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Applications · Time Series

Yufeng Zou, Zijian Wang, Diego Klabjan, Han Liu

Times series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for time series analysis and forecasting, showing remarkable generalization performance across different domains. While efforts have been made on hallucinations of foundation models, the hallucinations of TSFMs have been underexplored. In this paper, we formally define TSFM hallucinations in the zero-shot forecasting setting by examining whether a generated forecast exhibits different dynamics from those of the context. Our study reveals that TSFM hallucinations primarily stem from the loss of context information in hidden states during forward propagation. As such, we propose methodologies to identify signal subspaces in TSFMs and magnify their information through intervention. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed intervention approach effectively mitigates hallucinations and improves forecasting performance. Furthermore, the signal strength measure we compute from signal subspaces has strong predictive power of hallucinations and forecasting performance of the model. Our work contributes to deeper understanding of TSFM trustworthiness that could foster future research in this direction.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Nicholas Boffi, Michael Albergo, Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Flow-based generative models achieve state-of-the-art sample quality, but require the expensive solution of a differential equation at inference time. Flow map models, commonly known as consistency models, encompass many recent efforts to improve inference-time efficiency by learning the solution operator of this differential equation. Yet despite their promise, these models lack a unified description that clearly explains how to learn them efficiently in practice. Here, building on the methodology proposed in Boffi et. al. (2024), we present a systematic algorithmic framework for directly learning the flow map associated with a flow or diffusion model. By exploiting a relationship between the velocity field underlying a continuous-time flow and the instantaneous rate of change of the flow map, we show how to convert any distillation scheme into a direct training algorithm via self-distillation, eliminating the need for pre-trained teachers. We introduce three algorithmic families based on different mathematical characterizations of the flow map: Eulerian, Lagrangian, and Progressive methods, which we show encompass and extend all known distillation and direct training schemes for consistency models. We find that the novel class of Lagrangian methods, which avoid both spatial derivatives and bootstrapping from small steps by design, achieve significantly more stable training and higher performance than more standard Eulerian and Progressive schemes. Our methodology unifies existing training schemes under a single common framework and reveals new design principles for accelerated generative modeling. Associated code is available at https://github.com/nmboffi/flow-maps.

Deep Learning · Robustness

Navid Hashemi, Samuel Sasaki, Ipek Oguz, Meiyi Ma, Taylor Johnson

Semantic segmentation neural networks (SSNs) are increasingly essential in high-stakes fields such as medical imaging, autonomous driving, and environmental monitoring, where robustness to input uncertainties and adversarial examples is crucial for ensuring safety and reliability. However, traditional probabilistic verification methods struggle to scale effectively with the size and depth of modern SSNs, especially when dealing with their high-dimensional, structured inputs/outputs. As the output dimension increases, these methods tend to become overly conservative, resulting in unnecessarily restrictive safety guarantees. In this work, we propose a probabilistic, data-driven verification algorithm that is architecture-agnostic and scalable, capable of handling the high-dimensional outputs of SSNs without introducing conservative and loose guarantees. We leverage efficient sampling-based reachability analysis to explore the space of possible outputs while maintaining computational feasibility. Our methodology is based on Conformal Inference (CI), which is known for its high data efficiency. However, CI tends to be overly conservative in high-dimensional spaces. To address this, in this paper, we introduce techniques to mitigate these sources of conservatism, enabling us to provide less conservative yet provable guarantees for SSNs. We validate our approach on large segmentation models applied to CamVid, OCTA-500 and Lung\_Segmentation, and Cityscapes datasets, showing that it can offer reliable safety guarantees while lowering the conservatism inherent in traditional methods. We also provide a public GitHub repository for this approach, to support reproducibility.

