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Theory · Active Learning and Interactive Learning

Jonas Hübotter, Bhavya, Lenart Treven, Yarden As, Andreas Krause

We study a generalization of classical active learning to real-world settings with concrete prediction targets where sampling is restricted to an accessible region of the domain, while prediction targets may lie outside this region.We analyze a family of decision rules that sample adaptively to minimize uncertainty about prediction targets.We are the first to show, under general regularity assumptions, that such decision rules converge uniformly to the smallest possible uncertainty obtainable from the accessible data.We demonstrate their strong sample efficiency in two key applications: active fine-tuning of large neural networks and safe Bayesian optimization, where they achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Time Series

Chengtao Jian, Kai Yang, Yang Jiao

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization in machine learning is a burgeoning area of study. Its primary goal is to enhance the adaptability and resilience of machine learning models when faced with new, unseen, and potentially adversarial data that significantly diverges from their original training datasets. In this paper, we investigate time series OOD generalization via pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs). We first propose a novel \textbf{T}ri-level learning framework for \textbf{T}ime \textbf{S}eries \textbf{O}OD generalization, termed TTSO, which considers both sample-level and group-level uncertainties. This formula offers a fresh theoretic perspective for formulating and analyzing OOD generalization problem. In addition, we provide a theoretical analysis to justify this method is well motivated. We then develop a stratified localization algorithm tailored for this tri-level optimization problem, theoretically demonstrating the guaranteed convergence of the proposed algorithm. Our analysis also reveals that the iteration complexity to obtain an $\epsilon$-stationary point is bounded by O($\frac{1}{\epsilon^{2}}$). Extensive experiments on real-world datasets have been conducted to elucidate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Bhavya, Lenart Treven, Florian Dorfler, Stelian Coros, Andreas Krause

We study the problem of nonepisodic reinforcement learning (RL) for nonlinear dynamical systems, where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent has to learn from a single trajectory, i.e., without resets. We propose **N**on**e**pisodic **O**ptistmic **RL** (NeoRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. NeoRL uses well-calibrated probabilistic models and plans optimistically w.r.t. the epistemic uncertainty about the unknown dynamics. Under continuity and bounded energy assumptions on the system, weprovide a first-of-its-kind regret bound of $\mathcal{O}(\beta_T \sqrt{T \Gamma_T})$ for general nonlinear systems with Gaussian process dynamics. We compare NeoRL to other baselines on several deep RL environments and empirically demonstrate that NeoRL achieves the optimal average cost while incurring the least regret.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Bo Lin, Erick Delage, Timothy Chan

Inverse optimization has been increasingly used to estimate unknown parameters in an optimization model based on decision data. We show that such a point estimation is insufficient in a prescriptive setting where the estimated parameters are used to prescribe new decisions. The prescribed decisions may be low-quality and misaligned with human intuition and thus are unlikely to be adopted. To tackle this challenge, we propose conformal inverse optimization, which seeks to learn an uncertainty set for the unknown parameters and then solve a robust optimization model to prescribe new decisions. Under mild assumptions, we show that our method enjoys provable guarantees on solution quality, as evaluated using both the ground-truth parameters and the decision maker's perception of the unknown parameters. Our method demonstrates strong empirical performance compared to classic inverse optimization.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Jonathan Kelner, Jerry Li, Allen Liu, Aaron Sidford, Kevin Tian

We consider the well-studied problem of completing a rank-$r$, $\mu$-incoherent matrix $\mathbf{M} \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$ from incomplete observations. We focus on this problem in the semi-random setting where each entry is independently revealed with probability at least $p = \frac{\textup{poly}(r, \mu, \log d)}{d}$. Whereas multiple nearly-linear time algorithms have been established in the more specialized fully-random setting where each entry is revealed with probablity exactly $p$, the only known nearly-linear time algorithm in the semi-random setting is due to [CG18], whose sample complexity has a polynomial dependence on the inverse accuracy and condition number and thus cannot achieve high-accuracy recovery. Our main result is the first high-accuracy nearly-linear time algorithm for solving semi-random matrix completion, and an extension to the noisy observation setting.Our result builds upon the recent short-flat decomposition framework of [KLLST23a, KLLST23b] and leverages fast algorithms for flow problems on graphs to solve adaptive reweighting subproblems efficiently.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Dongyan Lucy Huo, Yixuan Zhang, Yudong Chen, Qiaomin Xie

