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Theory · Reinforcement Learning and Planning

Philip Amortila, Dylan J Foster, Nan Jiang, Akshay Krishnamurthy, Zak Mhammedi

Real-world applications of reinforcement learning often involve environments where agents operate on complex, high-dimensional observations, but the underlying (``latent'') dynamics are comparatively simple. However, beyond restrictive settings such as tabular latent dynamics, the fundamental statistical requirements and algorithmic principles for *reinforcement learning under latent dynamics* are poorly understood. This paper addresses the question of reinforcement learning under *general latent dynamics* from a statistical and algorithmic perspective. On the statistical side, our main negativeresult shows that *most* well-studied settings for reinforcement learning with function approximation become intractable when composed with rich observations; we complement this with a positive result, identifying *latent pushforward coverability* as ageneral condition that enables statistical tractability. Algorithmically, we develop provably efficient *observable-to-latent* reductions ---that is, reductions that transform an arbitrary algorithm for the latent MDP into an algorithm that can operate on rich observations--- in two settings: one where the agent has access to hindsightobservations of the latent dynamics (Lee et al., 2023) and onewhere the agent can estimate *self-predictive* latent models (Schwarzer et al., 2020). Together, our results serve as a first step toward a unified statistical and algorithmic theory forreinforcement learning under latent dynamics.

Language · Knowledge

Changyi Xiao, Yixin Cao

Knowledge graph completion (KGC) can be framed as a 3-order binary tensor completion task. Tensor decomposition-based (TDB) models have demonstrated strong performance in KGC. In this paper, we provide a summary of existing TDB models and derive a general form for them, serving as a foundation for further exploration of TDB models. Despite the expressiveness of TDB models, they are prone to overfitting. Existing regularization methods merely minimize the norms of embeddings to regularize the model, leading to suboptimal performance. Therefore, we propose a novel regularization method for TDB models that addresses this limitation. The regularization is applicable to most TDB models and ensures tractable computation. Our method minimizes the norms of intermediate variables involved in the different ways of computing the predicted tensor. To support our regularization method, we provide a theoretical analysis that proves its effect in promoting low trace norm of the predicted tensor to reduce overfitting. Finally, we conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of our regularization technique as well as the reliability of our theoretical analysis. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/IVR.

Causality

Yikang Chen, Dehui du, Lili Tian

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the variance minimization problem into a conditional distribution learning problem, enabling its integration with existing conditional distribution modeling approaches. We validate the theoretical results through experiments under various types and settings of Structural Causal Models (SCMs) and demonstrate the outperformance on counterfactual estimation tasks compared to other existing importance sampling methods. We also explore the impact of injecting structural prior knowledge (counterfactual Markov boundaries) on the results. Finally, we apply this method to identifiable proxy SCMs and demonstrate the unbiasedness of the estimates, empirically illustrating the applicability of the method to practical scenarios.

Xuejie Liu, Anji Liu, Guy Van den Broeck, Yitao Liang

A popular paradigm for offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks is to first fit the offline trajectories to a sequence model, and then prompt the model for actions that lead to high expected return. In addition to obtaining accurate sequence models, this paper highlights that tractability, the ability to exactly and efficiently answer various probabilistic queries, plays an important role in offline RL. Specifically, due to the fundamental stochasticity from the offline data-collection policies and the environment dynamics, highly non-trivial conditional/constrained generation is required to elicit rewarding actions. While it is still possible to approximate such queries, we observe that such crude estimates undermine the benefits brought by expressive sequence models. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes Trifle (Tractable Inference for Offline RL), which leverages modern tractable generative models to bridge the gap between good sequence models and high expected returns at evaluation time. Empirically, Trifle achieves $7$ state-of-the-art scores and the highest average scores in $9$ Gym-MuJoCo benchmarks against strong baselines. Further, Trifle significantly outperforms prior approaches in stochastic environments and safe RL tasks with minimum algorithmic modifications.

