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Privacy

Pratyush Maini, Hengrui Jia, Nicolas Papernot, Adam Dziedzic

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) in the real world has come with a rise in copyright cases against companies for training their models on unlicensed data from the internet. Recent works have presented methods to identify if individual text sequences were members of the model's training data, known as membership inference attacks (MIAs). We demonstrate that the apparent success of these MIAs is confounded by selecting non-members (text sequences not used for training) belonging to a different distribution from the members (e.g., temporally shifted recent Wikipedia articles compared with ones used to train the model). This distribution shift makes membership inference appear successful. However, most MIA methods perform no better than random guessing when discriminating between members and non-members from the same distribution (e.g., in this case, the same period of time).Even when MIAs work, we find that different MIAs succeed at inferring membership of samples from different distributions.Instead, we propose a new dataset inference method to accurately identify the datasets used to train large language models. This paradigm sits realistically in the modern-day copyright landscape, where authors claim that an LLM is trained over multiple documents (such as a book) written by them, rather than one particular paragraph.While dataset inference shares many of the challenges of membership inference, we solve it by selectively combining the MIAs that provide positive signal for a given distribution, and aggregating them to perform a statistical test on a given dataset. Our approach successfully distinguishes the train and test sets of different subsets of the Pile with statistically significant p-values $< 0.1$, without any false positives.

Theory · Statistics

Hao Yan, Keith Levin

Spectral methods are widely used to estimate eigenvectors of a low-rank signal matrix subject to noise. These methods use the leading eigenspace of an observed matrix to estimate this low-rank signal. Typically, the entrywise estimation error of these methods depends on the coherence of the low-rank signal matrix with respect to the standard basis. In this work, we present a novel method for eigenvector estimation that avoids this dependence on coherence. Assuming a rank-one signal matrix, under mild technical conditions, the entrywise estimation error of our method provably has no dependence on the coherence under Gaussian noise (i.e., in the spiked Wigner model), and achieves the optimal estimation rate up to logarithmic factors. Simulations demonstrate that our method performs well under non-Gaussian noise and that an extension of our method to the case of a rank-$r$ signal matrix has little to no dependence on the coherence. In addition, we derive new metric entropy bounds for rank-$r$ singular subspaces under $\ell_{2,\infty}$ distance, which may be of independent interest. We use these new bounds to improve the best known lower bound for rank-$r$ eigenspace estimation under $\ell_{2,\infty}$ distance.

Computer Vision

Jiewen Yang, Yiqun Lin, Bin Pu, Xiaomeng Li

Quantitative analysis of cardiac motion is crucial for assessing cardiac function. This analysis typically uses imaging modalities such as MRI and Echocardiograms that capture detailed image sequences throughout the heartbeat cycle. Previous methods predominantly focused on the analysis of image pairs lacking consideration of the motion dynamics and spatial variability. Consequently, these methods often overlook the long-term relationships and regional motion characteristic of cardiac. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the GPTrack, a novel unsupervised framework crafted to fully explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of cardiac motion. The GPTrack enhances motion tracking by employing the sequential Gaussian Process in the latent space and encoding statistics by spatial information at each time stamp, which robustly promotes temporal consistency and spatial variability of cardiac dynamics. Also, we innovatively aggregate sequential information in a bidirectional recursive manner, mimicking the behavior of diffeomorphic registration to better capture consistent long-term relationships of motions across cardiac regions such as the ventricles and atria. Our GPTrack significantly improves the precision of motion tracking in both 3D and 4D medical images while maintaining computational efficiency. The code is available at: https://github.com/xmed-lab/GPTrack.

Causality

Alexander Levis, Gabriel Loewinger, Francisco Pereira

Optogenetics is widely used to study the effects of neural circuit manipulation on behavior. However, the paucity of causal inference methodological work on this topic has resulted in analysis conventions that discard information, and constrain the scientific questions that can be posed. To fill this gap, we introduce a nonparametric causal inference framework for analyzing "closed-loop" designs, which use dynamic policies that assign treatment based on covariates. In this setting, standard methods can introduce bias and occlude causal effects. Building on the sequentially randomized experiments literature in causal inference, our approach extends history-restricted marginal structural models for dynamic regimes. In practice, our framework can identify a wide range of causal effects of optogenetics on trial-by-trial behavior, such as, fast/slow-acting, dose-response, additive/antagonistic, and floor/ceiling. Importantly, it does so without requiring negative controls, and can estimate how causal effect magnitudes evolve across time points. From another view, our work extends "excursion effect" methods---popular in the mobile health literature---to enable estimation of causal contrasts for treatment sequences greater than length one, in the presence of positivity violations. We derive rigorous statistical guarantees, enabling hypothesis testing of these causal effects. We demonstrate our approach on data from a recent study of dopaminergic activity on learning, and show how our method reveals relevant effects obscured in standard analyses.

Causality

Yixin Ren, Yewei Xia, Hao Zhang, Jihong Guan, Shuigeng Zhou

We propose a novel method to efficiently learn significant Fourier feature pairs for maximizing the power of Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion~(HSIC) based independence tests. We first reinterpret HSIC in the frequency domain, which reveals its limited discriminative power due to the inability to adapt to specific frequency-domain features under the current inflexible configuration. To remedy this shortcoming, we introduce a module of learnable Fourier features, thereby developing a new criterion. We then derive a finite sample estimate of the test power by modeling the behavior of the criterion, thus formulating an optimization objective for significant Fourier feature pairs learning. We show that this optimization objective can be computed in linear time (with respect to the sample size $n$), which ensures fast independence tests. We also prove the convergence property of the optimization objective and establish the consistency of the independence tests. Extensive empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real datasets validates our method's superiority in effectiveness and efficiency, particularly in handling high-dimensional data and dealing with large-scale scenarios.

Causality

Bowen Xu, Yiwen Huang, Chuan Hong, Shuangning Li, Molei Liu

Conditional independence tests are crucial across various disciplines in determining the independence of an outcome variable $Y$ from a treatment variable $X$, conditioning on a set of confounders $Z$. The Conditional Randomization Test (CRT) offers a powerful framework for such testing by assuming known distributions of $X \mid Z$; it controls the Type-I error exactly, allowing for the use of flexible, black-box test statistics. In practice, testing for conditional independence often involves using data from a source population to draw conclusions about a target population. This can be challenging due to covariate shift---differences in the distribution of $X$, $Z$, and surrogate variables, which can affect the conditional distribution of $Y \mid X, Z$---rendering traditional CRT approaches invalid. To address this issue, we propose a novel Covariate Shift Corrected Pearson Chi-squared Conditional Randomization (csPCR) test. This test adapts to covariate shifts by integrating importance weights and employing the control variates method to reduce variance in the test statistics and thus enhance power. Theoretically, we establish that the csPCR test controls the Type-I error asymptotically. Empirically, through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method not only maintains control over Type-I errors but also exhibits superior power, confirming its efficacy and practical utility in real-world scenarios where covariate shifts are prevalent. Finally, we apply our methodology to a real-world dataset to assess the impact of a COVID-19 treatment on the 90-day mortality rate among patients.

Statistical Methods

Guang Yang, Yuan Cao, Long Feng

Different from classical one-model-fits-all strategy, individualized models allow parameters to vary across samples and are gaining popularity in various fields, particularly in personalized medicine. Motivated by medical imaging analysis, this paper introduces a novel individualized modeling framework for matrix-valued data that does not require additional information on sample similarity for the individualized coefficients. Under our framework, the model individualization stems from an optimal internal relation map within the samples themselves. We refer to the proposed method as Attention boosted Individualized Regression, due to its close connections with the self-attention mechanism. Therefore, our approach provides a new interpretation for attention from the perspective of individualized modeling. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real brain MRI analysis using an ADNI dataset demonstrated the superior performance of our model.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Nicola Bariletto, Nhat Ho

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample performance due to distributional uncertainty. In the spirit of distributionally robust optimization, we propose a novel robust criterion by combining insights from Bayesian nonparametric (i.e., Dirichlet process) theory and a recent decision-theoretic model of smooth ambiguity-averse preferences. First, we highlight novel connections with standard regularized empirical risk minimization techniques, among which Ridge and LASSO regressions. Then, we theoretically demonstrate the existence of favorable finite-sample and asymptotic statistical guarantees on the performance of the robust optimization procedure. For practical implementation, we propose and study tractable approximations of the criterion based on well-known Dirichlet process representations. We also show that the smoothness of the criterion naturally leads to standard gradient-based numerical optimization. Finally, we provide insights into the workings of our method by applying it to a variety of tasks based on simulated and real datasets.

Learning Theory

Rayna Andreeva, Benjamin Dupuis, Rik Sarkar, Tolga Birdal, Umut Simsekli

We present a novel set of rigorous and computationally efficient topology-based complexity notions that exhibit a strong correlation with the generalization gap in modern deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs show remarkable generalization properties, yet the source of these capabilities remains elusive, defying the established statistical learning theory. Recent studies have revealed that properties of training trajectories can be indicative of generalization. Building on this insight, state-of-the-art methods have leveraged the topology of these trajectories, particularly their fractal dimension, to quantify generalization. Most existing works compute this quantity by assuming continuous- or infinite-time training dynamics, complicating the development of practical estimators capable of accurately predicting generalization without access to test data. In this paper, we respect the discrete-time nature of training trajectories and investigate the underlying topological quantities that can be amenable to topological data analysis tools. This leads to a new family of reliable topological complexity measures that provably bound the generalization error, eliminating the need for restrictive geometric assumptions. These measures are computationally friendly, enabling us to propose simple yet effective algorithms for computing generalization indices. Moreover, our flexible framework can be extended to different domains, tasks, and architectures. Our experimental results demonstrate that our new complexity measures exhibit a strong correlation with generalization error in industry-standard architectures such as transformers and deep graph networks. Our approach consistently outperforms existing topological bounds across a wide range of datasets, models, and optimizers, highlighting the practical relevance and effectiveness of our complexity measures.

Statistical Methods

Linus Jeary, Tom Kuipers, Mehran Hosseini, Nicola Paoletti

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are guaranteed to cover the (unknown) true test output with a user-specified probability. Nevertheless, this guarantee is violated when the data is subjected to adversarial attacks, which often result in a significant loss of coverage. Recently, several approaches have been put forward to recover CP guarantees in this setting. These approaches leverage variations of randomised smoothing to produce conservative sets which account for the effect of the adversarial perturbations. They are, however, limited in that they only support $\ell_2$-bounded perturbations and classification tasks. This paper introduces VRCP (Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction), a new framework that leverages recent neural network verification methods to recover coverage guarantees under adversarial attacks. Our VRCP method is the first to support perturbations bounded by arbitrary norms including $\ell_1$, $\ell_2$, and $\ell_\infty$, as well as regression tasks. We evaluate and compare our approach on image classification tasks (CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and TinyImageNet) and regression tasks for deep reinforcement learning environments. In every case, VRCP achieves above nominal coverage and yields significantly more efficient and informative prediction regions than the SotA.

Generative Models · Reasoning

Kaiqu Liang, Zixu Zhang, Jaime Fisac

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit advanced reasoning skills, enabling robots to comprehend natural language instructions and strategically plan high-level actions through proper grounding. However, LLM hallucination may result in robots confidently executing plans that are misaligned with user goals or even unsafe in critical scenarios. Additionally, inherent ambiguity in natural language instructions can introduce uncertainty into the LLM's reasoning and planning. We propose introspective planning, a systematic approach that guides LLMs to refine their own uncertainty in alignment with inherent task ambiguity. Our approach constructs a knowledge base containing introspective reasoning examples as post-hoc rationalizations of human-selected safe and compliant plans, which are retrieved during deployment. Evaluations on three tasks, including a new safe mobile manipulation benchmark, indicate that introspection substantially improves both compliance and safety over state-of-the-art LLM-based planning methods. Additionally, we empirically show that introspective planning, in combination with conformal prediction, achieves tighter confidence bounds, maintaining statistical success guarantees while minimizing unnecessary user clarification requests.

