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Reinforcement Learning · Policy Search

Zhongchang Sun, Sihong He, Fei Miao, Shaofeng Zou

Existing studies on constrained reinforcement learning (RL) may obtain a well-performing policy in the training environment. However, when deployed in a real environment, it may easily violate constraints that were originally satisfied during training because there might be model mismatch between the training and real environments. To address this challenge, we formulate the problem as constrained RL under model uncertainty, where the goal is to learn a policy that optimizes the reward and at the same time satisfies the constraint under model mismatch. We develop a Robust Constrained Policy Optimization (RCPO) algorithm, which is the first algorithm that applies to large/continuous state space and has theoretical guarantees on worst-case reward improvement and constraint violation at each iteration during the training. We show the effectiveness of our algorithm on a set of RL tasks with constraints.

Reinforcement Learning · Multi-agent

Amutheezan Sivagnanam, Ava Pettet, Hunter Lee, Ayan Mukhopadhyay, Abhishek Dubey, Aron Laszka

An emergency responder management (ERM) system dispatches responders, such as ambulances, when it receives requests for medical aid. ERM systems can also proactively reposition responders between predesignated waiting locations to cover any gaps that arise due to the prior dispatch of responders or significant changes in the distribution of anticipated requests. Optimal repositioning is computationally challenging due to the exponential number of ways to allocate responders between locations and the uncertainty in future requests. The state-of-the-art approach in proactive repositioning is a hierarchical approach based on spatial decomposition and online Monte Carlo tree search, which may require minutes of computation for each decision in a domain where seconds can save lives. We address the issue of long decision times by introducing a novel reinforcement learning (RL) approach, based on the same hierarchical decomposition, but replacing online search with learning. To address the computational challenges posed by large, variable-dimensional, and discrete state and action spaces, we propose: (1) actor-critic based agents that incorporate transformers to handle variable-dimensional states and actions, (2) projections to fixed-dimensional observations to handle complex states, and (3) combinatorial techniques to map continuous actions to discrete allocations. We evaluate our approach using real-world data from two U.S. cities, Nashville, TN and Seattle, WA. Our experiments show that compared to the state of the art, our approach reduces computation time per decision by three orders of magnitude, while also slightly reducing average ambulance response time by 5 seconds.

Laixi Shi, Eric Mazumdar, Yuejie Chi, Adam Wierman

To overcome the sim-to-real gap in reinforcement learning (RL), learned policies must maintain robustness against environmental uncertainties. While robust RL has been widely studied in single-agent regimes, in multi-agent environments, the problem remains understudied---despite the fact that the problems posed by environmental uncertainties are often exacerbated by strategic interactions. This work focuses on learning in distributionally robust Markov games (RMGs), a robust variant of standard Markov games, wherein each agent aims to learn a policy that maximizes its own worst-case performance when the deployed environment deviates within its own prescribed uncertainty set. This results in a set of robust equilibrium strategies for all agents that align with classic notions of game-theoretic equilibria. Assuming a non-adaptive sampling mechanism from a generative model, we propose a sample-efficient model-based algorithm (DRNVI) with finite-sample complexity guarantees for learning robust variants of various notions of game-theoretic equilibria. We also establish an information-theoretic lower bound for solving RMGs, which confirms the near-optimal sample complexity of DRNVI with respect to problem-dependent factors such as the size of the state space, the target accuracy, and the horizon length.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Mehran Poursoltani, Erick Delage, Angelos Georghiou

The abundance of data has led to the emergence of a variety of optimization techniques that attempt to leverage available side information to provide more anticipative decisions. The wide range of methods and contexts of application have motivated the design of a universal unitless measure of performance known as the coefficient of prescriptiveness. This coefficient was designed to quantify both the quality of contextual decisions compared to a reference one and the prescriptive power of side information. To identify policies that maximize the former in a data-driven context, this paper introduces a distributionally robust contextual optimization model where the coefficient of prescriptiveness substitutes for the classical empirical risk minimization objective. We present a bisection algorithm to solve this model, which relies on solving a series of linear programs when the distributional ambiguity set has an appropriate nested form and polyhedral structure. Studying a contextual shortest path problem, we evaluate the robustness of the resulting policies against alternative methods when the out-of-sample dataset is subject to varying amounts of distribution shift.