Probabilistic Methods · Tractable Models

Gennaro Gala, Cassio de Campos, Antonio Vergari, Erik Quaeghebeur

Probabilistic integral circuits (PICs) have been recently introduced as probabilistic models enjoying the key ingredient behind expressive generative models: continuous latent variables (LVs). PICs are symbolic computational graphs defining continuous LV models as hierarchies of functions that are summed and multiplied together, or integrated over some LVs. They are tractable if LVs can be analytically integrated out, otherwise they can be approximated by tractable probabilistic circuits (PC) encoding a hierarchical numerical quadrature process, called QPCs.So far, only tree-shaped PICs have been explored, and training them via numerical quadrature requires memory-intensive processing at scale. In this paper, we address these issues, and present: (i) a pipeline for building DAG-shaped PICs out of arbitrary variable decompositions, (ii) a procedure for training PICs using tensorized circuit architectures, and (iii) neural functional sharing techniques to allow scalable training. In extensive experiments, we showcase the effectiveness of functional sharing and the superiority of QPCs over traditional PCs.

Interpretability

Justin Kang, Yigit Efe Erginbas, Landon Butler, Ramtin Pedarsani, Kannan Ramchandran

One of the key challenges in machine learning is to find interpretable representations of learned functions. The Möbius transform is essential for this purpose, as its coefficients correspond to unique *importance scores* for *sets of input variables*. This transform is closely related to widely used game-theoretic notions of importance like the *Shapley* and *Bhanzaf value*, but it also captures crucial higher-order interactions. Although computing the Möbius Transform of a function with $n$ inputs involves $2^n$ coefficients, it becomes tractable when the function is *sparse* and of *low-degree* as we show is the case for many real-world functions. Under these conditions, the complexity of the transform computation is significantly reduced. When there are $K$ non-zero coefficients, our algorithm recovers the Möbius transform in $O(Kn)$ samples and $O(Kn^2)$ time asymptotically under certain assumptions, the first non-adaptive algorithm to do so. We also uncover a surprising connection between group testing and the Möbius transform. For functions where all interactions involve at most $t$ inputs, we use group testing results to compute the Möbius transform with $O(Kt\log n)$ sample complexity and $O(K\mathrm{poly}(n))$ time. A robust version of this algorithm withstands noise and maintains this complexity. This marks the first $n$ sub-linear query complexity, noise-tolerant algorithm for the Möbius transform. While our algorithms are conceptualized in an idealized setting, they indicate that the Möbius transform is a potent tool for interpreting deep learning models.

Probabilistic Methods · Bayesian Models and Methods

Antoine Picard, Roman Moscoviz, Benjamin Guedj

PAC-Bayes learning is a comprehensive setting for (i) studying the generalisation ability of learning algorithms and (ii) deriving new learning algorithms by optimising a generalisation bound. However, optimising generalisation bounds might not always be viable for tractable or computational reasons, or both. For example, iteratively querying the empirical risk might prove computationally expensive.In response, we introduce a novel principled strategy for building an iterative learning algorithm via the optimisation of a sequence of surrogate training objectives, inherited from PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds. The key argument is to replace the empirical risk (seen as a function of hypotheses) in the generalisation bound by its projection onto a constructible low dimensional functional space: these projections can be queried much more efficiently than the initial risk. On top of providing that generic recipe for learning via surrogate PAC-Bayes bounds, we (i) contribute theoretical results establishing that iteratively optimising our surrogates implies the optimisation of the original generalisation bounds, (ii) instantiate this strategy to the framework of meta-learning, introducing a meta-objective offering a closed form expression for meta-gradient, (iii) illustrate our approach with numerical experiments inspired by an industrial biochemical problem.

Neuroscience, Cognitive Science

Matthijs Pals, A Erdem Sağtekin, Felix Pei, Manuel Gloeckler, Jakob H Macke

A central aim in computational neuroscience is to relate the activity of large populations of neurons to an underlying dynamical system. Models of these neural dynamics should ideally be both interpretable and fit the observed data well. Low-rank recurrent neural networks (RNNs) exhibit such interpretability by having tractable dynamics. However, it is unclear how to best fit low-rank RNNs to data consisting of noisy observations of an underlying stochastic system. Here, we propose to fit stochastic low-rank RNNs with variational sequential Monte Carlo methods. We validate our method on several datasets consisting of both continuous and spiking neural data, where we obtain lower dimensional latent dynamics than current state of the art methods. Additionally, for low-rank models with piecewise linear nonlinearities, we show how to efficiently identify all fixed points in polynomial rather than exponential cost in the number of units, making analysis of the inferred dynamics tractable for large RNNs. Our method both elucidates the dynamical systems underlying experimental recordings and provides a generative model whose trajectories match observed variability.