Theory · Statistics

Mathieu Even, Luca Ganassali, Jakob Maier, Laurent Massoulié

The Procrustes-Wasserstein problem consists in matching two high-dimensional point clouds in an unsupervised setting, and has many applications in natural language processing and computer vision. We consider a planted model with two datasets $X,Y$ that consist of $n$ datapoints in $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $Y$ is a noisy version of $X$, up to an orthogonal transformation and a relabeling of the data points. This setting is related to the graph alignment problem in geometric models.In this work, we focus on the euclidean transport cost between the point clouds as a measure of performance for the alignment. We first establish information-theoretic results, in the high ($d \gg \log n$) and low ($d \ll \log n$) dimensional regimes. We then study computational aspects and propose the ‘Ping-Pong algorithm', alternatively estimating the orthogonal transformation and the relabeling, initialized via a Franke-Wolfe convex relaxation. We give sufficient conditions for the method to retrieve the planted signal after one single step. We provide experimental results to compare the proposed approach with the state-of-the-art method of Grave et al. (2019).

Probabilistic Methods

Han Huang, Elchanan Mossel

We study the low-degree hardness of broadcasting on trees.Broadcasting on trees has been extensively studied in statistical physics, in computational biology in relation to phylogenetic reconstruction and in statistics and computer science in the context of block model inference, and as a simple data model for algorithms that may require depth for inference. The inference of the root can be carried by celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm which achieves Bayes-optimal performance. Despite the fact that this algorithm runs in linear time (using real operations), recent works indicated that this algorithm in fact requires high level of complexity. Moitra, Mossel and Sandon constructed a chain for which estimating the root better than random (for a typical input) is $NC1$ complete. Kohler and Mossel constructed chains such that for trees with $N$ leaves, recovering the root better than random requires a polynomial of degree $N^{\Omega(1)}$. Both works above asked if such complexity bounds hold in general below the celebrated {\em Kesten-Stigum} bound. In this work, we prove that this is indeed the case for low degree polynomials. We show that for the broadcast problem using any Markov chain on trees with $N$ leaves, below the Kesten Stigum bound, any $O(\log N)$ degree polynomial has vanishing correlation with the root. Our result is one of the first low-degree lower bound that is proved in a setting that is not based or easily reduced to a product measure.

Language · Generation

Mengyu Zheng, Hanting Chen, Tianyu Guo, Chong Zhu, Binfan Zheng, Chang Xu, Yunhe Wang

Tokenizers serve as crucial interfaces between models and linguistic data, substantially influencing the efficacy and precision of large language models (LLMs). Traditional tokenization methods often rely on static frequency-based statistics and are not inherently synchronized with LLM architectures, which may limit model performance. In this study, we propose a simple but effective method to learn tokenizers specifically engineered for seamless integration with LLMs. Initiating with a broad initial vocabulary, we refine our tokenizer by monitoring changes in the model’s perplexity during training, allowing for the selection of a tokenizer that is closely aligned with the model’s evolving dynamics. Through iterative refinement, we develop an optimized tokenizer. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate that this adaptive approach significantly enhances accuracy compared to conventional methods, maintaining comparable vocabulary sizes and affirming its potential to improve LLM functionality.

Statistical Methods

Sofia Ek, Dave Zachariah

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of external validity (aka. generalizability). In this paper we seek to use trial data to draw valid inferences about the outcome of a policy on the target population. Additional covariate data from the target population is used to model the sampling of individuals in the trial study. We develop a method that yields certifiably valid trial-based policy evaluations under any specified range of model miscalibrations. The method is nonparametric and the validity is assured even with finite samples. The certified policy evaluations are illustrated using both simulated and real data.

Optimization

Xixi Jia, Fangchen FENG, Deyu Meng, Defeng Sun

This paper focuses on the optimization of overparameterized, non-convex low-rank matrix sensing (LRMS)—an essential component in contemporary statistics and machine learning. Recent years have witnessed significant breakthroughs in first-order methods, such as gradient descent, for tackling this non-convex optimization problem. However, the presence of numerous saddle points often prolongs the time required for gradient descent to overcome these obstacles. Moreover, overparameterization can markedly decelerate gradient descent methods, transitioning its convergence rate from linear to sub-linear. In this paper, we introduce an approximated Gauss-Newton (AGN) method for tackling the non-convex LRMS problem. Notably, AGN incurs a computational cost comparable to gradient descent per iteration but converges much faster without being slowed down by saddle points. We prove that, despite the non-convexity of the objective function, AGN achieves Q-linear convergence from random initialization to the global optimal solution. The global Q-linear convergence of AGN represents a substantial enhancement over the convergence of the existing methods for the overparameterized non-convex LRMS. The code for this paper is available at \url{https://github.com/hsijiaxidian/AGN}.

