论文检索

Physical Models · Climate

Prakhar Srivastava, Ruihan Yang, Gavin Kerrigan, Gideon Dresdner, Jeremy McGibbon, Christopher S. Bretherton, Stephan Mandt

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround where a low-resolution prediction is improved using statistical approaches. Unlike traditional computer vision tasks, weather and climate applications require capturing the accurate conditional distribution of high-resolution given low-resolution patterns to assure reliable ensemble averages and unbiased estimates of extreme events, such as heavy rain. This work extends recent video diffusion models to precipitation super-resolution, employing a deterministic downscaler followed by a temporally-conditioned diffusion model to capture noise characteristics and high-frequency patterns. We test our approach on FV3GFS output, an established large-scale global atmosphere model, and compare it against six state-of-the-art baselines. Our analysis, capturing CRPS, MSE, precipitation distributions, and qualitative aspects using California and the Himalayas as examples, establishes our method as a new standard for data-driven precipitation downscaling.

Statistical Methods

Yanfei Zhou, Matteo Sesia

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect potential model limitations or biases. This can be useful to find a practical compromise between efficiency---by providing informative predictions---and algorithmic fairness---by ensuring equalized coverage for the most sensitive groups. We demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of this method on simulated and real data sets.

Theory · Everything Else

Noah Amsel, Tyler Chen, Anne Greenbaum, Cameron Musco, Christopher Musco

Approximating the action of a matrix function $f(\vec{A})$ on a vector $\vec{b}$ is an increasingly important primitive in machine learning, data science, and statistics, with applications such as sampling high dimensional Gaussians, Gaussian process regression and Bayesian inference, principle component analysis, and approximating Hessian spectral densities.Over the past decade, a number of algorithms enjoying strong theoretical guarantees have been proposed for this task.Many of the most successful belong to a family of algorithms called Krylov subspace methods.Remarkably, a classic Krylov subspace method, called the Lanczos method for matrix functions (Lanczos-FA), frequently outperforms newer methods in practice. Our main result is a theoretical justification for this finding: we show that, for a natural class of rational functions, Lanczos-FA matches the error of the best possible Krylov subspace method up to a multiplicative approximation factor. The approximation factor depends on the degree of $f(x)$'s denominator and the condition number of $\vec{A}$, but not on the number of iterations $k$. Our result provides a strong justification for the excellent performance of Lanczos-FA, especially on functions that are well approximated by rationals, such as the matrix square root.

Causality

Feng Xie, Zhen Yao, Lin Xie, Yan Zeng, Zhi Geng

We consider the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from purely observational data in the bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR), where some invalid instruments, as well as unmeasured confounding, usually exist. To address this problem, most existing methods attempt to find proper valid instrumental variables (IVs) for the target causal effect by expert knowledge or by assuming that the causal model is a one-directional MR model. As such, in this paper, we first theoretically investigate the identification of the bi-directional MR from observational data. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which valid IV sets are correctly identified such that the bi-directional MR model is identifiable, including the causal directions of a pair of phenotypes (i.e., the treatment and outcome).Moreover, based on the identification theory, we develop a cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets and estimate the causal effects of interest.We theoretically demonstrate the correctness of the proposed algorithm.Experimental results show the effectiveness of our method for estimating causal effects in both one-directional and bi-directional MR models.