Data-centric AI · Data-centric AI methods and tools

Harit Vishwakarma, Yi Chen, Sui Jiet Tay, Satya Sai Srinath Namburi, Frederic Sala, Ramya Korlakai Vinayak

Auto-labeling is an important family of techniques that produce labeled training sets with minimum manual annotation. A prominent variant, threshold-based auto-labeling (TBAL), works by finding thresholds on a model's confidence scores above which it can accurately automatically label unlabeled data. However, many models are known to produce overconfident scores, leading to poor TBAL performance. While a natural idea is to apply off-the-shelf calibration methods to alleviate the overconfidence issue, we show that such methods fall short. Rather than experimenting with ad-hoc choices of confidence functions, we propose a framework for studying the optimal TBAL confidence function. We develop a tractable version of the framework to obtain Colander (Confidence functions for Efficient and Reliable Auto-labeling), a new post-hoc method specifically designed to maximize performance in TBAL systems. We perform an extensive empirical evaluation of Colander and compare it against methods designed for calibration. Colander achieves up to 60% improvement on coverage over the baselines while maintaining error level below 5% and using the same amount of labeled data.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Nicola Bariletto, Nhat Ho

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample performance due to distributional uncertainty. In the spirit of distributionally robust optimization, we propose a novel robust criterion by combining insights from Bayesian nonparametric (i.e., Dirichlet process) theory and a recent decision-theoretic model of smooth ambiguity-averse preferences. First, we highlight novel connections with standard regularized empirical risk minimization techniques, among which Ridge and LASSO regressions. Then, we theoretically demonstrate the existence of favorable finite-sample and asymptotic statistical guarantees on the performance of the robust optimization procedure. For practical implementation, we propose and study tractable approximations of the criterion based on well-known Dirichlet process representations. We also show that the smoothness of the criterion naturally leads to standard gradient-based numerical optimization. Finally, we provide insights into the workings of our method by applying it to a variety of tasks based on simulated and real datasets.

Optimization · Large Scale, Parallel and Distributed

Hao Zhang, Chenglin Li, Nuowen Kan, Ziyang Zheng, Wenrui Dai, Junni Zou, Hongkai Xiong

Most of existing federated learning (FL) formulation is treated as a point-estimate of models, inherently prone to overfitting on scarce client-side data with overconfident decisions. Though Bayesian inference can alleviate this issue, a direct posterior inference at clients may result in biased local posterior estimates due to data heterogeneity, leading to a sub-optimal global posterior. From an information-theoretic perspective, we propose FedMDMI, a federated posterior inference framework based on model-data mutual information (MI). Specifically, a global model-data MI term is introduced as regularization to enforce the global model to learn essential information from the heterogeneous local data, alleviating the bias caused by data heterogeneity and hence enhancing generalization. To make this global MI tractable, we decompose it into local MI terms at the clients, converting the global objective with MI regularization into several locally optimizable objectives based on local data. For these local objectives, we further show that the optimal local posterior is a Gibbs posterior, which can be efficiently sampled with stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics methods. Finally, at the server, we approximate sampling from the global Gibbs posterior by simply averaging samples from the local posteriors. Theoretical analysis provides a generalization bound for FL w.r.t. the model-data MI, which, at different levels of regularization, represents a federated version of the bias-variance trade-off. Experimental results demonstrate a better generalization behavior with better calibrated uncertainty estimates of FedMDMI.