Aleksandr Podkopaev, Darren Xu, Kuang-chih Lee

Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider the problem of adaptive conformal inference without any assumptions about the data generating process. Existing approaches for adaptive conformal inference are based on optimizing the pinball loss using variants of online gradient descent. A notable shortcoming of such approaches is in their explicit dependence on and sensitivity to the choice of the learning rates. In this paper, we propose a different approach for adaptive conformal inference that leverages parameter-free online convex optimization techniques. We prove that our method controls long-term miscoverage frequency at a nominal level and demonstrate its convincing empirical performance without any need of performing cumbersome parameter tuning.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Luis A. Ortega, Simon Rodriguez Santana, Daniel Hernández-Lobato

The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) has been recently used to perform uncertainty estimation on the predictions of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs). However, its widespread application is hindered by significant computational costs, particularly in scenarios with a large number of training points or DNN parameters. Consequently, additional approximations of LLA, such as Kronecker-factored or diagonal approximate GGN matrices, are utilized, potentially compromising the model's performance. To address these challenges, we propose a new method for approximating LLA using a variational sparse Gaussian Process (GP). Our method is based on the dual RKHS formulation of GPs and retains as the predictive mean the output of the original DNN. Furthermore, it allows for efficient stochastic optimization, which results in sub-linear training time in the size of the training dataset. Specifically, its training cost is independent of the number of training points. We compare our proposed method against accelerated LLA (ELLA), which relies on the Nyström approximation, as well as other LLA variants employing the sample-then-optimize principle. Experimental results, both on regression and classification datasets, show that our method outperforms these already existing efficient variants of LLA, both in terms of the quality of the predictive distribution and in terms of total computational time.

Jiashuo Liu, Jiayun Wu, Tianyu Wang, Hao Zou, Bo Li, Peng Cui

Machine learning algorithms minimizing average risk are susceptible to distributional shifts. Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) addresses this issue by optimizing the worst-case risk within an uncertainty set. However, DRO suffers from over-pessimism, leading to low-confidence predictions, poor parameter estimations as well as poor generalization. In this work, we conduct a theoretical analysis of a probable root cause of over-pessimism: excessive focus on noisy samples. To alleviate the impact of noise, we incorporate data geometry into calibration terms in DRO, resulting in our novel Geometry-Calibrated DRO (GCDRO) for regression. We establish the connection between our risk objective and the Helmholtz free energy in statistical physics, and this free-energy-based risk can extend to standard DRO methods. Leveraging gradient flow in Wasserstein space, we develop an approximate minimax optimization algorithm with a bounded error ratio and elucidate how our approach mitigates noisy sample effects. Comprehensive experiments confirm GCDRO's superiority over conventional DRO methods.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Ziquan Liu, Yufei Cui, Yan Yan, Yi Xu, Xiangyang Ji, Xue Liu, Antoni Chan

In safety-critical applications such as medical imaging and autonomous driving, where decisions have profound implications for patient health and road safety, it is imperative to maintain both high adversarial robustness to protect against potential adversarial attacks and reliable uncertainty quantification in decision-making. With extensive research focused on enhancing adversarial robustness through various forms of adversarial training (AT), a notable knowledge gap remains concerning the uncertainty inherent in adversarially trained models. To address this gap, this study investigates the uncertainty of deep learning models by examining the performance of conformal prediction (CP) in the context of standard adversarial attacks within the adversarial defense community. It is first unveiled that existing CP methods do not produce informative prediction sets under the commonly used $l_{\infty}$-norm bounded attack if the model is not adversarially trained, which underpins the importance of adversarial training for CP. Our paper next demonstrates that the prediction set size (PSS) of CP using adversarially trained models with AT variants is often worse than using standard AT, inspiring us to research into CP-efficient AT for improved PSS. We propose to optimize a Beta-weighting loss with an entropy minimization regularizer during AT to improve CP-efficiency, where the Beta-weighting loss is shown to be an upper bound of PSS at the population level by our theoretical analysis. Moreover, our empirical study on four image classification datasets across three popular AT baselines validates the effectiveness of the proposed Uncertainty-Reducing AT (AT-UR).

