论文检索

Theory · Probabilistic Methods

Tomohiro Shiraishi, Tatsuya Matsukawa, Shuichi Nishino, Ichiro Takeuchi

A data analysis pipeline is a structured sequence of steps that transforms raw data into meaningful insights by integrating various analysis algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel statistical test to assess the significance of data analysis pipelines. Our approach enables the systematic development of valid statistical tests applicable to any feature selection pipeline composed of predefined components. We develop this framework based on selective inference, a statistical technique that has recently gained attention for data-driven hypotheses. As a proof of concept, we focus on feature selection pipelines for linear models, composed of three missing value imputation algorithms, three outlier detection algorithms, and three feature selection algorithms. We theoretically prove that our statistical test can control the probability of false positive feature selection at any desired level, and demonstrate its validity and effectiveness through experiments on synthetic and real data. Additionally, we present an implementation framework that facilitates testing across any configuration of these feature selection pipelines without extra implementation costs.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Zhaoyi Zhou, Yuda Song, Andrea Zanette

When developing new large language models (LLMs), a key step is evaluating their final performance, often by computing the win-rate against a reference model based on external feedback. Human feedback is the gold standard, particularly for capturing nuanced qualities like coherence, readability, and alignment with human expectations. However, human evaluations are costly—even for large tech companies—and when conducted with active users, they may negatively impact user experience.A promising alternative is synthetic feedback, where evaluations are conducted by other large language models, including reward models. While this eliminates the need for costly human annotations, it introduces biases that may distort the evaluation process.In this work, we propose a statistically principled framework that integrates human and synthetic feedback to reduce reliance on human annotations while maintaining unbiased win-rate calculations. Our experiments demonstrate a reduction in human annotations by up to 12.2\% with an off-the-shelf synthetic evaluator and up to 24.8\% with a finetuned variant. Apart from being generalizable, scalable, and free of hyper-parameter tuning, our method offers predictable annotation savings, which can be estimated based on data-dependent characteristics.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Alan Amin, Andres Potapczynski, Andrew Wilson

To understand how genetic variants in human genomes manifest in phenotypes - traits like height or diseases like asthma - geneticists have sequenced and measured hundreds of thousands of individuals. Geneticists use this data to build models that predict how a genetic variant impacts phenotype given genomic features of the variant, like DNA accessibility or the presence of nearby DNA-bound proteins. As more data and features become available, one might expect predictive models to improve. Unfortunately, training these models is bottlenecked by the need to solve expensive linear algebra problems because variants in the genome are correlated with nearby variants, requiring inversion of large matrices. Previous methods have therefore been restricted to fitting small models, and fitting simplified summary statistics, rather than the full likelihood of the statistical model. In this paper, we leverage modern fast linear algebra techniques to develop DeepWAS (Deep genome Wide Association Studies), a method to train large and flexible neural network predictive models to optimize likelihood. Surprisingly, we find that larger models only improve performance when using our full likelihood approach; when trained by fitting traditional summary statistics, larger models perform no better than small ones. We find larger models trained on more features make better predictions, potentially improving disease predictions and therapeutic target identification.

Probabilistic Methods

Matteo Gasparin, Aaditya Ramdas

Vovk (2015) introduced cross-conformal prediction, a modification of split conformal designed to improve the width of prediction sets. The method, when trained with a miscoverage rate equal to $\alpha$ and $n \gg K$, ensures a marginal coverage of at least $1 - 2\alpha - 2(1-\alpha)(K-1)/(n+K)$, where $n$ is the number of observations and $K$ denotes the number of folds. A simple modification of the method achieves coverage of at least $1-2\alpha$. In this work, we propose new variants of both methods that yield smaller prediction sets without compromising the latter theoretical guarantees. The proposed methods are based on recent results deriving more statistically efficient combination of p-values that leverage exchangeability and randomization. Simulations confirm the theoretical findings and bring out some important tradeoffs.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Stefano Cortinovis, Francois Caron

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) enables valid statistical inference by combining experimental data with machine learning predictions. When a sufficient number of high-quality predictions is available, PPI results in more accurate estimates and tighter confidence intervals than traditional methods. In this paper, we propose to inform the PPI framework with prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions. The resulting method, which we call frequentist, assisted by Bayes, PPI (FAB-PPI), improves over PPI when the observed prediction quality is likely under the prior, while maintaining its frequentist guarantees. Furthermore, when using heavy-tailed priors, FAB-PPI adaptively reverts to standard PPI in low prior probability regions. We demonstrate the benefits of FAB-PPI in real and synthetic examples.