Optimization · Optimization and Learning under Uncertainty

Michael Yao, Yimeng Zeng, Hamsa Bastani, Jacob Gardner, James Gee, Osbert Bastani

Offline model-based optimization seeks to optimize against a learned surrogate model without querying the true oracle objective function during optimization. Such tasks are commonly encountered in protein design, robotics, and clinical medicine where evaluating the oracle function is prohibitively expensive. However, inaccurate surrogate model predictions are frequently encountered along offline optimization trajectories. To address this limitation, we propose *generative adversarial model-based optimization* using **adaptive source critic regularization (aSCR)**—a task- and optimizer- agnostic framework for constraining the optimization trajectory to regions of the design space where the surrogate function is reliable. We propose a computationally tractable algorithm to dynamically adjust the strength of this constraint, and show how leveraging aSCR with standard Bayesian optimization outperforms existing methods on a suite of offline generative design tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/michael-s-yao/gabo.

Theory · Active Learning and Interactive Learning

Sebastiaan De Peuter, Shibei Zhu, Yujia Guo, Andrew Howes, Samuel Kaski

Preference learning methods make use of models of human choice in order to infer the latent utilities that underlie human behavior. However, accurate modeling of human choice behavior is challenging due to a range of context effects that arise from how humans contrast and evaluate options. Cognitive science has proposed several models that capture these intricacies but, due to their intractable nature, work on preference learning has, in practice, had to rely on tractable but simplified variants of the well-known Bradley-Terry model. In this paper, we take one state-of-the-art intractable cognitive model and propose a tractable surrogate that is suitable for deployment in preference learning. We then introduce a mechanism for fitting the surrogate to human data and extend it to account for data that cannot be explained by the original cognitive model. We demonstrate on large-scale human data that this model produces significantly better inferences on static and actively elicited data than existing Bradley-Terry variants. We further show in simulation that when using this model for preference learning, we can significantly improve utility in a range of real-world tasks.

Time Series

Wenjie Mei, Dongzhe Zheng, Shihua Li

Neural ODEs (NODEs) are continuous-time neural networks (NNs) that can process data without the limitation of time intervals. They have advantages in learning and understanding the evolution of complex real dynamics. Many previous works have focused on NODEs in concise forms, while numerous physical systems taking straightforward forms in fact belong to their more complex quasi-classes, thus appealing to a class of general NODEs with high scalability and flexibility to model those systems. This however may result in intricate nonlinear properties. In this paper, we introduce ControlSynth Neural ODEs (CSODEs). We show that despite their highly nonlinear nature, convergence can be guaranteed via tractable linear inequalities. In the composition of CSODEs, we introduce an extra control term for learning the potential simultaneous capture of dynamics at different scales, which could be particularly useful for partial differential equation-formulated systems. Finally, we compare several representative NNs with CSODEs on important physical dynamics under the inductive biases of CSODEs, and illustrate that CSODEs have better learning and predictive abilities in these settings.

Probabilistic Methods · Tractable Models

Shivvrat Arya, Tahrima Rahman, Vibhav Gogate

We propose a novel neural networks based approach to efficiently answer arbitrary Most Probable Explanation (MPE) queries—a well-known NP-hard task—in large probabilistic models such as Bayesian and Markov networks, probabilistic circuits, and neural auto-regressive models. By arbitrary MPE queries, we mean that there is no predefined partition of variables into evidence and non-evidence variables. The key idea is to distill all MPE queries over a given probabilistic model into a neural network and then use the latter for answering queries, eliminating the need for time-consuming inference algorithms that operate directly on the probabilistic model. We improve upon this idea by incorporating inference-time optimization with self-supervised loss to iteratively improve the solutions and employ a teacher-student framework that provides a better initial network, which in turn, helps reduce the number of inference-time optimization steps. The teacher network utilizes a self-supervised loss function optimized for getting the exact MPE solution, while the student network learns from the teacher's near-optimal outputs through supervised loss. We demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of our approach on various datasets and a broad class of probabilistic models, showcasing its practical effectiveness.

Generative Models

Milena Gazdieva, Arip Asadulaev, Evgeny Burnaev, Aleksandr Korotin

While the continuous Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT) field has been actively developing in recent years, it became evident that the classic EOT problem is prone to different issues like the sensitivity to outliers and imbalance of classes in the source and target measures. This fact inspired the development of solvers that deal with the *unbalanced* EOT (UEOT) problem $-$ the generalization of EOT allowing for mitigating the mentioned issues by relaxing the marginal constraints. Surprisingly, it turns out that the existing solvers are either based on heuristic principles or heavy-weighted with complex optimization objectives involving several neural networks. We address this challenge and propose a novel theoretically-justified, lightweight, unbalanced EOT solver. Our advancement consists of developing a novel view on the optimization of the UEOT problem yielding tractable and a non-minimax optimization objective. We show that combined with a light parametrization recently proposed in the field our objective leads to a fast, simple, and effective solver which allows solving the continuous UEOT problem in minutes on CPU. We prove that our solver provides a universal approximation of UEOT solutions and obtain its generalization bounds. We give illustrative examples of the solver's performance.

Sanyam Kapoor, Nate Gruver, Manley Roberts, Katie Collins, Arka Pal, Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller, Samuel Dooley, Micah Goldblum, Andrew Wilson

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Fairness

Kenny Peng, Nikhil Garg

Algorithmic monoculture arises when many decision-makers rely on the same algorithm to evaluate applicants. An emerging body of work investigates possible harms of this kind of homogeneity, but has been limited by the challenge of incorporating market effects in which the preferences and behavior of many applicants and decision-makers jointly interact to determine outcomes.Addressing this challenge, we introduce a tractable theoretical model of algorithmic monoculture in a two-sided matching market with many participants. We use the model to analyze outcomes under monoculture (when decision-makers all evaluate applicants using a common algorithm) and under polyculture (when decision-makers evaluate applicants independently). All else equal, monoculture (1) selects less-preferred applicants when noise is well-behaved, (2) matches more applicants to their top choice, though individual applicants may be worse off depending on their value to decision-makers and risk tolerance, and (3) is more robust to disparities in the number of applications submitted.

Time Series

Manuel Brenner, Christoph Jürgen Hemmer, Zahra Monfared, Daniel Durstewitz

Dynamical systems theory (DST) is fundamental for many areas of science and engineering. It can provide deep insights into the behavior of systems evolving in time, as typically described by differential or recursive equations. A common approach to facilitate mathematical tractability and interpretability of DS models involves decomposing nonlinear DS into multiple linear DS combined by switching manifolds, i.e. piecewise linear (PWL) systems. PWL models are popular in engineering and a frequent choice in mathematics for analyzing the topological properties of DS. However, hand-crafting such models is tedious and only possible for very low-dimensional scenarios, while inferring them from data usually gives rise to unnecessarily complex representations with very many linear subregions. Here we introduce Almost-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (AL-RNNs) which automatically and robustly produce most parsimonious PWL representations of DS from time series data, using as few PWL nonlinearities as possible. AL-RNNs can be efficiently trained with any SOTA algorithm for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), and naturally give rise to a symbolic encoding of the underlying DS that provably preserves important topological properties. We show that for the Lorenz and Rössler systems, AL-RNNs derive, in a purely data-driven way, the known topologically minimal PWL representations of the corresponding chaotic attractors. We further illustrate on two challenging empirical datasets that interpretable symbolic encodings of the dynamics can be achieved, tremendously facilitating mathematical and computational analysis of the underlying systems.

Deep Learning · Representation Learning

Maxime Darrin, Philippe Formont, Ismail Ayed, Jackie CK Cheung, Pablo Piantanida

Embedders play a central role in machine learning, projecting any object into numerical representations that can, in turn, be leveraged to perform various downstream tasks. The evaluation of embedding models typically depends on domain-specific empirical approaches utilizing downstream tasks, primarily because of the lack of a standardized framework for comparison. However, acquiring adequately large and representative datasets for conducting these assessments is not always viable and can prove to be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we present a unified approach to evaluate embedders. First, we establish theoretical foundations for comparing embedding models, drawing upon the concepts of sufficiency and informativeness. We then leverage these concepts to devise a tractable comparison criterion (information sufficiency), leading to a task-agnostic and self-supervised ranking procedure. We demonstrate experimentally that our approach aligns closely with the capability of embedding models to facilitate various downstream tasks in both natural language processing and molecular biology. This effectively offers practitioners a valuable tool for prioritizing model trials.