Financial volatility prediction is vital for indicating a company’s risk profile. Transcripts of companies’ earnings calls are important unstructured data sources to be utilized to access companies’ performance and risk profiles. However, current works ignore the role of financial metrics knowledge (such as EBIT, EPS, and ROI) in transcripts, which is crucial for understanding companies’ performance, and little consideration is given to integrating text and price information. In this work, we statistic common financial metrics and make a special dataset based on these metrics. Then, we introduce a knowledge-enhanced financial volatility prediction method (KeFVP) to inject knowledge of financial metrics into text comprehension by knowledge-enhanced adaptive pre-training (KePt) and effectively incorporating text and price information by introducing a conditional time series prediction module. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world public datasets, and the results indicate that KeFVP is effective and outperforms all the state-of-the-art methods.
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Recent advances in image and video creation, especially AI-based image synthesis, have led to the production of numerous visual scenes that exhibit a high level of abstractness and diversity. Consequently, Visual Storytelling (VST), a task that involves generating meaningful and coherent narratives from a collection of images, has become even more challenging and is increasingly desired beyond real-world imagery. While existing VST techniques, which typically use autoregressive decoders, have made significant progress, they suffer from low inference speed and are not well-suited for synthetic scenes. To this end, we propose a novel diffusion-based system DiffuVST, which models the generation of a series of visual descriptions as a single conditional denoising process. The stochastic and non-autoregressive nature of DiffuVST at inference time allows it to generate highly diverse narratives more efficiently. In addition, DiffuVST features a unique design with bi-directional text history guidance and multimodal adapter modules, which effectively improve inter-sentence coherence and image-to-text fidelity. Extensive experiments on the story generation task covering four fictional visual-story datasets demonstrate the superiority of DiffuVST over traditional autoregressive models in terms of both text quality and inference speed.
Model pruning methods reduce memory requirements and inference time of large-scale pre-trained language models after deployment. However, the actual pruning procedure is computationally intensive, involving repeated training and pruning until the required sparsity is achieved. This paper combines data pruning with movement pruning for Neural Machine Translation (NMT) to enable efficient fine-pruning. We design a dataset pruning strategy by leveraging cross-entropy scores of individual training instances. We conduct pruning experiments on the task of machine translation from Romanian-to-English and Turkish-to-English, and demonstrate that selecting hard-to-learn examples (top-k) based on training cross-entropy scores outperforms other dataset pruning methods. We empirically demonstrate that data pruning reduces the overall steps required for convergence and the training time of movement pruning. Finally, we perform a series of experiments to tease apart the role of training data during movement pruning and uncover new insights to understand the interplay between data and model pruning in the context of NMT.
Evaluating the factuality of long-form text generated by large language models (LMs) is non-trivial because (1) generations often contain a mixture of supported and unsupported pieces of information, making binary judgments of quality inadequate, and (2) human evaluation is time-consuming and costly. In this paper, we introduce FACTSCORE, a new evaluation that breaks a generation into a series of atomic facts and computes the percentage of atomic facts supported by a reliable knowledge source. We conduct an extensive human evaluation to obtain FACTSCOREs of people biographies generated by several state-of-the-art commercial LMs—InstructGPT, ChatGPT, and the retrieval-augmented PerplexityAI—and report new analysis demonstrating the need for such a fine-grained score (e.g., ChatGPT only achieves 58%). Since human evaluation is costly, we also introduce an automated model that estimates FACTSCORE using retrieval and a strong language model, with less than a 2% error rate. Finally, we use this automated metric to evaluate 6,500 generations from a new set of 13 recent LMs that would have cost $26K if evaluated by humans, with various findings: GPT-4 and ChatGPT are more factual than public models, and Vicuna and Alpaca are some of the best public models. FACTSCORE is available for public use via ‘pip install factscore‘.