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

zhiyi li, Yunbei Xu, Ruohan Zhan

The Robust Satisficing (RS) model is an emerging approach to robust optimization, offering streamlined procedures and robust generalization across various applications. However, the statistical theory of RS remains unexplored in the literature. This paper fills in the gap by comprehensively analyzing the theoretical properties of the RS model. Notably, the RS structure offers a more straightforward path to deriving statistical guarantees compared to the seminal Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), resulting in a richer set of results. In particular, we establish two-sided confidence intervals for the optimal loss without the need to solve a minimax optimization problem explicitly. We further provide finite-sample generalization error bounds for the RS optimizer. Importantly, our results extend to scenarios involving distribution shifts, where discrepancies exist between the sampling and target distributions. Our numerical experiments show that the RS model consistently outperforms the baseline empirical risk minimization in small-sample regimes and under distribution shifts. Furthermore, compared to the DRO model, the RS model exhibits lower sensitivity to hyperparameter tuning, highlighting its practicability for robustness considerations.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Yangyi Li, Aobo Chen, Wei Qian, Chenxu Zhao, Divya Lidder, Mengdi Huai

The efficient and theoretically sound uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trust in deep learning models. This has spurred a growing interest in conformal prediction (CP), a powerful technique that provides a model-agnostic and distribution-free method for obtaining conformal prediction sets with theoretical guarantees. However, the vulnerabilities of such CP methods with regard to dedicated data poisoning attacks have not been studied previously. To bridge this gap, for the first time, we in this paper propose a new class of black-box data poisoning attacks against CP, where the adversary aims to cause the desired manipulations of some specific examples' prediction uncertainty results (instead of misclassifications). Additionally, we design novel optimization frameworks for our proposed attacks. Further, we conduct extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our attacks on various settings (e.g., the full and split CP settings). Notably, our extensive experiments show that our attacks are more effective in manipulating uncertainty results than traditional poisoning attacks that aim at inducing misclassifications, and existing defenses against conventional attacks are ineffective against our proposed attacks.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Victor Letzelter, David Perera, C√©dric Rommel, Mathieu Fontaine, Slim Essid, Gaël Richard, Patrick Perez

Winner-takes-all training is a simple learning paradigm, which handles ambiguous tasks by predicting a set of plausible hypotheses. Recently, a connection was established between Winner-takes-all training and centroidal Voronoi tessellations, showing that, once trained, hypotheses should quantize optimally the shape of the conditional distribution to predict. However, the best use of these hypotheses for uncertainty quantification is still an open question. In this work, we show how to leverage the appealing geometric properties of the Winner-takes-all learners for conditional density estimation, without modifying its original training scheme. We theoretically establish the advantages of our novel estimator both in terms of quantization and density estimation, and we demonstrate its competitiveness on synthetic and real-world datasets, including audio data.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

JoonHo Lee, Jae Oh Woo, Juree Seok, Parisa Hassanzadeh, Wooseok Jang, JuYoun Son, Sima Didari, Baruch Gutow, Heng Hao, Hankyu Moon 等

Assessing response quality to instructions in language models is vital but challenging due to the complexity of human language across different contexts. This complexity often results in ambiguous or inconsistent interpretations, making accurate assessment difficult. To address this issue, we propose a novel Uncertainty-aware Reward Model (URM) that introduces a robust uncertainty estimation for the quality of paired responses based on Bayesian approximation. Trained with preference datasets, our uncertainty-enabled proxy not only scores rewards for responses but also evaluates their inherent uncertainty. Empirical results demonstrate significant benefits of incorporating the proposed proxy into language model training. Our method boosts the instruction following capability of language models by refining data curation for training and improving policy optimization objectives, thereby surpassing existing methods by a large margin on benchmarks such as Vicuna and MT-bench. These findings highlight that our proposed approach substantially advances language model training and paves a new way of harnessing uncertainty within language models.