In this work, we investigate stochastic approximation (SA) with Markovian data and nonlinear updates under constant stepsize $\alpha>0$. Existing work has primarily focused on either i.i.d. data or linear update rules. We take a new perspective and carefully examine the simultaneous presence of Markovian dependency of data and nonlinear update rules, delineating how the interplay between these two structures leads to complications that are not captured by prior techniques. By leveraging the smoothness and recurrence properties of the SA updates, we develop a fine-grained analysis of the correlation between the SA iterates $\theta_k$ and Markovian data $x_k$. This enables us to overcome the obstacles in existing analysis and establish for the first time the weak convergence of the joint process $(x_k, \theta_k)$. Furthermore, we present a precise characterization of the asymptotic bias of the SA iterates, given by $\mathbb{E}[\theta_\infty]-\theta^\ast=\alpha(b_\textup{m}+b_\textup{n}+b_\textup{c})+\mathcal{O}(\alpha^{3/2})$. Here, $b_\textup{m}$ is associated with the Markovian noise, $b_\textup{n}$ is tied to the nonlinearity of the SA operator, and notably, $b_\textup{c}$ represents a multiplicative interaction between the Markovian noise and the nonlinearity of the operator, which is absent in previous works. As a by-product of our analysis, we derive finite-time bounds on higher moment $\mathbb{E}[||\theta_k-\theta^\ast||^{2p}]$ and present non-asymptotic geometric convergence rates for the iterates, along with a Central Limit Theorem.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Tongxin Li, Hao Liu, Yisong Yue

Uncertain perturbations in dynamical systems often arise from diverse resources, represented by latent components. The predictions for these components, typically generated by "black-box" machine learning tools, are prone to inaccuracies. To tackle this challenge, we introduce DISC, a novel policy that learns a confidence parameter online to harness the potential of accurate predictions while also mitigating the impact of erroneous forecasts. When predictions are precise, DISC leverages this information to achieve near-optimal performance. Conversely, in the case of significant prediction errors, it still has a worst-case competitive ratio guarantee. We provide competitive ratio bounds for DISC under both linear mixing of latent variables as well as a broader class of mixing functions. Our results highlight a first-of-its-kind "best-of-both-worlds" integration of machine-learned predictions, thus lead to a near-optimal consistency and robustness tradeoff, which provably improves what can be obtained without learning the confidence parameter. We validate the applicability of DISC across a spectrum of practical scenarios.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Yuko Kuroki, Atsushi Miyauchi, Francesco Bonchi, Wei Chen

We study a general clustering setting in which we have $n$ elements to be clustered, and we aim to perform as few queries as possible to an oracle that returns a noisy sample of the weighted similarity between two elements. Our setting encompasses many application domains in which the similarity function is costly to compute and inherently noisy. We introduce two novel formulations of online learning problems rooted in the paradigm of Pure Exploration in Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandits (PE-CMAB): fixed confidence and fixed budget settings. For both settings, we design algorithms that combine a sampling strategy with a classic approximation algorithm for correlation clustering and study their theoretical guarantees. Our results are the first examples of polynomial-time algorithms that work for the case of PE-CMAB in which the underlying offline optimization problem is NP-hard.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Zifan Wang, Yi Shen, Michael Zavlanos, Karl H. Johansson

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) accounts for uncertainty in data distributions by optimizing the model performance against the worst possible distribution within an ambiguity set. In this paper, we propose a DRO framework that relies on a new distance inspired by Unbalanced Optimal Transport (UOT). The proposed UOT distance employs a soft penalization term instead of hard constraints, enabling the construction of an ambiguity set that is more resilient to outliers. Under smoothness conditions, we establish strong duality of the proposed DRO problem. Moreover, we introduce a computationally efficient Lagrangian penalty formulation for which we show that strong duality also holds. Finally, we provide empirical results that demonstrate that our method offers improved robustness to outliers and is computationally less demanding for regression and classification tasks.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Benedikt Böck, Sadaf Syed, Wolfgang Utschick

This work addresses the fundamental linear inverse problem in compressive sensing (CS) by introducing a new type of regularizing generative prior. Our proposed method utilizes ideas from classical dictionary-based CS and, in particular, sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), to integrate a strong regularization towards sparse solutions. At the same time, by leveraging the notion of conditional Gaussianity, it also incorporates the adaptability from generative models to training data. However, unlike most state-of-the-art generative models, it is able to learn from a few compressed and noisy data samples and requires no optimization algorithm for solving the inverse problem. Additionally, similar to Dirichlet prior networks, our model parameterizes a conjugate prior enabling its application for uncertainty quantification. We support our approach theoretically through the concept of variational inference and validate it empirically using different types of compressible signals.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Ilgee Hong, Zichong Li, Alexander Bukharin, Yixiao Li, Haoming Jiang, Tianbao Yang, Tuo Zhao

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a prevalent approach to align AI systems with human values by learning rewards from human preference data. Due to various reasons, however, such data typically takes the form of rankings over pairs of trajectory segments, which fails to capture the varying strengths of preferences across different pairs. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive preference loss, underpinned by distributionally robust optimization (DRO), designed to address this uncertainty in preference strength. By incorporating an adaptive scaling parameter into the loss for each pair, our method increases the flexibility of the reward function. Specifically, it assigns small scaling parameters to pairs with ambiguous preferences, leading to more comparable rewards, and large scaling parameters to those with clear preferences for more distinct rewards. Computationally, our proposed loss function is strictly convex and univariate with respect to each scaling parameter, enabling its efficient optimization through a simple second-order algorithm. Our method is versatile and can be readily adapted to various preference optimization frameworks, including direct preference optimization (DPO). Our experiments with robotic control and natural language generation with large language models (LLMs) show that our method not only improves policy performance but also aligns reward function selection more closely with policy optimization, simplifying the hyperparameter tuning process.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Jose Blanchet, Jiajin Li, Markus Pelger, Greg Zanotti

In this paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework to detect outliers using optimal transport with a concave cost function. Conventional outlier detection approaches typically use a two-stage procedure: first, outliers are detected and removed, and then estimation is performed on the cleaned data. However, this approach does not inform outlier removal with the estimation task, leaving room for improvement. To address this limitation, we propose an automatic outlier rectification mechanism that integrates rectification and estimation within a joint optimization framework. We take the first step to utilize the optimal transport distance with a concave cost function to construct a rectification set in the space of probability distributions. Then, we select the best distribution within the rectification set to perform the estimation task. Notably, the concave cost function we introduced in this paper is the key to making our estimator effectively identify the outlier during the optimization process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over conventional approaches in simulations and empirical analyses for mean estimation, least absolute regression, and the fitting of option implied volatility surfaces.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Pei Xiao, Zizhen Zhang, Jinbiao Chen, Jiahai Wang, Zhenzhen Zhang

We consider the robust routing problem with uncertain travel times under the min-max regret criterion, which represents an extended and robust version of the classic traveling salesman problem (TSP) and vehicle routing problem (VRP). The general budget uncertainty set is employed to capture the uncertainty, which provides the capability to control the conservatism of obtained solutions and covers the commonly used interval uncertainty set as a special case. The goal is to obtain a robust solution that minimizes the maximum deviation from the optimal routing time in the worst-case scenario. Given the significant advancements and broad applications of neural combinatorial optimization methods in recent years, we present our initial attempt to combine neural approaches for solving this problem. We propose a dual multi-head cross attention mechanism to extract problem features represented by the inputted uncertainty sets. To tackle the built-in maximization problem, we derive the regret value by invoking a pre-trained model, subsequently utilizing it as the reward during the model training. Our experimental results on the robust TSP and VRP demonstrate the efficacy of our neural combinatorial optimization method, showcasing its ability to efficiently handle the robust routing problem of various sizes within a shorter time compared with alternative heuristic approaches.

Theory · Game Theory

Nivasini Ananthakrishnan, Nika Haghtalab, Chara Podimata, Kunhe Yang

When learning in strategic environments, a key question is whether agents can overcome uncertainty about their preferences to achieve outcomes they could have achieved absent any uncertainty. Can they do this solely through interactions with each other? We focus this question on the ability of agents to attain the value of their Stackelberg optimal strategy and study the impact of information asymmetry. We study repeated interactions in fully strategic environments where players' actions are decided based on learning algorithms that take into account their observed histories and knowledge of the game. We study the pure Nash equilibria (PNE) of a meta-game where players choose these algorithms as their actions. We demonstrate that if one player has perfect knowledge about the game, then any initial informational gap persists. That is, while there is always a PNE in which the informed agent achieves her Stackelberg value, there is a game where no PNE of the meta-game allows the partially informed player to achieve her Stackelberg value. On the other hand, if both players start with some uncertainty about the game, the quality of information alone does not determine which agent can achieve her Stackelberg value. In this case, the concept of information asymmetry becomes nuanced and depends on the game's structure. Overall, our findings suggest that repeated strategic interactions alone cannot facilitate learning effectively enough to earn an uninformed player her Stackelberg value.

Fairness

Eric Balkanski, Will Ma, Andreas Maggiori

Algorithms with predictions is a recent framework for decision-making under uncertainty that leverages the power of machine-learned predictions without making any assumption about their quality. The goal in this framework is for algorithms to achieve an improved performance when the predictions are accurate while maintaining acceptable guarantees when the predictions are erroneous. A serious concern with algorithms that use predictions is that these predictions can be biased and, as a result, cause the algorithm to make decisions that are deemed unfair. We show that this concern manifests itself in the classical secretary problem in the learning-augmented setting---the state-of-the-art algorithm can have zero probability of accepting the best candidate, which we deem unfair, despite promising to accept a candidate whose expected value is at least $\max\{\Omega (1) , 1 - O(\varepsilon)\}$ times the optimal value, where $\varepsilon$ is the prediction error.We show how to preserve this promise while also guaranteeing to accept the best candidate with probability $\Omega(1)$. Our algorithm and analysis are based on a new ``pegging'' idea that diverges from existing works and simplifies/unifies some of their results. Finally, we extend to the $k$-secretary problem and complement our theoretical analysis with experiments.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Nicola Bariletto, Nhat Ho

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample performance due to distributional uncertainty. In the spirit of distributionally robust optimization, we propose a novel robust criterion by combining insights from Bayesian nonparametric (i.e., Dirichlet process) theory and a recent decision-theoretic model of smooth ambiguity-averse preferences. First, we highlight novel connections with standard regularized empirical risk minimization techniques, among which Ridge and LASSO regressions. Then, we theoretically demonstrate the existence of favorable finite-sample and asymptotic statistical guarantees on the performance of the robust optimization procedure. For practical implementation, we propose and study tractable approximations of the criterion based on well-known Dirichlet process representations. We also show that the smoothness of the criterion naturally leads to standard gradient-based numerical optimization. Finally, we provide insights into the workings of our method by applying it to a variety of tasks based on simulated and real datasets.

Reinforcement Learning · Everything Else

Xun Shen, Shuo Jiang, Akifumi Wachi, Kazumune Hashimoto, Sebastien Gros

Safe reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising approach for many real-world decision-making problems where ensuring safety is a critical necessity. In safe RL research, while expected cumulative safety constraints (ECSCs) are typically the first choices, chance constraints are often more pragmatic for incorporating safety under uncertainties. This paper proposes a \textit{flipping-based policy} for Chance-Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CCMDPs). The flipping-based policy selects the next action by tossing a potentially distorted coin between two action candidates. The probability of the flip and the two action candidates vary depending on the state. We establish a Bellman equation for CCMDPs and further prove the existence of a flipping-based policy within the optimal solution sets. Since solving the problem with joint chance constraints is challenging in practice, we then prove that joint chance constraints can be approximated into Expected Cumulative Safety Constraints (ECSCs) and that there exists a flipping-based policy in the optimal solution sets for constrained MDPs with ECSCs. As a specific instance of practical implementations, we present a framework for adapting constrained policy optimization to train a flipping-based policy. This framework can be applied to other safe RL algorithms. We demonstrate that the flipping-based policy can improve the performance of the existing safe RL algorithms under the same limits of safety constraints on Safety Gym benchmarks.