Collaborative Generative AI: Integrating GPT-k for Efficient Editing in Text-to-Image Generation
PDF ↗The field of text-to-image (T2I) generation has garnered significant attention both within the research community and among everyday users. Despite the advancements of T2I models, a common issue encountered by users is the need for repetitive editing of input prompts in order to receive a satisfactory image, which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Given the demonstrated text generation power of large-scale language models, such as GPT-k, we investigate the potential of utilizing such models to improve the prompt editing process for T2I generation. We conduct a series of experiments to compare the common edits made by humans and GPT-k, evaluate the performance of GPT-k in prompting T2I, and examine factors that may influence this process. We found that GPT-k models focus more on inserting modifiers while humans tend to replace words and phrases, which includes changes to the subject matter. Experimental results show that GPT-k are more effective in adjusting modifiers rather than predicting spontaneous changes in the primary subject matters. Adopting the edit suggested by GPT-k models may reduce the percentage of remaining edits by 20-30%.
Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 have demonstrated a strong capability to generate coherent and contextually relevant text. However, amidst their successes, a crucial issue persists: their generated outputs still lack commonsense at times. Moreover, fine-tuning the entire LLM towards more commonsensical outputs is computationally expensive if not infeasible. In this paper, we present a computation-efficient framework that steers a frozen Pre-Trained Language Model (PTLM) towards more commonsensical generation (i.e., producing a plausible output that incorporates a list of concepts in a meaningful way). Specifically, we first construct a reference-free evaluator that assigns a sentence with a commonsensical score by grounding the sentence to a dynamic commonsense knowledge base from four different relational aspects. We then use the scorer as the oracle for commonsense knowledge, and extend the controllable generation method called NADO to train an auxiliary head that guides a fixed PTLM to better satisfy the oracle. We test our framework on a series of GPT-2-, Flan-T5-, and Alpaca-based language models (LMs) on two constrained concept-to-sentence benchmarks. Human evaluation results demonstrate that our method consistently leads to the most commonsensical outputs.
Increased focus on the computational efficiency of systems in natural language processing has motivated the design of efficient model architectures and improvements to underlying hardware accelerators. However, the resulting increases in computational throughput and reductions in floating point operations have not directly translated to improvements in wall-clock inference latency. We demonstrate that these discrepancies can be largely attributed to bottlenecks introduced by deep learning frameworks. We denote this phenomena as the framework tax, and observe that the disparity is growing as hardware speed increases over time. In this work, we examine this phenomena through a series of case studies analyzing the effects of model design decisions, framework paradigms, and hardware platforms on total model latency. Based on our findings, we provide actionable recommendations to researchers and practitioners aimed at narrowing the gap between efficient NLP model research and practice.
Predict the Future from the Past? On the Temporal Data Distribution Shift in Financial Sentiment Classifications
PDF ↗Temporal data distribution shift is prevalent in the financial text. How can a financial sentiment analysis system be trained in a volatile market environment that can accurately infer sentiment and be robust to temporal data distribution shifts? In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on the financial sentiment analysis system under temporal data distribution shifts using a real-world financial social media dataset that spans three years. We find that the fine-tuned models suffer from general performance degradation in the presence of temporal distribution shifts. Furthermore, motivated by the unique temporal nature of the financial text, we propose a novel method that combines out-of-distribution detection with time series modeling for temporal financial sentiment analysis. Experimental results show that the proposed method enhances the model’s capability to adapt to evolving temporal shifts in a volatile financial market.
Fine-tuning all parameters of large language models (LLMs) requires significant computational resources and is time-consuming. Recent parameter-efficient tuning methods such as Adapter tuning, Prefix tuning, and LoRA allow for updating a small subset of parameters in large language models. However, they can only save approximately 30% of the training memory requirements, due to the problem that gradient computation and backpropagation are still necessary for these methods. This paper proposes a novel parameter-efficient tuning method for LLMs without calculating their gradients. Leveraging the discernible similarities between the parameter-efficient modules of the same task learned by both large and small language models, we put forward a strategy for transferring the parameter-efficient modules, originally derived from small language models to much larger ones. To ensure a smooth and effective adaptation process, we further introduce a Bridge model to guarantee dimensional consistency while also stimulating a dynamic interaction between the models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method using the T5 and GPT-2 series of language models on the SuperGLUE benchmark. Our method achieves comparable performance to both fine-tuning and parameter-efficient tuning on large language models without needing gradient-based optimization. Additionally, our method achieves up to 5.7x memory reduction compared to parameter-efficient tuning.
Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series
Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and superior performance. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/aikunyi/FreTS.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
Many modern applications of online changepoint detection require the ability to process high-frequency observations, sometimes with limited available computational resources. Online algorithms for detecting a change in mean often involve using a moving window, or specifying the expected size of change. Such choices affect which changes the algorithms have most power to detect. We introduce an algorithm, Functional Online CuSUM (FOCuS), which is equivalent to running these earlier methods simultaneously for all sizes of windows, or all possible values for the size of change. Our theoretical results give tight bounds on the expected computational cost per iteration of FOCuS, with this being logarithmic in the number of observations. We show how FOCuS can be applied to a number of different changes in mean scenarios, and demonstrate its practical utility through its state-of-the-art performance at detecting anomalous behaviour in computer server data.
Miscellaneous Aspects of Machine Learning/Sequential, Network, and Time Series Modeling
The theory of Koopman operators allows to deploy non-parametric machine learning algorithms to predict and analyze complex dynamical systems.Estimators such as principal component regression (PCR) or reduced rank regression (RRR) in kernel spaces can be shown to provably learn Koopman operators from finite empirical observations of the system's time evolution. Scaling these approaches to very long trajectories is a challenge and requires introducing suitable approximations to make computations feasible. In this paper, we boost the efficiency of different kernel-based Koopman operator estimators using random projections (sketching).We derive, implement and test the new ``sketched'' estimators with extensive experiments on synthetic and large-scale molecular dynamics datasets. Further, we establish non asymptotic error bounds giving a sharp characterization of the trade-offs between statistical learning rates and computational efficiency.Our empirical and theoretical analysis shows that the proposed estimators provide a sound and efficient way to learn large scale dynamical systems.In particular our experiments indicate that the proposed estimators retain the same accuracy of PCR or RRR, while being much faster.
Probabilistic Methods/Bayesian Models and Methods
Sparse deep learning has become a popular technique for improving the performance of deep neural networks in areas such as uncertainty quantification, variable selection, and large-scale network compression. However, most existing research has focused on problems where the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and there has been little work on the problems where the observations are dependent, such as time series data and sequential data in natural language processing. This paper aims to address this gap by studying the theory for sparse deep learning with dependent data. We show that sparse recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can be consistently estimated, and their predictions are asymptotically normally distributed under appropriate assumptions, enabling the prediction uncertainty to be correctly quantified. Our numerical results show that sparse deep learning outperforms state-of-the-art methods, such as conformal predictions, in prediction uncertainty quantification for time series data. Furthermore, our results indicate that the proposed method can consistently identify the autoregressive order for time series data and outperform existing methods in large-scale model compression. Our proposed method has important practical implications in fields such as finance, healthcare, and energy, where both accurate point estimates and prediction uncertainty quantification are of concern.
Theory/Probabilistic Methods
We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used inofficial CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules at [this link](http://github.com/aangelopoulos/conformal-time-series).
Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series
Data-driven machine learning approaches are being increasingly used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). They have shown particularly striking successes when training an operator, which takes as input a PDE in some family, and outputs its solution. However, the architectural design space, especially given structural knowledge of the PDE family of interest, is still poorly understood. We seek to remedy this gap by studying the benefits of weight-tied neural network architectures for steady-state PDEs. To achieve this, we first demonstrate that the solution of most steady-state PDEs can be expressed as a fixed point of a non-linear operator. Motivated by this observation, we propose FNO-DEQ, a deep equilibrium variant of the FNO architecture that directly solves for the solution of a steady-state PDE as the infinite-depth fixed point of an implicit operator layer using a black-box root solver and differentiates analytically through this fixed point resulting in $\mathcal{O}(1)$ training memory. Our experiments indicate that FNO-DEQ-based architectures outperform FNO-based baselines with $4\times$ the number of parameters in predicting the solution to steady-state PDEs such as Darcy Flow and steady-state incompressible Navier-Stokes. Finally, we show FNO-DEQ is more robust when trained with datasets with more noisy observations than the FNO-based baselines, demonstrating the benefits of using appropriate inductive biases in architectural design for different neural network based PDE solvers. Further, we show a universal approximation result that demonstrates that FNO-DEQ can approximate the solution to any steady-state PDE that can be written as a fixed point equation.