Probabilistic Methods · Variational Inference

Julius Kunze, Daniel Severo, Jan-Willem van de Meent, James Townsend

We present a general method for lossless compression of unordered data structures, including multisets and graphs. It is a variant of shuffle coding that is many orders of magnitude faster than the original and enables 'one-shot' compression of single unordered objects. Our method achieves state-of-the-art compression rates on various large-scale network graphs at speeds of megabytes per second, efficiently handling even a multi-gigabyte plain graph with one billion edges. We release an implementation that can be easily adapted to different data types and statistical models.

Reinforcement Learning · Planning

Matthew Macfarlane, Edan Toledo, Donal Byrne, Paul Duckworth, Alexandre Laterre

Leveraging planning during learning and decision-making is central to the long-term development of intelligent agents. Recent works have successfully combined tree-based search methods and self-play learning mechanisms to this end. However, these methods typically face scaling challenges due to the sequential nature of their search. While practical engineering solutions can partly overcome this, they often result in a negative impact on performance. In this paper, we introduce SPO: Sequential Monte Carlo Policy Optimisation, a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm grounded within the Expectation Maximisation (EM) framework. We show that SPO provides robust policy improvement and efficient scaling properties. The sample-based search makes it directly applicable to both discrete and continuous action spaces without modifications. We demonstrate statistically significant improvements in performance relative to model-free and model-based baselines across both continuous and discrete environments. Furthermore, the parallel nature of SPO’s search enables effective utilisation of hardware accelerators, yielding favourable scaling laws.

Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning · Unsupervised and Semi-supervised Learning

Shengjie Niu, Lifan Lin, Jian Huang, Chao Wang

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) offers a robust framework for harnessing the potential of unannotated data. Traditionally, SSL mandates that all classes possess labeled instances. However, the emergence of open-world SSL (OwSSL) introduces a more practical challenge, wherein unlabeled data may encompass samples from unseen classes. This scenario leads to misclassification of unseen classes as known ones, consequently undermining classification accuracy. To overcome this challenge, this study revisits two methodologies from self-supervised and semi-supervised learning, self-labeling and consistency, tailoring them to address the OwSSL problem. Specifically, we propose an effective framework called _OwMatch_, combining conditional self-labeling and open-world hierarchical thresholding. Theoretically, we analyze the estimation of class distribution on unlabeled data through rigorous statistical analysis, thus demonstrating that OwMatch can ensure the unbiasedness of the label assignment estimator with reliability. Comprehensive empirical analyses demonstrate that our method yields substantial performance enhancements across both known and unknown classes in comparison to previous studies. Code is available at [https://github.com/niusj03/OwMatch](https://github.com/niusj03/OwMatch).

Trustworthy Machine Learning

Chao Chen, Chenghua Guo, Rufeng Chen, Guixiang Ma, Ming Zeng, Xiangwen Liao, Xi Zhang, Sihong Xie

To foster trust in machine learning models, explanations must be faithful and stable for consistent insights. Existing relevant works rely on the $\ell_p$ distance for stability assessment, which diverges from human perception. Besides, existing adversarial training (AT) associated with intensive computations may lead to an arms race. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel metric to assess the stability of top-$k$ salient features. We introduce R2ET which trains for stable explanation by efficient and effective regularizer,and analyze R2ET by multi-objective optimization to prove numerical and statistical stability of explanations. Moreover, theoretical connections between R2ET and certified robustness justify R2ET's stability in all attacks. Extensive experiments across various data modalities and model architectures show that R2ET achieves superior stability against stealthy attacks, and generalizes effectively across different explanation methods. The code can be found at https://github.com/ccha005/R2ET.