Statistical Methods

Lei Shi, Waverly Wei, Jingshen Wang

Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive randomization (CARA) designs are gaining increasing attention. These designs combine the advantages of randomized experiments with the ability to adaptively revise treatment allocations based on data collected across multiple stages, enhancing estimation efficiency. Yet, CARA designs often assume that primary outcomes are immediately observable, which is not the case in many clinical scenarios where there is a delay in observing primary outcomes. This assumption can lead to significant missingness and inefficient estimation of treatment effects. To tackle this practical challenge, we propose a CARA experimental strategy integrating delayed primary outcomes with immediately observed surrogate outcomes. Surrogate outcomes are intermediate clinical outcomes that are predictive or correlated with the primary outcome of interest. Our design goal is to improve the estimation efficiency of the average treatment effect (ATE) of the primary outcome utilizing surrogate outcomes. From a methodological perspective, our approach offers two benefits: First, we accommodate arm and covariates-dependent delay mechanisms without imposing any parametric modeling assumptions on the distribution of outcomes. Second, when primary outcomes are not fully observed, surrogate outcomes can guide the adaptive treatment allocation rule. From a theoretical standpoint, we prove the semiparametric efficiency bound of estimating ATE under delayed primary outcomes while incorporating surrogate outcomes. We show that the ATE estimator under our proposed design strategy attains this semiparametric efficiency bound and achieves asymptotic normality. Through theoretical investigations and a synthetic HIV study, we show that our design is more efficient than the design without incorporating any surrogate information.

Haoxuan Li, Yue Liu, Zhi Geng, Kun Zhang

Developing fair automated machine learning algorithms is critical in making safe and trustworthy decisions. Many causality-based fairness notions have been proposed to address the above issues by quantifying the causal connections between sensitive attributes and decisions, and when the true causal graph is fully known, certain algorithms that achieve interventional fairness have been proposed. However, when the true causal graph is unknown, it is still challenging to effectively and efficiently exploit partially directed acyclic graphs (PDAGs) to achieve interventional fairness. To exploit the PDAGs for achieving interventional fairness, previous methods have been built on variable selection or causal effect identification, but limited to reduced prediction accuracy or strong assumptions. In this paper, we propose a general min-max optimization framework that can achieve interventional fairness with promising prediction accuracy and can be extended to maximally oriented PDAGs (MPDAGs) with added background knowledge. Specifically, we first estimate all possible treatment effects of sensitive attributes on a given prediction model from all possible adjustment sets of sensitive attributes via an efficient local approach. Next, we propose to alternatively update the prediction model and possible estimated causal effects, where the prediction model is trained via a min-max loss to control the worst-case fairness violations. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets verify the superiority of our methods. To benefit the research community, we have released our project at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/NeurIPS24-Interventional-Fairness-with-PDAGs.

Privacy

Saptarshi Roy, Zehua Wang, Ambuj Tewari

We consider the problem of model selection in a high-dimensional sparse linear regression model under privacy constraints. We propose a differentially private (DP) best subset selection method with strong statistical utility properties by adopting the well-known exponential mechanism for selecting the best model. To achieve computational expediency, we propose an efficient Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and under certain regularity conditions, we establish that it enjoys polynomial mixing time to its stationary distribution. As a result, we also establish both approximate differential privacy and statistical utility for the estimates of the mixed Metropolis-Hastings chain. Finally, we perform some illustrative experiments on simulated data showing that our algorithm can quickly identify active features under reasonable privacy budget constraints.

Fairness

Drago Plecko, Elias Bareinboim

As society increasingly relies on AI-based tools for decision-making in socially sensitive domains, investigating fairness and equity of such automated systems has become a critical field of inquiry. Most of the literature in fair machine learning focuses on defining and achieving fairness criteria in the context of prediction, while not explicitly focusing on how these predictions may be used later on in the pipeline. For instance, if commonly used criteria, such as independence or sufficiency, are satisfied for a prediction score $S$ used for binary classification, they need not be satisfied after an application of a simple thresholding operation on $S$ (as commonly used in practice). In this paper, we take an important step to address this issue in numerous statistical and causal notions of fairness. We introduce the notion of a margin complement, which measures how much a prediction score $S$ changes due to a thresholding operation.We then demonstrate that the marginal difference in the optimal 0/1 predictor $\widehat Y$ between groups, written $P(\hat y \mid x_1) - P(\hat y \mid x_0)$, can be causally decomposed into the influences of $X$ on the $L_2$-optimal prediction score $S$ and the influences of $X$ on the margin complement $M$, along different causal pathways (direct, indirect, spurious). We then show that under suitable causal assumptions, the influences of $X$ on the prediction score $S$ are equal to the influences of $X$ on the true outcome $Y$. This yields a new decomposition of the disparity in the predictor $\widehat Y$ that allows us to disentangle causal differences inherited from the true outcome $Y$ that exists in the real world vs. those coming from the optimization procedure itself. This observation highlights the need for more regulatory oversight due to the potential for bias amplification, and to address this issue we introduce new notions of weak and strong business necessity, together with an algorithm for assessing whether these notions are satisfied. We apply our method to three real-world datasets and derive new insights on bias amplification in prediction and decision-making.