Deep Learning/Attention Mechanisms
Transformer-based architectures have recently exhibited remarkable successes across different domains beyond just powering large language models. However, existing approaches typically focus on predictive accuracy and computational cost, largely ignoring certain other practical issues such as robustness to contaminated samples. In this paper, by re-interpreting the self-attention mechanism as a non-parametric kernel density estimator, we adapt classical robust kernel density estimation methods to develop novel classes of transformers that are resistant to adversarial attacks and data contamination. We first propose methods that down-weight outliers in RKHS when computing the self-attention operations. We empirically show that these methods produce improved performance over existing state-of-the-art methods, particularly on image data under adversarial attacks. Then we leverage the median-of-means principle to obtain another efficient approach that results in noticeably enhanced performance and robustness on language modeling and time series classification tasks. Our methods can be combined with existing transformers to augment their robust properties, thus promising to impact a wide variety of applications.
Deep Learning/Sequential Models, Time series
Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real world applications, the event data typically comes in a streaming manner, where the distribution of the patterns may shift over time. Under the privacy and memory constraints commonly seen in real scenarios, how to continuously monitor a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-investigated problem. In this work, we approach this problem by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which aims to enable a model to continuously learn a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting. While CL for event sequence is less well studied, we present a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPP, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. In our proposed framework, prompts are small learnable parameters, maintained in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP so that the model is properly instructed to learn event streams arriving sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We formalize a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently sets state-of-the-art performance across two real user behavior datasets.
Deep Learning/Generative Models and Autoencoders
Accessible high-quality data is the bread and butter of machine learning research, and the demand for data has exploded as larger and more advanced ML models are built across different domains. Yet, real data often contain sensitive information, are subject to various biases, and are costly to acquire, which compromise their quality and accessibility. Synthetic data have thus emerged as a complement to, sometimes even a replacement for, real data for ML training. However, the landscape of synthetic data research has been fragmented due to the diverse range of data modalities, such as tabular, time series, and images, and the wide array of use cases, including privacy preservation, fairness considerations, and data augmentation. This fragmentation poses practical challenges when comparing and selecting synthetic data generators in for different problem settings. To this end, we develop Synthcity, an open-source Python library that allows researchers and practitioners to perform one-click benchmarking of synthetic data generators across data modalities and use cases. Beyond benchmarking, Synthcity serves as a centralized toolkit for accessing cutting-edge data generators. In addition, Synthcity’s flexible plug-in style API makes it easy to incorporate additional data generators into the framework. Using examples of tabular data generation and data augmentation, we illustrate the general applicability of Synthcity, and the insight one can obtain.
Probabilistic Methods/Structure Learning
Outstanding achievements of graph neural networks for spatiotemporal time series analysis show that relational constraints introduce an effective inductive bias into neural forecasting architectures. Often, however, the relational information characterizing the underlying data-generating process is unavailable and the practitioner is left with the problem of inferring from data which relational graph to use in the subsequent processing stages. We propose novel, principled - yet practical - probabilistic score-based methods that learn the relational dependencies as distributions over graphs while maximizing end-to-end the performance at task. The proposed graph learning framework is based on consolidated variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo score-based gradient estimation, is theoretically grounded, and, as we show, effective in practice. In this paper, we focus on the time series forecasting problem and show that, by tailoring the gradient estimators to the graph learning problem, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art performance while controlling the sparsity of the learned graph and the computational scalability. We empirically assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that the proposed solution can be used as a stand-alone graph identification procedure as well as a graph learning component of an end-to-end forecasting architecture.
Applications/Time Series
Many unsupervised methods have recently been proposed for multivariate time series anomaly detection. However, existing works mainly focus on stable data yet often omit the drift generated from non-stationary environments, which may lead to numerous false alarms. We propose **D**ynamic **D**ecomposition with **D**iffusion **R**econstruction (D$^3$R), a novel anomaly detection network for real-world unstable data to fill the gap. D$^3$R tackles the drift via decomposition and reconstruction. In the decomposition procedure, we utilize data-time mix-attention to dynamically decompose long-period multivariate time series, overcoming the limitation of the local sliding window. The information bottleneck is critical yet difficult to determine in the reconstruction procedure. To avoid retraining once the bottleneck changes, we control it externally by noise diffusion and directly reconstruct the polluted data. The whole model can be trained end-to-end. Extensive experiments on various real-world datasets demonstrate that D$^3$R significantly outperforms existing methods, with a 11% average relative improvement over the previous SOTA models.