Reinforcement Learning

Hyunin Lee, Ming Jin, Javad Lavaei, Somayeh Sojoudi

Real-time inference is a challenge of real-world reinforcement learning due to temporal differences in time-varying environments: the system collects data from the past, updates the decision model in the present, and deploys it in the future. We tackle a common belief that continually updating the decision is optimal to minimize the temporal gap. We propose forecasting an online reinforcement learning framework and show that strategically pausing decision updates yields better overall performance by effectively managing aleatoric uncertainty. Theoretically, we compute an optimal ratio between policy update and hold duration, and show that a non-zero policy hold duration provides a sharper upper bound on the dynamic regret. Our experimental evaluations on three different environments also reveal that a non-zero policy hold duration yields higher rewards compared to continuous decision updates.

Social Aspects · Trustworthy Machine Learning

Mira Juergens, Nis Meinert, Viktor Bengs, Eyke Hüllermeier, Willem Waegeman

Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative approaches, such as evidential deep learning methods, have become popular in recent years. The latter group of methods in essence extends empirical risk minimization (ERM) for predicting second-order probability distributions over outcomes, from which measures of epistemic (and aleatoric) uncertainty can be extracted. This paper presents novel theoretical insights of evidential deep learning, highlighting the difficulties in optimizing second-order loss functions and interpreting the resulting epistemic uncertainty measures. With a systematic setup that covers a wide range of approaches for classification, regression and counts, it provides novel insights into issues of identifiability and convergence in second-order loss minimization, and the relative (rather than absolute) nature of epistemic uncertainty measures.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · General Machine Learning Techniques

Hao-Yuan He, Hui Sun, Zheng Xie, Ming Li

Abductive Learning (ABL) is a promising framework for integrating sub-symbolic perception and logical reasoning through abduction. In this case, the abduction process provides supervision for the perception model from the background knowledge. Nevertheless, this process naturally contains uncertainty, since the knowledge base may be satisfied by numerous potential candidates. This implies that the result of the abduction process, i.e., a set of candidates, is ambiguous; both correct and incorrect candidates are mixed in this set. The prior art of abductive learning selects the candidate that has the minimal inconsistency of the knowledge base. However, this method overlooks the ambiguity in the abduction process and is prone to error when it fails to identify the correct candidates. To address this, we propose Ambiguity-Aware Abductive Learning ($\textrm{A}^3\textrm{BL}$), which evaluates all potential candidates and their probabilities, thus preventing the model from falling into sub-optimal solutions. Both experimental results and theoretical analyses prove that $\textrm{A}^3\textrm{BL}$ markedly enhances ABL by efficiently exploiting the ambiguous abduced supervision.

Theory · Active Learning and Interactive Learning

Luca Franco, Paolo Mandica, Konstantinos Kallidromitis, Devin Guillory, Yu-Teng Li, Trevor Darrell, Fabio Galasso

We introduce a hyperbolic neural network approach to pixel-level active learning for semantic segmentation. Analysis of the data statistics leads to a novel interpretation of the hyperbolic radius as an indicator of data scarcity. In HALO (Hyperbolic Active Learning Optimization), for the first time, we propose the use of epistemic uncertainty as a data acquisition strategy, following the intuition of selecting data points that are the least known. The hyperbolic radius, complemented by the widely-adopted prediction entropy, effectively approximates epistemic uncertainty. We perform extensive experimental analysis based on two established synthetic-to-real benchmarks, i.e. GTAV $\rightarrow$ Cityscapes and SYNTHIA $\rightarrow$ Cityscapes. Additionally, we test HALO on Cityscape $\rightarrow$ ACDC for domain adaptation under adverse weather conditions, and we benchmark both convolutional and attention-based backbones. HALO sets a new state-of-the-art in active learning for semantic segmentation under domain shift and it is the first active learning approach that surpasses the performance of supervised domain adaptation while using only a small portion of labels (i.e., 1%).