Interpretability

Yipei Wang, Jeffrey Siskind, Xiaoqian Wang

Uncertainty is introduced in optimized DNNs through stochastic algorithms, forming specific distributions. Training models can be seen as random sampling from this distribution of optimized models. In this work, we study the distribution of optimized DNNs as a family of functions by leveraging a pointwise approach. We focus on the input saliency maps, as the input gradient field is decisive to the models' mathematical essence. Our investigation of saliency maps reveals a counter-intuitive trend: two stochastically optimized models tend to resemble each other more as either of their capacities increases. Therefore, we hypothesize several properties of these distributions, suggesting that (1) Within the same model architecture (e.g., CNNs, ResNets), different family variants (e.g., varying capacities) tend to align in terms of their population mean directions of the input salience. And (2) the distributions of optimized models follow a convergence trend to their shared population mean as the capacity increases. Furthermore, we also propose semi-parametric distributions based on the Saw distribution to model the convergence trend, satisfying all the counter-intuitive observations. Our experiments shed light on the significant implications of our hypotheses in various application domains, including black-box attacks, deep ensembles, etc. These findings not only enhance our understanding of DNN behaviors but also offer valuable insights for their practical application in diverse areas of deep learning.

Optimization · Large Scale, Parallel and Distributed

Hao Zhang, Chenglin Li, Nuowen Kan, Ziyang Zheng, Wenrui Dai, Junni Zou, Hongkai Xiong

Most of existing federated learning (FL) formulation is treated as a point-estimate of models, inherently prone to overfitting on scarce client-side data with overconfident decisions. Though Bayesian inference can alleviate this issue, a direct posterior inference at clients may result in biased local posterior estimates due to data heterogeneity, leading to a sub-optimal global posterior. From an information-theoretic perspective, we propose FedMDMI, a federated posterior inference framework based on model-data mutual information (MI). Specifically, a global model-data MI term is introduced as regularization to enforce the global model to learn essential information from the heterogeneous local data, alleviating the bias caused by data heterogeneity and hence enhancing generalization. To make this global MI tractable, we decompose it into local MI terms at the clients, converting the global objective with MI regularization into several locally optimizable objectives based on local data. For these local objectives, we further show that the optimal local posterior is a Gibbs posterior, which can be efficiently sampled with stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics methods. Finally, at the server, we approximate sampling from the global Gibbs posterior by simply averaging samples from the local posteriors. Theoretical analysis provides a generalization bound for FL w.r.t. the model-data MI, which, at different levels of regularization, represents a federated version of the bias-variance trade-off. Experimental results demonstrate a better generalization behavior with better calibrated uncertainty estimates of FedMDMI.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Michael Yao, Yimeng Zeng, Hamsa Bastani, Jacob Gardner, James Gee, Osbert Bastani

Offline model-based optimization seeks to optimize against a learned surrogate model without querying the true oracle objective function during optimization. Such tasks are commonly encountered in protein design, robotics, and clinical medicine where evaluating the oracle function is prohibitively expensive. However, inaccurate surrogate model predictions are frequently encountered along offline optimization trajectories. To address this limitation, we propose *generative adversarial model-based optimization* using **adaptive source critic regularization (aSCR)**—a task- and optimizer- agnostic framework for constraining the optimization trajectory to regions of the design space where the surrogate function is reliable. We propose a computationally tractable algorithm to dynamically adjust the strength of this constraint, and show how leveraging aSCR with standard Bayesian optimization outperforms existing methods on a suite of offline generative design tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/michael-s-yao/gabo.