Applications · Language, Speech and Dialog

Zhenyu Li, Kehai Chen, Yunfei Long, Xuefeng Bai, Yaoyin Zhang, Xuchen Wei, Juntao Li, Min Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable instruction-following capabilities across various applications. However, their performance in multilingual settings lacks systematic investigation, with existing evaluations lacking fine-grained constraint analysis across diverse linguistic contexts. We introduce **XIFBench**, a comprehensive constraint-based benchmark for evaluating multilingual instruction-following abilities of LLMs, comprising 558 instructions with 0-5 additional constraints across five categories (*Content*, *Style*, *Situation*, *Format*, and *Numerical*) in six languages spanning different resource levels. To support reliable and consistent cross-lingual evaluation, we implement three methodological innovations: cultural accessibility annotation, constraint-level translation validation, and requirement-based evaluation using English requirements as semantic anchors across languages. Extensive experiments with various LLMs not only quantify performance disparities across resource levels but also provide detailed insights into how language resources, constraint categories, instruction complexity, and cultural specificity influence multilingual instruction-following. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/zhenyuli801/XIFBench.

Reinforcement Learning · Multi-agent

Larkin Liu, Jalal Etesami

We explore the use of expert-guided bandit learning, which we refer to as online mixture-of-experts (OMoE). In this setting, given a context, a candidate committee of experts must determine how to aggregate their outputs to achieve optimal results in terms of aggregate accuracy. We propose two algorithms to address this problem. The first algorithm combines aggregate voting with UCB-driven successive elimination, efficiently pruning suboptimal exploration actions. The second algorithm employs an online weighted-majority-voting mechanism, leveraging the respective voting power of each expert proportional to their predictive power. We derive theoretical guarantees for the regret properties in the bandit setting under ideal circumstances, and empirical results are provided accordingly. As a modern study on applications, these methods are applied to the online fine-tuning of a set of expert large language models (LLMs), where after each response, the generative LLM dynamically reweighs its set of experts and/or selects the optimal committee of experts to generate the most accurate response. Our results introduce new methodologies and no-regret guarantees for combining multiple experts to improve on the performance of the an aggregate model overall.

Computer Vision · Image and Video Generation

ZiDong Wang, LEI BAI, Xiangyu Yue, Wanli Ouyang, Yiyuan Zhang

We introduce native-resolution image synthesis, a novel paradigm in generative modeling capable of synthesizing images at arbitrary resolutions and aspect ratios. This approach overcomes the limitations of standard fixed-resolution, square-image methods by inherently handling variable-length visual tokens—a core challenge for conventional techniques. To this end, we propose the Native-resolution diffusion Transformer (NiT), an architecture that explicitly models varying resolutions and aspect ratios within its denoising process. Unconstrained by fixed formats, NiT learns intrinsic visual distributions from images encompassing a wide range of resolutions and aspect ratios. Notably, a single NiT model simultaneously achieves the state-of-the-art performance on both ImageNet-256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks. Surprisingly, akin to the robust zero-shot capabilities seen in advanced Large Language Models, NiT, pretrained solely on ImageNet, demonstrates excellent zero-shot generalization performance. It successfully generates high-fidelity images at previously unseen high resolutions (e.g., 1024x1024, 1536x1536) and diverse aspect ratios (e.g., 16:9,3:1, 4:3), as shown in Figure 1. These findings indicate the significant potential of native-resolution modeling as a bridge between visual generative modeling and advanced LLM methodologies.

Applications · Chemistry and Drug Discovery

Zonglin Yang, Wanhao Liu, Ben Gao, Yujie Liu, Wei Li, Tong Xie, Lidong Bing, Wanli Ouyang, Erik Cambria, Dongzhan Zhou

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in automating scientific hypothesis generation, yet existing approaches primarily yield coarse-grained hypotheses lacking critical methodological and experimental details. We introduce and formally define the new task of fine-grained scientific hypothesis discovery, which entails generating detailed, experimentally actionable hypotheses from coarse initial research directions. We frame this as a combinatorial optimization problem and investigate the upper limits of LLMs' capacity to solve it when maximally leveraged. Specifically, we explore four foundational questions: (1) how to best harness an LLM's internal heuristics to formulate the fine-grained hypothesis it itself would judge as the most promising among all the possible hypotheses it might generate, based on its own internal scoring-thus defining a latent reward landscape over the hypothesis space; (2) whether such LLM-judged better hypotheses exhibit stronger alignment with ground-truth hypotheses; (3) whether shaping the reward landscape using an ensemble of diverse LLMs of similar capacity yields better outcomes than defining it with repeated instances of the strongest LLM among them; and (4) whether an ensemble of identical LLMs provides a more reliable reward landscape than a single LLM. To address these questions, we propose a hierarchical search method that incrementally proposes and integrates details into the hypothesis, progressing from general concepts to specific experimental configurations. We show that this hierarchical process smooths the reward landscape and enables more effective optimization. Empirical evaluations on a new benchmark of expert-annotated fine-grained hypotheses from recent literature show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines.