Applications · Robotics

Pranav Singh Chib, Achintya Nath, Paritosh Kabra, Ishu Gupta, Pravendra Singh

Pedestrian trajectory prediction aims to predict future trajectories based on observed trajectories. Current state-of-the-art methods often assume that the observed sequences of agents are complete, which is a strong assumption that overlooks inherent uncertainties. Understanding pedestrian behavior when dealing with missing values in the observed sequence is crucial for enhancing the performance of predictive models. In this work, we propose the MultiScale hypergraph for Trajectory Imputation and Prediction (MS-TIP), a novel approach that simultaneously addresses the imputation of missing observations and the prediction of future trajectories. Specifically, we leverage transformers with diagonal masked self-attention to impute incomplete observations. Further, our approach promotes complex interaction modeling through multi-scale hypergraphs, optimizing our trajectory prediction module to capture different types of interactions. With the inclusion of scenic attention, we learn contextual scene information, instead of sole reliance on coordinates. Additionally, our approach utilizes an intermediate control point and refinement module to infer future trajectories accurately. Extensive experiments validate the efficacy of MS-TIP in precisely predicting pedestrian future trajectories. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Pranav-chib/MS-TIP.

Deep Learning · Attention Mechanisms

Yingyi Chen, Qinghua Tao, Francesco Tonin, Johan Suykens

While the great capability of Transformers significantly boosts prediction accuracy, it could also yield overconfident predictions and require calibrated uncertainty estimation, which can be commonly tackled by Gaussian processes (GPs). Existing works apply GPs with symmetric kernels under variational inference to the attention kernel; however, omitting the fact that attention kernels are in essence asymmetric. Moreover, the complexity of deriving the GP posteriors remains high for large-scale data. In this work, we propose Kernel-Eigen Pair Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (KEP-SVGP) for building uncertainty-aware self-attention where the asymmetry of attention kernels is tackled by Kernel SVD (KSVD) and a reduced complexity is acquired. Through KEP-SVGP, i) the SVGP pair induced by the two sets of singular vectors from KSVD w.r.t. the attention kernel fully characterizes the asymmetry; ii) using only a small set of adjoint eigenfunctions from KSVD, the derivation of SVGP posteriors can be based on the inversion of a diagonal matrix containing singular values, contributing to a reduction in time complexity; iii) an evidence lower bound is derived so that variational parameters and network weights can be optimized with it. Experiments verify our excellent performances and efficiency on in-distribution, distribution-shift and out-of-distribution benchmarks.

Social Aspects · Privacy-preserving Statistics and Machine Learning

Gavin Brown, Krishnamurthy Dvijotham, Georgina Evans, Daogao Liu, Adam Smith, Abhradeep Guha Thakurta

We provide an improved analysis of standard differentially private gradient descent for linear regression under the squared error loss. Under modest assumptions on the input, we characterize the distribution of the iterate at each time step. Our analysis leads to new results on the algorithm's accuracy: for a proper fixed choice of hyperparameters, the sample complexity depends only linearly on the dimension of the data. This matches the dimension-dependence of the (non-private) ordinary least squares estimator as well as that of recent private algorithms that rely on sophisticated adaptive gradient-clipping schemes (Varshney et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2023). Our analysis of the iterates' distribution also allows us to construct confidence intervals for the empirical optimizer which adapt automatically to the variance of the algorithm on a particular data set. We validate our theorems through experiments on synthetic data.

Deep Learning · Everything Else

Idan Achituve, Idit Diamant, Arnon Netzer, Gal Chechik, Ethan Fetaya

As machine learning becomes more prominent there is a growing demand to perform several inference tasks in parallel. Multi-task learning (MTL) addresses this challenge by learning a single model that solves several tasks simultaneously and efficiently. Often optimizing MTL models entails first computing the gradient of the loss for each task, and then aggregating all the gradients to obtain a combined update direction. However, common methods following this approach do not consider an important aspect, the sensitivity in the dimensions of the gradients. Some dimensions may be more lenient for changes while others may be more restrictive. Here, we introduce a novel gradient aggregation procedure using Bayesian inference. We place a probability distribution over the task-specific parameters, which in turn induce a *distribution* over the gradients of the tasks. This valuable information allows us to quantify the uncertainty associated with each of the gradients' dimensions which is factored in when aggregating them. We empirically demonstrate the benefits of our approach in a variety of datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance.