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826篇论文匹配“Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty”
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Reinforcement Learning · Batch/Offline

Wenyu Chen, Yujia Zhang, Jianchao Zeng, Wei Guo, Yanbo Wang, Pinle Qin, Linli Ma

Cross-domain offline reinforcement learning leverages a source dataset to improve policy learning in a data-scarce target domain, but dynamics mismatch makes many source transitions kinematically infeasible and can cause negative transfer. Recent non-parametric geometric methods (e.g., standard optimal transport and k-nearest neighbors) avoid overfitting yet often yield only relative rankings under an implicit matching or retrieval budget, making performance sensitive to hand-tuned thresholds when the true cross-domain overlap is unknown. We formulate availability estimation as soft subset selection by learning a source reweighting that geometrically aligns with the target. We propose **R**obust **O**ffline unbalanced **O**ptimal **T**ransport (ROOT): (i) a robust ambiguity set for uncertainty under limited target samples, and (ii) an unbalanced transport objective that penalizes mass deviation, enabling a principled transport-or-discard mechanism. ROOT thus down-weights or discards high-cost source samples rather than forcing them onto the target support. Moreover, the induced weights decay exponentially with transport cost, guaranteeing outlier suppression. On D4RL dynamics-shift benchmarks, ROOT improves downstream offline RL and outperforms strong baselines on most tasks without task-specific threshold tuning.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Soyoung Park, Hwanjun Song, Sungsu Lim

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are rarely satisfied in practice. Moreover, achieving reliable UQ typically requires costly resampling or post-hoc calibration. To address these issues, we introduce Quantile-free Prediction Interval GNN (QpiGNN), a framework that builds on quantile regression (QR) to enable GNN-based UQ by directly optimizing coverage and interval width without requiring quantile inputs or post-processing. QpiGNN employs a dual-head architecture that decouples prediction and uncertainty, and is trained with label-only supervision through a quantile-free joint loss. This design allows efficient training and yields robust prediction intervals, with theoretical guarantees of asymptotic coverage and near-optimal width under mild assumptions. Experiments on 19 synthetic and real-world benchmarks show QpiGNN achieves average 22% higher coverage and 50% narrower intervals than baselines, while ensuring efficiency and robustness to noise and structural shifts.

General Machine Learning · Transfer, Multitask and Meta-learning

Xingyu Yang, Hanzhang Qu, Ye Cao, Jianfu Cao

Adaptive control of nonlinear systems under unknown disturbances requires learning algorithms aligned with the downstream control objective. While control-oriented meta-learning addresses the mismatch between regression-based identification and tracking performance, existing methods rely on Euclidean or static algebraic geometries that fail to capture the distributional structure of system uncertainties. We propose a framework that lifts adaptation into Wasserstein space, measuring parameter estimation errors as the optimal transport cost between estimated and true system behaviors. By constructing a Wasserstein Bregman divergence over representative task distributions, we use meta-learning to jointly optimize nonlinear feature representations, control gains, and transport geometry. This adaptation law learns an adaptation geometry that captures structural properties of the underlying physical system, implementing a physically grounded, data-driven attention mechanism. Closed-loop tracking simulations demonstrate that our controller achieves optimal performance on both fully-actuated and underactuated nonlinear planar rotorcraft, maintaining robustness under significant distributional shifts between training and testing conditions.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Siemen Herremans, Ali Anwar, Siegfried Mercelis

The performance of reinforcement learning (RL) in real-world applications can be hindered by the absence of robustness and safety in the learned policies. More specifically, an RL agent that trains in a certain Markov decision process (MDP) often struggles to perform well in MDPs that slightly deviate. To address this issue, we employ the framework of Robust MDPs (RMDPs) in a model-based setting and introduce a second learned transition model. Our method specifically incorporates an auxiliary pessimistic model, updated adversarially, to estimate the worst-case MDP within a Kullback-Leibler uncertainty set. In comparison to several existing works, our method does not impose any additional conditions on the training environment, such as the need for a parametric simulator. To test the effectiveness of the proposed pessimistic model in enhancing policy robustness, we integrate it into a practical RL algorithm, called Robust Model-Based Policy Optimization (RMBPO). Our experimental results indicate a notable improvement in policy robustness on high-dimensional control tasks, with the auxiliary model enhancing the performance of the learned policy in distorted MDPs, while maintaining the data-efficiency of the base algorithm. Our methodology is also compared against various other robust RL approaches. We further examine how pessimism is achieved by exploring the learned deviation between the proposed auxiliary world model and the nominal model. By introducing a pessimistic world model and demonstrating its role in improving policy robustness, our research presents a general methodology for robust RL in a model-based setting.

Deep Learning · Generative Models and Autoencoders

Zekai Li, Ji Liu, Yiqing Huang, Ziqiong Liu, Dong Li, Emad Barsoum

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) support parallel text generation via iterative denoising, yet inference remains latency-heavy because many steps are spent on redundant refinement and repeated remasking of tokens whose final values are already determined. Prior acceleration methods mainly depend on step-local confidence heuristics or fixed schedules, which are sensitive to prompt and task variation and ignore strong positional effects within a sequence. We cast diffusion decoding as a dynamic control problem and show that token-wise denoising trajectories provide the key signal for reliable control. We propose a trace-aware decoding framework with two components. First, Temporal-Spatial Parallel Decoding (TSPD) uses a lightweight temporal-spatial correctness sensor that consumes per-token trajectory features, including confidence, entropy, and momentum, together with token position, to decide when a token has converged and can be safely fixed. Second, we introduce ]Confidence Extrapolation (CE)}], a training-free state-space module that forecasts future logit trends with uncertainty to support proactive decisions, including safe look-ahead and targeted stabilization when trajectories are oscillatory or underconfident. Together, TSPD and CE reduce unnecessary denoising iterations while preserving output quality, and they compose cleanly with system optimizations such as KV caching.

General Machine Learning · Online Learning, Active Learning and Bandits

Nitin Bisht, Linjiang Guo, Xiuwen Gong, Huan Huo, Guandong Xu

Recommender systems (RS) may suffer from feedback-driven exposure concentration, where repeated engagement optimization collapses exposure onto a narrow set of categories, reducing catalog coverage and degrading long-horizon learning. Existing methods are often post hoc and typically lack principled uncertainty-aware risk estimates for regulating exposure under endogenous feedback. We therefore propose **CORAL**, a model-agnostic, uncertainty-aware framework that formulates exposure regulation as a constrained sequential decision problem. Specifically, we model self-reinforcing interactions to construct an exposure-saturation state, then derive an upper confidence bound on category-conditioned violation risk from observed history and incorporate it through a state-dependent penalty for adaptive intervention near saturation. Moreover, we provide theoretical guarantees for risk bounds, finite-time recovery, and efficient long-term performance. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets and controlled simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, which aligns with our theoretical analysis. Our code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Coral_Rec-8400.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Anton Conrad, Eric Moulines, julien perez

In multi-target regression and multi-class classification, uncertainty is inherently multivariate: prediction regions must capture joint dependencies across correlated outputs. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free guarantees, yet extending it to vector-valued outputs remains challenging—scalar aggregation discards geometric structure, while optimal transport (OT) approaches are computationally demanding and sensitive to outliers. We introduce two conformal methods based on geometric quantiles and spatial ranks: Geometric Conformalized Quantile Regression (GCQR) constructs prediction regions from learned conditional geometric quantiles, while Geometric Rank Conformal Prediction (GRCP) uses the radial rank of vector-valued conformity scores as the nonconformity measure. We propose multiple estimators offering different tradeoffs between computational cost and adaptivity to feature-dependent heterogeneity, with scalable learning via partially input-convex neural networks. On multi-target regression and multi-class classification benchmarks, GCQR and GRCP attain near-nominal coverage with consistently tighter prediction regions than scalarized and multivariate baselines.

Erdun Gao, Jake Fawkes, Dino Sejdinovic

Estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) is constrained by the high cost of obtaining outcome measurements, making active learning essential. However, conventional strategies suffer from a fundamental objective mismatch: they reduce uncertainty in model parameters or observable outcomes rather than the unobservable causal quantities of interest. We address this via the principle of causal objective alignment, positing that acquisition functions must target unobservables like potential outcomes or CATE directly. We operationalize this through Causal-EPIG, a framework adapting Expected Predictive Information Gain to quantify uncertainty reduction in causal quantities. We derive two distinct strategies: a comprehensive approach that robustly models the full causal mechanisms via the joint potential outcomes, and a focused approach that directly targets the CATE estimand for maximum sample efficiency. We provide theoretical justification for our framework, establishing a formal link between our information-theoretic objective and the minimization of CATE estimation error. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our strategies consistently outperform standard baselines, and crucially, reveal that the optimal strategy is context-dependent, contingent on the base estimator and data complexity. Our framework thus provides a principled guide for sample-efficient CATE estimation in practice.

Applications · Robotics

Wenhao Li, Xiu Su, Yichao Cao, Hongyan Xu, Xiaobo Xia, Shan You, Yi Chen, Chang Xu

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities and generalization in embodied manipulation. However, their decision-making relies on a fast, instinctive process that lacks deliberation. This strategy often leads to suboptimal or catastrophic actions when facing complex or ambiguous scenarios that require greater consideration. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{VLA-ATTC}, a framework that endows VLA models with adaptive test-time compute (TTC). VLA-ATTC employs an uncertainty-based ``cognitive clutch'' to dynamically transition from reflexive execution to a TTC deliberation phase when necessary. During TTC phase, a novel \textbf{Relative Action Critic} (RAC) model identifies the optimal action from generated candidates via pairwise comparisons. This relative mechanism replaces unstable absolute value estimation, significantly simplifying the learning objective. Furthermore, we introduce an efficient sampling strategy to amortize computational costs and an automated data pipeline that curates preference pairs without manual annotation. On the LIBERO-LONG benchmark, VLA-ATTC reduces the failure rate of the SOTA model PI0.5 by over 50\%.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Yunfei Xie, Kevin Wang, Bobby Cheng, Jianzhu Yao, Zhizhou Sha, Alexander Duffy, Yihan Xi, Hongyuan Mei, Cheston Tan, Chen Wei 等

Multi-turn, multi-agent LLM game evaluations often exhibit substantial run-to-run variance. In long-horizon interactions, small early deviations compound across turns and are amplified by multi-agent coupling, biasing win rate estimates and destabilizing comparative rankings across repeated tournaments. Prompt choice exacerbates this by inducing different effective policies and interaction dynamics. We address both instability and underperformance in interactive games with MEMO (Memory-augmented Model context optimization), a self-play framework that treats inference-time context as an optimizable, agentic object by coupling retention and exploration. Retention maintains a persistent memory bank that distills self-play trajectories into structured insights, consolidates them via CRUD-style updates, and injects them as priors during subsequent play. Exploration performs tournament-style prompt evolution with uncertainty-aware selection via TrueSkill, and uses prioritized replay to revisit vital states for sample-efficient coverage. Across five text-based games, MEMO raises mean win rate from 24.9% → 49.5% for GPT-4o-mini and 21.7% → 44.3% for Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct using a mere budget of 2000 self-play games per task; reducing run-to-run dispersion of end-to-end outcomes and yielding more reliable rankings under prompt stratification. These results suggest that substantial headroom in multi-agent LLM game performance and robustness can be unlocked, with MEMO achieving gains in negotiation games and imperfect-information settings, while RL remains more effective in perfect-information games. Anonymous project website available: https://79ac811fdcc9cd5679a2258a180589ef.github.io

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Yuesen Tang, Yiming Yang, Tengfei Bao, Yu Tong

Recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have advanced cross-modal reasoning by extending Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting to visual tasks. However, existing methods still rely heavily on explicit textual reasoning steps, leading to information loss, unstable perception–reasoning interaction, and high computational cost. Inspired by human cognition, we argue that effective visual reasoning emerges from a dynamic interplay between perception and latent thought, rather than a purely linear verbalization process. Motivated by this insight, we propose Latent-Driven Progressive Visual Reasoning (LDPVR), a framework that formulates multimodal reasoning as a Markov Chain of Recursive State Simplification, where explicit textual states are progressively refined under the guidance of latent transitions. Central to LDPVR is Interleaved Latent Grounding, which leverages latent semantic intent to actively retrieve fine-grained visual evidence and drive robust state evolution, enabling the model to iteratively reduce uncertainty before committing to simplified textual states. To optimize this process, we introduce a three-stage curriculum combining supervised fine-tuning, latent-text distillation, and reinforcement learning via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experiments on six multimodal reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that LDPVR improves reasoning accuracy while maintaining low inference latency. Code will be made public.

Probabilistic Methods · Everything Else

Kaizheng Wang, Ghifari Adam Faza, Fabio Cuzzolin, Siu Lun Chau, David Moens, Hans Hallez

Credal predictors are epistemic-uncertainty-aware models that produce a convex set of probabilistic predictions. They provide a principled framework for quantifying predictive epistemic uncertainty (EU) and have been shown to improve model robustness across a range of settings. However, most state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods primarily define EU as disagreement induced by random training initializations, which mainly reflects sensitivity to optimization randomness rather than uncertainty from more substantive sources. In response, we formulate EU as disagreement between models trained under different degrees of relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption between the training and test distributions. Building on this idea, we propose *CreDRO*, which learns an ensemble of plausible models via distributionally robust optimization. As a result, CreDRO captures EU arising not only from training randomness but also from informative disagreement due to potential train–test distribution shifts. Empirically, CreDRO consistently outperforms SOTA credal approaches on downstream tasks, including out-of-distribution detection on extensive benchmarks and selective classification in medical settings.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Zanlin Ni, Shenzhi Wang, Yang Yue, Tianyu Yu, Weilin Zhao, Yeguo Hua, Tianyi Chen, Jun Song, YuCheng, Bo Zheng 等

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) break the rigid left-to-right constraint of traditional LLMs, enabling token generation in arbitrary orders. Intuitively, this flexibility implies a solution space that strictly supersets the fixed autoregressive trajectory, theoretically unlocking superior reasoning potential. Indeed, for specific constraint satisfaction tasks (e.g., sudoku puzzles), this capability has proven to be highly advantageous. However, in this paper, we reveal that for general reasoning tasks (e.g., mathematics and coding), arbitrary order generation may in fact limit the reasoning potential of dLLMs. We find that dLLMs tend to exploit this order flexibility to bypass high-uncertainty tokens that are crucial for exploration, leading to a premature collapse of solution coverage. This observation motivates a rethink of RL approaches for dLLMs, where considerable complexities, such as handling combinatorial trajectories and intractable likelihoods, are often devoted to preserving this flexibility. We demonstrate that effective reasoning can be better elicited by simply forgoing arbitrary order and applying standard Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) instead. Our approach, **JustGRPO**, is minimalist yet surprisingly effective (e.g., 89.1% accuracy on GSM8K) while fully retaining the parallel decoding ability of dLLMs.

Reinforcement Learning · Multi-agent

Dan Qiao, Binbin Chen, Fengyu Cai, Jianlong Chen, Wenhao Li, Fuxin Jiang, Zuzhi Chen, Tieying Zhang, Hongyuan Zha, Baoxiang Wang

Multi-Agent Debate (MAD) has shown promise in leveraging collective intelligence to improve reasoning and reduce hallucinations, yet it remains unclear how information exchange shapes the underlying ability. Empirically, MAD exhibits paradoxical phenomena, such as accuracy improvement accompanied by substantial increase in token entropy, and remarkable divergence between homogeneous and heterogeneous model combinations. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian uncertainty analysis framework for MAD, which decomposes total predictive uncertainty into epistemic uncertainty reducible by debate context and aleatoric uncertainty induced by internal model noise. Across multiple model configurations, we find that effective debate hinges on achieving high epistemic gain under controlled aleatoric cost. Building on this insight, we design an uncertainty-guided multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithm that explicitly optimizes aleatoric noise reduction and epistemic information utilization. Experiments show that our training significantly improves post-debate accuracy and stability, and enhances individual reasoning beyond single-agent RL, providing a unified Bayesian uncertainty perspective for understanding and improving MAD.

Deep Learning · Graph Neural Networks

Jintao Li, Yong-Yi Wang, Zheng-An Wang, Heng Fan

Diffusion-based neural solvers for combinatorial optimization repeatedly re-evaluate dense edge/factor interactions, making inference expensive in wall-clock time and often memory-bound at scale. We introduce LoRe, a training-free, inference-time drop-in wrapper that enforces per-step interaction-evaluation budgeting: at each iteration, it evaluates only a fixed fraction of interactions by dynamically routing computation to high-conflict or high-uncertainty interactions, instead of using a fixed sparsification (e.g., static kNN graphs or static masks). Under fully inclusive end-to-end wall-clock accounting, LoRe substantially improves scalability on maximum independent set, pushing feasible inference beyond the baseline out-of-memory boundary by $2.5\times$ while delivering $4$--$5\times$ speedup, about 81% peak-memory reduction, and 86.9% MIS-size retention. As an auxiliary study on large-scale TSP, LoRe achieves $7.5\times$ median speedup at $n=1000$ with 97% median memory reduction and a median gap difference of $-0.22$ percentage points versus the baseline, supporting its generality across problem families.

Reinforcement Learning · Inverse

Raphaël Baur, Yannick Metz, Maria Gkoulta, Mennatallah El-Assady, Giorgia Ramponi, Thomas Kleine Buening

Reward learning typically relies on a single feedback type or combines multiple feedback types using manually weighted loss terms. Currently, it remains unclear how to jointly learn reward functions from heterogeneous feedback types such as demonstrations, comparisons, ratings, rankings, and stops that provide qualitatively different signals. We address this challenge by formulating reward learning from multiple feedback types as Bayesian inference over a shared latent reward function, where each feedback type contributes information through an explicit likelihood. We introduce a scalable amortized variational inference approach that learns a shared reward encoder and feedback-specific likelihood decoders and is trained by optimizing a single evidence lower bound. Our approach avoids reducing feedback to a common intermediate representation and eliminates the need for manual loss balancing. Across discrete and continuous-control benchmarks, we show that jointly inferred reward posteriors outperform single-type baselines, exploit complementary information across feedback types, and yield policies that are more robust to environment perturbations. The inferred reward uncertainty further provides interpretable signals for analyzing model confidence and consistency across feedback types.

Deep Learning · Large Language Models

Fanqi Kong, Jiayi Zhang, Mingyi Deng, Chenglin Wu, Yuyu Luo, Bang Liu

Real-world user requests to LLM agents are often underspecified. Agents must interact to acquire missing information and make correct downstream decisions. However, current multi-turn GRPO-based methods often rely on trajectory-level reward computation, which leads to credit assignment problems and insufficient advantage signals within rollout groups. A feasible approach is to identify valuable interaction turns at a fine granularity to drive more targeted learning. To address this, we introduce InfoPO, which frames multi-turn interaction as a process of active uncertainty reduction and computes an information-gain reward that credits turns whose feedback measurably changes the agent’s subsequent action distribution compared to a masked-feedback counterfactual. It then combines this signal with task outcomes via an adaptive variance-gated fusion to identify information importance while maintaining task oriented goal direction. Across diverse tasks including intent clarification, collaborative coding, and tool-augmented decision making, InfoPO consistently outperforms prompting and multi-turn RL baselines. It also demonstrates robustness under user simulator shifts and generalizes effectively to environment interactive tasks. Overall, InfoPO provides a principled and scalable mechanism for optimizing complex agent user collaboration.

Social Aspects · Robustness

Sura Alhanouti, Guzin Bayraksan, Parinaz Naghizadeh

Humans facing algorithmic decision systems have been found to ``game'' them by altering their input data (at a cost to them) in order to favorably change the algorithmic outcomes they receive (at a cost to the algorithm). The growing literature on strategic classification seeks to develop robust machine learning algorithms that account for, and reduce, this strategic behavior. A limitation of these existing works is that they assume the cost of strategic behavior to be fixed and independent of the classifier's decision. In practice, however, manipulation costs evolve and depend on past algorithmic decisions: today's decisions influence tomorrow's costs. This paper proposes and analyzes a two-stage robust optimization framework with a decision-dependent uncertainty set to capture such dependencies. We highlight that awareness of policy-dependent costs not only reduces uncertainty, but also better curtails gaming of the algorithmic system over time.

General Machine Learning · Data

Suorong Yang, Fangjian Su, Hai Gan, Ziqi Ye, Jie Li, Baile Xu, Furao Shen, Soujanya Poria

Dynamic Data selection aims to accelerate training by prioritizing informative samples during online training. However, existing methods typically rely on task-specific handcrafted metrics or static/snapshot-based criteria to estimate sample importance, limiting scalability across learning paradigms and making it difficult to capture the evolving utility of data throughout training. To address this challenge, we propose Data Agent, an end-to-end dynamic data selection framework that formulates data selection as a training-aware sequential decision-making problem. The agent learns a sample-wise selection policy that co-evolves with model optimization, guided by a composite reward that integrates loss-based difficulty and confidence-based uncertainty signals. The reward signals capture complementary objectives of optimization impact and information gain, together with a tuning-free adaptive weighting mechanism that balances these signals over training. Extensive experiments across a wide range of datasets and architectures demonstrate that Data Agent consistently accelerates training while preserving or improving performance, e.g., reducing costs by over 50\% on ImageNet-1k and MMLU with lossless performance. Moreover, its dataset-agnostic formulation and modular reward make it plug-and-play across tasks and scenarios, e.g., robustness to noisy datasets, highlighting its potential in real-world scenarios.

Reinforcement Learning · Deep RL

Zhibin Duan, Guowei Rong, Zhuo Li, Bo Chen, Mingyuan Zhou, Dandan Guo

Reward models learned from human preferences are central to aligning large language models (LLMs) via reinforcement learning from human feedback, yet they are often vulnerable to reward hacking due to noisy annotations and systematic biases such as response length or style. We propose Bayesian Non-Negative Reward Model (BNRM), a principled reward modeling framework that integrates non-negative factor analysis into Bradley–Terry (BT) preference model. BNRM represents rewards through a sparse, non-negative latent factor generative process that operates at two complementary levels: instance-specific latent variables induce disentangled reward representations, while sparsity over global latent factors acts as an implicit debiasing mechanism that suppresses spurious correlations. Together, this disentanglement-then-debiasing structure enables robust uncertainty-aware reward learning. To scale BNRM to modern LLMs, we develop an amortized variational inference network conditioned on deep model representations, allowing efficient end-to-end training. Extensive empirical results demonstrate that BNRM substantially mitigates reward over-optimization, improves robustness under distribution shifts, and yields more interpretable reward decompositions than strong baselines.