Statistical Methods

Jiacheng Miao, Qiongshi Lu

Machine learning (ML) is playing an increasingly important role in scientific research. In conjunction with classical statistical approaches, ML-assisted analytical strategies have shown great promise in accelerating research findings. This has also opened a whole field of methodological research focusing on integrative approaches that leverage both ML and statistics to tackle data science challenges. One type of study that has quickly gained popularity employs ML to predict unobserved outcomes in massive samples, and then uses predicted outcomes in downstream statistical inference. However, existing methods designed to ensure the validity of this type of post-prediction inference are limited to very basic tasks such as linear regression analysis. This is because any extension of these approaches to new, more sophisticated statistical tasks requires task-specific algebraic derivations and software implementations, which ignores the massive library of existing software tools already developed for the same scientific problem given observed data. This severely constrains the scope of application for post-prediction inference. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel statistical framework named PSPS for task-agnostic ML-assisted inference. It provides a post-prediction inference solution that can be easily plugged into almost any established data analysis routines. It delivers valid and efficient inference that is robust to arbitrary choice of ML model, allowing nearly all existing statistical frameworks to be incorporated into the analysis of ML-predicted data. Through extensive experiments, we showcase our method’s validity, versatility, and superiority compared to existing approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/qlu-lab/psps.

Probabilistic Methods

Vladimir Kostic, Grégoire Pacreau, Giacomo Turri, Pietro Novelli, Karim Lounici, Massimiliano Pontil

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract key statistics such as conditional quantiles, mean, and covariance. It offers streamlined learning via a single unconditional training phase, allowing efficient inference without the need for retraining even when conditioning changes. By leveraging the approximation capabilities of neural networks, NCP efficiently handles a wide variety of complex probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees that ensure both optimization consistency and statistical accuracy. In experiments, we show that NCP with a 2-hidden-layer network matches or outperforms leading methods. This demonstrates that a a minimalistic architecture with a theoretically grounded loss can achieve competitive results, even in the face of more complex architectures.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Kernel methods

Alexander Modell

In this paper, we derive *entrywise* error bounds for low-rank approximations of kernel matrices obtained using the truncated eigen-decomposition (or singular value decomposition). While this approximation is well-known to be optimal with respect to the spectral and Frobenius norm error, little is known about the statistical behaviour of individual entries. Our error bounds fill this gap. A key technical innovation is a delocalisation result for the eigenvectors of the kernel matrix corresponding to small eigenvalues, which takes inspiration from the field of Random Matrix Theory. Finally, we validate our theory with an empirical study of a collection of synthetic and real-world datasets.

Deep Learning · Theory

Jeongjin Park, Nicole Yang, Nisha Chandramoorthy

Conventional notions of generalization often fail to describe the ability of learned models to capture meaningful information from dynamical data. A neural network that learns complex dynamics with a small test error may still fail to reproduce its \emph{physical} behavior, including associated statistical moments and Lyapunov exponents. To address this gap, we propose an ergodic theoretic approach to generalization of complex dynamical models learned from time series data. Our main contribution is to define and analyze generalization of a broad suite of neural representations of classes of ergodic systems, including chaotic systems, in a way that captures emulating underlying invariant, physical measures. Our results provide theoretical justification for why regression methods for generators of dynamical systems (Neural ODEs) fail to generalize, and why their statistical accuracy improves upon adding Jacobian information during training. We verify our results on a number of ergodic chaotic systems and neural network parameterizations, including MLPs, ResNets, Fourier Neural layers, and RNNs.

Computational Biology

Leon Klein, Frank Noe

The generation of equilibrium samples of molecular systems has been a long-standing problem in statistical physics. Boltzmann Generators are a generative machine learning method that addresses this issue by learning a transformation via a normalizing flow from a simple prior distribution to the target Boltzmann distribution of interest. Recently, flow matching has been employed to train Boltzmann Generators for small molecular systems in Cartesian coordinates. We extend this work and propose a first framework for Boltzmann Generators that are transferable across chemical space, such that they predict zero-shot Boltzmann distributions for test molecules without being retraining for these systems. These transferable Boltzmann Generators allow approximate sampling from the target distribution of unseen systems, as well as efficient reweighting to the target Boltzmann distribution. The transferability of the proposed framework is evaluated on dipeptides, where we show that it generalizes efficiently to unseen systems.Furthermore, we demonstrate that our proposed architecture enhances the efficiency of Boltzmann Generators trained on single molecular systems.

Graph Neural Networks

Paolo Pellizzoni, Till Hendrik Schulz, Dexiong Chen, Karsten Borgwardt

Graph neural networks (GNNs) employing message passing for graph classification are inherently limited by the expressive power of the Weisfeiler-Leman (WL) test for graph isomorphism. Node individualization schemes, which assign unique identifiers to nodes (e.g., by adding random noise to features), are a common approach for achieving universal expressiveness. However, the ability of GNNs endowed with individualization schemes to generalize beyond the training data is still an open question. To address this question, this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the sample complexity of such GNNs from a statistical learning perspective, employing Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimension and covering number bounds. We demonstrate that node individualization schemes that are permutation-equivariant result in lower sample complexity, and design novel individualization schemes that exploit these results. As an application of this analysis, we also develop a novel architecture that can perform substructure identification (i.e., subgraph isomorphism) while having a lower VC dimension compared to competing methods. Finally, our theoretical findings are validated experimentally on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Statistical Methods

Hamidreza Hashempoorikderi, Wan Choi

This paper advances temporal reasoning within dynamically changing high-dimensional noisy observations, focusing on a latent space that characterizes the nonlinear dynamics of objects in their environment. We introduce the *Gated Inference Network* (GIN), an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for state space models (SSMs) with nonlinear state transitions and emissions. GIN disentangles two latent representations: one representing the object derived from a nonlinear mapping model, and another representing the latent state describing its dynamics. This disentanglement enables direct state estimation and missing data imputation as the world evolves. To infer the latent state, we utilize a deep extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach that integrates a novel compact RNN structure to compute both the Kalman Gain (KG) and smoothing gain (SG), completing the data flow. This design results in a computational cost per step that is linearly faster than EKF but introduces issues such as the exploding gradient problem. To mitigate the exploding gradients caused by the compact RNN structure in our model, we propose a specialized learning method that ensures stable training and inference. The model is then trained end-to-end on videos depicting a diverse range of simulated and real-world physical systems, and outperforms its ounterparts —RNNs, autoregressive models, and variational approaches— in state estimation and missing data imputation tasks.

Statistical Methods

Josh Givens, Henry Reeve, Song Liu, Katarzyna Reluga

The conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) can provide insight into the effect of a treatment beyond the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). This ability to provide information over multiple quantiles of the response makes the CQTE especially valuable in cases where the effect of a treatment is not well-modelled by a location shift, even conditionally on the covariates. Nevertheless, the estimation of the CQTE is challenging and often depends upon the smoothness of the individual quantiles as a function of the covariates rather than smoothness of the CQTE itself. This is in stark contrast to the CATE where it is possible to obtain high-quality estimates which have less dependency upon the smoothness of the nuisance parameters when the CATE itself is smooth. Moreover, relative smoothness of the CQTE lacks the interpretability of smoothness of the CATE making it less clear whether it is a reasonable assumption to make. We combine the desirable properties of the CATE and CQTE by considering a new estimand, the conditional quantile comparator (CQC). The CQC not only retains information about the whole treatment distribution, similar to the CQTE, but also having more natural examples of smoothness and is able to leverage simplicity in an auxiliary estimand. We provide finite sample bounds on the error of our estimator, demonstrating its ability to exploit simplicity. We validate our theory in numerical simulations which show that our method produces more accurate estimates than baselines. Finally, we apply our methodology to a study on the effect of employment incentives on earnings across different age groups. We see that our method is able to reveal heterogeneity of the effect across different quantiles.