Theory · Domain Adaptation and Transfer Learning

Kecheng Chen, Pingping Zhang, Hui Liu, Jie Liu, Yibing Liu, Jiaxin Huang, Shiqi Wang, Hong Yan, Haoliang Li

We have recently witnessed that ''Intelligence" and `''Compression" are the two sides of the same coin, where the language large model (LLM) with unprecedented intelligence is a general-purpose lossless compressor for various data modalities. This attribute is particularly appealing to the lossless image compression community, given the increasing need to compress high-resolution images in the current streaming media era. Consequently, a spontaneous envision emerges: Can the compression performance of the LLM elevate lossless image compression to new heights? However, our findings indicate that the naive application of LLM-based lossless image compressors suffers from a considerable performance gap compared with existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) codecs on common benchmark datasets. In light of this, we are dedicated to fulfilling the unprecedented intelligence (compression) capacity of the LLM for lossless image compression tasks, thereby bridging the gap between theoretical and practical compression performance. Specifically, we propose P -LLM, a next-pixel prediction-based LLM, which integrates various elaborated insights and methodologies, \textit{e.g.,} pixel-level priors, the in-context ability of LLM, and a pixel-level semantic preservation strategy, to enhance the understanding capacity of pixel sequences for better next-pixel predictions. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that P-LLM can beat SOTA classical and learned codecs.

General Machine Learning · Causality

Manuel Iglesias-Alonso, Felix Schur, Julius von Kügelgen, Jonas Peters

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy of the hidden confounder and that all variables are discrete or categorical. We propose methodology to estimate the causal effect in the target domain, where we assume to observe only the proxy variable. Under these conditions, we prove identifiability (even when treatment and response variables are continuous). We introduce two estimation techniques, prove consistency, and derive confidence intervals. The theoretical results are supported by simulation studies and a real-world example studying the causal effect of website rankings on consumer choices.

Applications · Physics

Vansh Sharma, Harish Ganesh, Maryam Akram, Wanjiao Liu, Venkat Raman

This study presents a new high-fidelity multi-modal dataset containing 16000+ geometric variants of automotive hoods useful for machine learning (ML) applications such as engineering component design and process optimization, and multiphysics system surrogates. The dataset is centered on a practical multiphysics problem—hood deformation from fluid entrapment and inertial loading during rotary‑dip painting. Each hood is numerically modeled with a coupled Large-Eddy Simulation (LES)-Finite Element Analysis (FEA), using 1.2M cells in total to ensure spatial and temporal accuracy. The dataset provides time-resolved physical fields, along with STL meshes and structured natural language prompts for text-to-geometry synthesis. Existing datasets are either confined to 2D cases, exhibit limited geometric variations, or lack the multi‑modal annotations and data structures—shortcomings we address with AutoHood3D. We validate our numerical methodology, establish quantitative baselines across five neural architectures, and demonstrate systematic surrogate errors in displacement and force predictions. These findings motivate the design of novel approaches and multiphysics loss functions that enforce fluid–solid coupling during model training. By providing fully reproducible workflows, AutoHood3D enables physics‑aware ML development, accelerates generative‑design iteration, and facilitates the creation of new FSI benchmarks.

Applications · Language, Speech and Dialog

Jiajun Shi, Jian Yang, Jiaheng Liu, Xingyuan Bu, Jiangjie Chen, Junting Zhou, Kaijing Ma, Zhoufutu Wen, Bingli Wang, Yancheng He 等

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) underscore the need for more comprehensive evaluation methods to accurately assess their reasoning capabilities. Existing benchmarks are often domain-specific and thus cannot fully capture an LLM’s general reasoning potential. To address this limitation, we introduce the **Knowledge Orthogonal Reasoning Gymnasium (KORGym)**, a dynamic evaluation platform inspired by KOR-Bench and Gymnasium. KORGym offers over fifty games in either textual or visual formats and supports interactive, multi-turn assessments with reinforcement learning scenarios. Using KORGym, we conduct extensive experiments on 19 LLMs and 8 VLMs, revealing consistent reasoning patterns within model families and demonstrating the superior performance of closed-source models. Further analysis examines the effects of modality, reasoning strategies, reinforcement learning techniques, and response length on model performance. We expect KORGym to become a valuable resource for advancing LLM reasoning research and developing evaluation methodologies suited to complex, interactive environments.

Deep Learning · Algorithms

Kunjun Li, Zigeng Chen, Cheng-Yen Yang, Jenq-Neng Hwang

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has garnered significant attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach, which yields substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Nevertheless, the coarse-to-fine methodology inherent in VAR results in exponential growth of the KV cache during inference, causing considerable memory consumption and computational redundancy. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce ScaleKV, a novel KV cache compression framework tailored for VAR architectures. ScaleKV leverages two critical observations: varying cache demands across transformer layers and distinct attention patterns at different scales. Based on these insights, ScaleKV categorizes transformer layers into two functional groups: drafters and refiners. Drafters exhibit dispersed attention across multiple scales, thereby requiring greater cache capacity. Conversely, refiners focus attention on the current token map to process local details, consequently necessitating substantially reduced cache capacity. ScaleKV optimizes the multi-scale inference pipeline by identifying scale-specific drafters and refiners, facilitating differentiated cache management tailored to each scale. Evaluation on the state-of-the-art text-to-image VAR model family, Infinity, demonstrates that our approach effectively reduces the required KV cache memory to 10% while preserving pixel-level fidelity.

Applications · Chemistry and Drug Discovery

Jarren Zhuoran Qiao, Feizhi Ding, Thomas Dresselhaus, Mia Rosenfeld, Xiaotian Han, Owen Howell, Aniketh Iyengar, Stephen Opalenski, Anders Christensen, Sai Krishna Sirumalla 等

Biomolecular structure determination is essential to a mechanistic understanding of diseases and the development of novel therapeutics. Machine-learning-based structure prediction methods have made significant advancements by computationally predicting protein and bioassembly structures from sequences and molecular topology alone. Despite substantial progress in the field, challenges remain to deliver structure prediction models to real-world drug discovery. Here, we present NeuralPLexer3 -- a physics-inspired flow-based generative model that achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy on key biomolecular interaction types and improves training and sampling efficiency compared to its predecessors and alternative methodologies. Examined through existing and new benchmarks, NeuralPLexer3 excels in areas crucial to structure-based drug design, including blind docking, physical validity, and ligand-induced protein conformational changes.

Data-centric AI · Data-centric AI methods and tools

Thomson Yen, Andrew Siah, Haozhe Chen, C. Guetta, Tianyi Peng, Hongseok Namkoong

Careful curation of data sources can significantly improve the performance of LLM pre-training, but predominant approaches rely heavily on intuition or costly trial-and-error, making them difficult to generalize across different data domains and downstream tasks. Although scaling laws can provide a principled and general approach for data curation, standard deterministic extrapolation from small-scale experiments to larger scales requires strong assumptions on the reliability of such extrapolation, whose brittleness has been highlighted in prior works. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic extrapolation framework for data mixture optimization that avoids rigid assumptions and explicitly models the uncertainty in performance across decision variables. We formulate data curation as a sequential decision-making problem–multi-fidelity, multi-scale Bayesian optimization–where {data mixtures, model scale, training steps} are adaptively selected to balance training cost and potential information gain. Our framework naturally gives rise to algorithm prototypes that leverage noisy information from inexpensive experiments to systematically inform costly training decisions. To accelerate methodological progress, we build a simulator based on 472 language model pre-training runs with varying data compositions from the SlimPajama dataset. We observe that even simple kernels and acquisition functions can enable principled decisions across training models from 20M to 1B parameters and achieve 2.6x and 3.3x speedups compared to multi-fidelity BO and random search baselines. Taken together, our framework underscores potential efficiency gains achievable by developing principled and transferable data mixture optimization methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/namkoong-lab/data-recipes.

Applications · Physics

Shenghe Zheng, Qianjia Cheng, Junchi Yao, Mengsong Wu, haonan he, Ning Ding, Yu Cheng, Shuyue Hu, LEI BAI, Dongzhan Zhou 等

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress on advanced reasoning tasks such as mathematics and coding competitions. Meanwhile, physics, despite being both reasoning-intensive and essential to real-world understanding, received limited academic and industrial attention. This paper introduces PHYSICS, a dataset containing 16,568 high-quality physics problems spanning subjects and difficulty levels, to facilitate this issue. Specifically, PHYSICS is curated with exercises from over 100 textbooks through a carefully designed pipeline for quality control. It covers five major physics domains: Mechanics, Electromagnetism, Thermodynamics, Optics, and Modern Physics. It also spans a wide range of difficulty levels, from high school to graduate-level physics courses. To utilize the data for improving and evaluating the model's physical reasoning capabilities, we split the dataset into training and test sets, and provide reasoning paths generated by powerful reasoning models for the training data to facilitate model training. In addition, for the evaluation part, we find that existing evaluation frameworks exhibit biases in aspects such as units, simplification, and precision in physics domain. To balance efficiency and accuracy, we introduce a Rule+Model evaluation framework tailored to physics problems. Our evaluations on current state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary models highlight the limitations of current models in handling physics-related tasks. We hope that our dataset and evaluation methodology will jointly advance the development of LLMs in the field of physics. The code and data can be found at: https://github.com/Zhengsh123/PHYSICS.

General Machine Learning · Everything Else

Edan Toledo, Karen Hambardzumyan, Martin Josifoski, Rishi Hazra, Nicolas Baldwin, Alexis Audran-Reiss, Michael Kuchnik, Despoina Magka, Minqi Jiang, Alisia Lupidi 等

AI research agents are demonstrating great potential to accelerate scientific progress by automating the design, implementation, and training of machine learning models. We focus on methods for improving agents' performance on MLE-bench, a challenging benchmark where agents compete in Kaggle competitions to solve real-world machine learning problems. We formalize AI research agents as search policies that navigate a space of candidate solutions, iteratively modifying them using operators. By designing and systematically varying different operator sets and search policies (Greedy, MCTS, Evolutionary), we show that their interplay is critical for achieving high performance. Our best pairing of search strategy and operator set achieves a state-of-the-art result on MLE-bench lite, increasing the success rate of achieving a Kaggle medal from 39.6% to 47.7%. Our investigation underscores the importance of jointly considering the search strategy, operator design, and evaluation methodology in advancing automated machine learning.

Daniel Pfrommer, Zehao Dou, Christopher Scarvelis, Max Simchowitz, Ali Jadbabaie

We study the inductive biases of diffusion models with a conditioning-variable, which have seen widespread application as both text-conditioned generative image models and observation-conditioned continuous control policies. We observe that when these models are queried conditionally, their generations consistently deviate from the idealized "denoising" process upon which diffusion models are formulated, inducing disagreement between popular sampling algorithms (e.g. DDPM, DDIM). We introduce *Schedule Deviation*, a rigorous measure which captures the rate of deviation from a standard denoising process, and provide a methodology to compute it. Crucially, we demonstrate that the deviation from an idealized denoising process occurs irrespective of the model capacity or amount of training data. We posit that this phenomenon occurs due to the difficulty of bridging distinct denoising flows across different parts of the conditioning space and show theoretically how such a phenomenon can arise through an inductive bias towards smoothness.