Optimization · Non-Convex

Suryanarayana Sankagiri, Jalal Etesami, Matthias Grossglauser

In this paper, we consider a recommender system that elicits user feedback through pairwise comparisons instead of ratings. We study the problem of learning personalised preferences from such comparison data via collaborative filtering. Similar to the classical matrix completion setting, we assume that users and items are endowed with low-dimensional latent features. These features give rise to user-item utilities, and the comparison outcomes are governed by a discrete choice model over these utilities. The task of learning these features is then formulated as a maximum likelihood problem over the comparison dataset. Despite the resulting optimization problem being nonconvex, we show that gradient-based methods converge exponentially to the latent features, given a warm start. Importantly, this result holds in a sparse data regime, where each user compares only a few pairs of items. Our main technical contribution is to extend key concentration results commonly used in matrix completion to our model. Simulations reveal that the empirical performance of the method exceeds theoretical predictions, even when some assumptions are relaxed. Our work demonstrates that learning personalised recommendations from comparison data is both computationally and statistically efficient.

General Machine Learning · Everything Else

Can Chen, Jun-Kun Wang

Developing algorithms to differentiate between machine-generated texts and human-written texts has garnered substantial attention in recent years. Existing methods in this direction typically concern an offline setting where a dataset containing a mix of real and machine-generated texts is given upfront, and the task is to determine whether each sample in the dataset is from a large language model (LLM) or a human. However, in many practical scenarios, sources such as news websites, social media accounts, and online forums publish content in a streaming fashion. Therefore, in this online scenario, how to quickly and accurately determine whether the source is an LLM with strong statistical guarantees is crucial for these media or platforms to function effectively and prevent the spread of misinformation and other potential misuse of LLMs. To tackle the problem of online detection, we develop an algorithm based on the techniques of sequential hypothesis testing by betting that not only builds upon and complements existing offline detection techniques but also enjoys statistical guarantees, which include a controlled false positive rate and the expected time to correctly identify a source as an LLM. Experiments were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Applications · Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Yizi Zhang, Yanchen Wang, Mehdi Azabou, Alexandre Andre, Zixuan Wang, Hanrui Lyu, International Brain Laboratory, Eva Dyer, Department of Statistics Liam Paninski, Cole Hurwitz

Recent work has demonstrated that large-scale, multi-animal models are powerful tools for characterizing the relationship between neural activity and behavior. Current large-scale approaches, however, focus exclusively on either predicting neural activity from behavior (encoding) or predicting behavior from neural activity (decoding), limiting their ability to capture the bidirectional relationship between neural activity and behavior. To bridge this gap, we introduce a multimodal, multi-task model that enables simultaneous Neural Encoding and Decoding at Scale (NEDS). Central to our approach is a novel multi-task-masking strategy, which alternates between neural, behavioral, within-modality, and cross-modality masking. We pretrain our method on the International Brain Laboratory (IBL) repeated site dataset, which includes recordings from 83 animals performing the visual decision-making task. In comparison to other large-scale modeling approaches, we demonstrate that NEDS achieves state-of-the-art performance for both encoding and decoding when pretrained on multi-animal data and then fine-tuned on new animals. Surprisingly, NEDS's learned embeddings exhibit emergent properties: even without explicit training, they are highly predictive of the brain regions in each recording. Altogether, our approach is a step towards a foundation model of the brain that enables seamless translation between neural activity and behavior.

General Machine Learning · Evaluation

Benjamin Eyre, David Madras

The availability of machine learning systems that can effectively perform arbitrary tasks has led to synthetic labels from these systems being used in applications of statistical inference, such as data analysis or model evaluation. The Prediction Powered Inference (PPI) framework provides a way of leveraging both a large pool of pseudo-labelled data and a small sample with real, high-quality labels to produce a low-variance, unbiased estimate of the quantity being evaluated for. Most work on PPI considers a relatively sizable set of labelled samples, which can be resource intensive to obtain. However, we find that when labelled data is scarce, the PPI++ method can perform even worse than classical inference. We analyze this phenomenon by relating PPI++ to ordinary least squares regression, which also experiences high variance with small sample sizes, and use this regression framework to better understand the efficacy of PPI. Motivated by this, we present two new PPI-based techniques that leverage robust regressors to produce even lower variance estimators in the few-label regime

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Alexander Lobashev, Dmitry Guskov, Maria Larchenko, Mikhail Tamm

This paper presents a novel method for analyzing the latent space geometry of generative models, including statistical physics models and diffusion models, by reconstructing the Fisher information metric. The method approximates the posterior distribution of latent variables given generated samples and uses this to learn the log-partition function, which defines the Fisher metric for exponential families. Theoretical convergence guarantees are provided, and the method is validated on the Ising and TASEP models, outperforming existing baselines in reconstructing thermodynamic quantities. Applied to diffusion models, the method reveals a fractal structure of phase transitions in the latent space, characterized by abrupt changes in the Fisher metric. We demonstrate that while geodesic interpolations are approximately linear within individual phases, this linearity breaks down at phase boundaries, where the diffusion model exhibits a divergent Lipschitz constant with respect to the latent space. These findings provide new insights into the complex structure of diffusion model latent spaces and their connection to phenomena like phase transitions.Our source code is available at \url{https://github.com/alobashev/hessian-geometry-of-diffusion-models}.

General Machine Learning · Kernel methods

Jie Wang, March Boedihardjo, Yao Xie

Optimal transport has been very successful for various machine learning tasks; however, it is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Hence, dimensionality reduction is desirable when applied to high-dimensional data with low-dimensional structures. The kernel max-sliced (KMS) Wasserstein distance is developed for this purpose by finding an optimal nonlinear mapping that reduces data into $1$ dimension before computing the Wasserstein distance. However, its theoretical properties have not yet been fully developed. In this paper, we provide sharp finite-sample guarantees under milder technical assumptions compared with state-of-the-art for the KMS $p$-Wasserstein distance between two empirical distributions with $n$ samples for general $p\in[1,\infty)$. Algorithm-wise, we show that computing the KMS $2$-Wasserstein distance is NP-hard, and then we further propose a semidefinite relaxation (SDR) formulation (which can be solved efficiently in polynomial time) and provide a relaxation gap for the obtained solution. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the good performance of our scheme for high-dimensional two-sample testing.

Social Aspects · Accountability, Transparency, and Interpretability

Tuomas Oikarinen, Ge Yan, Lily Weng

Understanding the function of individual units in a neural network is an important building block for mechanistic interpretability. This is often done by generating a simple text explanation of the behavior of individual neurons or units. For these explanations to be useful, we must understand how reliable and truthful they are. In this work we unify many existing explanation evaluation methods under one mathematical framework. This allows us to compare and contrast existing evaluation metrics, understand the evaluation pipeline with increased clarity and apply existing statistical concepts on the evaluation. In addition, we propose two simple sanity checks on the evaluation metrics and show that many commonly used metrics fail these tests and do not change their score after massive changes to the concept labels. Based on our experimental and theoretical results, we propose guidelines that future evaluations should follow and identify a set of reliable evaluationmetrics.

Social Aspects · Accountability, Transparency, and Interpretability

Thibaud Gloaguen, Nikola Jovanović, Robin Staab, Martin Vechev

LLM watermarks stand out as a promising way to attribute ownership of LLM-generated text. One threat to watermark credibility comes from spoofing attacks, where an unauthorized third party forges the watermark, enabling it to falsely attribute arbitrary texts to a particular LLM. Despite recent work demonstrating that state-of-the-art schemes are, in fact, vulnerable to spoofing, no prior work has focused on post-hoc methods to discover spoofing attempts. In this work, we for the first time propose a reliable statistical method to distinguish spoofed from genuinely watermarked text, suggesting that current spoofing attacks are less effective than previously thought. In particular, we show that regardless of their underlying approach, all current learning-based spoofing methods consistently leave observable artifacts in spoofed texts, indicative of watermark forgery. We build upon these findings to propose rigorous statistical tests that reliably reveal the presence of such artifacts and thus demonstrate that a watermark has been spoofed. Our experimental evaluation shows high test power across all learning-based spoofing methods, providing insights into their fundamental limitations and suggesting a way to mitigate this threat.

Theory · Deep Learning

Noa Rubin, Kirsten Fischer, Javed Lindner, Inbar Seroussi, Zohar Ringel, Michael Krämer, Moritz Helias

Feature learning in neural networks is crucial for their expressive power and inductive biases, motivating various theoretical approaches. Some approaches describe network behavior after training through a change in kernel scale from initialization, resulting in a generalization power comparable to a Gaussian process. Conversely, in other approaches training results in the adaptation of the kernel to the data, involving directional changes to the kernel. The relationship and respective strengths of these two views have so far remained unresolved. This work presents a theoretical framework of multi-scale adaptive feature learning bridging these two views. Using methods from statistical mechanics, we derive analytical expressions for network output statistics which are valid across scaling regimes and in the continuum between them. A systematic expansion of the network's probability distribution reveals that mean-field scaling requires only a saddle-point approximation, while standard scaling necessitates additional correction terms. Remarkably, we find across regimes that kernel adaptation can be reduced to an effective kernel rescaling when predicting the mean network output in the special case of a linear network. However, for linear and non-linear networks, the multi-scale adaptive approach captures directional feature learning effects, providing richer insights than what could be recovered from a rescaling of the kernel alone.

General Machine Learning · Scalable Algorithms

Zhaolu Liu, Robert Peach, Mauricio Barahona

Kernel-based hypothesis tests offer a flexible, non-parametric tool to detect high-order interactions in multivariate data, beyond pairwise relationships. Yet the scalability of such tests is limited by the computationally demanding permutation schemes used to generate null approximations. Here we introduce a family of permutation-free high-order tests for joint independence and partial factorisations of $d$ variables. Our tests eliminate the need for permutation-based approximations by leveraging V-statistics and a novel cross-centring technique to yield test statistics with a standard normal limiting distribution under the null. We present implementations of the tests and showcase their efficacy and scalability through synthetic datasets. We also show applications inspired by causal discovery and feature selection, which highlight both the importance of high-order interactions in data and the need for efficient computational methods.

General Machine Learning

Sida Li, Nikolaos Ignatiadis

Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a powerful framework for enhancing statistical estimates by combining limited gold-standard data with machine learning (ML) predictions. While prior work has demonstrated PPI’s benefits for individual statistical problems, modern applications require answering numerous parallel statistical questions. We introduce Prediction-Powered Adaptive Shrinkage ($\texttt{PAS}$), a method that bridges PPI with empirical Bayes shrinkage to improve estimation of multiple means. $\texttt{PAS}$ debiases noisy ML predictions $\textit{within}$ each task and then borrows strength $\textit{across}$ tasks by using those same predictions as a reference point for shrinkage. The amount of shrinkage is determined by minimizing an unbiased estimate of risk, and we prove that this tuning strategy is asymptotically optimal. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that $\texttt{PAS}$ adapts to the reliability of the ML predictions and outperforms traditional and modern baselines in large-scale applications.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Yixin Cheng, Hongcheng Guo, Yangming Li, Leonid Sigal

Text watermarking aims to subtly embeds statistical signals into text by controlling the Large Language Model (LLM)'s sampling process, enabling watermark detectors to verify that the output was generated by the specified model. The robustness of these watermarking algorithms has become a key factor in evaluating their effectiveness. Current text watermarking algorithms embed watermarks in high-entropy tokens to ensure text quality. In this paper, we reveal that this seemingly benign design can be exploited by attackers, posing a significant risk to the robustness of the watermark. We introduce a generic efficient paraphrasing attack, the Self-Information Rewrite Attack (SIRA), which leverages the vulnerability by calculating the self-information of each token to identify potential pattern tokens and perform targeted attack. Our work exposes a widely prevalent vulnerability in current watermarking algorithms. The experimental results show SIRA achieves nearly 100\% attack success rates on seven recent watermarking methods with only \$0.88 per million tokens cost. Our approach does not require any access to the watermark algorithms or the watermarked LLM and can seamlessly transfer to any LLM as the attack model even mobile-level models. Our findings highlight the urgent need for more robust watermarking.

Deep Learning

Thanh Tran, Viet Hoang Tran, Thanh Chu, Trang Pham, Laurent Ghaoui, Tam Le, Tan Nguyen

Tree-Sliced methods have recently emerged as an alternative to the traditional Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance, replacing one-dimensional lines with tree-based metric spaces and incorporating a splitting mechanism for projecting measures. This approach enhances the ability to capture the topological structures of integration domains in Sliced Optimal Transport while maintaining low computational costs. Building on this foundation, we propose a novel nonlinear projectional framework for the Tree-Sliced Wasserstein (TSW) distance, substituting the linear projections in earlier versions with general projections, while ensuring the injectivity of the associated Radon Transform and preserving the well-definedness of the resulting metric. By designing appropriate projections, we construct efficient metrics for measures on both Euclidean spaces and spheres. Finally, we validate our proposed metric through extensive numerical experiments for Euclidean and spherical datasets. Applications include gradient flows, self-supervised learning, and generative models, where our methods demonstrate significant improvements over recent SW and TSW variants.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Louis Airale, Antonio Longa, Mattia Rigon, Andrea Passerini, Roberto Passerone

Graph transformers extend global self-attention to graph-structured data, achieving notable success in graph learning. Recently, random walk structural encoding (RWSE) has been found to further enhance their predictive power by encoding both structural and positional information into the edge representation. However, RWSE cannot always distinguish between edges that belong to different local graph patterns, which reduces its ability to capture the full structural complexity of graphs.This work introduces Simple Path Structural Encoding (SPSE), a novel method that utilizes simple path counts for edge encoding. We show theoretically and experimentally that SPSE overcomes the limitations of RWSE, providing a richer representation of graph structures, particularly in capturing local cyclic patterns. To make SPSE computationally tractable, we propose an efficient approximate algorithm for simple path counting.SPSE demonstrates significant performance improvements over RWSE on various benchmarks, including molecular and long-range graph datasets, achieving statistically significant gains in discriminative tasks. These results pose SPSE as a powerful edge encoding alternative for enhancing the expressivity of graph transformers.

General Machine Learning · Supervised Learning

Anqi Mao, Mehryar Mohri, Yutao Zhong

In applications with significant class imbalance or asymmetric costs, metrics such as the $F_\beta$-measure, AM measure, Jaccard similarity coefficient, and weighted accuracy offer more suitable evaluation criteria than standard binary classification loss. However, optimizing these metrics present significant computational and statistical challenges. Existing approaches often rely on the characterization of the Bayes-optimal classifier, and use threshold-based methods that first estimate class probabilities and then seek an optimal threshold. This leads to algorithms that are not tailored to restricted hypothesis sets and lack finite-sample performance guarantees. In this work, we introduce principled algorithms for optimizing generalized metrics, supported by $H$-consistency and finite-sample generalization bounds. Our approach reformulates metric optimization as a generalized cost-sensitive learning problem, enabling the design of novel surrogate loss functions with provable $H$-consistency guarantees. Leveraging this framework, we develop new algorithms, METRO (*Metric Optimization*), with strong theoretical performance guarantees. We report the results of experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of our methods compared to prior baselines.