Large language models hold significant potential for integrating various data types, such as text documents and database records, for advanced analytics. However, blending text and numerical data presents substantial challenges. LLMs need to process and cross-reference entities and numbers, handle data inconsistencies and redundancies, and develop planning capabilities such as building a working memory for managing complex data queries. In this paper, we introduce four novel tasks centered around sports data analytics to evaluate the numerical reasoning and information fusion capabilities of LLMs. These tasks involve providing LLMs with detailed, play-by-play sports game descriptions, then challenging them with adversarial scenarios such as new game rules, longer durations, scrambled narratives, and analyzing key statistics in game summaries. We conduct extensive experiments on NBA and NFL games to assess the performance of LLMs on these tasks. Our benchmark, SportsMetrics, introduces a new mechanism for assessing LLMs’ numerical reasoning and fusion skills.
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Efficient Adaptation in Mixed-Motive Environments via Hierarchical Opponent Modeling and Planning
PDF ↗Reinforcement Learning · Multi-agent
Despite the recent successes of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms, efficiently adapting to co-players in mixed-motive environments remains a significant challenge. One feasible approach is to hierarchically model co-players' behavior based on inferring their characteristics. However, these methods often encounter difficulties in efficient reasoning and utilization of inferred information. To address these issues, we propose Hierarchical Opponent modeling and Planning (HOP), a novel multi-agent decision-making algorithm that enables few-shot adaptation to unseen policies in mixed-motive environments. HOP is hierarchically composed of two modules: an opponent modeling module that infers others' goals and learns corresponding goal-conditioned policies, and a planning module that employs Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to identify the best response. Our approach improves efficiency by updating beliefs about others' goals both across and within episodes and by using information from the opponent modeling module to guide planning. Experimental results demonstrate that in mixed-motive environments, HOP exhibits superior few-shot adaptation capabilities when interacting with various unseen agents, and excels in self-play scenarios. Furthermore, the emergence of social intelligence during our experiments underscores the potential of our approach in complex multi-agent environments.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human thinking? Our work is aimed at crystallizing this intuitive concern, which is currently fragmented in the literature. First, we emphasize isolating the two phases of next-token prediction that are often conflated: autoregression during inference vs. teacher-forcing during training. We argue that the previously-identified problem of "exponential error accumulation" is a symptom of autoregressive inference. But more concerningly, we identify that teacher-forcing can let the model fit the training data by cheating, causing total in-distribution failure. We design a minimal planning task where empirically both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture fail in this manner - remarkably, despite the task being easy to learn. Overall, our work consolidates these and other essential arguments surrounding next-token prediction. We hope this effort can ground future discussions and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
Schrödinger Bridges (SB) have recently gained the attention of the ML community as a promising extension of classic diffusion models which is also interconnected to the Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT). Recent solvers for SB exploit the pervasive bridge matching procedures. Such procedures aim to recover a stochastic process transporting the mass between distributions given only a transport plan between them. In particular, given the EOT plan, these procedures can be adapted to solve SB. This fact is heavily exploited by recent works giving rives to matching-based SB solvers. The cornerstone here is recovering the EOT plan: recent works either use heuristical approximations (e.g., the minibatch OT) or establish iterative matching procedures which by the design accumulate the error during the training. We address these limitations and propose a novel procedure to learn SB which we call the **optimal Schrödinger bridge matching**. It exploits the optimal parameterization of the diffusion process and provably recovers the SB process **(a)** with a single bridge matching step and **(b)** with arbitrary transport plan as the input. Furthermore, we show that the optimal bridge matching objective coincides with the recently discovered energy-based modeling (EBM) objectives to learn EOT/SB. Inspired by this observation, we develop a light solver (which we call LightSB-M) to implement optimal matching in practice using the Gaussian mixture parameterization of the adjusted Schrödinger potential. We experimentally showcase the performance of our solver in a range of practical tasks.
Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL
Coverage path planning (CPP) is the problem of finding a path that covers the entire free space of a confined area, with applications ranging from robotic lawn mowing to search-and-rescue. When the environment is unknown, the path needs to be planned online while mapping the environment, which cannot be addressed by offline planning methods that do not allow for a flexible path space. We investigate how suitable reinforcement learning is for this challenging problem, and analyze the involved components required to efficiently learn coverage paths, such as action space, input feature representation, neural network architecture, and reward function. We propose a computationally feasible egocentric map representation based on frontiers, and a novel reward term based on total variation to promote complete coverage. Through extensive experiments, we show that our approach surpasses the performance of both previous RL-based approaches and highly specialized methods across multiple CPP variations.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
We argue that auto-regressive LLMs cannot, by themselves, do planning or self-verification (which is after all a form of reasoning), and shed some light on the reasons for misunderstandings in the literature. We will also argue that LLMs should be viewed as universal approximate knowledge sources that have much more meaningful roles to play in planning/reasoning tasks beyond simple front-end/back-end format translators. We present a vision of LLM-Modulo Frameworks that combine the strengths of LLMs with external model-based verifiers in a tighter bi-directional interaction regime. We will show how the models driving the external verifiers themselves can be acquired with the help of LLMs. We will also argue that rather than simply pipelining LLMs and symbolic components, this LLM-Modulo Framework provides a better neuro-symbolic approach that offers tighter integration between LLMs and symbolic components, and allows extending the scope of model-based planning/reasoning regimes towards more flexible knowledge, problem and preference specifications.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Visually-conditioned language models (VLMs) have seen growing adoption in applications such as visual dialogue, scene understanding, and robotic task planning; adoption that has fueled a wealth of new models such as LLaVa, InstructBLIP, and PaLI-3. Despite the volume of new releases, key design decisions around image preprocessing, architecture, and optimization are under-explored, making it challenging to understand what factors account for model performance – a challenge further complicated by the lack of objective, consistent evaluations. To address these gaps, we first compile a suite of standardized evaluations spanning visual question answering, object localization, and challenge sets that probe properties such as hallucination; evaluations that provide fine-grained insight VLM capabilities. Second, we rigorously investigate VLMs along key design axes, including pretrained visual representations and training from base vs. instruct-tuned language models, amongst others. We couple our analysis with three resource contributions: (1) a unified framework for evaluating VLMs, (2) optimized, flexible training code, and (3) checkpoints for all models, including a family of VLMs at the 7-13B scale that strictly outperform InstructBLIP and LLaVa v1.5, the state-of-the-art in open VLMs.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Multi-modality Models (LMMs) have demonstrated remarkable decision masking capabilities on a variety of tasks. However, they inherently operate planning within the language space, lacking the vision and spatial imagination ability. In contrast, humans utilize both left and right hemispheres of the brain for language and visual planning during the thinking process. Therefore, we introduce a novel vision-language planning framework in this work to perform concurrent visual and language planning for tasks with inputs of any form. Our framework incorporates visual planning to capture intricate environmental details, while language planning enhances the logical coherence of the overall system. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework across vision-language tasks, vision-only tasks, and language-only tasks. The results demonstrate the superior performance of our approach, indicating that the integration of visual and language planning yields better contextually aware task execution.
Learning Temporal Distances: Contrastive Successor Features Can Provide a Metric Structure for Decision-Making
PDF ↗Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL
Temporal distances lie at the heart of many algorithms for planning, control, and reinforcement learning that involve reaching goals, allowing one to estimate the transit time between two states. However, prior attempts to define such temporal distances in stochastic settings have been stymied by an important limitation: these prior approaches do not satisfy the triangle inequality. This is not merely a definitional concern, but translates to an inability to generalize and find shortest paths. In this paper, we build on prior work in contrastive learning and quasimetrics to show how successor features learned by contrastive learning (after a change of variables) form a temporal distance that does satisfy the triangle inequality, even in stochastic settings. Importantly, this temporal distance is computationally efficient to estimate, even in high-dimensional and stochastic settings. Experiments in controlled settings and benchmark suites demonstrate that an RL algorithm based on these new temporal distances exhibits combinatorial generalization (i.e., "stitching") and can sometimes learn more quickly than prior methods, including those based on quasimetrics.
Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning
In many real-world applications, it is hard to provide a reward signal in each step of a Reinforcement Learning (RL) process and more natural to give feedback when an episode ends. To this end, we study the recently proposed model of RL with Aggregate Bandit Feedback (RL-ABF), where the agent only observes the sum of rewards at the end of an episode instead of each reward individually. Prior work studied RL-ABF only in tabular settings, where the number of states is assumed to be small. In this paper, we extend ABF to linear function approximation and develop two efficient algorithms with near-optimal regret guarantees: a value-based optimistic algorithm built on a new randomization technique with a Q-functions ensemble, and a policy optimization algorithm that uses a novel hedging scheme over the ensemble.
Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning
Offline reinforcement learning (RL), which seeks to learn an optimal policy using offline data, has garnered significant interest due to its potential in critical applications where online data collection is infeasible or expensive. This work explores the benefit of federated learning for offline RL, aiming at collaboratively leveraging offline datasets at multiple agents. Focusing on finite-horizon episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs), we design FedLCB-Q, a variant of the popular model-free Q-learning algorithm tailored for federated offline RL. FedLCB-Q updates local Q-functions at agents with novel learning rate schedules and aggregates them at a central server using importance averaging and a carefully designed pessimistic penalty term. Our sample complexity analysis reveals that, with appropriately chosen parameters and synchronization schedules, FedLCB-Q achieves linear speedup in terms of the number of agents without requiring high-quality datasets at individual agents, as long as the local datasets collectively cover the state-action space visited by the optimal policy, highlighting the power of collaboration in the federated setting. In fact, the sample complexity almost matches that of the single-agent counterpart, as if all the data are stored at a central location, up to polynomial factors of the horizon length. Furthermore, FedLCB-Q is communication-efficient, where the number of communication rounds is only linear with respect to the horizon length up to logarithmic factors.
Reinforcement Learning
We propose a novel model-based reinforcement learning algorithm---Dynamics Learning and predictive control with Parameterized Actions (DLPA)---for Parameterized Action Markov Decision Processes (PAMDPs). The agent learns a parameterized-action-conditioned dynamics model and plans with a modified Model Predictive Path Integral control. We theoretically quantify the difference between the generated trajectory and the optimal trajectory during planning in terms of the value they achieved through the lens of Lipschitz Continuity. Our empirical results on several standard benchmarks show that our algorithm achieves superior sample efficiency and asymptotic performance than state-of-the-art PAMDP methods.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Recent works like Tree-of-Thought (ToT) and Reasoning via Planning (RAP) aim to augment the multi-step reasoning capabilities of LLMs by using tree-search algorithms. These methods rely on prompting a pre-trained model to serve as a value function and focus on problems with low search depth. As a result, these methods cannot benefit from in-domain training and only rely on pretraining process — they will not work in domains where the pre-trained LLM does not have enough knowledge to serve as an effective value function or in domains that require long-horizon planning. To address these limitations, we present an AlphaZero-like tree-search learning framework for LLMs (termed TS-LLM), systematically illustrating how tree-search with a learned value function can guide LLM decoding. TS-LLM distinguishes itself in two key ways. (1) Leveraging a learned value function and AlphaZero-like algorithms, our approach can be generally adaptable to a wide range of tasks, language models of any size, and tasks of varying search depths. (2) Our approach can guide LLMs during both inference and training, iteratively improving the LLMs. Empirical results across reasoning, planning, alignment, and decision-making tasks show that TS-LLM outperforms existing approaches and can handle trees with a depth of 64.
Optimization · Everything Else
Optimal Transport (OT) has fueled machine learning (ML) across many domains. When paired data measurements $(\boldsymbol{\mu}, \boldsymbol{\nu})$ are coupled to covariates, a challenging conditional distribution learning setting arises. Existing approaches for learning a *global* transport map parameterized through a potentially unseen context utilize Neural OT and largely rely on Brenier's theorem. Here, we propose a first-of-its-kind quantum computing formulation for amortized optimization of contextualized transportation plans. We exploit a direct link between doubly stochastic matrices and unitary operators thus unravelling a natural connection between OT and quantum computation. We verify our method (QontOT) on synthetic and real data by predicting variations in cell type distributions conditioned on drug dosage. Importantly we conduct a 24-qubit hardware experiment on a task challenging for classical computers and report a performance that cannot be matched with our classical neural OT approach. In sum, this is a first step toward learning to predict contextualized transportation plans through quantum computing.
Reinforcement Learning · Batch/Offline
Despite the recent advancements in offline RL, no unified algorithm could achieve superior performance across a broad range of tasks. Offline *value function learning*, in particular, struggles with sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks due to the difficulty of solving credit assignment and extrapolation errors that accumulates as the horizon of the task grows. On the other hand, models that can perform well in long-horizon tasks are designed specifically for goal-conditioned tasks, which commonly perform worse than value function learning methods on short-horizon, dense-reward scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose a hierarchical planner designed for offline RL called PlanDQ. PlanDQ incorporates a diffusion-based planner at the high level, named D-Conductor, which guides the low-level policy through sub-goals. At the low level, we used a Q-learning based approach called the Q-Performer to accomplish these sub-goals. Our experimental results suggest that PlanDQ can achieve superior or competitive performance on D4RL continuous control benchmark tasks as well as AntMaze, Kitchen, and Calvin as long-horizon tasks.
Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else
Predicting the future trajectory of surrounding objects is inherently uncertain and vital in the safe and reliable planning of autonomous systems such as in self-driving cars. Although trajectory prediction models have become increasingly sophisticated in dealing with the complexities of spatiotemporal data, the evaluation methods used to assess these models have not kept pace. "Minimum of N" is a common family of metrics used to assess the rich outputs of such models. We critically examine the Minimum of N within the proper scoring rules framework to show that it is not strictly proper and demonstrate how that could lead to a misleading assessment of multimodal trajectory predictions. As an alternative, we propose using Energy Score-based evaluation measures, leveraging their proven propriety for a more reliable evaluation of trajectory distribution predictions.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
Popular prompt strategies like Chain-of-Thought Prompting can dramatically improve the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in various domains. However, such hand-crafted prompt-strategies are often sub-optimal. In this paper, we present Promptbreeder, a general-purpose self-referential self-improvement mechanism that evolves and adapts prompts for a given domain. Driven by an LLM, Promptbreeder mutates a population of task-prompts, evaluates them for fitness on a training set, and repeats this process over multiple generations to evolve task-prompts. Crucially, the mutation of these task-prompts is governed by mutation-prompts that the LLM generates and improves throughout evolution in a self-referential way. That is, Promptbreeder is not just improving task-prompts, but it is also improving the mutation-prompts that improve these task-prompts. Promptbreeder outperforms state-of-the-art prompt strategies such as Chain-of-Thought and Plan-and-Solve Prompting on commonly used arithmetic and commonsense reasoning benchmarks. Furthermore, Promptbreeder is able to evolve intricate task-prompts for the challenging problem of hate speech classification.
Deep Learning · Large Language Models
The recent development on large multimodal models (LMMs), especially GPT-4V(ision) and Gemini, has been quickly expanding the capability boundaries of multimodal models beyond traditional tasks like image captioning and visual question answering. In this work, we explore the potential of LMMs like GPT-4V as a generalist web agent that can follow natural language instructions to complete tasks on any given website. We propose SEEACT, a generalist web agent that harnesses the power of LMMs for integrated visual understanding and acting on the web. We evaluate on the recent MIND2WEB benchmark. In addition to standard offline evaluation on cached websites, we enable a new online evaluation setting by developing a tool that allows running web agents on live websites. We show that GPT-4V presents a great potential for web agents---it can successfully complete 51.1% of the tasks on live websites if we manually ground its textual plans into actions on the websites. This substantially outperforms text-only LLMs like GPT-4 or smaller models (FLAN-T5 and BLIP-2) specifically fine-tuned for web agents. However, grounding still remains a major challenge. Existing LMM grounding strategies like set-of-mark prompting turns out to be not effective for web agents, and the best grounding strategy we develop in this paper leverages both the HTML structure and visuals. Yet, there is still a substantial gap with oracle grounding, leaving ample room for further improvement. All code, data, and evaluation tools are available at https://github.com/OSU-NLP-Group/SeeAct.
Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning
Skills are temporal abstractions that are intended to improve reinforcement learning (RL) performance through hierarchical RL. Despite our intuition about the properties of an environment that make skills useful, a precise characterization has been absent. We provide the first such characterization, focusing on the utility of deterministic skills in deterministic sparse-reward environments with finite action spaces. We show theoretically and empirically that RL performance gain from skills is worse in environments where solutions to states are less compressible. Additional theoretical results suggest that skills benefit exploration more than they benefit learning from existing experience, and that using unexpressive skills such as macroactions may worsen RL performance. We hope our findings can guide research on automatic skill discovery and help RL practitioners better decide when and how to use skills.
Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders
Schrödinger bridge (SB) has emerged as the go-to method for optimizing transportation plans in diffusion models. However, SB requires estimating the intractable forward score functions, inevitably resulting in the (costly) implicit training loss based on simulated trajectories. To improve the scalability while preserving efficient transportation plans, we leverage variational inference to linearize the forward score functions (variational scores) of SB and restore *simulation-free* properties in training backward scores. We propose the variational Schrödinger diffusion model (VSDM), where the forward process is a multivariate diffusion and the variational scores are adaptively optimized for efficient transport. Theoretically, we use stochastic approximation to prove the convergence of the variational scores and show the convergence of the adaptively generated samples based on the optimal variational scores. Empirically, we test the algorithm in simulated examples and observe that VSDM is efficient in generations of anisotropic shapes and yields straighter sample trajectories compared to the single-variate diffusion. We also verify the scalability of the algorithm in real-world data and achieve competitive unconditional generation performance in CIFAR10 and conditional generation in time series modeling. Notably, VSDM no longer depends on warm-up initializations required by SB.