Xeron Du, Yifan Yao, Kaijing Ma, Bingli Wang, Tianyu Zheng, Zhu, Minghao Liu, Yiming Liang, Xiaolong Jin, Zhenlin Wei 等

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in mainstream academic disciplines such as mathematics, physics, and computer science. However, human knowledge encompasses over 200 specialized disciplines, far exceeding the scope of existing benchmarks. The capabilities of LLMs in many of these specialized fields-particularly in light industry, agriculture, and service-oriented disciplines-remain inadequately evaluated. To address this gap, we present SuperGPQA, a comprehensive benchmark that evaluates graduate-level knowledge and reasoning capabilities across 285 disciplines. Our benchmark employs a novel Human-LLM collaborative filtering mechanism to eliminate trivial or ambiguous questions through iterative refinement based on both LLM responses and expert feedback. Our experimental results reveal significant room for improvement in the performance of current state-of-the-art LLMs across diverse knowledge domains (e.g., the reasoning-focused model Gemini-2.5-Pro achieved the highest accuracy of 63.56% on SuperGPQA), highlighting the considerable gap between current model capabilities and artificial general intelligence. Additionally, we present comprehensive insights from our management of a large-scale annotation process, involving over 80 expert annotators and an interactive Human-LLM collaborative system, offering valuable methodological guidance for future research initiatives of comparable scope.

Applications · Robotics

Korneel Van den Berghe, Stein Stroobants, Vijay Janapa Reddi, Guido de Croon

Neuromorphic computing systems are set to revolutionize energy-constrained robotics by achieving orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains, while enabling native temporal processing. Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) represent a promising algorithmic approach for these systems, yet their application to complex control tasks faces two critical challenges: (1) the non-differentiable nature of spiking neurons necessitates surrogate gradients with unclear optimization properties, and (2) the stateful dynamics of SNNs require training on sequences, which in reinforcement learning (RL) is hindered by limited sequence lengths during early training, preventing the network from bridging its warm-up period. We address these challenges by systematically analyzing surrogate gradient slope settings, showing that shallower slopes increase gradient magnitude in deeper layers but reduce alignment with true gradients. In supervised learning, we find no clear preference for fixed or scheduled slopes. The effect is much more pronounced in RL settings, where shallower slopes or scheduled slopes lead to a $\times2.1$ improvement in both training and final deployed performance. Next, we propose a novel training approach that leverages a privileged guiding policy to bootstrap the learning process, while still exploiting online environment interactions with the spiking policy. Combining our method with an adaptive slope schedule for a real-world drone position control task, we achieve an average return of 400 points, substantially outperforming prior techniques, including Behavioral Cloning and TD3BC, which achieve at most –200 points under the same conditions. This work advances both the theoretical understanding of surrogate gradient learning in SNNs and practical training methodologies for neuromorphic controllers demonstrated in real-world robotic systems.

Applications · Time Series

Renzhao Liang, Sizhe Xu, Chenggang Xie, Jingru Chen, Feiyang Ren, Shu Yang, Takahiro Yabe

Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in critical domains such as energy management and financial markets. Although deep learning-based approaches (e.g., MLP, RNN, Transformer) have achieved remarkable progress, the prevailing "long-sequence information gain hypothesis" exhibits inherent limitations. Through systematic experimentation, this study reveals a counterintuitive phenomenon: appropriately truncating historical data can paradoxically enhance prediction accuracy, indicating that existing models learn substantial redundant features (e.g., noise or irrelevant fluctuations) during training, thereby compromising effective signal extraction. Building upon information bottleneck theory, we propose an innovative solution termed Adaptive Masking Loss with Representation Consistency (AMRC), which features two core components: 1) Dynamic masking loss, which adaptively identified highly discriminative temporal segments to guide gradient descent during model training; 2) Representation consistency constraint, which stabilized the mapping relationships among inputs, labels, and predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that AMRC effectively suppresses redundant feature learning while significantly improving model performance. This work not only challenges conventional assumptions in temporal modeling but also provides novel theoretical insights and methodological breakthroughs for developing efficient and robust forecasting models. We have made our code available at \url{https://github.com/MazelTovy/AMRC}.