rollout strategy designed to explicitly promotes trajectory-level diversity by enforcing branching into different candidate tokens likely to yield distinct continuations. Specifically, LATR iteratively operates in three stages: (1) branching at high-uncertainty generation steps, (2) performing lookahead simulation for each new branch, and (3) pruning branches that exhibits prolonged similarity during simulation. Compared with Stochastic Sampling, LATR accelerates policy learning by 131% on average and improves final pass@1 performance by 4.2% on both GRPO and Dynamic sAmpling Policy Optimization (DAPO) algorithms across different reasoning tasks. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/starreeze/latr.

Reinforcement Learning · Batch/Offline

Zhuohao Yu, Steven Wu, Adam Block

Inference-time compute scaling has emerged as a powerful paradigm for improving language model performance on a wide range of tasks, but the question of how best to use the additional compute remains open. A popular approach is *Best-of-$N$* (BoN) sampling, where $N$ candidate responses are generated, scored according to a reward model, and the highest-scoring response is selected. While this approach can improve performance, it is vulnerable to *reward hacking*, where performance degrades as $N$ increases due to the selection of responses that exploit imperfections in the reward model instead of genuinely improving generation quality. Prior attempts to mitigate reward hacking---via stronger reward models or heavy-handed distributional regularization---either fail to fully address over-optimization or are too conservative to exploit additional compute. In this work, we explore the principle of *pessimism* in reinforcement learning (RL), which uses lower confidence bounds on value estimates to avoid out-of-distribution (OOD) actions with uncertain reward estimates. Our approach, termed as *caution*, can be seen as the *reverse* of *curiosity*: where curiosity (e.g., via Random Network Distillation, RND) rewards prediction error as a signal of novelty, caution penalizes prediction error as a signal of distributional uncertainty. Practically, caution trains an error model on typical responses and uses its prediction error to lower reward estimates for atypical ones. Our extensive empirical evaluation demonstrates that caution is a simple, computationally efficient approach that substantially mitigates reward hacking in BoN sampling. We also provide a theoretical analysis in a simplified linear setting, which shows that caution provably improves over the standard BoN approach. Together, our results not only establish caution as a practical solution to reward hacking, but also provide evidence that curiosity-based approaches can be a general OOD detection technique in LLM settings.

Theory · Optimization

Jinjie Fang, Runwen You, Wanli Shi, Wenkang Wang, Ganyu Wang, Haozhen Zhang, Yi Chang, Bin Gu

Generative AI excels in various tasks through advanced language modeling techniques, with its performance heavily influenced by input prompts. This has driven significant research into prompt optimization, particularly in commercial generative AI platforms, where prompt optimization is treated as a black-box optimization problem. Most existing research on black-box prompt optimization primarily focuses on offline learning and overlooks the randomness in outputs. However, in real-world applications, black-box prompt optimization typically operates in an online learning setting, which remains largely unexplored, especially given the noisy outputs. To address these challenges, we propose an \textbf{A}daptive \textbf{O}nline \textbf{Z}eroth-order \textbf{P}rompt \textbf{T}uning (AOZPT) approach which integrates zeroth-order optimization with online learning in the non-convex setting. Specifically, we developed an uncertainty-scale-adjustment mechanism to mitigate the noise inherent in generative AI and the high variance associated with zeroth-order estimates. We conducted a comprehensive regret analysis of the AOZPT approach, and the results indicate that sublinear regret convergence is achievable. Extensive generative experiments demonstrate that AOZPT outperforms existing black-box prompt tuning methods, particularly in terms of stability in online scenarios.