Computer Vision

Xi Zhang, Xiaolin Wu

It is customary to deploy uniform scalar quantization in the end-to-end optimized Neural image compression methods, instead of more powerful vector quantization, due to the high complexity of the latter. Lattice vector quantization (LVQ), on the other hand, presents a compelling alternative, which can exploit inter-feature dependencies more effectively while keeping computational efficiency almost the same as scalar quantization. However, traditional LVQ structures are designed/optimized for uniform source distributions, hence nonadaptive and suboptimal for real source distributions of latent code space for Neural image compression tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel learning method to overcome this weakness by designing the rate-distortion optimal lattice vector quantization (OLVQ) codebooks with respect to the sample statistics of the latent features to be compressed. By being able to better fit the LVQ structures to any given latent sample distribution, the proposed OLVQ method improves the rate-distortion performances of the existing quantization schemes in neural image compression significantly, while retaining the amenability of uniform scalar quantization.

Interpretability

Geng Chen, Yinxu Jia, Guanghui Wang, Changliang Zou

The widespread use of black box prediction methods has sparked an increasing interest in algorithm/model-agnostic approaches for quantifying goodness-of-fit, with direct ties to specification testing, model selection and variable importance assessment. A commonly used framework involves defining a predictiveness criterion, applying a cross-fitting procedure to estimate the predictiveness, and utilizing the difference in estimated predictiveness between two models as the test statistic. However, even after standardization, the test statistic typically fails to converge to a non-degenerate distribution under the null hypothesis of equal goodness, leading to what is known as the degeneracy issue. To addresses this degeneracy issue, we present a simple yet effective device, Zipper. It draws inspiration from the strategy of additional splitting of testing data, but encourages an overlap between two testing data splits in predictiveness evaluation. Zipper binds together the two overlapping splits using a slider parameter that controls the proportion of overlap. Our proposed test statistic follows an asymptotically normal distribution under the null hypothesis for any fixed slider value, guaranteeing valid size control while enhancing power by effective data reuse. Finite-sample experiments demonstrate that our procedure, with a simple choice of the slider, works well across a wide range of settings.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Representation Learning

Baao Xie, Qiuyu Chen, Yunnan Wang, Zequn Zhang, Xin Jin, Wenjun Zeng

Disentangled representation learning (DRL) aims to identify and decompose underlying factors behind observations, thus facilitating data perception and generation. However, current DRL approaches often rely on the unrealistic assumption that semantic factors are statistically independent. In reality, these factors may exhibit correlations, which off-the-shelf solutions have yet to properly address. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a bidirectional weighted graph-based framework, to learn factorized attributes and their interrelations within complex data. Specifically, we propose a $\beta$-VAE based module to extract factors as the initial nodes of the graph, and leverage the multimodal large language model (MLLM) to discover and rank latent correlations, thereby updating the weighted edges. By integrating these complementary modules, our model successfully achieves fine-grained, practical and unsupervised disentanglement. Experiments demonstrate our method's superior performance in disentanglement and reconstruction. Furthermore, the model inherits enhanced interpretability and generalizability from MLLMs.

Statistical Methods

Ran Xie, Rina Barber, Emmanuel Candes

This paper introduces a boosted conformal procedure designed to tailor conformalized prediction intervals toward specific desired properties, such as enhanced conditional coverage or reduced interval length. We employ machine learning techniques, notably gradient boosting, to systematically improve upon a predefined conformity score function. This process is guided by carefully constructed loss functions that measure the deviation of prediction intervals from the targeted properties. The procedure operates post-training, relying solely on model predictions and without modifying the trained model (e.g., the deep network). Systematic experiments demonstrate that starting from conventional conformal methods, our boosted procedure achieves substantial improvements in reducing interval length and decreasing deviation from target conditional coverage.